Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
Cathay Pacific has said it expects a “substantial” loss in the first half of this year as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak takes it toll.
The Hong Kong carrier also saw a 28% drop in 2019 profits as it struggled during the city’s political protests.
The airline is now battling with the fallout of the virus as passenger numbers plummet.
Chairman Patrick Healy said the first half of 2020 was expected to be “extremely challenging financially”.
The development comes with thousands of flights already cancelled worldwide, as airlines struggle to cope with a slump in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
British Airways, Ryanair and EasyJet have all cancelled flights to and from Italy until April, while Norwegian Air and American Airlines have also announced significant cuts to services.
Calling 2019 a “turbulent year”, Mr Healy said he expected “our passenger business to be under severe pressure this year and that our cargo business will continue to face headwinds”.
While Cathay Pacific has reduced flights to help save costs, “we expect to incur a substantial loss for the first half of 2020,” he added.
The airline reported a net profit of HK$1.69bn (£170m) for last year, down from a HK$2.35bn profit in 2018.
In other developments:
Dutch airline KLM is cancelling all its flights to and from Milan, Venice and Naples until 3 April
Austrian rail operator OBB has announced it is suspending all trains in and out of Italy – which has more than 10,000 confirmed cases of the virus – until further notice
Seat, the Spanish unit of car-maker Volkswagen, is considering temporary lay-offs at its Barcelona plant
Ride-hailing app Uber says it plans to offer an as-yet unspecified amount of financial assistance to its drivers who have to self-isolate for up to 14 days
Embattled sector
The airline industry faces a loss of revenue of up to $113bn this year, according to aviation trade body IATA, as thousands of planes are grounded amid travel restrictions across the globe.
After UK-based airline Flybe went into administration last week, analysts are warning of more failures to come for the embattled airline industry.
Earlier this week, Korean Air warned the coronavirus outbreak could threaten its survival, in a memo sent to employees.
The global spread of the coronavirus has hit both holidaymakers and business travellers. The Global Business Travel Association said on Wednesday that 43% of its member companies have cancelled business trips booked for this month.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 