Decoupling Happened: U.S. Stocks Soared, China’s Shrugged – Businessweek

The idea that emerging markets could keep growing smartly despite the collapse of the U.S. was something romanced quite a bit in recent years. Decoupling, as it’s called, was at least numerically possible. After all, China, Brazil, India, and Russia—the planet’s four biggest emerging economies, which chipped in two-fifths of global economic growth in the year leading up to Wall Street’s 2008 collapse—stood out as the least dependent on exports to America. Upwards of 95 percent of China’s double-digit growth was attributable to domestic demand.

Turns out a decoupling did transpire in the five years since peak meltdown—only it’s the U.S. market that seems to be doing fine while China founders. It’s a divergence of fortunes few would have predicted.

The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has produced a total return of 207 percent to touch a record high in the five years since the market set a low unseen since the 1990s. Citigroup is clocking U.S. shares at “euphoric” territory. By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has returned 125 percent.

via Decoupling Happened: U.S. Stocks Soared, China’s Shrugged – Businessweek.

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