Economics | CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon

31/03/2015

What could happen in China in 2015? | McKinsey & Company

What could happen in China in 2015?

What do you get when you add slower economic growth, greater volatility, and rising competition to more international flights and genuine Chinese innovation? McKinsey director Gordon Orr’s annual predictions.

December 2014 | byGordon Orr

It seemed harder to prepare my “look ahead” this year. On reflection, I believe this is because political and economic leaders in China have clear plans and supporting policies that they are sticking to. You can debate the pace at which actions are being taken, but not really the direction in which the country is traveling. This means a number of the themes I highlighted for this year will remain relevant in 2015:

What could happen in China in 2015?

Author Gordon Orr discusses his China predictions with McKinsey director Nick Leung and principal Yougang Chen.

Improving productivity and efficiency will remain the key to maintaining profitability for many companies, given lower economic growth (overall and at a sector level) and the impact of producer price deflation on multiple sectors.

The impact of technology as it eliminates jobs in services and manufacturing will become even greater (but still not in government).

As a result, the government will keep a sharper focus on net job creation and the quality of those new positions. Companies will hire even more information technologists to keep up in the race to exploit technology better than their competitors.

The push to lower pollution, and now carbon emissions, will lead to even greater investment in domestic solar and wind farms, boosting the global position of Chinese producers.

High-speed-rail construction will continue domestically and increasingly abroad, as Chinese companies become the builder of choice for high-speed rail globally.

Beyond these, there are several additional themes that will be important in 2015. I describe them below.

What else may happen in 2015? – see article:

via What could happen in China in 2015? | McKinsey & Company.

Posted in China alert, Economics, Politics, Social & cultural | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Alaska, Beijing, Bering Strait, China, Eastern Europe, Economic growth, Eurasia, Gordon Orr, High-speed rail, McKinsey, Russia, United States, Vladimir Yakunin

31/03/2015

India’s Billion-Dollar Startups Balloon on Glut of Global Funds – India Real Time – WSJ

Vikram Chopra spent the past three years building an online furniture-shopping site for Indian consumers that was funded mainly by annual capital injections from a German technology incubator.

But during the past few months, investor interest in the site, FabFurnish.com, has soared, said the 32-year-old entrepreneur, who is based in the New Delhi suburb of Gurgaon. Several global venture-capital firms and hedge funds have said they are interested in investing, and Mr. Chopra is now considering another round of funding that would exceed the $20 million raised so far—even though he doesn’t expect FabFurnish to be profitable for another two years and doesn’t yet need the cash.

“A few years ago, everybody wanted to see profitability upfront,” said Mr. Chopra. “Today, it is more like how much money you need to curb the competition [and] kill everyone else.”

Global money is flooding into Indian startups as investors search for a successor to Alibaba Group Holding, the Chinese e-commerce company that raised a record $25 billion in its initial public offering last year.

Venture capitalists sank $4 billion into India last year in some 300 deals—almost twice as much money as they invested in 2013 and 14 times the level of a decade ago, according to Indian data tracker Venture Intelligence.

via India’s Billion-Dollar Startups Balloon on Glut of Global Funds – India Real Time – WSJ.

Posted in Economics, India alert | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Ellen Pao, Global money, Gurgaon, India, Indian consumers, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, San Francisco, San Francisco County Superior Court, Silicon Valley, technology incubator, United States, venture capital, Victoria Cross, Vikram Chopra

31/03/2015

China aims to double doctor numbers as cure for healthcare woes | Reuters

China will almost double the number of its general doctors by 2020, trim its public sector and improve technology as it seeks to fix a healthcare system plagued by snarling queues and poor rural services, its main administrative authority has said.

China’s fast-growing healthcare market is a magnet for global drug makers, medical device firms and hospital operators, all looking to take a slice of a healthcare bill expected to hit $1 trillion by 2020, according to McKinsey & Co.

“Healthcare resources overall are insufficient, quality is too low, our structures are badly organized and service systems fragmented. Parts of the public hospital system have also become bloated,” China’s State Council said in a five-year roadmap announced late on Monday.

The roadmap, which laid out targets for healthcare officials nationwide between 2015 and 2020, said Beijing wanted to have two general doctors per thousand people by 2020, close to double the number at the end of 2013, as well as increasing the number of nursing and support staff.

China suffers from a scarcity of doctors – partly caused by low salaries – which has created bottlenecks at popular urban hospitals leading to rising tension between medical practitioners and often frustrated patients.

The roadmap said China would also look to use technology such as mobile devices and online “cloud systems” to meet some of the issues, a potential boost to tech firms like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and its healthcare subsidiary Alibaba Health Information Technology Ltd.

China should also have digital databases for electronic health records and patient information covering the entire population to some degree by 2020, it said.

Providing access to affordable healthcare is a key platform for President Xi Jinping‘s government. However, recent probes have turned the spotlight on corruption in the sector, while patients often have large out-of-pocket expenses due to low levels of insurance coverage.

The roadmap said China would push forward the development of grassroots healthcare, a fast-growing business segment, while reining in some large public hospitals in urban centers.

The document also suggested further opening to the private sector, where Chinese and international firms have been taking a growing role in running hospitals.

“The role of public health institutions is too big, with the number of beds accounting for around 90 percent of the total,” the State Council said.

via China aims to double doctor numbers as cure for healthcare woes | Reuters.

Posted in China alert, Economics, Health | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Alibaba Group, Beijing, China, Great Hall of the People, Health care, healthcare bill, Hospital, McKinsey & Company, medical device firms, State Council of the People's Republic of China, Xi JinPing

26/03/2015

India Takes Top Spot In Producing Wealthy Households – India Real Time – WSJ

India’s affluent-household club is growing quickly.

Over the next five years, the number of such households–meaning those with financial assets of $100,000 to $2 million –is expected to jump 10-fold, to 4.9 million, according to an Economist Intelligence Unit study. In percentage terms, India ranked first among the 32 nations covered in the report.

By that same year, the total financial assets in these households should reach $879 billion, driven by significant “economic reforms, attention to infrastructure, a stable political outlook and positive investor sentiment,” according to the report.

via Report: India Takes Top Spot In Producing Wealthy Households – India Real Time – WSJ.

Posted in Affluence, Economics, India alert | 1 Comment »

Tags: Asset, China, Citigroup, Debt, Economist Intelligence Unit, Financial asset, financial assets, households, India, Mortgage loan, Net worth, Orders of magnitude (numbers), percentage terms, United States

26/03/2015

Ford aims to triple exports from India with $1 bln plant | Reuters

Ford Motor Co(F.N) has invested $1 billion in a new plant in western India which will help the automaker triple exports from the country, chief executive Mark Fields told reporters on Thursday.

A Ford logo is seen during preparations for the 2014 LA Auto Show in Los Angeles, California November 18, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/Files

Ford plans to make India an export hub for compact cars such as the EcoSport, a sub-four meter sports utility vehicle, and the newly launched compact sedan, Ford Figo Aspire, the first car to be produced at the new facility.

The new manufacturing facility in Gujarat will nearly double the company’s installed production capacity in the country to 610,000 engines and 440,000 vehicles a year, Fields said at the launch of the new facility.

via Ford aims to triple exports from India with $1 bln plant | Reuters.

Posted in car, exports, India alert, Manufacturing | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Audi, Chennai, Compact car, compact cars, exports, Ford, Ford EcoSport, ford motor co, Ford Motor Company, Gujarat, India, Mark Fields, Mark Fields (businessman), Sport utility vehicle, western India

26/03/2015

Britain launches Europe’s first yuan money-market fund | Reuters

Britain deepened its financial links with China on Wednesday with the launch of Europe’s first yuan-denominated money market fund, which allows investors to get direct exposure to China’s interbank lending market.

100 Yuan notes are seen in this illustration picture in Beijing November 5, 2013. REUTERS/Jason Lee

The exchange-traded fund from China Construction Bank International (601939.SS), China’s second largest bank, is listed on the London Stock Exchange and can be traded in sterling, euros and yuan, Britain’s government said.

London has been keen to attract Chinese banks and encourage offshore trade in the yuan to bolster its position as the world’s main centre for foreign exchange trading.

Last year Britain became the first Western government to issue a yuan-denominated bond. On Tuesday the finance ministry’s chief economist said he viewed the yuan’s possible inclusion in the International Monetary Fund‘s currency basket as a “very live” issue.

“The launch of this (fund) will provide further opportunities for British and other global investors to invest directly into China,” said Andrea Leadsom, a junior British finance minister.

via Britain launches Europe’s first yuan money-market fund | Reuters.

Posted in China alert, Economics | Leave a Comment »

Tags: ARM Holdings, Borse Dubai, Britain, China, China Construction Bank International, DAX, Equity (finance), Europe, European Central Bank, Germany, Greenwich Mean Time, Initial public offering, London Stock Exchange, money market fund

26/03/2015

Hainan Airlines to buy 30 Boeing 787-9 jets, worth $7.7 billion by list price | Reuters

Hainan Airlines Co Ltd (600221.SS), China’s fourth-largest carrier, said on Wednesday it plans to order 30 Boeing Co (BA.N) B787-9 jets as it seeks to expand international routes to tap into growing demand for overseas travel from China.

The Boeing logo is seen at their headquarters in Chicago, April 24, 2013. REUTERS/Jim Young

The order would be the biggest this year for the jet, worth $7.7 billion (5 billion pounds) according to list prices. It would also boost the aircraft maker’s 787 programme backlog to 855 planes.

China’s airline passengers are increasingly looking beyond the mainland for travel opportunities. In 2014, Chinese travellers made more than 100 million trips overseas in a year for the first time, up sharply from 8.4 million in 1998, official data show.

Hainan Airlines added two long-haul routes to North America and Western Europe last year and plans major international expansion this year, Cai Zhiquan, a brand manager told Reuters. On Thursday. it reported net profit jumped 20 percent in 2014 to 2.59 billion yuan ($417 million).

“We’ll be flying from major hubs in China to second- or third-tier cities overseas,” said Cai. “At the same time, we’ll also open up more routes from inland Chinese cities to major hub cities elsewhere.”

via Hainan Airlines to buy 30 Boeing 787-9 jets, worth $7.7 billion by list price | Reuters.

Posted in aviation, China alert, Economics, Tourism | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Airline, aviation, Aviation biofuel, Beijing, Biofuel, Boeing, Boeing 737 Next Generation, Cai Zhiquan, China, Hainan Airlines, international routes, Sinopec

22/03/2015

Chinese capital shuts third coal-fired plant in war on smog | Reuters

China’s smog-hit capital Beijing has shut down the third of its four coal-fired power plants as part of its campaign to cut pollution, with the final one scheduled to close next year, the official Xinhua news agency said on Friday.

A security personnel walks near Tiananmen Gate on a heavily hazy day in Beijing October 24, 2014. REUTERS/Jason Lee

In 2013, the city promised in its clean air action plan to bring annual coal consumption down to less than 10 million tonnes by 2017, a reduction of 13 million tonnes in just four years.

It said it would shut down all four of its coal-fired power plants within four years, a move that would cut annual coal consumption by around 9 million tonnes.

Officials also plan to reduce coal combustion in heating systems and industrial facilities, partly by switching to natural gas and by relocating some factories out of the city, and to phase out coal consumption completely by 2020.

A 400-megawatt facility owned by the Guohua Electric Power Co. Ltd was shut on Friday and replaced with a gas-fired plant. It followed the closure of a 93-year-old power station run by Beijing Jingneng Power on Thursday.

It shut its first coal-fired plant, the 600-MW Gaojing facility owned by the China Datang Corporation, last July.

Average levels of hazardous airborne particles known as PM2.5 stood at 85.9 micrograms per cubic meters in 2014, down 4 percent compared with the previous year, but still far higher than the national air quality standard of 35 micrograms.

Beijing plans to bring readings down to 60 by 2017, the municipal environmental bureau said earlier this year.

Only eight of the 74 Chinese cities monitored by the Ministry of Environmental Protection met smog standards in 2014. Seven of the 10 worst-performing cities were in the province of Hebei, which surrounds Beijing.

via Chinese capital shuts third coal-fired plant in war on smog | Reuters.

Posted in China alert, coal, Economics, Pollution | 2 Comments »

Tags: air pollution, Beijing, Beijing Jingneng Power, Burma, China, China Datang Corporation, coal consumption, coal fired power plants, coal-fired plant, Fossil-fuel power station, Guohua Electric Power Co. Ltd, Lincang, List of cities in the People's Republic of China, Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China

21/03/2015

China’s Coming Education Crisis – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Yao Xinyu, founder of a popular software hosting service called GitCafe, opted not to attend college because he felt he could do a better job teaching himself what he needed to be successful in the real world.

His parents disapproved but he stuck to his guns, studied on his own and built the successful startup after attracting 3 million yuan in capital from Greenwood Asset Management in late 2013. The 24-year old doesn’t see much chance that colleges in China will change to better meet the shifting needs of China’s economy, he said, since demand is high, their business model is profitable and there’s little incentive to adapt.

“I just decided I knew how to develop my own career,” he added.

One the knottiest problems China faces as its economy slows is a mismatch between people’s education levels and the needs of an economy increasingly reliant on technology and innovation, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said Friday in a report on China.

China’s productivity is decelerating and it’s important to reverse this “worrisome” trend given the nation’s rapidly aging population and the related prospect of slower rates of savings and investment, the Paris-based organization said.

“The knowledge taught and skills nurtured at school do not sufficiently match labor market needs,” it said. “Workplace training-based vocational education arrangements are woefully inadequate.”

While China has aggressively stepped up its spending on research, this isn’t translating sufficiently into innovation, the 34-member OECD said. China’s spending on research and development hit 2% of gross domestic product in 2013, which is above the European Union average, and has set a target of 2.5% of GDP by 2020. But innovation remains weak as measured by international patenting and trademark registration, the report said. “And the bulk of university research is not relevant for business,” the OECD said.

Many of China’s past gains in productivity were related to capital, but the country’s future focus should be on the economic benefits of better trained workers, said Angel Gurria, secretary general of the Paris-based group. “Productivity, productivity, productivity, it’s not a choice, it’s a must,” he said. “Without it, China’s not going to be able to continue growing at this cruising speed.”

China has targeted economic growth of 7% this year, a reduction from last year’s 7.4% which was its slowest pace in nearly a quarter century.

via China’s Coming Education Crisis – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

Posted in aging population, China alert, Economics, education, employment, Social & cultural | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Acceptable use policy, Central Statistics Office (Ireland), China, European Union, France, Greenwich Mean Time, Gross domestic product, Ireland, Paris

21/03/2015

ChemChina close to Pirelli deal that would trigger buyout offer | Reuters

China National Chemical Corp (ChemChina) is close to becoming the biggest single shareholder in Pirelli (PECI.MI) in a deal that would trigger a 7 billion euro ($7.5 billion) buyout of the Italian tire company.

The Pirelli logo is pictured at their headquarters in Milan March 18, 2014. REUTERS/Alessandro Garofalo

Three sources familiar with the deal, which would be the latest in a string of Chinese investments in large Italian companies, said ChemChina was discussing a deal with Pirelli’s top shareholders to buy a holding company called Camfin, which owns 26 percent of Pirelli and is 50 percent owned by Russia’s Rosneft (ROSN.MM).

Without identifying the possible buyer, Camfin said it was in talks with an international industrial group to sell its Pirelli stake at 15 euros per share, valuing the tire group at 7.1 billion euros.

It said the stake would be transferred to a vehicle controlled by the new partner, after which a takeover offer for the rest the world’s fifth-largest tire maker would ensue.

If the offer succeeds, Pirelli will be delisted. The deal comes as Pirelli’s rivals Michelin (MICP.PA) and Continental (CONG.DE) look around for growth opportunities in Asia.

State-controlled ChemChina and Rosneft declined to comment.

Previous Chinese investments in Italy include State Grid Corp of China [STGRD.UL] buying into electricity grid company Terna (TRN.MI) and gas network operator Snam (SRG.MI).

Besides Rosneft, Camfin’s owners are a holding company comprising Pirelli chief Marco Tronchetti Provera as well as Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) and UniCredit (CRDI.MI).

via ChemChina close to Pirelli deal that would trigger buyout offer | Reuters.

Posted in acquisition, brands, China alert, Economics | Leave a Comment »

Tags: Assicurazioni Generali, ChemChina, China, China Investment Promotion Agency, China National Chemical Corp, Enel, Intesa Sanpaolo, Marco Tronchetti Provera, Peoples Bank of China, Pirelli, Rosneft, UniCredit

CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon

Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon

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India’s Billion-Dollar Startups Balloon on Glut of Global Funds – India Real Time – WSJ

India Takes Top Spot In Producing Wealthy Households – India Real Time – WSJ

Ford aims to triple exports from India with $1 bln plant | Reuters

Britain launches Europe’s first yuan money-market fund | Reuters

Hainan Airlines to buy 30 Boeing 787-9 jets, worth $7.7 billion by list price | Reuters

ChemChina close to Pirelli deal that would trigger buyout offer | Reuters

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