Archive for ‘Re-balancing the economy’

01/11/2013

China’s State Council think tank sets out roadmap for reform | South China Morning Post

A top government think tank has unveiled a detailed road map for a series of far-reaching economic policy changes, in one of the strongest indications yet that the Communist Party intends to stay on the path of reform.

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The recommendations by the State Council\’s Development Research Centre came ahead of the much-anticipated third plenum of the party\’s 18th Central Committee next month, a critical opportunity for President Xi Jinping to advance his economic and social reform agendas.

In addition, their release was accompanied by a prediction from Yu Zhengsheng – the No4 member of the party\’s supreme Politburo Standing Committee – that the annual gathering would result in \”unprecedented\” reforms.

The proposals span eight areas: finance, taxation, land, state assets, social welfare, innovation, foreign investment and clean governance, according to a copy of the 10,000-word report published over the weekend by China News Service. It recommends sensitive changes like breaking up state monopolies and speeding land reforms.

The source of the recommendations was as interesting as the details. Among its authors were the think tank\’s chief, Li Wei, who served as secretary to former premier Zhu Rongji, and Liu He, a top economic adviser to Xi.

Although the road map would be subject to behind-the-scenes horse-trading during the plenum, the document was clearly aimed at restricting the government\’s role in economic matters and allowing more freedom in the market. It sets a timetable for action extending to 2020.

The report recommends an ambitious plan to make the yuan a major international trade- settlement and invoicing currency within 10 years, as well as a reserve currency in \”regional markets\”.

It highlighted three projects key to advancing economic reform: relaxing control over market access, setting up a \”basic social security package\” for all residents and allowing sales of collectively owned rural land.

The national social security package would provide all citizens with a social security card to claim modest but equal pension, medical insurance and education subsidies.

Meanwhile, the unpopular hukou system – which for decades has discouraged migration by tying mainlanders\’ benefits to their registered place of residence – would be phased out.

The road map also proposes granting farmers the right to trade their collectively owned land under a unified open market in which urban and rural lands would be valued equally.

Currently farmers only have rights to use collectively owned land and receive meagre compensation when their land is claimed by local governments for development projects. The situation has emerged as a leading cause of social unrest.

The plan proposed fighting rampant official corruption by establishing a clean governance allowance, which officials could claim after retirement if they are found to have been honest during their careers. But some experts questioned the feasibility of the reform plans, given the many possible vested interests.

\”The top leadership may view it necessary to push for reforms, to things such as land rights and the social security system, but how the ideas will be received by the interest groups remains to be seen,\” said Professor Hu Xingdou , of the Beijing Institute of Technology.

Guan Qingyou, assistant dean at the Minsheng Securities Research Institute, cautioned that the road map was only one of several research reports submitted to the top leadership ahead of the party plenum.

via China’s State Council think tank sets out roadmap for reform | South China Morning Post.

27/09/2013

Big reform plans for China’s newest trade zone set high expectations

Reuters: “China has formally announced detailed plans for a new free-trade zone (FTZ) in Shanghai, touted as the country’s biggest potential economic reform since Deng Xiaoping used a similar zone in Shenzhen to pry open a closed economy to trade in 1978.

The sunrise rises over the skyline of Lujiazui financial district of Pudong in Shanghai September 27, 2013. REUTERS/Aly Song

In an announcement on Friday from the State Council, or cabinet, China said it will open up its largely sheltered services sector to foreign competition in the zone and use it as a testbed for bold financial reforms, including a convertible yuan and liberalized interest rates. Economists consider both areas key levers for restructuring the world’s second-largest economy and putting it on a more sustainable growth path.

No specific timeline was given for implementing any of the reforms, though these should be carried out within 2-3 years, it said, adding financial liberalization may depend on adequate risk controls. Chinese state media have cautioned that dramatic financial reforms are unlikely this year.

An executive at a foreign multinational in Shanghai said his firm was waiting for more clarity. “Is this Shenzen 2.0 heralding the beginning of a new era in trade, or a flash in the pan to simply boost economic confidence?””

via Big reform plans for China’s newest trade zone set high expectations | Reuters.

11/09/2013

Changing China set to shake world economy, again

In my view, this is a ‘must read’ article for anyone interested in how China will impact their own countries and lives in the foreseeable future. It complements another recent article – https://chindia-alert.org/2013/09/11/reading-li-keqiangs-tea-leaves-at-the-world-economic-forum/

Reuters: “Long after concerns about tightening U.S. monetary policy have faded, a more profound issue will still dog global policymakers: how to handle the second stage of China’s economic revolution.

A view of the city's skyline from the Beijing Yintai Centre building at sunset is seen in Beijing, August 29, 2013. REUTERS/Jason Lee

The first phase, industrialization, shook the world. Commodity-producing countries boomed as they fed China’s endless appetite for natural resources. Six of the 10 fastest-growing economies last decade were in Africa.

China’s flood of keenly priced manufactured goods hollowed out jobs in advanced and emerging nations alike but also helped cap inflation and made an array of consumer goods affordable for tens of millions of people for the first time.

The second stage of China’s development promises to be no less momentous.

Consumption will take over the growth baton from investment. Services will grow as a share of the economy, while industry shrinks. Commodity-intensive mass manufacturing based on cheap labor will give way to greener, cleaner ways of making things.

More of the value added by a better-educated, more productive workforce harnessing new technologies will stay in China instead of going to multinational companies.

That’s the plan, anyway.

China will remain the most powerful engine of global growth for the next couple of decades, but it will no longer be just processing imported raw materials and components for re-export, said Li Jian with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, the Commerce Ministry‘s think tank.

“China has realized that it cannot blindly rely on investment and exports as the main drivers of growth. So China’s demand will be more balanced,” Li said.

HIGH STAKES

To show it is serious about more sustainable growth, China deliberately engineered the first-half slowdown that unnerved markets in order to address these longer-term structural priorities, according to President Xi Jinping.

Xi and the other new leaders of China’s Communist Party are expected to approve a blueprint for reform at a plenum in November. Overcoming vested interests opposed to the new economic model will be a stern test of their credibility.

A lot is at stake for the global economy too.

Philip Schellekens, an economist with the World Bank in Washington, said the importance of the reforms Beijing intends to make cannot be overstated. As China changes, so will the rest of the world.

“The structural transformations that we think are going to happen in China over the next two decades will matter far more than the near-term vulnerabilities,” he said.

On balance, commodity-exporting developing economies stand to be affected more than rich nations – an obvious exception being Australia, where the end of a China-driven mining boom was a big issue in Saturday’s election. China buys a third of Australia’s exports.

Commodity demand should stay strong, especially as China’s capital stock per head is only 10 percent that of America’s and urbanization has a long way to go. But rebalancing will favor commodities more closely tied to consumption than to investment.

Economists fret that too many emerging markets spent their windfalls from surging raw material prices instead of sloughing them into infrastructure and other investment. As a result, growth is slowing now that China’s demand is softening.

China’s appetite for agricultural commodities and energy should hold up well but Capital Economics, a London consultancy, said it was concerned about large metals exporters that have not saved their extra income and so are running current account deficits.

It singled out South Africa, Zambia, Chile and Peru as being particularly vulnerable.

via Insight: Changing China set to shake world economy, again | Reuters.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/china-needs-to-rebalance-her-economy/

11/09/2013

Reading Li Keqiang’s Tea Leaves at the World Economic Forum

In my opinion, this is another important article to read. It complements the Reuter’s piece: see – https://chindia-alert.org/2013/09/11/changing-china-set-to-shake-world-economy-again/

 

WSJ: “What’s the outlook for growth and the plans for reform of China’s economy? China Real Time planned an exclusive interview with Premier Li Keqiang to get the lowdown.

Unfortunately there wasn’t a time when both of us were free. So instead we read the transcript of Mr. Li’s question and answer session with executives at a closed door session at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, Tuesday.

Mr. Li’s remarks on everything from the role of government to the importance of financial reforms contained little in the way of new commitments. But coming ahead of a November meeting of senior Communist Party leaders – billed as the decisive moment for shifting China’s economic model – they raise expectations of concrete progress.

Here are the edited highlights of what Mr. Li said, and what we think it means.

“First, I think we need to get the relationship between government, the market and society right, that’s the key to economic reform, let the market do what the market should do, society do what society should do, and the government do what the government should do.”

A theme Mr. Li hit at his first press conference as Premier back at the National People’s Congress in March, and again here, is the need to get the roles of government and the market right. One of the main criticisms of Wen Jiabao – Mr. Li’s predecessor – was that he allowed the state to grow its role at the expense of a dynamic private sector. The hope among many economists is that Mr. Li will push back in the other direction.

“When there’s downward pressure on growth, one choice is to adjust economic policy, increase deficits, relax monetary policy. That might have a short-term benefit, but may not be beneficial for the future.”

Another criticism of Mr. Wen’s approach was that every hiccup in the economy was greeted with a credit- and investment-fueled stimulus. That helped keep growth buoyant and employment high, but also left a legacy of high debt and industrial overcapacity. Mr. Li is signaling he wants to focus on long-term reform rather than short-term stimulus.

“We will continue to liberalize interest rates… we eliminated the floor on lending interest rates. This is a step forward in the process of making interest rates market based, and we will keep moving forward.”

China’s artificially low government-set interest rates channel funds from household savers to business borrowers – contributing to lackluster consumption and overdone investment. Mr. Wen struck an early blow to liberalize interest rates toward the end of his administration by raising the ceiling on deposit rates and lowering the floor on loan rates. Mr. Li has continued in the same direction, with loan rates now set entirely by the market. The next step is further liberalization of deposit rates – good for savers but bad for banks, which would see profit margins fall.

“We will continue to open up the financial markets – to internal and external competition. For example… we are moving ahead with making the yuan convertible on the capital account.”

Mr. Li says he wants to allow a greater role for private firms in the financial system, and a more open capital account. Both would increase the efficiency of capital allocation. But some economists worry that with China’s state banks overextended from years of breakneck lending, rapid reforms could lay weakness bare and precipitate a crisis.

“We want to create a market environment of fair competition… Enterprises of different ownerships should all enjoy fair opportunities and conditions to compete in the market.”

Low productivity in state-dominated sectors of the economy is a key barrier to sustaining growth. Mr. Li stops short of any specific proposals, but the hope is that areas like telecoms, banking and logistics will be increasingly open to competition.

With an audience of foreign executives, Mr. Li also threw in a reference to protecting intellectual property, a key concern for multinationals that fear their technology and know-how will be pilfered by Chinese rivals.

“I can also tell you all, a few decades ago I was a farmer. That experience has helped me a lot as Premier. If the managers of this building have the experience of ‘cleaning the toilet,’ I believe they can better manage this complex.”

China’s domestic media have focused attention on this line, where Mr. Li nods to his experience as a farmer in the 1970s in inland Anhui province.The message is aimed partly at China’s students.  Anticipating close to 7 million university graduates nationwide this year, the government has been trying to encourage realistic expectation on employment prospects. High ambitions are good, but starting at the bottom is OK.

via Reading Li Keqiang’s Tea Leaves at the World Economic Forum – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/08/01/china-treads-cautiously-to-rebalance-economy/

01/08/2013

China treads cautiously to rebalance economy

Xinhua: “Despite all the heightened attention and occasional panic over China’s economic health, authorities in the world’s second-largest economy have so far remained confident of its ongoing rebalancing act.

On Tuesday, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee pledged at a meeting to keep the economy growing steadily in the second half of this year, while promising to fine-tune policies when necessary.

“The macro policy should be stable, the micro policy should be flexible and the social policy should support the bottom line. All of them should be coordinated,” read the statement released after the meeting.

The comments were seen as a reaffirmation that a stable environment is necessary for pushing ahead with reforms for long-term sustainable growth.

“A stable policy environment would not only allow time for the market to adjust itself, but also help create a favorable condition for reforms and avoid drastic fluctuations in market expectations,” said Kuang Xianming, director of economic research with the China Institute for Reform and Development.

Drastic policy changes are unlikely unless there are unforeseeable external or internal shocks, he added.

China’s economy expanded 7.6 percent in the first half of the year, slightly above the annual 7.5-percent target set for 2013, and prospects for the second half remain complicated given the sluggish external market, weak domestic strength, persisting overcapacity and growing financial risks.

Chinese leaders have so far demonstrated greater tolerance for slower growth in their efforts to switch the country’s growth model from its dependence on credit expansion and manufacturing toward one driven by consumption, innovation and services.

Instead of initiating a massive stimulus program again to lift the economy, the authorities are moving cautiously to steady growth while driving through reforms in which President Xi Jinping has called for “greater political courage and wisdom.”

Since taking office in March, the new government has been proceeding with reforms in a wide range of areas, including delegating administrative power to lower levels and easing controls in the financial sector.”

via China treads cautiously to rebalance economy – Xinhua | English.news.cn.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/china-needs-to-rebalance-her-economy/

25/05/2013

* Restraint is the new red in China

The message for restraint and austerity flies in the face of the need to rebalance the economy from a manufacturing/export led one to a consumer led one.

LA Times: “President Xi Jinping is pressing the Communist Party’s elite to cut back on lavish living amid growing public resentment. The economic effect is far-reaching.

Men pass a billboard outside a mall in Beijing this month.

BEIJING — Exports of elegant Swiss watches to China have plunged. Sales of Mercedes-Benz and other premium sedans are slowing. And high-end restaurants, coming off their worst Chinese New Year festival in years, are starting to change their menus to lure ordinary families.

At a Montblanc shop in downtown Beijing, sales clerks recall the days when they rang up as many as 10 of the top-selling fountain pens every day. And never mind the $1,400 price tag: The platinum-plated pen capped with a half-carat diamond was a particular favorite. Nowadays the store sells one such pen every two to three days, said a saleswoman surnamed Ren, adding sadly that her pay is commission-based.”

via Restraint is the new red in China – Los Angeles Times.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/04/19/chinas-growth-the-making-of-an-economic-superpower-dr-linda-yueh/

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