Archive for ‘Economics’

06/03/2014

* India’s path from poverty to empowerment | McKinsey & Company

India has made encouraging progress by halving its official poverty rate, from 45 percent of the population in 1994 to 22 percent in 2012. This is an achievement to be celebrated—yet it also gives the nation an opportunity to set higher aspirations. While the official poverty line counts only those living in the most abject conditions, even a cursory scan of India’s human-development indicators suggests more widespread deprivation. Above and beyond the goal of eradicating extreme poverty, India can address these issues and create a new national vision for helping more than half a billion people attain a more economically empowered life.

MGI senior fellow Anu Madgavkar and McKinsey director Rajat Gupta discuss India’s prospects for raising living standards and ending extreme poverty.

To realize this vision, policy makers need a more comprehensive benchmark to measure gaps that must be closed and inform the allocation of resources. To this end, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has created the Empowerment Line, an analytical framework that determines the level of consumption required to fulfill eight basic needs—food, energy, housing, drinking water, sanitation, health care, education, and social security—at a level sufficient to achieve a decent standard of living rather than bare subsistence.

In applying this metric to India, we found that in 2012, 56 percent of the population lacked the means to meet essential needs. By this measure, some 680 million Indians experienced deprivation, more than 2.5 times the population of 270 million below the official poverty line. Hundreds of millions have exited extreme poverty but continue to struggle for a modicum of dignity, comfort, and security. The Empowerment Gap, or the additional consumption required to bring these 680 million people to the level of the Empowerment Line, is seven times higher than the cost of eliminating poverty as defined by the official poverty line (exhibit).

via India’s path from poverty to empowerment | McKinsey & Company.

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05/03/2014

India Gets Record Port Investment After Tariff Is Deregulated – Businessweek

India has secured a record 207 billion rupees ($3.4 billion) of investment in port projects after it deregulated tariffs.

The nation has awarded bids for thirty ports in the year ending March 31, Shipping Secretary Vishwapati Trivedi said in an interview. The value is more than three times greater than projects awarded in fiscal 2013, he said. The projects will add 217.6 million metric tons of annual cargo-handling capacity, according to the Ministry of Shipping.

The bids will ease congestion at Indian ports where the average turnaround time for ships was about three days in 2013, compared with about one day in Singapore and Shanghai, according to a report by Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Ltd. They will also help India meet a 2020 target of more than doubling its port capacity to 3,200 million metric tons at an investment of 2.87 trillion rupees.

via India Gets Record Port Investment After Tariff Is Deregulated – Businessweek.

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05/03/2014

How Committed Is China to Reform? A Tip From ‘The Old Perfessor’ – China Real Time Report – WSJ

One of the most important questions in the global economy is the commitment to reform by China’s new leaders. Are they more reform-oriented than the last crew, who talked a lot about economic reform but often didn’t carry through?

China Real Time did a quick analysis based on the philosophy of Casey Stengel, the garrulous former manager of the New York Yankees and Mets known by the nickname “The Old Perfessor.” As Stengel often said, “You can look it up.” So we did.

In his just-delivered 2014 work report, Premier Li Keqiang, used the word “reform” 84 times in his lengthy address.  Last year, former Premier Wen Jiabao used “reform” a mere 51 times.

“Transformation?” Mr. Li, 17; Mr. Wen, 5.

What would Mr. Li like to reform? Among many other things: socialism, markets, government, agriculture, science, investment, taxes, finance and schools.

And what would he transform? Industry and foreign trade mostly.

It won’t be easy to do all this, Mr. Li warned:  “China’s reform has entered a critical stage and a deep water zone,” he told delegates to China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress. “We  must rely fully on the people, break mental shackles and vested interests with great determination.”

Or as  Mr. Stengel reportedly said: “Without losers, where would the winners be?”

via How Committed Is China to Reform? A Tip From ‘The Old Perfessor’ – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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05/03/2014

* China to ‘declare war’ on pollution, premier says | Reuters

China is to “declare war” on pollution, Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday at the opening of the annual meeting of parliament, with the government unveiling detailed measures to tackle what has become a hot-button social issue.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang gives an address during a news conference with French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (not pictured) in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing December 6, 2013 file photo. REUTERS/Mark Ralston/Pool

It is not uncommon for air pollution in parts of China to breach levels considered by some experts to be hazardous. That has drawn much public ire and is a worry for the government, which fears any discontent that might compromise stability.

“We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty,” Li told the almost 3,000 delegates to the country’s largely rubber-stamp legislature in a wide-ranging address carried live on state television.

Curbing pollution has become a key part of efforts to upgrade the economy, shift the focus away from heavy industry and tackle the perennial problem of overcapacity, with Li describing smog as “nature’s red-light warning against inefficient and blind development”.

“This is an acknowledgement at the highest level that there is a crisis,” said Craig Hart, expert on Chinese environmental policy and associate professor at China’s Renmin University.

“Their approach is going to have to be pro-economy. I think they will pump money into upgrading plants. This could be another green stimulus although it is not being packaged that way.”

China has published a series of policies and plans aimed at addressing environmental problems but it has long struggled to bring big polluting industries and growth-obsessed local governments to heel.

Li said efforts would focus first on reducing hazardous particulate matter known as PM 2.5 and PM 10 and would also be aimed at eliminating outdated energy producers and industrial plants, the source of much air pollution.

China will cut outdated steel production capacity by a total of 27 million tonnes this year, slash cement production by 42 million tonnes, and also shut down 50,000 small coal-fired furnaces across the country, Li said.

The 27 million tonnes of steel, equivalent to Italy’s production capacity, amounts to less than 2.5 percent of China’s total, and industry officials have warned that plants with another 30 million tonnes of annual output went into construction last year.

The targeted cement closures amount to less than 2 percent of last year’s total production.

The battle against pollution will also be waged via reforms in energy pricing to boost non-fossil fuel power. Li promised change in “the way energy is consumed and produced” through the development of nuclear and renewables, the deployment of smart power transmission grids, and the promotion of green and low-carbon technology.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s economic planner, said in its report that new guidelines would be issued on relocating key industries away from urban centers to help tackle smog.

via China to ‘declare war’ on pollution, premier says | Reuters.

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05/03/2014

* China signals focus on reforms and leaner, cleaner growth | Reuters

China sent its strongest signal yet that its days of chasing breakneck economic growth were over, promising to wage a “war” on pollution and reduce the pace of investment to a decade-low as it pursues more sustainable expansion.

An attendant serves tea for China's President Xi Jinping during the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, March 5, 2014. REUTERS-Jason Lee

In a State of the Union style address to an annual parliament meeting that began on Wednesday, Premier Li Keqiang said China aimed to expand its economy by 7.5 percent this year, the highest among the world’s major powers, although he stressed that growth would not get in the way of reforms.

In carefully crafted language that suggested Beijing had thought hard about leaving the forecast unchanged from last year, Li said the world’s second-largest economy will pursue reforms stretching from finance to the environment, even as it seeks to create jobs and wealth.

After 30 years of red-hot double-digit growth that has lifted millions out of poverty but also polluted the country’s air and water and saddled the nation with ominous debt levels, China wants to change tack and rebalance its economy.

“Reform is the top priority for the government,” Li told around 3,000 hand-picked delegates in his first parliamentary address in a cavernous meeting hall in central Beijing.

“We must have the mettle to fight on and break mental shackles to deepen reforms on all fronts.”

Idle factories will be shut, private investment encouraged, government red-tape cut and work on a new environmental protection tax speeded up to create a greener economy powered by consumption rather than investment, Li said.

via China signals focus on reforms and leaner, cleaner growth | Reuters.

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04/03/2014

India Plans to Manufacture Equipment at Solar Park as Glut Eases – Businessweek

India plans to add solar-equipment manufacturing capacity at a new park in Andhra Pradesh state, saying demand from plants under construction will help the industry recover from a glut of panels.

Solar Energy Corp. of India, the state-run company spearheading the industry’s development, signed an agreement with Andhra Pradesh Industrial Infrastructure Corp. for a solar park in the state that will have 1,000 megawatts of power capacity, as well as factories to produce modules and cells, Rajendra Nimje, managing director of SECI, said in an interview.

The plans come as panel prices appear to be bottoming out after falling more than 60 percent in two years amid a global supply glut. Local manufacturers, such as Indosolar Ltd. (ISLR), Moser Baer India Ltd. and Websol Energy System (WESL) Ltd., who idled about half of their 1,000 megawatts of production capacity, will get fresh orders as new projects are built, Nimje said.

via India Plans to Manufacture Equipment at Solar Park as Glut Eases – Businessweek.

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04/03/2014

Singh to Neighbors: To Boost Trade, Build More Highways to India – India Real Time – WSJ

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh addressed state leaders from South and South East Asia in Myanmar today to emphasize the need to improve trade ties by building highways connecting India and its neighbors.

Mr. Singh is on a two-day visit to the neighboring country for an economic meeting called the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation [BIMSTEC] Summit.

Addressing an audience including the leaders of Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Thailand, Mr. Singh said he would like to “improve physical connectivity” with a highway that will connect India to Myanmar and Thailand and with more maritime links with Myanmar. “And even as we develop physical infrastructure, we should simultaneously start developing the supporting architecture of rules and regulations to facilitate cross-country movements,” he said. He arrived yesterday in Myanmar’s capital, Nay Pyi Taw.

via Singh to Neighbors: To Boost Trade, Build More Highways to India – India Real Time – WSJ.

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04/03/2014

India and Pakistan ramp up aid as they jostle for influence in Kabul | Reuters

India’s most important message for Afghanistan is that it is not leaving, and it is backing that message with the biggest aid package it has ever given another country.

Afghans work at a new parliament building constructed by an Indian project in Kabul November 26, 2013. REUTERS/Mohammad Ismail

Indian diplomats insist the message is meant as reassurance for allies in Afghanistan nervous about waning international support as NATO withdraws its troops. Yet it could equally have been chosen to send a warning to India’s arch-rival, Pakistan.

The nuclear-armed neighbors both want to secure influence in Kabul after foreign combat forces leave this year, and both are using aid as part of their strategy.

India’s $2 billion aid package includes several big projects, including a white marble parliament in Kabul that is rising up next to the blasted ruins of the old king’s palace.

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are rockier. Afghan President Hamid Karzai regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting Taliban militants, and has curtly made clear he cares more about security than Pakistani aid.

Some Afghans fear that the regional rivalry might drag their country into a proxy war.

“This is a very sensitive situation. Both are powerful, important allies,” said Senator Arifullah Pashtoon, chairman of Afghanistan’s foreign relations committee.

“India is our friend. But Pakistan is our twin.”

With the NATO withdrawal looming, Afghanistan has increasingly sought Indian military assistance, while Pakistani offers of military help have largely been snubbed.

India, wary of antagonizing Pakistan, has refused to supply lethal equipment but that may change after Indian elections due by May. For now, New Delhi relies on soft power.

via India and Pakistan ramp up aid as they jostle for influence in Kabul | Reuters.

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03/03/2014

* India Looks Set to Miss Growth Target – India Real Time – WSJ

Disappointing growth in the September-December quarter means India’s economy will likely fall short of even its reduced target for the year.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation last month projected gross domestic product growth of 4.9% for the fiscal year ending March 31. Until then, the Finance Ministry had been predicting growth of 5% or slightly more — down from a forecast of6.4% earlier in the year.

Data Friday showed India’s economy grew 4.7% in the three months to December, after expanding 4.8% and 4.4% in the first two quarters of the fiscal year. That means the economy would have to grow 5.7% in the current quarter – highly unlikely — to hit the full-year mark of 4.9%.

“The economy appears to be at a standstill, both in terms of investments and consumption,” said Anjali Verma, a Mumbai-based economist at brokerage PhillipCapital. “The numbers have been very tepid, and it’s unlikely we’ll see much improvement soon.”

Some economists already are writing off this quarter, as corporate and government decision makers are expected to delay big projects until after national elections that must take place by the end of May.

Businesses are essentially in a holding pattern until they know the next government’s economic policies.

via India Looks Set to Miss Growth Target – India Real Time – WSJ.

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03/03/2014

What’s in a Number? For China’s Leaders, a Lot – China Real Time Report – WSJ

After years as a planning formality, China’s official target for economic growth is posing a problem for the country’s leaders amid confusion about the signals the goal sends — and whether it even matters.

Premier Li Keqiang will announce the annual GDP target in a speech Wednesday to the legislature.

Some economists see the growth target as a holdover from the days of the planned economy and a symbol of short-term thinking. They say officials naturally will try to exceed the goal, generating growth without regard to environmental and social ills.

“Targeting has achieved the goal of providing economic development incentives, but it also created a whole host of problems with land policy, with local government debt, with the banking system and generally rising debt levels,” said Li Wei, an economics professor at Beijing’s Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.

At issue for Chinese leaders is where to set the target, given that overall growth is slowing – perhaps even faster than Beijing would like. Setting a high target would show that the government still places a premium on growth. A lower target would signal that the government’s focus has shifted from growth at any cost to tackling debt, tax and other structural problems.

Local media, citing unidentified sources inside the government, say this year’s target is likely to repeat last year’s aim of “about 7.5%” growth. Officials may opt to soften their wording, calling the figure an “expectation” rather than a target, Mr. Li said.

For most of the past 20 years the target has been set between 7%-8%. In most years China exceeded it handily, on average by two percentage points. It missed only once, in 1998, by a whisker.

China’s gross domestic product grew 7.7% in 2013, the same as the year before. But with mounting debt and recent signs of weakness in the manufacturing sector, many economists doubt the economy can keep up a similar pace.

“I think fixing it at 7.5% will prove to be a very awkward situation for the government,” said Yao Wei, an economist at Société Générale. “It would be better to give themselves some leeway.”

via What’s in a Number? For China’s Leaders, a Lot – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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