20/04/2020
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
Source: Reuters
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24/02/2020
- An insect-killing fungus has been turned into a mass-produced biopesticide that will face its biggest challenge in East Africa
- Current swarm has put 13m people at risk of famine and this will be the first large-scale test of its effectiveness
Young locusts in Somalia, where the fungus will be used to try to kill them. Photo: AP
Chinese factories are producing thousands of tonnes of a “green zombie fungus” to help fight the swarms of locusts in East Africa.
Metarhizium is a genus of fungi with nearly 50 species – some genetically modified – that is used as a biological insecticide because its roots drill through the insects’ hard exoskeleton and gradually poisons them.
In China it was named lu jiang jun, which means green zombie fungus, because it gradually turns its victims in a green mossy lump.
There are now dozens of factories across the country dedicated to producing its spores and despite the curbs introduced to stop the spread of Covid-19, many of them have resumed operations and are shipping thousands of tonnes to Africa.
Plague fears as massive East Africa locust outbreak spreads
These factories are set up in a similar way to breweries, growing the spores on rice which is kept in carefully controlled conditions to ensure the correct temperature and humidity.
Each plant can produce thousands of tonnes of fungi powder per year, each gram of which contains tens of billions of spores.
“I am sending off a truckload right now. Our stock is running out,” said the marketing manager of a production plant in Jiangxi province. “Some customers need it urgently. They need it to kill the locusts.”
The need is particularly pressing in East Africa at the moment, where abnormally high levels of rainfall during the dry season allowed hundreds of billions of locusts to hatch in recent months.
So far the swarms have devastated crops in countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda and are moving on to neighbouring countries.
Up to 13 million people face the risk of famine in East Africa. Photo: AFP
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned the situation could be the “worst in decades” and the resulting famine may affect 13 million people and cause international food prices to soar.
Last week, Science magazine reported that the Somalian government, working with the FAO, was preparing to a metarhizium species that only kills locusts and grasshoppers in what it described as the largest ever use of biopesticides against the insects.
Scientists do not believe that the fungus will be enough to solve the problem – monitoring the outbreak and targeting their breeding grounds will be more important in the long-run – but if it proves effective it could be an important weapon to target future outbreaks.
It will take time to gauge the effectiveness, partly because each fungus will take several days to take effect and partly because of the sheer scale of the challenge; a single swarm in Kenya was estimated to contain between 100 billion and 200 billion locusts.
By fair means or fowl: how Chinese herdsmen are planning to stop a locust invasion
The locusts have also swept eastward into the Middle East, travelling up to 150km (90 miles) a day, and are moving closer to China now that they have now reached some of its neighbours, including India and Pakistan.
At present China’s agriculture ministry believes some locusts may follow the monsoon into the country but “the chances of them causing damage is very small”.
Most scientists agree the swarms will not have lasting effect on food production but say developing countries can tap into China’s cutting-edge anti-locust technology.
Radar stations have been set up all the way along China’s western and southern borders to detect possible clouds of locusts, while unmanned devices lure the insects into traps to collect data about their species population and size.
A locust being eaten inside out by the metarhizium fungi. Photo: Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of Maryland
The data is streamed to the ministry’s programme command, which is responsible for the planning and coordination of the national efforts to prevent an outbreak.
The scientists also said that planes loaded with biological and chemical sprays were standing by.
Today, most locust outbreaks happen in developing countries that do not have advanced monitoring networks and some of them are unable to produce pesticides on a mass scale, according to Li Hu, an associate professor with the China Agricultural University in Beijing.
The Chinese locust treatment technologies were highly advanced, and usually cheaper than competing solutions from the West, he said.
Chinese researchers are now working with colleagues in other countries to help them solve the problem.
One disadvantage of the Chinese research is that it is mostly focused on local species, or the East Asia migratory locust. The desert locusts currently swarming East Africa have different genes and behaviour, and Li warned that some methods that work in China might not work elsewhere.
A giant indoor farm in China is breeding 6 billion cockroaches a year. Here’s why
There were some sightings of the species reported in Yunnan and Tibet in the past, but they did not build up to large colonies, Professor Kang Le, lead scientist of the locust research programme with the Institute of Zoology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, told China Science Daily last week.
The vast west China region of Xinjiang, which shares a border with eight countries, is currently too cold for a locust migration, but once temperatures start to rise in the spring it could see locusts swarming across the border with Afghanistan.
Shi Wangpeng, a senior government locust expert, told China Business Network on Sunday that China should be on high alert because many Afghan farms had already been affected.
“These areas share a long border with us, there are almost no barriers,” he was quoted as saying by the Shanghai-based magazine.
China has a long and bitter history of locust swarms, with more than 840 being recorded in the official records over the past 2,700 years.
One famine, in the year 628 was so devastating that even the Tang dynasty emperor Taizong was reported to have run short of food and resorted to eating the insects to survive.
China has a long and bitter history of locust swarms. Photo: AFP
This, in turn, means that China’s rulers have long been looking for innovative ways to solve the problem
In the past farmers tried remedies such as building huge fires, burying the insects in ditches or trying to kill them with sticks.
In one campaign organised by prime minister Yao Chong in 715, the farms collected 9 million sacks of dead locusts and managed to save a significant proportion of their crops, according to historic text.
In more recent times more sophisticated technologies have been deployed to tackle the menace.
Some researchers have spent decades chasing locust colonies and studying their individual and collective behaviour everywhere from coastal areas to inland deserts, and in 2014 Chinese scientists released the world’s most comprehensive genetic map of locusts.
Researchers have also developed chemical agents that can disorient swarms of locusts and disperse them.
Chinese scientists first became interested in the green zombie’s potential in the 1980s after discovering that South Pacific islanders had been using them to kill insects on coconut trees.
Research by US scientists confirmed its effectiveness in the 1990s and the Chinese started importing the fungus from the United States and Britain.
Their experiments led to the development of newer and deadlier strains and mass production started in the past decade.
Other fungi or bacteria can be used to fight locusts, and some laboratories are working with agricultural technology companies to modify their genes to turn them into more deadly or precise killers.
One genetically engineered species of microsporidia, another type of insect-killing fungus, for instance, can generate three times as many as the spores to those produced by nature species, according to a document from the China Association of Agricultural Science Societies last year.
While it remains to be seen whether the current swarms will reach China, these treatments have been effective in the past and there has not been a locust outbreak in China for a decade.
Source: SCMP
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11/09/2019
- Agriculture ministry says long-term goal is achievable despite the loss of a third of domestic livestock owing to impact of disease
- Observers believe foreign producers will never be able to produce enough to satisfy the world’s largest market for the meat
A pork vendor sleeps at a stall at a Beijing wholesale market. Photo: Simon Song
China will continue to strive for self-sufficiency in pork production although its farming industry has suffered a devastating blow after African swine fever wiped out about one-third of its hog herds, officials said on Wednesday.
Yu Kangzhen, a vice-minister for agriculture, said it was unrealistic for China to pin its hope on imports in meeting the country’s demand for pork.
Last year, China consumed about half of the world’s pork but more than 95 per cent was sourced from domestic supplies, which have taken a serious hit this year due to swine fever.
The disease is deadly for pigs, although not for humans, and there is currently no cure or vaccine.
“Even at its highest level, imports accounted for about 2 per cent of China’s domestic production,” said Yu at a press conference in Beijing.
“So from the statistics alone, we can see that we must adhere to the principle of self-sufficiency if we are to meet our demand for meat, and this also explains why we have put forward a 95 per cent self-sufficiency target.”
According to Yu, the total global trade in pork last year was 8 million tonnes – less than 15 per cent of China’s total production of 54 mi
Peng Shaozong, an official from the pricing department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), expressed confidence that foreign suppliers would be interested in filling any gaps in the Chinese market.
“Imports are guided by the market. If there is money to be made [in selling to China], they will definitely come,” said Peng on the sidelines of the press conference.
Pan Chenjun, from agribusiness bank Rabobank, said China’s pork production was expected to continue to fall in the coming year, putting pressure on the country’s US$140 billion pork industry.
In July, China’s pig population had fallen by 32.2 per cent from a year earlier, and was down 9.4 per cent compared with the previous month, according to latest government figures.
However, Pan said the government’s 95 per cent self-sufficiency target was in line with market realities.
China’s domestic pig stocks have fallen by a third. Photo: AP
“In any case, the 95 per cent [self-sufficiency] goal is reasonable, as China’s pork market size is too big, and imports, despite rising this year, still represent just a small part,” Pan said.
Although China’s domestic shortfall may offer a windfall to foreign suppliers, they must obtain government approval before they could sell to China.
On Monday, Beijing approved imports from 25 Brazilian meat factories, bringing the country’s total number to 89.
On Wednesday, Danish officials completed a three-day trip to China, saying they expected to increase pork exports to China.
Danish food minister Mogens Jensen attended the opening of a new meat processing facility near Shanghai operated by Danish Crown.
China imported 230,000 tonnes of pork from Denmark in 2018, according to the country’s foreign ministry.
On Tuesday, the Chinese State Council issued a new set of guidelines to support the industry, outlining measures such as increased subsidies to boost domestic production in the face of worsening pork shortages that have sent prices to record highs.
The consumer price index released on Tuesday reinforced the bleak picture of a tight market supply as the data showed that pork prices rose by 46.7 per cent in August compared with a year earlier, almost double the 27 per cent rise witnessed in July.
Prices of pork are one of the major indicators used by Chinese citizens to gauge their well-being and, at the moment, that well-being is being eroded rapidly.
According to NDRC, China has already spent a total of 3.23 billion yuan (US$454 million) in subsidies so far this year to tackle the pork shortage crisis.
“As much as 1.1 billion yuan has been newly added under the budget of the central government, with the focus on supporting western provinces in the Yangtze River basin to carry out farm improvement works to control pollution and reduce livestock and poultry waste,” Peng from the NDRC said.
However, a report published by research firm Gavekal Dragonomics on Wednesday cautioned that the government’s plans to soften the blow on the industry might not be effective.
“As the overhaul of pig-raising practices to eliminate the disease would take years even if the government was moving more aggressively, high prices and pork shortages are going to persist,” the report said.
Source: SCMP
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