Archive for July, 2013

13/07/2013

China cancels $6 billion uranium project after protest

Reuters: “China has canceled plans to build a uranium processing plant in a southern Chinese city a day after hundreds of protesters took to the streets demanding the project be scrapped, a local government website said on Saturday.

The proposed 230-hectare complex in the heart of China’s Pearl River delta industrial heartland in Guangdong province had also sparked unease in neighboring Hong Kong and Macau.

Authorities in the gambling enclave had formally raised the issue with their Guangdong counterparts, the South China Morning Post reported.

A one-line statement published on the Heshan city government’s website said that “to respect people’s desire, the Heshan government will not propose the CNNC project”. State-run China National Nuclear Corporation had planned to build the 37 billion yuan ($6 billion) project.

CNNC officials could not be reached for comment.”

via China cancels $6 billion uranium project after protest | Reuters.

12/07/2013

How Shale Gas Can Save China From Itself

BusinessWeek: “For years the Chinese have been told that the blinding, sooty haze choking Beijing and other cities is the price of progress. Yet China’s appetite for energy is literally killing its people. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, based on data compiled between 1980 and 2000, estimated that pollution caused by burning coal stripped five years from the life expectancy of Chinese in the northern half of the country—a collective loss of 2.5 billion years. A separate study published in December in the Lancet attributed about a million deaths a year in China to air pollution.

Cars in Beijing travel on the road in heavy smog on March 7

Although other factors have contributed to the blackening of China’s skies—including millions of cars and motorbikes clogging roads—coal remains the deadliest. In the past decade, China’s coal consumption has more than doubled. It now burns almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. In the first three months of the year, levels of PM-10 (particulates with a diameter of 10 micrometers or less) in Beijing were almost 30 percent greater than during the same period a year earlier.

By contrast, in the U.S. CO2 emissions hit an 18-year low in 2012. The reason? An explosion in shale gas production raised the share of electricity produced by natural gas from 20 percent to 30 percent, while bringing down the proportion produced by coal from 50 percent to 37 percent.

China’s recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated to be 25 trillion cubic meters, 50 percent larger than those of the U.S. The government has already announced subsidies to local shale gas producers; it should also help finance new pipelines and gas-fired power plants. Officials must lower barriers to entry and increase incentives to encourage the most innovative drilling companies—the majority of which are American—to work in China.

Shale is no silver bullet. In the near term, China will have to keep building coal-fired plants to meet its voracious energy demand. Yet failure to address coal pollution will condemn millions more Chinese to premature deaths. It’s hardly a choice.”

via Bloomberg View: How Shale Gas Can Save China From Itself – Businessweek.

12/07/2013

China’s Savers Block the Consumer Economy

The Chinese public must be very confused.  The government is urging them to spend rather than save. Yet, government itself is on a serious austerity drive. See post on the cut back in budget for the National Gameshttps://chindia-alert.org/2013/07/12/austerity-threatens-to-take-gloss-off-chinas-national-games/.

BusinessWeek: “Twenty-seven-year-old lawyer Kevin Han is frugal. Breakfast is 5 yuan (82¢) for a cup of soybean milk and a hard-boiled egg or a steamed bun. He has a 20-yuan lunch of white rice, with small portions of meat and vegetables, in the cafeteria at his workplace in Beijing. He spends about the same for dinner. Han gets deals buying clothes online, lives in a cheap rental apartment, and takes the subway to work (4 yuan round-trip). Scrimping is a must if he’s to buy his own place. He says he saves about half his monthly take-home pay of 13,000 yuan. “I want to get married and have a child, which will cost lots of money. My parents are not rich. So I have to save everything by myself.”

China's Savers Block the Consumer Economy

China’s leaders want these super savers to open their wallets and boost​ a slowing economy. Chinese on average put away 30.6 percent of their disposable income, amounting to 6.9 trillion yuan in total household savings in China in 2012, estimates Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in Hong Kong. That’s up from 23 percent 10 years ago. With increasing overcapacity in steel and cement, rising corporate debt, and a growing problem with unregulated shadow finance, Beijing must wean China off investment-led growth in favor of more household consumption—only 35.7 percent of gross domestic product, way behind the 50 percent to 60 percent in many other countries.

Middle-class Chinese like Han pinch pennies to pay for ever-more costly city apartments and save for their children’s education costs. The working class also hoards yuan. Twenty-six-year-old Sichuan native Wei Yinping, a worker in a Shenzhen watchband factory, worries about paying for medical care if she or her parents become seriously ill. She saves almost half her monthly salary of 2,500 yuan. Without a hukou, or household registration card, she can’t avail herself of Shenzhen’s public health-care network. “If I had a local hukou, I would have many social security benefits” and not save so much, she says. Wei plans eventually to move back home and take care of her mother.

One reason the Chinese are champion savers is that earning a decent return is so hard. China’s central bank has kept rates low: A one-year deposit rate offers 3 percent, while loans to support investment by free-spending local governments and state companies go for 6 percent. With inflation, Chinese households earn close to nothing on bank deposits. “Interest rate policy has limited the ability of households to earn income from their savings, and reduced the pressure on poorly performing companies to improve,” warned Andrew Batson and Joyce Poon, analysts at Beijing-based economic consulting firm GK Dragonomics, in a May report.

The government is taking steps to reform the hukou system. It’s expanding health-care and pension plans so Chinese need not save to protect themselves from catastrophe. Regulators are giving banks more flexibility to set market-based interest rates and encouraging lending to the service sector, which is creating jobs. It will take all this and more to unleash Chinese spending power.”

via China’s Savers Block the Consumer Economy – Businessweek.

12/07/2013

Austerity threatens to take gloss off China’s national games

I wonder if the government’s austerity drive and the anti-corruption drive is contributing to the slow down in spending and exacerbating the slowdown in the economy?

FT: “Fireworks are out and frugality is in at China’s national games after the organising committee rushed to comply with edicts requiring officials across the country to tighten their belts as the economy slows.

A football match is held inside the Shenyang Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, one of the five football venues of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, in Shenyang...A football match is held inside the Shenyang Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, one of the five football venues of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, in Shenyang, capital of northeast China's Liaoning province August 1, 2007. Picture taken August 1, 2007. REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA) - RTR1SG8T

The austere sporting championships, which start at the end of August in the northeastern province of Liaoning, will contrast with China’s lavish spending on major events from the Beijing Olympics in 2008 to the world expo in Shanghai in 2010 when the economy was growing at a double-digit pace.

Now, with growth dipping towards 7.5 per cent and Xi Jinping, the new president, railing against ostentatious displays of wealth, the organisers of the Liaoning games – China’s national equivalent of the Olympics – have gone out of their way to highlight their cost-saving measures.

The funding for the games, held every four years and the largest national sporting event in the country, has been cut by 78 per cent from the original budget to Rmb800m ($130m), with fewer new competition venues and less spending on entertainment than initially planned, they announced.

The opening ceremonies will be held during the day to reduce the need for lighting, the first time since 1987 that they have not been at night. The organisers also vowed not to use fireworks, departing with the tradition of bombastic pyrotechnic displays at the start of Chinese sporting events.

“For the opening and closing ceremonies, stadium construction, the torch relay and all other segments of the national games, we strive to create, hopefully, a fresh fashion of organising big events in a thrifty manner,” said He Min, deputy director of the organising committee.

Along with cancelling a series of conferences and exhibitions on the sidelines of the games, the number of invited foreign guests has also been reduced by half. Those foreigners who do make the guest list will have to endure relative privation. There will be “neither welcome banquets nor souvenirs for them”, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The shift to austerity falls in line with a tone set by Mr Xi since his first days in office late last year as head of the Communist party. He banned flower displays at official events and ordered that banquets should be pared back, demanding that government spending should be less wasteful.

These demands have intensified in recent months as the Chinese economy has slowed and after Mr Xi launched a new campaign against “hedonism and extravagance” among other ills.

The finance ministry this week ordered all units of the central government to reduce general expenditures such as car purchases and overseas travel.”

via Austerity threatens to take gloss off China’s national games – FT.com.

11/07/2013

China plans world’s longest sea tunnel at $42 billion

Reuters: “China will invest 260 billion yuan, or about $42 billion, to revive a long-stalled plan to build the world’s longest undersea tunnel across the Bohai Strait linking the country’s eastern and northeastern regions, state media said on Thursday.

The 123-km (76.4-mile) tunnel will run from the port city of Dalian in northeastern Liaoning province to Yantai city in eastern Shandong, the China Economic Net website said.

The report did not say when the project will be completed.

China announced plans in 1994 to build the tunnel, at a cost of $10 billion, and set to be completed before 2010. But more than 20 years on, the project remains stuck in the planning stage, the website said, without elaborating.

At the time, state media said the tunnel would shorten the travelling distance between the two regions by 620 miles.

The costs could be recouped in 12 years, said Wang Mengshu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, who estimated annual revenues from the tunnel at around 20 billion yuan, the website said. “Freight is very profitable,” Wang said.”

via China plans world’s longest sea tunnel at $42 billion -report | Reuters.

See alsohttps://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/chinas-infrastructure/

11/07/2013

China stone axes ‘display ancient writing’

BBC: “Fragments of two ancient stone axes found in China could display some of the world’s earliest primitive writing, Chinese archaeologists say.

In this undated photo, markings etched on an unearthed piece of a stone axe are seen near Zhuangqiao grave relic, in Pinghu, in eastern China's Zhejiang province

The markings on the axes, unearthed near Shanghai, could date back at least 5,000 years, the scientists say.

But Chinese scholars are divided on whether the markings are proper writing or a less sophisticated stream of symbols.

The world’s oldest writing is thought to be from Mesopotamia from 3,300 BC.

The stone fragments are part of a large trove of artefacts discovered between 2003 and 2006 at a site just south of Shanghai, says the BBC’s Celia Hatton in Beijing.

But it has taken years for archaeologists to examine their discoveries and release their findings, our correspondent adds.

The findings have not been reviewed by experts outside China, reports say.

“The main thing is that there are six symbols arranged together and three of them are the same,” lead archaeologist Xu Xinmin told local reporters, referring to markings on one of the pieces.

“This clearly is a sentence expressing some kind of meaning”.

Cao Jinyan, a well-known scholar on ancient writing, also told local media that the markings could be an early form of writing.

“Although we cannot yet accurately read the meaning of the ‘words’ carved on the stone axes, we can be certain that they belong to the category of words, even if they are somewhat primitive,” he said.

Some scholars, however, remain unconvinced. Archaeologist Liu Zhao from Fudan University in Shanghai told the Associated Press news agency they “do not have enough material” to make conclusions.

If proven, the stone axes will be older than the earliest proven Chinese writing found on animal bones, which dates back 3,300 years.”

via BBC News – China stone axes ‘display ancient writing’.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/historical-perspectives/4000-years-records/

10/07/2013

* Minimum wage per month for selected countries

Minimum wage per month for selected countries in US dollars

China                     $138

Cambodia            $75

Indonesia            $71

Vietnam               $67

India                      $65

Bangladesh         $38

Source: US State Department/The Wall Street Journal May 2013

See also:

10/07/2013

China’s reliance on coal reduces life expectancy by 5.5 years, says study

The Guardian: “Air pollution causes people in northern China to live an average of 5.5 years shorter than their southern counterparts, according to a study released on Monday which claims to show in unprecedented detail the link between air pollution and life expectancy.

Air Pollution Attacks Beijing Again : A tourist looks at the Forbidden City as PM25 covers

High levels of air pollution in northern China – much of it caused by an over-reliance on burning coal for heat – will cause 500 million people to lose an aggregate 2.5 billion years from their lives, the authors predict in the study, published in the journal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The geographic disparity can be traced back to China’s Huai River policy which, since it was implemented between 1950 and 1980, has granted free wintertime heating to people living north of the Huai river, a widely-acknowledged dividing line between northern and southern China. Much of that heating comes from the combustion of coal, significantly impacting the region’s air quality.

“Using data covering an unusually long timespan – from 1981 through 2000 – the researchers found that air pollution … was about 55% higher north of the river than south of it,” the MIT Energy Initiative said in a statement.

“Linking the Chinese pollution data to mortality statistics from 1991 to 2000, the researchers found a sharp difference in mortality rates on either side of the border formed by the Huai River. They also found the variation to be attributable to cardiorespiratory illness, and not to other causes of death.”

The researchers, based in Israel, Beijing, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, gauged the region’s air quality according to the established metric of “total suspended particulates (TSP),” representing the concentration of certain airborne particles per cubic meter of air.

The study concluded that long-term exposure to air containing 100 micrograms of TSP per cubic meter “is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 years.””

via China’s reliance on coal reduces life expectancy by 5.5 years, says study | Environment | The Guardian.

10/07/2013

Returning students: Plight of the sea turtles

The Economist: ““I LEFT in 1980 with only three dollars in my pocket,” recalls Li Sanqi. He was one of the first allowed to study overseas after the dark days of the Cultural Revolution. Like most in that elite group, he excelled, rising to a coveted position at the University of Texas, while launching several technology firms. Now he is a senior executive at Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, enticed back by the chance to help build a world-class multinational.

Mr Li seems the perfect example of a sea turtle, or hai gui (in Mandarin, the phrase “return across the sea” sounds similar to that animal’s name), long applauded in China for bringing back advanced skills. In the past such folk reliably reaped handsome premiums in the local job market, but no longer. Sea turtles are not universally praised, the wage differential is shrinking and some are even unable to find jobs. Wags say they should now be called hai dai, or seaweed. This is a startling turn, given their past contributions.

Wang Huiyao of the China Western Returned Scholars Association, which celebrates its centenary this year, observes that sea turtles have returned in five waves. The first, in the 19th century, produced China’s first railway-builder and its first university president. The second and third, before 1949, produced many leaders of the Nationalist and Communist parties. The fourth wave, which went to the Soviet bloc in the 1950s, produced such leaders as Jiang Zemin and Li Peng.

The present wave began in 1978, and is by far the biggest. Since then, about 2.6m Chinese have gone abroad to study. The exodus has grown of late to about 400,000 per year. The majority stay overseas, but the 1.1m who have come back have made a difference. Mr Wang argues that whereas the first three waves revolutionised China and the fourth modernised it, the fifth wave is globalising the country.

Sea turtles are helping to link China’s economy to the world. They founded leading technology firms such as Baidu. Many are senior managers in the local divisions of multinational firms. They are helping to connect China to commercial, political and popular culture abroad.

Why then is their importance declining? Several studies show that sea turtles on average must now wait longer to find a less senior post at a smaller salary premium over local hires. The weakening job market for all graduates is one reason. Another is that, as China’s domestic market has taken off, industries such as e-commerce have evolved in ways unfamiliar to those who spent years abroad. Gary Rieschel of Qiming Ventures, a venture-capital firm, says that investors who a decade ago would have funded only those returning from Silicon Valley are now backing entrepreneurs from local universities, who are more familiar with local consumption patterns, computer-gaming habits and social media such as Weibo and Weixin.

As China has boomed, its managers have started to shed their inferiority complex. A senior executive at Tencent, a Chinese social-media giant, says he still poaches sea turtles from foreign firms, but finds they have difficulty managing local engineers. A European investment banker says turtles often cling to quaint Western notions like transparency, meritocracy and ethics, which puts them at a disadvantage in China’s hyper-Darwinian economy, where locals are more willing to do whatever the boss or client wants.

Even foreign firms in China are getting pickier about whom they hire. Yannig Gourmelon of Roland Berger, a German management consultancy, believes the broader profit squeeze at multinational firms that killed off gilded expatriate packages has also sharply reduced the salary premium offered to sea turtles.”

via Returning students: Plight of the sea turtles | The Economist.

See also:

10/07/2013

The Risky Business of Retirement in China

BusinessWeek: “It’s not surprising that China’s roller-coaster stock markets have earned scant investor confidence. On Tuesday, the respected Beijing financial magazine Caijing reported on a survey of 9,282 investors in Chinese stock markets. Over the lifetime of their investments, just 16 percent had seen net earnings of more than 10 percent; 70 percent had seen losses of more than 10 percent.

An investor watches the electronic board at a stock exchange hall on June 24, 2013 in Huaibei, China

The performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange often seems bizarrely detached from national economic performance. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index—an index of leading stocks on the two exchanges—is down 11.3 percent. Even the famed British money manager Anthony Bolton lost money when he came to China. Bolton, who managed Fidelity International Special Situations Fund for nearly three decades with a stunning average annual return of 19.5 percent, launched the investment trust Fidelity China Special Situations in 2010. Three years later, that fund is down 15 percent, and Bolton plans to step down next year.

The volatile performance of China’s stock markets gives pause to investors of all stripes, but it also unfortunately intersects with another worrying trend in China: the graying of the population. China today is home to 180 million people over age 60. That figure is expected to double to 360 million by 2030. According to Wang Feng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, by 2030, at least one in five people in China will be over age 65. How can they prudently invest for retirement?

The average life expectancy in China is now 73 for men and 79 for women, up more than 12 years since 1970, thanks to improved health care and nutrition. But the mandatory retirement age for most workers in China is fairly low: 50 for women and 60 for men. As a comprehensive report by the Prudential Foundation and the Center for Strategic & International Studies, China’s Long March to Retirement Reform, put it, “older workers seem to have little place in China’s new economic order.” The report also found that as of 2007, only 65 percent of the urban workforce, including both civil servants and private-sector employees, was contributing to even a basic state-mandated pension plan.

For the past half decade, real estate has been the preferred investment vehicle in China. Only two decades old, China’s private real estate market has never yet seen a downturn. Home prices in many leading cities, however, have risen so quickly that many nonwealthy Chinese are struggling today to enter the market and buy their first homes, even with the help of parents’ and extended family’s savings. (To be sure, many analysts and even Chinese megadeveloper Vanke’s chairman, Wang Shi, say the country’s heated real estate market risks becoming a bubble: “If the bubble lasted, it will be dangerous,” Wang told a recent conference in Shanghai.)”

via The Risky Business of Retirement in China – Businessweek.

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