Posts tagged ‘Economic growth’

08/04/2015

Cabinet amends real estate bill to stamp out illegal practices | Reuters

The cabinet has amended a bill to regulate the real estate sector, protect home buyers and curb undeclared “black money” in property markets that costs the exchequer billions of dollars in lost taxable income.

Labourers work at the construction site of a residential building in Mumbai's central financial district April 6, 2015. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

The decision by Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s government to amend the bill, which was submitted by the previous government in 2013 but not passed by the upper house, aims to boost investor confidence and stamp out illegal practices.

The new rules, applicable to residential and commercial developments, will make it mandatory for all projects and brokers to be registered with the real estate regulator who will oversee transactions and settle disputes.

“The bill seeks to ensure accountability and transparency, which will in turn enable the real estate sector to access capital and financial markets essential for its long-term growth,” the government said in a statement on Tuesday.

During recent years sluggish economic growth and delays in getting approvals stalled several real estate projects, leaving buyers waiting for their homes and developers holding high debt.

“This will be a game-changer for the sector,” Rajeev Talwar, executive director at DLF Ltd, India’s top real estate developer.

via Cabinet amends real estate bill to stamp out illegal practices | Reuters.

01/04/2015

China to unveil measures to fight water pollution | Reuters

China is to launch an action plan to protect the quality of its scarce water resources after years of rapid economic growth that have left much of its water supply too polluted for human consumption or for growing food.

The plan, expected to be published this month, will require firms in heavily polluting industries such as paper mills and dye and chemical plants to treat discharged water and it will set higher penalties for those that violate rules on discharging pollutants, according to official media reports.

One third of China’s major river basins and 60 percent of its underground water are contaminated, according to official data, posing a major threat to public health and food security.

The long-awaited action plan is expected to be approved by the cabinet this month to give it legal powers to hold polluters and local authorities responsible.

“The plan will ring an alarm bell with local authorities who did little to protect water and will help to remove the regional segregation that constrained the growth of the water treatment business,” said He Yuanping, executive vice president of Originwater, a private clean water technology company.

He estimated the treatment business could be worth more than 2 trillion yuan ($323 billion) in terms of the total investment involved, including assets owned by local governments.

via China to unveil measures to fight water pollution | Reuters.

31/03/2015

What could happen in China in 2015? | McKinsey & Company

What could happen in China in 2015?

What do you get when you add slower economic growth, greater volatility, and rising competition to more international flights and genuine Chinese innovation? McKinsey director Gordon Orr’s annual predictions.

December 2014 | byGordon Orr

It seemed harder to prepare my “look ahead” this year. On reflection, I believe this is because political and economic leaders in China have clear plans and supporting policies that they are sticking to. You can debate the pace at which actions are being taken, but not really the direction in which the country is traveling. This means a number of the themes I highlighted for this year will remain relevant in 2015:

What could happen in China in 2015?

Author Gordon Orr discusses his China predictions with McKinsey director Nick Leung and principal Yougang Chen.

Improving productivity and efficiency will remain the key to maintaining profitability for many companies, given lower economic growth (overall and at a sector level) and the impact of producer price deflation on multiple sectors.

The impact of technology as it eliminates jobs in services and manufacturing will become even greater (but still not in government).

As a result, the government will keep a sharper focus on net job creation and the quality of those new positions. Companies will hire even more information technologists to keep up in the race to exploit technology better than their competitors.

The push to lower pollution, and now carbon emissions, will lead to even greater investment in domestic solar and wind farms, boosting the global position of Chinese producers.

High-speed-rail construction will continue domestically and increasingly abroad, as Chinese companies become the builder of choice for high-speed rail globally.

Beyond these, there are several additional themes that will be important in 2015. I describe them below.

What else may happen in 2015? – see article:

via What could happen in China in 2015? | McKinsey & Company.

14/03/2015

China’s greener energy efforts help global carbon emissions stall after almost 40 years of gains | South China Morning Post

China burned less coal and generated more electricity from renewable sources last year, which helped halt the rise in global carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector.

China burned less coal last year and generated more electricity from renewable sources to help halt the global rise in  carbon dioxide emissions. Photo: Reuters

Emissions of carbon dioxide were flat at 32.3 billion tonnes last year, as they were in 2013, the International Energy Agency (IEA)  reported yesterday.

It ended steady gains over the past four decades except in years with an economic downturn.

“This is both a welcome surprise and a significant one,” IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said in a statement.

“This gives me even more hope that humankind will be able to work together to combat climate change, the most important threat facing us today.”

The IEA, which is based in France, and advises governments of developed nations, said the halt in emissions growth was linked to greener patterns of energy consumption in China – the top carbon emitter ahead of the United States – and in developed nations.

“In China, [last year] saw greater generation of electricity from renewable sources, such as hydropower, solar and wind, and less burning of coal,” it said.

via China’s greener energy efforts help global carbon emissions stall after almost 40 years of gains | South China Morning Post.

05/03/2015

China 2015 defense budget to grow 10.1 pct, lowest in 5 years – Xinhua | English.news.cn

China on Thursday announced a 10.1-percent rise in its national defense budget in 2015, the lowest growth in five years as the country confronts mounting pressure in the face of an economic slowdown.

According to a budget report released shortly before the country’s top legislature starts its annual session, the government plans to raise defense budget to 886.9 billion yuan (about 144.2 billion U.S. dollars).

That would make China the second largest military spender in the world following the U.S., whose defense budget amounted to 600.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2013.

Nonetheless, the 10.1-percent rise represented the lowest expansion in China since 2010, when the defense budget was set to grow by 7.5 percent.

The figure has thereon been riding on a multi-year run of double-digit increases, expanding 12.2 percent last year.

Thursday’s budget report did not explain the rationale behind this year’s abated growth, but a government work report to be presented by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang may offer some clues.

According to the report, national defense development would be coordinated with the country’s economic growth.

The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, registering the weakest annual expansion in more than two decades. The government set this year’s growth target to approximately 7 percent, brewing new concerns that the world’s economic powerhouse is losing steam.

But the report played down such concerns, stressing that China is now in a “new normal” state, where a balance ought to be stricken between growth and structural optimization.

via China 2015 defense budget to grow 10.1 pct, lowest in 5 years – Xinhua | English.news.cn.

27/02/2015

India in sweet spot of lower deficits, more growth – Economic Survey | Reuters

India can increase investment to drive economic growth without borrowing more, a key government report said on Friday, in an indication that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will stick to debt targets in his maiden full-year budget on Saturday.

Labourers work at the site of a monorail project in Mumbai February 27, 2015. REUTERS-Shailesh Andrade

The Economic Survey, the basis for Jaitley’s budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, forecast growth of 8.1 percent to 8.5 percent under new calculations that make India the world’s most dynamic big economy. The forecast marks an acceleration from growth of 7.4 percent in the current fiscal year.

“India has reached a sweet spot and … there is a scope for Big Bang reforms now,” the report said, adding the country was on course to hit double-digit growth rates.

Indian stocks rallied, with the benchmark Sensex gaining 1.7 percent, on hopes that Jaitley would deliver a business-friendly budget.

At first glance the growth outlook appears impressive. But it follows a big overhaul of India’s economic data, which previously showed the economy struggling to recover from its longest growth slowdown in a generation.

Other indicators of India’s economy are not as rosy as GDP data suggests. Earnings of the country’s top 100 companies shrank by 6 percent in the last quarter, private investment and consumer demand are weak and merchandise exports are falling.

The author of the report, economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, even said he was “puzzled” by the new GDP figures and played down suggestions that India’s $2 trillion economy was on a roll.

“India’s economy is still recovering, and not surging,” Subramanian told a news conference.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a landslide general election victory last May, capitalising on dissatisfaction among Indians over their economic lot and promising ‘better days’ of more jobs, investment and growth.

The report by Subramanian, a renowned development economist lured away from a Washington think tank by Modi, suggested the economy was now building momentum.

That, above all, reflects a near halving in international prices of oil, India’s biggest import.

As a result, the report predicts the current account deficit will be below 1 percent of GDP in 2015/16, a far cry from a figure of 4.7 percent in 2012/13 that preceded a currency crisis in India.

via India in sweet spot of lower deficits, more growth – Economic Survey | Reuters.

25/02/2015

India to embark on rail investment splurge thanks to cheap oil | Reuters

India’s decrepit state-run train services stand to receive at least a 25 percent boost in investment to over $9 billion, funded solely by falling fuel costs, according to officials familiar with a railway budget set to be unveiled on Thursday.

A worker cleans a railway track at a railway station in Kolkata October 2, 2014. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/Files

The world’s fourth largest rail network could get even more if Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes it a priority, as China did during its rapid economic growth over the past two decades.

There are high hopes that his nine-month-old government will plough money into investment in infrastructure needed to haul the economy out of a rut when it presents its first annual federal budget on Saturday.

The separate rail budget – a relic of the country’s British colonial past – could show how far Modi’s India is prepared to drive investment in a vital transport sector.

“The fall in diesel prices and a pick-up in freight earnings have given us a golden chance to raise investments,” said one government official.

Falling oil prices have saved billions of dollars in subsidy spending across the economy, but Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is under pressure to prevent the fiscal deficit from busting a target of 3.6 percent of gross domestic product.

Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu, according to the officials, has factored in savings from

via India to embark on rail investment splurge thanks to cheap oil | Reuters.

24/02/2015

Retail dilemma in India – nice malls are few and far between | Reuters

A severe shortage of attractive malls has made setting up shop in India easier said than done, crimping expansion plans for both foreign retailers such as Lacoste and domestic giants like department store chain Shoppers Stop (SHOP.NS).

A private security guard stands guard inside the premises of the MGF mall in New Delhi February 23, 2015.  REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

India’s searing heat, heavy traffic and cluttered pavements make malls the most popular option for urban middle class consumers looking for a day out. But many centres – despite having been built in the last decade – are struggling to draw shoppers or retailers because of poor design or because they are difficult to manage.

P.S. Puri, CEO of MGF Mall Management, which runs MGF Metropolitan, knows this all too well. Located in a posh district in the south of New Delhi, security guards and sales staff outnumbered shoppers last Tuesday evening in what was once a bustling mall.

It has restaurants but lacks popular attractions like a food court and a cinema. The sale of shop ownership piecemeal has made management difficult and now only one quarter of the space is occupied by fashion retailers – about the same amount that is vacant.

via Retail dilemma in India – nice malls are few and far between | Reuters.

12/02/2015

Racing the elephant against the dragon | The Economist

IN 1991 India’s finance minister presented a budget to India’s parliament that would change the economic history of his country. His reforms dispensed with mounds of the red tape that reined in Indian growth, and opened up many industries to foreign capital. But India was a late-comer to the liberalisation game; China had been opening its economy since the 1970s and accelerated its efforts in the 1990s. China’s reforms have been the more successful; except for a brief period in 1999, the Chinese economy has consistently outperformed its smaller neighbour. But that picture may soon reverse.

Official statistics published on February 9th revealed that India’s GDP rose by 7.5% in 2014, a shade faster than China’s over the same period. Later this month Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, is likely to push new reforms. India also enjoys a demographic advantage. Whereas China’s workforce began to shrink in 2012, more than half of India’s current population is younger than 25. India, rather than China, may henceforth be the symbol of rapid emerging-market growth.

via Daily chart: Racing the elephant against the dragon | The Economist.

12/02/2015

India Passes China to Become World’s Fastest-Growing Economy – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Everyone from the World Bank to Goldman Sachs had predicted it wouldn’t happen for another two years but recent recalculations indicate that India has already dethroned China as the world’s fastest-growing big economy.

Late Monday, India’s statistics ministry surprised economists when it unveiled the new numbers for the growth of India’s gross domestic product. It ratcheted up India’s GDP growth figures using a new methodology that pegs expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy at 7.5% last quarter and 8.2% the quarter before that. Economists and the ministry, using the old methodology, had originally said growth was closer to 5.5% during those quarters.

While economists, investors and executives are still wondering how growth could have been so high during those quarters when other indicators suggested times were tough, the new official numbers mean that India outpaced China, taking the pole position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

India has been able to catch up because China’s growth has been slowing. The Middle Kingdom’s GDP expansion was 7.3% in both the third and fourth quarters of 2014. While there are smaller economies which may have had stronger growth, this puts India on top after decades driving in China’s slipstream.

Of course, China’s economy is still four times the size of India’s.

“There’s no comparison between these growth rates because of the size of the economy of China,” said Ashish Kumar, director general of the Central Statistics Office as he announced the new GDP growth numbers.  “If this kind of growth continues and China continues to perform at a lower level, then still it will take 20 to 30 years to catch up.”

Still, if it can keep up this pace at least India will be gaining some ground. More importantly, a return to high growth might mean India is following in China’s footsteps and entering a take-off phase.

The South Asian nation needs to revamp its economy to help create more manufacturing jobs and savings if it wants to become the next China, said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in a recent report.

“That’s a challenging transformation,” he said. “India may never quite match the rapid ascent of China, but even at a slightly slower speed it will start to make waves.”

via India Passes China to Become World’s Fastest-Growing Economy – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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