Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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Beijing ‘carefully considering’ unveiling the plane at the Zhuhai Airshow in November at a time of heightened regional tension
H-20 will give China the nuclear triad of submarines, ballistic missiles and bombers
An artist’s impression of what the H-20 may look like. Photo: Weibo
China’s new generation strategic bomber is likely to be ready for delivery this year, but Beijing is said to be weighing the impact of its unveiling at a complex time in regional relations due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Military sources said the Xian H-20 supersonic stealth bomber – expected to double the country’s strike range – could make its first public appearance at this year’s Zhuhai Airshow in November, if the pandemic was sufficiently under control.
“The Zhuhai Airshow is expected to become a platform to promote China’s image and its success in pandemic control – telling the outside world that the contagion did not have any big impacts on Chinese defence industry enterprises,” a source said.
But the appearance of the bomber at this year’s air show could heighten tensions by directly threatening countries within its strike range, especially Australia, Japan and the Korean peninsula.
Thrilling aerobatics fill the skies to open air show in central China
“The Beijing leadership is still carefully considering whether its commission will affect regional balance, especially as regional tensions have been escalating over the Covid-19 pandemic,” another source said.
“Like intercontinental ballistic missiles, all strategic bombers can be used for delivering nuclear weapons … if China claimed it had pursued a national defence policy which is purely defensive in nature, why would it need such an offensive weapon?”
Tensions in the region have worsened in the past month with a war of words between Beijing and Washington over the pandemic, and both sides increasing naval patrols.
The US defence department has estimated a cruising distance of more than 8,500km (5,300 miles) for the H-20, the last in China’s 20 series of new generation warplanes, which includes the J-20 stealth fighter jet, the Y-20 giant transporter and the Z-20 medium-lift utility helicopter.
The arrival of the H-20 would mark the completion of China’s “nuclear triad” of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and air-launched weapons.
An H-6K bomber, or China’s B-52, flies over the South China Sea. Photo: AP
Chinese state television has said the H-20 could alter the strategic calculus between the US and China by doubling the strike range of its current H-6K, dubbed the country’s B-52.
The H-20 has reportedly been designed to strike targets beyond the second island ring – which includes US bases in Japan, Guam, the Philippines and other countries – from bases in mainland China. The third island chain extends to Hawaii and coastal Australia.
It will be equipped with nuclear and conventional missiles with a maximum take-off weight of at least 200 tonnes and a payload of up to 45 tonnes. The bomber is expected to fly at subsonic speeds and could potentially unleash four powerful hypersonic stealth cruise missiles.
However, like China’s first active stealth fighter jet, the J-20, engine development of the H-20 bomber has fallen behind schedule, according to sources.
For the J-20, engineers were developing high-thrust turbofan WS-15 engines, but the jet is understood to be using either Chinese WS-10B or Russian-built AL-31FM2/3 engines, which compromise its manoeuvrability and stealth capabilities at subsonic speeds.
Military enthusiasts have speculated the H-20 might use the NK-321 Russian engine but two independent military sources said it would be equipped with an upgraded WS-10 engine.
“The WS-10 is still a transitional engine for the H-20 because it is not powerful enough. The eligible replacement may take two to three years for development,” one of the sources said.
China must meet air force demand for J-20 stealth jets, say analysts
17 Feb 2020
The second said the speed of the H-20 would be slower than its original design, with some of its original combat capability being reduced.
“That’s why the American air force doesn’t care about the H-20, because it is not strong and powerful enough to cause any challenge to their B-2 and B-21 bombers.”
If the US decided to deploy more F-35 supersonic fighter jets – it has already sold about 200 to Japan and South Korea – it could push China to bring forward the unveiling of the new bomber, the second source said.
“For example, if some US decision makers decided to deploy up to 500 F-35s to Japan, South Korea, and even Singapore, India and Taiwan – making almost all of China’s neighbours in the Indo-Pacific region use F-35s to contain China – that would pushBeijing to launch the H-20 as soon as possible.”
The H-20 is believed to have been in development since the early 2000s. The project to develop a strategic bomber was first announced by the People’s Liberation Army in 2016.
Defence spending could show the effect of economic headwinds but is still expected to increase
PLA’s modernisation and strategic priorities demand spending is maintained even after GDP’s first contraction since records began, observers say
China has made modernising its military and expanding its weaponry a priority. Photo: Xinhua
China’s upcoming defence budget will be only slightly hit by the economic downturn that followed the coronavirus outbreak, and a modest increase is still expected as it continues to develop its military capability, analysts said.
The government’s military budget is expected to be revealed, as is the norm, at this year’s session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislative body. Delayed by over two months because of the pandemic, it will finally be convened on May 22.
Last year the defence expenditure announced at the NPC session was
China has said its military expenditure has always been kept below 2 per cent of its GDP over the past 30 years, although its official figures have long been described by Western observers as opaque, with significant omissions of important items.
The South China Sea dispute explained
In a report earlier this week, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China’s actual military spending in 2019 was US$261 billion, the world’s second highest, after the United States’ US$732 billion.
John Lee, adjunct professor at the University of Sydney and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, estimated that this year the Chinese defence budget would remain roughly the same or increase modestly, in line with growth levels of recent years.
“In the current environment, Beijing is keen to emphasise that China has recovered substantially from Covid-19 and that its power trajectory is unaffected by recent events,” Lee said. “At the same time, it would be aware of the anger towards the Communist Party for allowing the virus to become a pandemic.
“Regardless of what the reality might be, I would be surprised if there were a dramatic increase or a significant cut.”
First made-in-China aircraft carrier, the Shandong, enters service
China’s GDP suffered a 6.8 per cent decline in the first quarter, the first contraction since quarterly records began in 1992, after an extensive shutdown while it contained its coronavirus outbreak. However, the official increases in the military budget have since 2011 always exceeded overall GDP growth.
The Chinese government may focus more on job creation, social welfare and poverty alleviation, but not at the expense of military investment, according to Collin Koh, research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“I tend to think it will be more or less the same,” Koh said. “To reduce [the budget] may send the wrong signal to would-be adversaries, both domestic and external: that Beijing has lost the will to keep up its military modernisation to assert core national interests.”
PLA flexes military muscle near Taiwan ‘in show of Covid-19 control’
15 Apr 2020
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began a massive – and costly – reform in 2015, with a personnel reshuffle, change in structure, upgraded equipment and enhanced training to better resemble battle scenarios. That was supposed to be complete this year.
Given the deteriorating relationship with the United States and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, the PLA faces challenges requiring a steady increase in investment, according to Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping.
Taiwan shows off its military power after presidential election
Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong predicted there would still be about 6-7 per cent growth in the budget “no matter what”.
“The PLA played an important role in the fight against the contagion, so a decrease in spending would not be accepted,” Wong said.
That role included the deployment of more than 4,000 military medics to help treat Covid-19 patients, and helping to transport medical supplies.
Wong said it would be a crucial year for the PLA in completing its preparation for potential military action against Taiwan, which would be so strategically important that “[President] Xi Jinping himself would never allow it to be affected by a shortage of funding”.
China’s military draws on 6G dream to modernise its fighting forces
18 Apr 2020
But a slight increase in budget would be sufficient to meet defence needs and maintain a deterrence against potential threats, including preventing self-ruled Taiwan taking the opportunity to declare independence, naval expert Li Jie said.
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Its relationship with Taipei has been strained, and dialogue halted, since Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected the island’s president in 2016. Tsai was re-elected for a second term in January.
Li estimated that the budget would probably be kept at the same level or show a “slight” increase from last year.
“It would feed the ‘China threat’ theory and raise international concerns if the Chinese government expands military spending too much,” he said.
– The last nine poverty-stricken county-level regions in east China’s Anhui Province have been removed from the country’s list of impoverished counties.
– This marks that all county-level regions in the Yangtze River Delta, consisting of Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, have been officially lifted out of poverty for the first time in history.
HEFEI, April 29 (Xinhua) — Sitting in front of his smartphone, Zhang Chuanfeng touts dried sweet potatoes to viewers on China’s popular video-sharing app Douyin, also known as TikTok.
“These are made from sweet potatoes I grew myself. They are sweet and have an excellent texture,” said Zhang while livestreaming in Tangjiahui Township of Jinzhai County in east China’s Anhui Province. Tucked away in the boundless Dabie Mountains, the township used to have the biggest poor population in the county.
Aerial photo taken on April 16, 2020 shows residential buildings in Dawan Village of Jinzhai County, east China’s Anhui Province. (Xinhua/Liu Junxi)
Jinzhai County is among the last nine county-level regions in Anhui that have been removed from the country’s list of impoverished counties, according to an announcement issued by the provincial government Wednesday. They are also the last group of county-level regions that bid farewell to poverty in the Yangtze River Delta.
E-COMMERCE
Zhang might seem like a typical e-commerce businessman reaping success in China’s booming livestreaming industry. But his road to success has been a lot bumpier: he suffers from dwarfism.
A little more than 1.4 meters tall, Zhang has a babyface, making him “look like a junior school student,” he said. But the man, 38, is the father of a nine-year-old boy.
For Zhang, life was tough before 2014. “Nobody wanted me because of my ‘disabilities’ when I went out to look for jobs,” he said. “I was turned down again and again.”
Zhang was put on the government’s poverty list in 2014 as China implemented targeted poverty-relief measures. With the help of local officials, he got a bank loan of 10,000 yuan (about 1,400 U.S. dollars) and bought 22 lambs. He tended the animals whole-heartedly and seized every opportunity to learn how to raise them more professionally.
Zhang Chuanfeng feeds his lambs in Zhufan Village of Jinzhai County, east China’s Anhui Province, April 26, 2017. (Xinhua/Zhang Duan)
Within a year, the number of his lambs expanded to hundreds. In 2016, Zhang’s earnings exceeded 100,000 yuan, more than enough for him to cast off poverty.
Riding on this success, Zhang began to seek new opportunities. He rented a shop and started selling products online to embrace an e-commerce strategy the local government introduced in 2017.
More than 100 online shops, including Zhang’s, in the county have helped more than 7,000 poverty-stricken households sell about 73 million yuan worth of local specialties since 2018. Zhang alone earned 500,000 yuan from a sales revenue of 5 million yuan last year.
A villager arranges local specialties for sale at Dawan Village of Jinzhai County, east China’s Anhui Province, April 17, 2020. (Xinhua/Liu Junxi)
WICKERWORK SUCCESS
About 100 km north of Jinzhai lies Funan, a place that used to be vulnerable to constant floods.
Zhang Chaoling, who lives by the Huaihe River in Funan County, had to flee her hometown at a young age due to floods, but has flourished on a willow plantation along the river later.
“The land is largely covered by silt following continual flooding in the past. It is an ideal place to plant willows and make wickerwork,” Zhang said.
Zhang left her hometown for Guangzhou in 1993 and found a job in a garment factory. A few years later, she founded a trading company with her husband in Guangzhou, selling wickerwork products from her hometown to other countries.
Zhang returned to her hometown and set up a wickerwork production base in 2011. Funan is famous for its delicate wickerwork. Skilled craftsmen traditionally use local willow as a raw material to weave products such as baskets, furniture and home decorations.
A villager arranges wickerwork products in Funan County, east China’s Anhui Province, April 15, 2020. (Photo by Zhou Mu/Xinhua)
“The flood is well controlled now. I remember the last huge flood came in 2007,” Zhang said.
Taking advantage of the fertile land along the Huaihe River, she plants over 130 hectares of willow trees and employs hundreds of locals mostly in their 50s and 60s.
“I can process 100 to 150 kg of willow twigs per day, from which I make around 80 yuan,” said Geng Shifen, who peels willow twigs with a clamp next to the plantation.
A total of 130,000 people are engaged in the wickerwork industry in Funan, creating an output of nearly 9 billion yuan in 2019, and helping 15,000 locals shake off poverty, local statistics showed.
POVERTY REDUCTION FEAT
The Anhui provincial government Wednesday announced that its last nine county-level regions including Jinzhai and Funan are removed from the country’s list of impoverished counties.
This marks that all 31 impoverished county-level regions in Anhui have shaken off poverty, echoing China’s efforts to eradicate absolute poverty by the end of 2020.
With the announcement, all county-level regions in the Yangtze River Delta have been officially lifted out of poverty for the first time in history.
A bus runs on a rural road in Jinzhai County, east China’s Anhui Province, April 17, 2020. (Xinhua/Liu Junxi)
Covering a 358,000-square-km expanse, the Yangtze River Delta, consisting of Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, is one of the most populated and economically dynamic areas in China, contributing one-fourth of the country’s GDP.
Anhui had a population of 63.65 million as of 2019, official data showed. The poor population in the province had decreased from 4.84 million in 2014 to 87,000 in 2019, and the poverty headcount ratio had been reduced from 9.1 percent to 0.16 percent during the period, according to the provincial poverty relief office.
A county can be removed from the list if its impoverished population drops to less than 2 percent, according to a national mechanism established in April 2016 to eliminate poverty in affected regions. The ratio can be loosened to 3 percent in the western region.
By the end of 2019, 5.51 million people in China were still living in poverty.
“We will continue our work to prevent people from returning to poverty, and help the remaining poor population shake off poverty by all means,” said Jiang Hong, director of the Anhui provincial poverty relief office.
Hardline politicians want president to fulfil promise to overhaul constitution to reflect the self-ruled island’s political reality
A petition calls for two referendums on the issue – proposing it either be replaced with a new one or revised
The push for constitutional change could lead to a cross-strait conflict. Photo: Handout
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is under growing pressure from the hardline camp to push for constitutional change to reflect the self-ruled island’s independent status – something observers say could provoke a cross-strait conflict.
With Tsai due to be sworn in for a second four-year term next month after a landslide victory in January’s election, hardline pro-independence politicians want her to fulfil a 2015 campaign promise: to overhaul the constitution so that it reflects Taiwan’s political reality. The process has been stalled since Tsai’s first term, which began in 2016.
Leading the charge is the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, a group formed last year by a Tsai adviser and long-time independence advocate Koo Kwang-ming.
The foundation launched a petition at the end of March calling for two referendums on the constitution – proposing that it either be replaced with a new one or revised.
The existing constitution was adopted when Kuomintang leader Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT fled to Taiwan and set up an interim government in 1949 following their defeat by Mao Zedong’s communists in mainland China.
Drawn up in 1947, the constitution still puts the mainland and Mongolia under the Republic of China jurisdiction – Taiwan’s official name for itself. In reality, its jurisdiction extends only to Taiwan and its outlying islands of Penghu, Matsu and Quemoy, which is also known as Kinmen.
Taiwan’s constitution was adopted when KMT leader Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island in 1949. Photo: Handout
“We have garnered more than 3,000 signatures from the public for the first phase of initiating the proposals to hold two referendums asking the president to push for constitutional change,” Lin Yi-cheng, executive director of the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, said on Wednesday.
He said they would propose that voters be asked two questions in the referendums: “Do you support the president in initiating a constitutional reform process for the country?”
And: “Do you support the president in pushing for the establishment of a new constitution reflecting the reality of Taiwan?”
“We’re ready to send the two referendum proposals to the Central Election Commission on Thursday,” he said.
Confusion prompts call for China Airlines name change in Taiwan, but at what cost?
14 Apr 2020
Under Taiwan’s Referendum Act, the process for holding a referendum involves three stages: a proposal, endorsement and voting.
Lin said there should be no problem for the commission to approve the proposal stage since they had gathered far more than the minimum 1,931 signatures needed under the act.
The endorsement stage requires a minimum of 290,000 signatures, and if the referendum is held, they will need at least 5 million votes.
Lin said if the process went smoothly, he expected a referendum could be held in August next year, allowing time for review and making the necessary arrangements.
He said if the referendum questions got enough public support, Tsai would need to deal with the issue.
Tsai Ing-wen visits a military base in Tainan earlier this month. The pressure for constitutional change creates a dilemma for the president. Photo: AFP
Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party government has been tight-lipped over the constitutional change issue, which Beijing sees as a move for the island to declare formal independence from the mainland.
Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province that must be returned to the mainland fold, by force if necessary, and it has warned Tsai against declaring formal independence.
A DPP official said the foundation’s push would put Tsai in a difficult position.
“If she ignores the referendums, she will come under constant pressure from the hardline camp, and if she seriously considers taking action and instituting a new Taiwan constitution, she will risk a confrontation with Beijing, the consequence of which could be a cross-strait conflict,” said the official, who requested anonymity.
On Tuesday, Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, warned the island against holding any referendum on constitutional revision, saying it would be doomed to end in an impasse and would ultimately fail.
“It will only push Taiwan towards an extremely dangerous abyss and bring disasters to Taiwanese compatriots,” she said.
Chinese air force’s drill ‘aimed at signalling deterrent around Taiwan’
2 Apr 2020
But according to Wang Kung-yi, a political science professor at Chinese Culture University in Taipei, Tsai should not be too worried about the hardline camp move.
“The hardline camp has been marginalised greatly in the past several years as reflected by the poor showing in the legislative elections in January,” Wang said, adding that he expected Tsai to continue her relatively moderate cross-strait policy of not sharply provoking the mainland.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 