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08/05/2020

China urged to focus on domestic economy in next five-year plan to counter more hostile world

As China prepares its 14th five-year plan, researchers at one state-affiliated think tank predicted a more hostile global situation
Beijing urged to strengthen home-grown innovation and use vast domestic market to power economy post-coronavirus

A think tank linked to China’s State Council has encouraged Beijing to focus on home-grown technology and its vast consumer market over the next five years. Photo: Xinhua

China’s will face an increasingly hostile world over the next five years, meaning its policy plan should be focused on its vast domestic market, home-grown technological innovation and improving its citizen’s welfare, according to recommendations in a new paper.

The report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a think tank affiliated with the State Council, foresees the next five years presenting “major changes unseen in a century” for China, as “the strategic game between superpowers has intensified, while international systems and orders are reshuffled”.

While the report does not mention the coronavirus specifically, its recommendations suggest that China should become more self-reliant in response to the pandemic. This view represents one side of a lively debate among policymakers and scholars in China, ahead of the next five-year plan, which will come into place next year.

Between 2021 and 2025, the globalised economy which helped China grow into an economic power will be radically different, the report said, meaning it must adapt if it is to continue to thrive.

“The disadvantages of economic globalisation have increasingly stood out. Populism has risen as the global economy weakens, while countries are divided as imbalances expand. The old multilateral [trading] system is under pressure,” read the paper, part of a wave of preliminary studies offering advice ahead of China’s 14th five-year plan, a blueprint for economic and social development.

China is the only major economy that publishes a five-year policy plan and has been doing so since 1953, in a tradition borrowed from the Soviet Union. China’s own plans are broad strategic guidelines, rather than Moscow’s previously detailed command economy production worksheets.

China is currently in the final year of its 13th five-year plan, the stage during which the Soviet Union collapsed. The 14th plan is expected to be published in early-2021, but brainstorming about challenges and policy options is well under way among academics and state planning officials.

That debate is expected to feature prominently in the coming meetings of the “Two Sessions,” the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress, which is due to meet in Beijing on May 21, and the National People’s Congress, which will begin to meet a day later.

A common point in the debate is that the lessons of the past few years have shown the need to be more self-reliant. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the US-China trade war and the growing superpower rivalry have made many think that Beijing can no longer rely on the goodwill of trading partners to continue the expansion it has enjoyed since the late-1970s.

Coronavirus pandemic creates ‘new Cold War’ as US-China relations sink to lowest point in decades

In December 2017, US President Donald Trump declared China a “strategic competitor” in anticipation of the Chinese economy reaching two-thirds the size of America’s, which happened in 2018. Since then, the two have engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff battle, while the coronavirus has served to sharpen tensions and fuel arguments for further decoupling.

“Uncertainties and instabilities are clearly increasing,” read the analysis published in the academic journal Economic Perspectives this week.

Without citing coronavirus directly, the CASS researchers suggested that China should “stick to its developmental direction and concentrate on doing its own things well”.

China now has a middle income group of between 500 and 700 million people and that alone can be a source empowering China’s economic growth for the next five years, the report said.

However, China must also attempt to smooth out a major weakness, namely unbalanced growth, including the yawning wealth gap between urban and rural groups.

In terms of innovation, the researchers led by Huang Qunhui said China should rely less on foreign technologies. “China’s innovation capacity is still lagging behind developed countries. Breakthroughs in core technologies are in urgent need,” read the report.

The Made in China 2025 plan, published in 2015, stated Beijing’s ambitions to dominate future technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence. However, after loud complaints from the US and European Union, China has been forced to play down such bold innovative goals.

Source: SCMP

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01/10/2019

China anniversary: How the country became the world’s ‘economic miracle’

Local women sell produce in the market. Zhongyi market, located at the southern gate of Dayan ancient city, in Lijian, Yunnan Province in China

It took China less than 70 years to emerge from isolation and become one of the world’s greatest economic powers.

As the country celebrates the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, we look back on how its transformation spread unprecedented wealth – and deepened inequality – across the Asian giant.

“When the Communist Party came into control of China it was very, very poor,” says DBS chief China economist Chris Leung.

“There were no trading partners, no diplomatic relationships, they were relying on self-sufficiency.”

Over the past 40 years, China has introduced a series of landmark market reforms to open up trade routes and investment flows, ultimately pulling hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

Chart showing gross domestic product of US, China, Japan and the UK

The 1950s had seen one of the biggest human disasters of the 20th Century. The Great Leap Forward was Mao Zedong’s attempt to rapidly industrialise China’s peasant economy, but it failed and 10-40 million people died between 1959-1961 – the most costly famine in human history.

This was followed by the economic disruption of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, a campaign which Mao launched to rid the Communist party of his rivals, but which ended up destroying much of the country’s social fabric.

‘Workshop of the world’

Yet after Mao’s death in 1976, reforms spearheaded by Deng Xiaoping began to reshape the economy. Peasants were granted rights to farm their own plots, improving living standards and easing food shortages.

The door was opened to foreign investment as the US and China re-established diplomatic ties in 1979. Eager to take advantage of cheap labour and low rent costs, money poured in.

“From the end of the 1970s onwards we’ve seen what is easily the most impressive economic miracle of any economy in history,” says David Mann, global chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

Through the 1990s, China began to clock rapid growth rates and joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 gave it another jolt. Trade barriers and tariffs with other countries were lowered and soon Chinese goods were everywhere.

“It became the workshop of the world,” Mr Mann says.

Take these figures from the London School of Economics: in 1978, exports were $10bn (£8.1bn), less than 1% of world trade.

By 1985, they hit $25bn and a little under two decades later exports valued $4.3trn, making China the world’s largest trading nation in goods.

Poverty rates tumble

The economic reforms improved the fortunes of hundreds of millions of Chinese people.

The World Bank says more than 850 million people been lifted out of poverty, and the country is on track to eliminate absolute poverty by 2020.

At the same time, education rates have surged. Standard Chartered projects that by 2030, around 27% of China’s workforce will have a university education – that’s about the same as Germany today.

Rising inequality

Still, the fruits of economic success haven’t spread evenly across China’s population of 1.3 billion people.

Examples of extreme wealth and a rising middle class exist alongside poor rural communities, and a low skilled, ageing workforce. Inequality has deepened, largely along rural and urban divides.

“The entire economy is not advanced, there’s huge divergences between the different parts,” Mr Mann says.

The World Bank says China’s income per person is still that of a developing country, and less than one quarter of the average of advanced economies.

China’s average annual income is nearly $10,000, according to DBS, compared to around $62,000 in the US.

Slower growth

Now, China is shifting to an era of slower growth.

For years it has pushed to wean its dependence off exports and toward consumption-led growth. New challenges have emerged including softer global demand for its goods and a long-running trade war with the US. The pressures of demographic shifts and an ageing population also cloud the country’s economic outlook.

Still, even if the rate of growth in China eases to between 5% and 6%, the country will still be the most powerful engine of world economic growth.

“At that pace China will still be 35% of global growth, which is the biggest single contributor of any country, three times more important to global growth than the US,” Mr Mann says.

The next economic frontier

China is also carving out a new front in global economic development. The country’s next chapter in nation-building is unfolding through a wave of funding in the massive global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.

Map showing Chinese investment as part of the Belt and Road initiative

The so-called new Silk Road aims to connect almost half the world’s populations and one-fifth of global GDP, setting up trade and investment links that stretch across the world.

Source: The BBC

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18/08/2019

Japan seeks to counter China in Africa with alternative ‘high-quality’ development

Beijing will be watching as leaders of African nations and international organisations gather for development summit in Yokohama later this month
Tokyo is expected to use the conference to articulate how its approach to aid and infrastructure is different from Chinese projects

The Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Guage Railway, funded by China, opened in 2017. Japan has criticised Chinese lending practices in Africa. Photo: Xinhua

The Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway, funded by China, opened in 2017. Japan has criticised Chinese lending practices in Africa. Photo: Xinhua

The long rivalry between China and Japan is again playing out in Africa, with Tokyo planning to pour more aid into the continent and invest in infrastructure projects there.

Beijing – which has for decades funnelled money into the continent – will be watching as the leaders of 54 African countries and international organisations descend on Yokohama later this month for the seventh Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD).

Japan reportedly plans to pledge more than 300 billion yen (US$2.83 billion) in aid to Africa during the conference. While that might not be enough to alarm China – which in recent years has been on a spending spree in the continent – it will be paying close attention.

Japan has in the past used the meetings to criticise Chinese lending practices in Africa, saying it was worried about the “unrealistic” level of debt incurred by African countries – concerns that China has dismissed.

This year, analysts expect Tokyo will use the conference to articulate how its approach to African development is substantively different from that of the Chinese.

“So, look for the words ‘quality’, ‘transparency’ and ‘sustainability’ to be used a lot throughout the event,” said Eric Olander, managing editor of the non-partisan China Africa Project.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono gives a speech at the TICAD in Tokyo in October. Japan will reportedly pledge US$2.83 billion in aid to Africa this year. Photo: The Yomiuri Shimbun

Olander said Japan often sought to position its aid and development programmes as an alternative to China’s by emphasising more transparency in loan deals, higher-quality infrastructure projects and avoiding saddling countries with too much debt.

“In some ways, the Japanese position is very similar to that of the US where they express many of the same criticisms of China’s engagement strategy in Africa,” Olander said.

But the rivalry between China and Japan had little to do with Africa, according to Seifudein Adem, a professor at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan.

“It is a spillover effect of their contest for supremacy in East Asia,” said Adem, who is from Ethiopia.

“Japan’s trade with Africa, compared to China’s trade with Africa, is not only relatively small but it is even shrinking. It is a result of the acceleration of China’s engagement with Africa.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a group photo session with African leaders during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing last year. Photo: AP

Japan launched the TICAD in 1993, to revive interest in the continent and find raw materials for its industries and markets for products. About a decade later, China began holding a rival event, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.

It is at heart an ideological rivalry unfolding on the continent, according to Martin Rupiya, head of innovation and training at the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes in Durban, South Africa.

“China cast Japan as its former colonial interloper – and not necessarily master – until about 1949. Thereafter, China’s Mao [Zedong] developed close relations, mostly liberation linkages with several African nationalist movements,” Rupiya said.

Beijing had continued to invoke those traditional and historical ties, which Japan did not have, he said.

“Furthermore, Japan does not command the type of resources – call it largesse – that China has and occasionally makes available to Africa,” Rupiya said.

Although both Asian giants have made inroads in Africa, the scale is vastly different.

While Japan turned inward as it sought to rebuild its struggling economy amid a slowdown, China was ramping up trade with African countries at a time of rapid growth on the continent.

That saw trade between China and Africa growing twentyfold in the last two decades. The value of their trade reached US$204.2 billion last year, up 20 per cent from 2017, according to Chinese customs data. Exports from Africa to China stood at US$99 billion last year, the highest level since the 1990s. Meanwhile, through its Belt and Road Initiative that aims to revive the Silk Road to connect Asia with Europe and Africa, China is funding and building Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway and the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway. Beijing is also building major infrastructure projects in Zambia, Angola and Nigeria.

Japan’s trade with Africa is just a small fraction of Africa’s trade with China. In 2017, Japan’s exports to the continent totalled US$7.8 billion, while imports were US$8.7 billion, according to trade data compiled by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

How speaking with one voice could help Africa get a better deal from China

But Japan now appears eager to get back in the game and expand its presence in Africa, and analysts say this year’s TICAD will be critical – both in terms of the amount of money Tokyo commits to African development and how it positions itself as an alternative to the Chinese model.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a visiting professor at Pusan National University in South Korea, said the continent was “economically vital to Japan, both in trade and investments”.

“Moreover, Japan has established some strong links with African states through foreign aid,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.

“Japan’s move is driven by both economic and political interests. Economically, Japan needs to secure and maintain its presence in, and linkages with, the African states while opening new markets and opportunities,” he said.

To counter China’s belt and road strategy, Japan has launched the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor project, an economic cooperation deal, with India and African countries.

Tokyo meanwhile pledged about US$30 billion in public-private development assistance to Africa over three years at the 2016 TICAD, in Nairobi. But China offered to double that amount last year, during its Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing.

Still, Japan continues to push forward infrastructure projects on the continent. It is building the Mombasa Port on the Kenyan coast, while Ngong Road, a major artery in Nairobi, is being converted into a dual carriageway with a grant from Tokyo.

Japan is also funding the construction of the Kampala Metropolitan transmission line, which draws power from Karuma dam in Uganda. In Tanzania, it provided funding for the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (Tazara) flyover. And through the Japan International Cooperation Agency, Tokyo also helps African countries improve their rice yields using Japanese technology.

There are nearly 1,000 Japanese companies – including carmakers like Nissan and Toyota – operating in Africa, but that is just one-tenth the number of Chinese businesses on the continent.

Are Chinese loans putting Africa on the debt-trap express?

Olander said Japan’s construction companies were among the best in the world, albeit not necessarily the cheapest, and that Tokyo was pushing its message about “high-quality” construction.

XN Iraki, an associate professor at the University of Nairobi School of Business, said Japan wanted to change its approach to Africa on trade, which had long been dominated by cars and electronics.

“[It has] no big deals like China’s Standard Gauge Railway. But after China’s entry with a bang – including teaching Mandarin through Confucius Institutes – Japan has realised its market was under threat and hence the importance of the TICAD, which should remind us that Japan is also there.”

Source: SCMP

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