Posts tagged ‘Economic growth’

20/11/2014

China’s Water Supply Is Contaminated and Shrinking – Businessweek

China’s hazardous smog is an in-your-face and choke-your-lungs kind of problem—hard to miss, particularly when air quality soars to severely polluted levels, as it did in Beijing today (Nov.19). But an equally dire environmental threat is the alarmingly low quality of China’s water resources.

A polluted canal in Beijing

That was highlighted in an investigative report on China’s water crisis in the official Xinhua News Agency yesterday. Sixty percent of China’s groundwater, monitored at 4,778 sites across the country, is either “bad” or “very bad,” according to a survey by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Xinhua reported. Meanwhile, more than half, or 17 of China’s 31 major freshwater lakes, are polluted, at least slightly or moderately.

The report said that 300 of China’s 657 major cities also face water shortages, according to the standard set by the United Nations. A particularly severe problem is the dearth of water in the North China region, including the cities of Beijing and Tianjin and the surrounding province of Hebei. Water per capita in that area amounts to only 286 cubic meters annually, much less than the 500 cubic meter minimum. Below that minimum is classified as “absolute scarcity.” (Xinhua says under 1,000 cubic meters per capita classifies as “scarcity.”)

With rapid urbanization an official economic priority, fears are that China’s crisis of degraded and inadequate water supplies could worsen. Meanwhile, about 3.3 million hectares of farmland—an area the size of Belgium—has become too contaminated to grow crops, China’s authorities revealed late last year.

“Experts blamed some local governments and businesses for recklessly pursuing quick money by developing projects that devoured resources and caused serious pollution,” the China Daily reported today, citing the Xinhua article on water scarcity.

via China’s Water Supply Is Contaminated and Shrinking – Businessweek.

19/11/2014

‘Exceptionally Low’ Female Labor Participation Holding Back India’s Economy – India Real Time – WSJ

Women’s empowerment hasn’t featured prominently so far in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s program for economic revival. It probably should, according to the latest overview of the Indian economy by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The report, released Wednesday by the Paris-based club of rich nations, suggests that enlarging economic opportunities for women could be a new “growth engine” for India, accelerating GDP growth by around two percentage points each year. India has narrowed the gender gap in health and education, the report says. But Indian women still lag far behind men when it comes to participation in both the formal and informal economies.

Just a third of working-age women in India were employed or looking for a job in 2010, a lower share by some distance than in Brazil (around 65%), China (75%), Indonesia (55%) or South Africa (45%). The figure for Indian men was over 80%.

More strikingly, female labor participation in India has actually fallen over the last decade: According to Indian-government data, the working-age populations of both men and women increased by around 100 million between 2000 and 2012. But the number of women employed or seeking employment only grew by 7 million over that period, whereas the number of men in those categories expanded by 70 million. Just a quarter of the increase in the number of women outside the labor force was accounted for by more women staying in school.

Indian women who do work don’t have great jobs, the OECD report shows. More than a third are unpaid helpers, as opposed to just 11% of working men. Women are also overrepresented in low-productivity agriculture and traditional, small-scale manufacturing. Only 6% of employed women get formal benefits like pensions or maternity leave. There aren’t many female entrepreneurs. (The report notes, though, that there aren’t many entrepreneurs in India, period, relative to other countries at the same stage of development.)

Illiterate women are more likely to be in the labor force than better-educated women, though participation is higher among high-school graduates. The relationship between female participation and income is similar: The richer a woman’s household is, the less likely she is to work.

Those patterns suggest “exceptionally low” female labor participation isn’t fully explained by simple measures of worker productivity.

On a 2012 OECD index of social obstacles to gender equality, India scores poorly relative to other large developing countries. Families’ preference for sons is stronger. Violence against women is more common. Women’s access to credit, land and property is more restricted. Marriage and inheritance laws favor men more.

Other social norms matter, too. As men’s incomes have risen over the last decade, their wives may prefer housework to a low-paying job, the report suggests. One study cited by the report finds that a family’s social status is considered higher if the woman stays at home.

via ‘Exceptionally Low’ Female Labor Participation Holding Back India’s Economy – India Real Time – WSJ.

03/11/2014

Wanted: 500,000 pilots for China aviation gold rush | Reuters

China’s national civil aviation authority says the country will need to train about half a million civilian pilots by 2035, up from just a few thousand now, as wannabe flyers chase dreams of landing lucrative jobs at new air service operators.

Guests walk next to aircraft during the Asian Business Aviation Conference and Exhibition (ABACE) at Hongqiao International Airport in Shanghai in this April 15, 2014 file photograph. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/Files

The aviation boom comes as China allows private planes to fly below 1,000 meters from next year without military approval, seeking to boost its transport infrastructure. Commercial airlines aren’t affected, but more than 200 new firms have applied for general aviation operating licenses, while China’s high-rollers are also eager for permits to fly their own planes.

The civil aviation authority’s own training unit can only handle up to 100 students a year. With the rest of China’s 12 or so existing pilot schools bursting at the seams, foreign players are joining local firms in laying the groundwork for new courses that can run to hundreds of thousands of dollars per trainee.

“The first batch of students we enrolled in 2010 were mostly business owners interested in getting a private license,” said Sun Fengwei, deputy chief of the Civil Aviation Administration of China‘s (CAAC) pilot school. “But now more and more young people also want to learn flying so that they can get a job at general aviation companies.”

While uncertainties remain for what will be a brand new industry, firms are betting they can make money and trainee pilots are convinced they can land dream jobs. Among them is Zong Rui, a 28-year-old former soldier in the People’s Liberation Army from Shandong province in east China, attending a pilot school in Tianjin, an hour’s drive from Beijing.

“The salary is good for a general aviation pilot,” Zong told Reuters by telephone, preparing for a training session. Even without a job lined up, Zong is certain money he borrowed to learn how to fly will pay off: “I can easily pay back the 500,000 yuan ($81,750) tuition in two years, once I get a job.”

via Wanted: 500,000 pilots for China aviation gold rush | Reuters.

29/10/2014

China’s Jobs Picture Not As Rosy As It Looks – China Real Time Report – WSJ

China’s Premier, Li Keqiang, has said repeatedly how happy he is with the strength of the country’s job market, despite a slowing economy. That’s the main reason he sees little need to ease policy aggressively to spur growth, he says.

Officials attribute low unemployment to a drop in the working-age population, along with the development of the service sector, which is more labor-intensive than manufacturing.

But a deeper look into the government’s jobs data shows that the current employment situation is more worrisome than it appears. Across China’s cities, 10.82 million new jobs were created over the first nine months of the year, up 1.5% from the same period of 2013, according to official data released on Friday. That’s slowest rise in five years.

Migrant workers are normally the first to take the brunt of an economic slowdown, since more than one fifth of them work in the construction sector, which is highly sensitive to economic cycles. Employers also tend fire migrant workers first if business is bad rather than laying off urbanites with permanent resident status, economists have said.

“Over the past few years, especially after 2009, the government stepped up investment in infrastructure and property market. That has created many job opportunities for migrant workers,” said Li Shi, an economics professor at Beijing Normal University. “But now a sluggish property market has affected migrant workers.”

The global financial crisis cut China’s economic growth from double-digit rates to 6.6% in early 2009, and left some 200 million migrant laborers facing unemployment and a fraying safety net.

The government responded with a four trillion yuan ($650 billion) stimulus package that helped China rebound rapidly from the global downturn, but also resulted in a series of problems such as industrial overcapacity and environmental pollution.

This time around the economic situation is less dire, and the reaction has been more restrained. Since economic growth started to falter earlier this year, policy makers have contented themselves with a series of targeted easing measures like accelerated spending on infrastructure and special lending programs from the central bank. They have also brought in measures to spur mortgage lending and reduce financing costs and tax burdens for small firms.

via China’s Jobs Picture Not As Rosy As It Looks – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

26/10/2014

China GDP Growth of Just 4 percent is possible – Businessweek

China reported on Tuesday that its economic growth fell to a five-year low. But one forecaster says that’s just the beginning. This week the Conference Board issued a 75-page white paper predicting that China’s annual growth will dip below 4 percent in the next decade. Its title: The Long Soft Fall in Chinese Growth.

I met on Monday with the report’s authors, David Hoffman and Andrew Polk, and asked why they’re so pessimistic on China. They said it’s a straightforward projection of recent slowdowns in the growth of capital investment, labor productivity, and the quantity and quality of the labor force.

It’s the optimists who need to defend their case, according to Hoffman, because the only way to project continued 7 percent growth for China is to project major output-enhancing economic reforms. “We just don’t think that will happen,” says Hoffman, who manages the Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing.

via China GDP Growth of Just 4 percent is possible – Businessweek.

19/10/2014

A pocket guide to doing business in China | McKinsey & Company

A pocket guide to doing business in China

McKinsey director Gordon Orr goes behind the trends shaping the world’s second-largest economy to explain what companies must do to operate effectively.

October 2014 | byGordon Orr

China, a $10 trillion economy growing at 7 percent annually, is a never-before-seen force reshaping our global economy. Over the past 30 years, the Chinese government has at times opened the door wide for foreign companies to participate in its domestic economic growth. At other times, it has kept the door firmly closed. While some global leaders, such as automotive original-equipment manufacturers, have turned China into their single largest source of profits, others, especially in the service sectors, have been challenged to capture a meaningful share of revenue or profits.

This article summarizes some of the trends shaping the next phase of China’s economic growth, which industries might benefit the most, and what could potentially go wrong. It also lays out what I believe it takes to build a successful, large-scale, and profitable business in China today as a foreign company.

via A pocket guide to doing business in China | McKinsey & Company.

18/09/2014

Chinese Well-Being Is Low, Global Survey Shows – Businessweek

Despite years of rapid economic growth and rising incomes, Chinese aren’t feeling so great about themselves. And Chinese from the countryside are feeling even worse. That’s revealed by a new survey focusing on global well-being, released yesterday for the first time by polling agency Gallup and Healthways (HWAY) in Franklin, Tenn.

The Global Well-Being Index is designed as an alternative to traditional objective measures, such as GDP, life expectancy, and population size, the report explains. Instead, the index, which canvassed 133,000 people in 135 countries and regions, serves as “a global barometer of individuals’ perceptions of their well-being.” It’s important because people with higher well-being are “healthier, more productive, and more resilient in the face of challenges such as unemployment,” the report notes.

To find out just how people feel, the survey looked at five categories of perceived well-being, including financial and physical well-being, but also social well-being (“having supportive relationships and love in your life”), community well-being (“liking where you live, feeling safe, and having pride in your community”), and purpose well-being (“liking what you do each day and being motivated to achieve your goals”).

So where did the Chinese reveal themselves as particularly glum? On purpose, or feeling motivated every day, 35 percent of Chinese characterized their well-being as low, and 56 percent said it was moderate, while just 9 percent rated it as high. That compared with 13 percent of respondents in Asia who said they had high well-being, and twice as many, or 18 percent, globally.

On social and community well-being, the Chinese also lagged the rest of Asia and the world. And among rural Chinese, far fewer people expressed high satisfaction with their communities than urban Chinese— just 14 percent for those in the countryside, compared to 23 percent in cities. “With better access to education, entertainment, and employment opportunities, it’s not surprising that urban Chinese are more likely to be satisfied with their communities,” the reports says.

That split within China shows up when it comes to financial security, as well. Overall, the Chinese scored highly (Chinese overall also scored well in physical well-being), with 25 percent expressing high financial well-being, the same as the regional and global average. Yet the rate of those with low financial well-being among rural Chinese was twice that of those in Chinese cities, “speaking to China’s ongoing struggle with income inequality that has resulted from rapid growth,” according to the report.

via Chinese Well-Being Is Low, Global Survey Shows – Businessweek.

01/09/2014

India Outpacing China’s Oil Demand – India Real Time – WSJ

India’s oil demand has grown faster than China’s so far this year, highlighting slowing energy demand in the world’s most populous country and fueling expectations that India may pick up the slack over the medium-to-long term. The pace of India’s demand also reflects optimism about India’s economic growth under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In absolute terms China is Asia’s largest oil consumer, having burned 10.76 million barrels a day of oil and accounting for 12.1% of global oil consumption in 2013, according to BP PLC. The second-largest oil consumer in Asia is Japan, though its oil consumption has been declining as its economy has matured.

India ranks third at 3.7 million barrels a day and accounted for about 4.2% of global oil consumption in 2013.

India’s oil demand has shown steady growth through July at an average of 3%, or 101,000 barrels a day. China’s oil demand has declined at an average of 0.6%, or 62,000 barrel a day, in the same period, Barclays PLC analyst Miswin Mahesh said.

Indian oil demand growth has “organic, domestic, economic activity-linked factors still driving it,” he said. Mr. Mahesh expects the south Asian country’s oil demand to accelerate to 210,000 barrels a day next year, spurred by healthy construction activity, government-financed industrial projects and strong growth in car purchases.

China’s oil-demand growth, on the other hand, remains uncertain, with a large portion of its imports this year going into strategic stockpiling instead of consumption. Its oil demand fell into negative territory in July and its oil imports declined for the first time this year.

“This surprise drop in crude imports further supported our view that [China's] full-year oil demand could be weaker than current market expectations,” Thomas C. Hilboldt, head of Asia Pacific oil research at HSBC Holdings PLC said last week.

The disparity of the demand drivers in India and China is also telling.

The bulk of oil demand in both countries is for diesel, the most widely consumed liquid fuel in Asia. China’s diesel consumption has shown a sharp decline because of its industrial slowdown, while India’s diesel demand rose sharply in the last few months because of power shortages and delayed monsoon rains.

Despite this, the extent to which Indian energy demand can compensate for China’s decline remains doubtful.

Markets are looking for the next emerging-market economy to take over as China moves into its post-industrial phase. Yet India has a fundamentally different economic structure and growth model, Janet Kong, head of market analysis at BP Singapore’s trading division pointed out last week.

“It’s very much a service-oriented economy…not relying on a lot of infrastructure investments or manufacturing,” she said.

The manufacturing sector in India has underperformed for many years, contributing to about 15% of gross domestic product and 12% of employment, compared with 25% or more of GDP in countries like China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the Asian Development Bank’s 2014 report. Meanwhile, China is transitioning from an industrial economy dependent on exports to focus more on domestic consumption.

via India Outpacing China’s Oil Demand – India Real Time – WSJ.

30/08/2014

India posts highest GDP growth figures in over two years

GDP up by 5.7 per cent in April-June quarter

India’s Gross Domestic Product increased by 5.7 per cent in the April-June quarter, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter. Growth in this quarter was the highest since March 2012, and it was sparked by a boost in the manufacturing and service sectors. However, economists said that this rebound could be temporary and stifled by poor monsoon rains and rising food inflation.

via Scroll.in – News. Politics. Culture..

19/06/2014

Plotting the Shape of India’s Recovery – India Real Time – WSJ

Optimism abounds in India following Narendra Modi’s unexpectedly strong election victory. It’s still early days, but the new government’s priorities and coherence are a breath of fresh air.

As India’s economy gets back on its feet, one question is whether the  recovery will be shaped like a U, a V or a square root. In other words: Can growth rebound as quickly and strongly as it did after the global financial crisis?

Unfortunately, the answer is no: India’s recovery will be gradual and uneven, at least in the near term. Growth will accelerate sharply from fiscal 2016 onward.

It’s worth recalling the sting from the global financial crisis. Gross domestic product growth, as measured by production, plunged to 5.8% on-year in the final quarter of 2008, from 9.8% in the second quarter. Growth in expenditure GDP – a less reliable measure – dropped even more, to 1.5% on-year from 8.1%.

The main casualty was growth in gross fixed capital formation, which typically enhances an economy’s productive capacity. This fell from 13.9% in the second quarter to 2.1% in the fourth quarter – then declined by nearly 10% in early 2009.

Afterward, both capital formation and GDP recovered rapidly in a classic V-shaped pattern. Production GDP growth, which fell to 6.7% in fiscal 2009, averaged 8.8% a year in the next two fiscal years. Gross fixed capital formation averaged nearly 10% growth per year in fiscal 2010 and 2011, a swift recovery that hinted the economy was once again on an elevated trajectory — though policy paralysis later shortchanged it.

via Plotting the Shape of India’s Recovery – India Real Time – WSJ.

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