Beijing offers rare amnesty, but could it be a lost opportunity for China?

President Xi Jinping has shown himself capable of surprise, whether he is responding to the Hong Kong protests or the US trade war. But his failure to pardon political prisoners and rally China proves there are limits to his flexibility

President Xi Jinping waves as he reviews troops on Tiananmen Square during a Victory Day military parade in September 2015. He has signed two amnesty orders since taking office, one to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the second world war in 2015, and the other to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic China this year. Photo: EPA

To mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing has granted special pardons to

nine categories of prisoners

. This is the

ninth

amnesty since the Communist Party took control of the country, and the second since Xi Jinping took office. The previous amnesty was announced in 2015, on the occasion of the

70th anniversary

of the end of the second world war.

Before Beijing declared the latest amnesty for Chinese and foreign individuals, I had expected Xi to take this chance to pardon

political prisoners

(although there are no political crimes under the Chinese penal code, in reality those facing political persecution are often convicted of criminal offences). It would have demonstrated the stated aims of the amnesty, which include continuing the fine traditions of Chinese civilisation, such as cautious punishment and benevolence to prisoners. It would also have shown there is still a sliver of space for political openness in the

current harsh environment

Out of the nine categories announced, political prisoners could have fallen under the sixth category – those aged 75 and above and with serious physical disabilities. But the Chinese government also stated it would not pardon those who refused to repent or were deemed dangerous to society, provisions that would exclude political prisoners.

Since Xi came to power, Beijing has strengthened its

control

over public opinion, suppressed dissidents and

human rights lawyers

, and emphasised ideology in the fields of thought and culture, such that the authority of the party and Xi has reached an

apex

. Yet, considering China’s current social situation, it should be difficult, but not impossible, for Xi to pardon political prisoners and send a reassuring signal to society.

Beijing had declared seven amnesties before 1975, but none between 1975 and 2015 – not even during the two relatively relaxed decades, the

1980s

and the

2000s

. The amnesty of 2015 was unexpected because while the 70th anniversary of China’s victory against Japan was major, it was also just a commemorative celebration. To some extent, it illustrated Xi’s ability to surprise – and he has sprung more surprises since.

Recently, contrary to many observers’ expectations, Xi did not push for tough measures against the

million-strong

anti-extradition protests in Hong Kong. Last year, when

private entrepreneurs

had a crisis of confidence and many believed Xi would ramp up the policy of promoting the state sector over the private sector, he made a 180-degree turn towards

private enterprises

Then there are the

trade negotiations

between China and the United States: public opinion expected an agreement to be signed, but Xi wanted a renegotiation and a

“balanced”

text. It is clear from all this that Xi understands the strategy of advance and retreat. If a situation is unfavourable for his or the party’s rule, he will adjust his policy.

And the current political climate in China would seem to warrant an adjustment. Xi’s leftist practices have alienated many and caused resentment in some sections of the party and society; in particular, he has destroyed the party’s relationship with

intellectuals

. However, the liberal faction of the party has realised the

consequences

of alienating intellectuals, and is calling on top-level cadres to rebuild the relationship with scholars to strengthen the legitimacy of the party’s rule.

Internationally, an amnesty is a humanitarian measure that creates an atmosphere of reconciliation and regulates the political climate. Xi, who has abolished a term limit on the presidency, wants to maintain stable,

long-lasting rule

. To rally the Chinese people behind him at

this critical moment

, it is reasonable to loosen the tightly wound spring that is Chinese society, and restore some flexibility. Special pardons would alleviate social conflict, reunite intellectuals, ease tension with the party’s critics, and avoid worsening the social divide.

Have the extradition protests sealed Hong Kong’s fate with Beijing?

In announcing the latest amnesty, Beijing emphasised the need to exude institutional confidence,

establish

China as a great nation in a new era of prosperity, and to project an image of an advanced culture that is open, democratic and respects the rule of law.

China has a tradition of holding small celebrations every five years and big celebrations every 10 years. To highlight the great achievements and high morals of Xi, the new helmsman steering his people towards socialism, a wider net was cast for the latest special pardons: nine categories of prisoners, compared to four categories in 2015.

However, in setting stricter conditions to exclude some from the amnesty – in particular, political prisoners – Beijing has revealed the hypocrisy of its special pardons, to say nothing of its failure to enhance institutional confidence.

In short, Xi has squandered what could have been a good move to unite the Chinese people. Whatever his reasons might be, this amnesty should make one thing clear to the world: although Xi can be opportunistic and flexible in his ruling strategy, he is intransigent on the fundamental question of

China’s direction

and is well and truly stuck.

Source: SCMP

Posted on 17/07/2019 at 10:12 in 70th anniversary, Beijing, founding, lost opportunity, People’s Republic China, President Xi Jinping, rare amnesty, Tiananmen Square, Uncategorized, Victory Day military parade | RSS feed | Reply | Trackback URL

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