Archive for ‘Economics’

06/02/2015

Record spending spurs race by governments for Chinese tourist dollars | Reuters

Embassies are re-writing visa rules and governments are hammering out aviation pacts as record spending by Chinese travelers sets off a race around the world for a share of the Chinese tourist dollar.

Chinese spending on international travel in 2014 rose to $165 billion from $129 billion in 2013, the biggest percentage increase in two years, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange last week.

Chinese disposable incomes have been steadily rising and would-be travelers got an additional boost in the past year from favorable foreign exchange rates, with the yuan appreciating more than 10 percent against the yen and the Australian dollar. The gains versus the euro have been even greater, at more than 14 percent, and the yuan set a record against the single currency last month.

Governments near and far are keen to get their countries onto Chinese itineraries. In November, the United States signed a landmark deal with China extending one-year visas issued to Chinese travelers to up to a decade. This year Malaysia and Indonesia are planning visa exemptions, while Thailand is considering exempting visa fees, which were briefly suspended last year. Australia in January signed an agreement with China allowing more passenger flights from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou with immediate effect.

Air traffic data for China’s big airlines confirms a rising preference for overseas travel in the world’s most populous nation. Air China’s international routes recorded 14.6 percent growth in 2014 in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), a gauge of traffic, versus 6.1 percent for domestic routes, Reuters calculations show. China Southern Airlines‘ international RPK growth was 20.2 percent versus 10.0 percent domestically. China Eastern Airlines posted international RPK growth of 4.4 percent.

via Record spending spurs race by governments for Chinese tourist dollars | Reuters.

06/02/2015

Thailand boosts military ties with China amid U.S. spat | Reuters

China and Thailand agreed on Friday to boost military ties over the next five years, from increasing intelligence sharing to fighting transnational crime, as the ruling junta seeks to counterbalance the country’s alliance with Washington.

China's Defence Minister Chang Wanquan, accompanied by Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan (L), reviews a guard of honour during his visit to Thailand, at the Defence Ministry in Bangkok February 6, 2015. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom

The agreement came during a two-day visit by China’s Defence Minister Chang Wanquan to Bangkok, and as Thailand’s military government looks to cultivate Beijing’s support amid Western unease over a delayed return to democracy.

“China has agreed to help Thailand increase protection of its own country and advise on technology to increase Thailand’s national security,” Thai Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan told reporters.

“China will not intervene in Thailand’s politics but will give political support and help maintain relationships at all levels. This is China’s policy.”

via Thailand boosts military ties with China amid U.S. spat | Reuters.

05/02/2015

Why Oil-Hungry China Isn’t Reaping Benefits From Low Prices – China Real Time Report – WSJ

China – which gets 60% of its oil from abroad — is on its way to becoming the world’s largest petroleum importer, and is already there by some measures. So in theory it stands to be a huge beneficiary of plummeting oil prices.

However, as The Wall Street Journal reports, the benefits of cheap oil for several major economies are far less clear, as governments from Europe to Japan battle fears that falling prices—in part a result of cheap energy—will deter spending by consumers and new investment by companies.

In China, cheap oil hasn’t been nearly the boon many may have thought. That is the result of several factors.

The government controls prices, meaning the drops for Chinese businesses and consumers lag those of international oil markets. China’s central government has raised fuel taxes, offsetting prices declines. Both factors add up: The government-maximum price in Beijing for basic-quality gas comes out to roughly $3.50 a gallon, once currency conversions and other factors are weighed. Compare that to the U.S., where that same gallon costs about $2.07.

Then there are the structural issues in China’s economy like overcapacity that low prices can’t fix.

“If you look at the lower oil price, it’s true China is a net importer of oil so in theory it should be beneficial,” said Vincent Chan, a research analyst at Credit Suisse CSGN.VX +0.05%. “But at the same time you have other issues like some of the structural issues that are more important in China.”

The bottom line for China: While consumers and some industries have gotten a boost from lower oil prices, the benefits have been pared by the central government’s preference for price stability. Similarly across Asia, governments have used low oil prices to unwind complicated and costly subsidies, which in recent years have kept prices at the pump artificially low for many Asian consumers.

via Why Oil-Hungry China Isn’t Reaping Benefits From Low Prices – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

05/02/2015

Falling oil prices pull India’s budget out of the fire | Reuters

Falling oil prices have been a major windfall for India: Just weeks ago it faced failing to meet fiscal deficit targets, but can now expect a budget that not only hits its targets, but also provides extra cash to support reform.

India's Finance Minister Arun Jaitley gestures during the session 'India's Next Decade' in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Ruben Sprich

The coming budget for fiscal 2015/16 (April-March), which will be unveiled on Feb. 28, is widely seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s ability to lead economic reform.

Fortunately for Modi, the economic climate has handed him a chance to pass that test with flying colours: Budget planners are optimistic that he will set Asia’s third-largest economy on a path for growth of 7 percent to 8 percent over the next two years.

“The situation is far better now than in December,” said one finance ministry official, who spoke to Reuters despite a ban on contact with the media in the secrecy-shrouded run-up to the presentation of the annual budget. “The budget will deliver on Modi’s promise of better days for the economy.”

The halving of global oil prices since mid-2014 has allowed the Modi government to raise diesel and petrol fuel taxes and cut diesel prices by 25-30 percent – a windfall gain for households as well as businesses, and dampening inflationary pressures in the economy.

via Falling oil prices pull India’s budget out of the fire | Reuters.

05/02/2015

Alibaba’s Ant Financial to buy 25 percent of India’s One97 | Reuters

Ant Financial Services Group, an affiliate of China’s Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA.N), has agreed to buy 25 percent of Indian payment services provider One97 Communications, tapping into the country’s smartphone and online industry boom.


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The companies did not provide the value of the deal, but a person with knowledge of the matter called the investment a precursor to One97 listing on the stock exchange, and said the stake was worth more than $500 million.

The deal values One97 at more than $2 billion, making it one of the most-valuable start ups in the country. One97 runs Paytm, an online platform through which users can shop or pay utility bills, whereas Ant runs Paytm’s Chinese peer Alipay.

Alibaba spokeswoman Teresa Li and One97 founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma declined to disclose the value. Sharma told Reuters that Ant would buy new shares in his company.

Paytm has benefited from the spread of affordable handsets and internet connectivity which has turned India into the fastest-growing smartphone market in the Asia-Pacific region, according to researcher IDC.

via Alibaba’s Ant Financial to buy 25 percent of India’s One97 | Reuters.

03/02/2015

Drought hits 90 lakhs farmers in Maharashtra – The Times of India

Nearly 90 lakh farmers in Maharashtra have been impacted by the drought that has devastated the kharif crop, official data shows. The figure is almost on a par with the population of Sweden.

Maharashtra is already known for its farm crisis and reports the highest number of farmer’s suicides in the country. The drought — brought on by a delayed and inadequate monsoon — is set to deepen the distress for its cultivators.

It comes close on the heels of the crop distress wreaked by the hailstorms last year which hit cultivators hard.

Data with the agriculture department show that two-thirds of the state’s 1.37crore farmers have been affected by the drought which has impacted mainly the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions. These areas have historically been the most deprived in the state.


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via Drought hits 90 lakhs farmers in Maharashtra – The Times of India.

03/02/2015

Shanghai’s economy: GDP apostasy | The Economist

IN AN officially atheist country, one form of worship actively encouraged by the Chinese government has been devotion to GDP. From village chiefs to national leaders, presiding over fast economic growth has been the surest path to career success. Targets for GDP have formed the centrepiece of annual budgets, with officials convinced that failure to achieve them would lead to soaring unemployment and even chaos. Officials fiddle the numbers—massaging them up when growth is too slow and down when it is too fast—but basic faith in GDP as the most powerful expression of their aims and accomplishments has been unwavering.

So the break with tradition was something akin to Vatican II, when on January 25th the Shanghai government announced its policy plans for 2015 and chose to omit a GDP target. While Yang Xiong, the mayor, pledged that the city would “maintain steady growth”, he gave no indication of what that might mean in numbers. In recent years China’s 31 provinces and mega-cities have steadily lowered their GDP targets as the economy has slowed. At least two-thirds missed their goals last year, a sign that such targets have become less important than in the past. But Shanghai is the first to dispense with a target altogether. The city’s Communist Party chief, Han Zheng, is a member of the ruling Politburo, so the omission was a powerful signal.

China’s leaders are still very keen on GDP. When growth slowed sharply early last year officials ramped up spending on infrastructure, a spending boost that helped the central government to come in just one-tenth of a percentage-point shy of its growth target of 7.5% last year. But leaders have been calling for more attention to economic quality rather than just quantity. They want to end an investment-heavy approach that has damaged the environment and led to a dangerous build-up of debt. Ending a fixation on GDP targets will be a great help.

With no such target to cling to, or to blush at when missed, Shanghai officials now have more scope to work on other things. Transforming the city’s free-trade zone, much hyped but little used, into a real testing ground for financial reforms, as was initially intended, is a priority. “Officials will feel less pressure to meet short-term investment objectives,” says Zhu Ning of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. Mr Yang, the mayor, says Shanghai wants to create 500,000 new jobs this year. That will only be possible if the economy remains strong. But quite what level of GDP is needed to foster such job creation is uncertain, especially as labour-intensive services come to dominate the city’s economy. So it is sensible to follow the example of other countries and focus more on employment levels than GDP.

For China as a whole, it is too soon to expect an end to GDP targeting. It will remain an important policy tool for guiding and evaluating officials, especially in poorer parts of the country where faster growth is needed to narrow the gap with coastal cities. Tibet is shooting for 12% growth this year, the same target as it set, and achieved, in 2014. But Shanghai’s example proves that, even in the grand temple of China, the cult of GDP is losing adherents.

via Shanghai’s economy: GDP apostasy | The Economist.

03/02/2015

Mines Shut as China Burns Less Coal – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Yu County, a sprawling mountainous area in China’s northern industrial province of Hebei, is known for its ancient temples and coal mines. These days, the temples remain, but the mines are vanishing. As the WSJ’s Chuin-Wei Yap and Rhiannon Hoyle report:

“We used to have around 300 coal mines in the area. Now it’s down to 70-plus,” said a manager of a local pit who identified himself only as Mr. Cheng. Shrinking profit margins and a failure to meet safety standards have led many to close, Mr. Cheng said. His own midsize company, Kanghe Coal Mining Co., was swallowed by a larger competitor, state-owned Kailuan Group Co., last year.

What is happening in Yu County is an illustration of the bleak times for the global coal industry. Tougher environmental standards coupled with shrinking demand have led to the closing of mines across China and sent coal prices to their lowest in six years. China’s coal output likely fell 2.5% in 2014, the first annual decline in 14 years, the China Coal Industry Association said last week. And while full-year data aren’t yet available, official statistics show China consumed 1.1% less coal in the first three quarters of 2014 than a year earlier.

via Mines Shut as China Burns Less Coal – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

03/02/2015

China says 90 percent of cities failed to meet air standards in 2014 | Reuters

Nearly 90 percent of China’s big cities failed to meet air quality standards in 2014, but that was still an improvement on 2013 as the country’s “war on pollution” began to take effect, the environment ministry said on Monday.

The Ministry of Environmental Protection said on its website (www.mep.gov.cn) that only eight of the 74 cities it monitors managed to meet national standards in 2014 on a series of pollution measures such as PM2.5, which is a reading of particles found in the air, carbon monoxide and ozone.

Amid growing public disquiet about smog and other environmental risks, China said last year it would “declare war on pollution” and it has started to eliminate substandard industrial capacity and reduce coal consumption.

In 2013, only three cities – Haikou on the island province of Hainan, the Tibetan capital of Lhasa and the coastal resort city of Zhoushan – met the standards.

They were joined in 2014 by Shenzhen, Huizhou and Zhuhai in southeast Guangdong province, Fuzhou in neighboring Fujian and Kunming in the southwest.

Of the 10 worst-performing cities in 2014, seven were located in the heavy industrial province of Hebei, which surrounds the capital, Beijing, the ministry said. The cities of Baoding, Xingtai, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan and Hengshui, all in Hebei, filled the top six places.

via China says 90 percent of cities failed to meet air standards in 2014 | Reuters.

31/01/2015

China’s Provinces Lower Their Sights After Most Miss Economic Targets – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Most Chinese provinces missed their economic growth targets for last year, according to figures published Friday, in what would only recently have been an unthinkable event but is another sign of the economy’s rapid deceleration.

Out of 31 provinces and province-like administrative regions, 27 missed their marks, while one met its target and three have yet to report their performance, according to the Beijing News, a state-run newspaper.

Growth targets have been seen for decades as ironbound objectives, by Chinese officialdom, from Beijing on down. Provinces have typically competed to outdo the national target—which has ranged around 7% to 8%–setting their own goals higher and then making sure they exceed them, and with good reason: Growth factors heavily in the performance assessments for mayors, governors and other officials seeking promotions to higher office.

via China’s Provinces Lower Their Sights After Most Miss Economic Targets – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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