12/03/2020
- China is now making more than 100 million masks a day, up from 20 million before the coronavirus outbreak, and may start to export more to other countries
- Mask shortages elsewhere once more raise the debate about an over-reliance on China, with critics pointing to a lack of US industrial policy
China was producing 116 million masks per day of February 29, including a mix of disposable and high-end masks like the American-designed N95 model worn by President Xi Jinping on his trip on Tuesday to Wuhan. Photo: Xinhua
The Liu family factory has been making diapers and baby products in the Chinese city of Quanzhou for over 10 years, but in February, for the first time, it started making face masks, as demand soared spectacularly due to the coronavirus outbreak.
The business – which employs 100 people in the Southeastern Fujian province – has added two production lines to make up to 200,000
masks a day.
And while the decision was primarily commercial, “encouragement” from the Chinese government – in the form of subsidies, lower taxes, interest-free loans, fast-track approvals for expansion and help alleviating labour shortages – made the decision an obvious one, said Mr Liu who preferred only to give his family name.
“The government is advocating an expansion in production,” Liu said. “With faster approvals, producers need to prioritise the government’s needs over exports.”
WHO declares coronavirus crisis a pandemic
The factory is one of thousands of refitted pop-ups around China making masks and other protective equipment for the first time, part of a massive industrial drive to respond to the spread of the coronavirus.
Before the outbreak, China already made about half the world’s supply of masks, at a rate of 20 million units a day. That rose to 116 million as of February 29, according to China’s state planning agency, a mix of disposable and high-end masks like the American-designed N95 model worn by President Xi Jinping on his trip on Tuesday to Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.
This exponential jump is the result of a wartime-like shift in industrial policy, with Beijing directing its powerful state-owned enterprises to lead the nationwide mask-making effort, and the country’s sprawling manufacturing engine following their lead.
For me, this is the big advantage of China, the speed Thomas Schmitz
“For me, this is the big advantage of China, the speed,” said Thomas Schmitz, president of the China branch of Austrian engineering giant Andritz, which has seen a big uptick in demand for its wet wipe-making machines in recent weeks, also due to the virus. “When you need to run, people know how to run, and this is something which has been lost in other countries since their industrial heydays.”
Chinese oil and gas major Sinopec upped production of mask raw materials such as polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride in January. This week, it set up two production lines in Beijing to produce melt-blown non-woven fabric, intended to make four tonnes of the fabric each day, which can then be used to produce 1.2 million N95 respirators or six million surgical masks a day.
The maker of China’s new J-20 stealth fighter jet, Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, repurposed part of its factory to design a mask production line, according to local media reports. The Sichuan Daily said 258 of the company’s engineers spent three days fast-tracking development of an assembly line with more than 1,200 components.
Coronavirus: From mysterious origins to a global threat
More than 2,500 companies in China have reportedly started making masks, among them 700 technology companies including iPhone assembler Foxconn and smartphone makers Xiaomi and Oppo, in an extraordinary mobilisation of resources.
The result resembles “the war effort” in the middle of the last century in the United States and western Europe, but arguably no other nation could undergo such a transformation so quickly today.
It is a reminder of what can happen in a centrally-planned economy with a strong manufacturing base, but also brings into sharp focus some of the geopolitical issues which have characterised China’s at-times difficult relationship with the rest of the world, particularly the European Union and US, over the past couple of years.
China’s dominance in manufacturing has become all the more evident as the rest of the world scrambles to shore up their own dwindling medical supplies, leading many to wonder why the world is so dependent on it for vital supplies.
The lesson for Washington is not that we need to emulate the Chinese economic model, but rather that we need to better steward the industrial base in key sectors Rush Doshi
The Italian government, which is dealing with the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths after China, is to take shipment of 1,000 ventilators, 2 million masks, 100,000 respirators, 200,000 protective suits and 50,000 testing kits from China.
Italian foreign minister Luigi Di Maio said after a phone call with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, they had agreed the
export deal in the same week that European neighbours France and Germany banned masks from being exported because of low domestic supplies.
The Italy export deal showed that “China is emerging as a global public goods provider as the US proves unable and unwilling to lead,” said Rush Doshi, the director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Washington-based Brookings Institute think tank.
“China’s ability to produce what is needed to fight coronavirus is not simply a product of its economic model – it’s also a product of its industrial capacity,” Doshi said. “The US once had this capacity too, but it has lost important parts of it. The lesson for Washington is not that we need to emulate the Chinese economic model, but rather that we need to better steward the industrial base in key sectors.”
The frustration is felt acutely by Michael Einhorn, president of medical equipment distributor Dealmed-Park Surgical in New York, who has been trying to source stock from China for weeks, “but cannot get straight answers” from vendors.
Unaware that Wuhan was still under heavy
economic lockdown, Einhorn said he placed an order with a private seller in China’s virus-stricken city last week, but that the goods had not been shipped.
“Everyone is running out here, people are panicking in hospitals and we want to be able to help our most important customers,” Einhorn said. “We are dealing with hospitals that do not have products, how in the United States of America in 2020 did this happen?”
With the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China falling daily, it is not inconceivable that the sort of export deal struck with Italian leaders becomes commonplace, although for now, it deal can be chalked up as a significant public relations coup for Beijing.
The World Medical Association is unable to specify how many masks are required to supply frontline medical staff in virus-hit areas, but said that “this crisis should be a wake up call for politicians and societies to make the necessary investment in emergency preparedness and to look into the vulnerability of our supply chains”.
Australian-listed manufacturer Eagle Health announced on Friday that it had installed production lines at its Xiamen factory in southern China to make 300 million masks a year and said it had already received orders from China and would be securing further larger orders internationally.
The group, which normally makes products including amino acids, protein supplements and lozenges in China, said it would prioritise meeting the large domestic demand, but was aware of an impending global shortage.
Eagle Health has already commenced production of its first order of 3.2 million medical masks for the Yiling Hospital Management Group in China, a process which will take 10 days. It has other smaller orders from Chinese government agencies and expects to receive more orders outside China.
The decision to make more masks came from increased demand. These are opportunities. The global demand for high quality masks will be significant Xu Gang
“The decision to make more masks came from increased demand. These are opportunities,” said chief executive Xu Gang. “The global demand for high quality masks will be significant. Imagine when the schools open. The situation will take some time to peak.”
Last week, the Australian Dental Association said supplies of masks at many practices were expected to run out within four weeks. The Australian government has since arranged a supply of 54 million masks for both the dental and medical industries.
At the same time, the US only has 1 per cent of the 3.5 billion masks it would need to counter a serious outbreak, Bloomberg reported.
While China has no quota on the volume of masks that had to be hived off for local consumption, the government has said domestic demand needs to be prioritised.
Businesses are free to export but overseas demand has yet to explode like it has in China, said Fujian factory owner Liu.
Wendy Min, sales director of Pluscare, a manufacturer based near the virus’ epicentre in Hubei province, said her company is making 200,000 masks per day, much of which are sold to the government, with exports still restricted by partial lockdown of workers and cargo transport.
“We previously exported to Europe, South America and other parts of Asia,” Min said. “But at the moment we can’t export. We are trying to discuss this with the government, but we cannot wait any more – we have to export soon.”
Min said that while she was receiving countless cold calls up until last week from people in China looking for masks, these have stopped, perhaps unsurprising given the abundance in supplies becoming available.
An influx of Chinese-made masks, though, is likely to be welcomed in other virus-stricken parts of the world.
Self-quarantine of all international travellers to Beijing as China fights import of coronavirus
Miguel Luiz Gricheno, CEO of Brazilian mask manufacturer Destra, said that his company is making 30,000 masks a day, but cannot meet local demand due to a lack of supplies, including the non-woven fabric from which masks are made.
“In disposable masks, most Brazilian companies are paralysed due to the lack of raw materials,” Gricheno said. “With the arrival of the coronavirus in Brazil, the demand has increased a lot but the main raw material comes from abroad.”
However, a short-term supply fix will not answer underlying questions about how so many countries found themselves in such dire straits, meaning the geopolitical fallout of the coronavirus will be extensive.
Decades of weak industrial policy helped elect US President Donald Trump, who said he would bring manufacturing jobs back to America at China’s expense. While he has waged a bruising two-year trade war with China in response, the current situation shows just how difficult it will be to change the global manufacturing processes, which are so heavily controlled by China.
One of the great flaws of globalisation is that everyone wanted things cheaper, but did you compromise your health care infrastructure in the process? Stephen Roach
“In the guise of trying to improve efficiency and create value for price-sensitive consumers, we’ve created a global production network that is very difficult to unwind,” said Stephen Roach, a professor of economics at Yale University and a veteran China watcher. “One of the great flaws of globalisation is that everyone wanted things cheaper, but did you compromise your health care infrastructure in the process.
Reuters reported that Trump is considering invoking the emergency provisions of the Defence Production Act, which would allow the government to instruct companies to alter production to help address the domestic shortage of medical supplies like masks. If a company is producing 20 per cent N95 masks and 80 per cent standard masks, the White House could order them to rejig the ratio, an unnamed official said.
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the White House is preparing an executive order that would allow the government to buy medical supplies from overseas in the hope that it will incentivise companies to make them within the US.
But these changes still do not give Trump the sort of sweeping powers enjoyed by Chinese counterpart Xi.
“When you have a pluralistic, democratic situation that Trump is overseeing, it becomes more unwieldy” to take the steps necessary to address a crisis situation, said Harry Broadman, chair of the emerging markets practise at the Berkeley Research Group and a senior US government official in the 1980s and 1990s.
“That is why I think Trump looks at Xi with envy, because he doesn’t have to deal with a disparity of views or democratic interests,” Broadman said. “I think Trump is at heart a bilateral guy, as you saw with the phase one [US-China] trade deal and the state-to-state purchases. That is why he likes dealing with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and Xi, because each of them can move mountains. I think Trump is very envious of that ability.”
Source: SCMP
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03/03/2020
- Plunges in official and private sector purchasing managers’ indices amid the coronavirus outbreak prompted sharp revisions of economic forecasts
- Analysts expect China to enact additional fiscal and monetary stimulus but stop short of massive support enacted after the global financial crisis in 2008
Due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, the once unthinkable scenario in which China’s economy posts a zero growth rate or even an absolute contraction compared to the previous quarter is now seen as a real possibility. Photo: AP
The odds are rising that China will report a sharp deceleration in growth – or even a contraction in the first quarter as a result of the impact of the coronavirus epidemic.
The outbreak has paralysed the country’s manufacturing and service sectors, putting Beijing in the difficult position of either forgoing its economic growth goal for 2020 or returning to its old playbook of massive debt-fuelled economic
stimulus to support growth.The larger-than-expected deterioration in the official and private sector purchasing managers’ indices for both the manufacturing and services sectors to all-time lows in February – the first available economic indicators showing the extent of the economic damage done by the epidemic – has prompted economists to slash their Chinese growth forecasts.
Several are even expecting the once unthinkable scenario in which China’s economy posts a zero growth rate or even an absolute contraction compared to the previous quarter, even though the weakness is likely to be only short-lived.
A contraction in first quarter growth would be the first since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.
A report published by the East Asian Institute at the National University Singapore noted that China could report a contraction of 6.3 per cent in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2019, while the
growth rate for 2020 is set to fall well short of the 5.6 per cent needed by Beijing to meet its economic goal.
If China still wants to achieve an average 5.6 per cent growth for 2020, it would have to engineer a growth rate of as high as 12.7 per cent in the second half of the year, according to the report by Bert Hofman, Sarah Tong and Li Yao.
“The question is whether this is feasible and whether the consequences in terms of increased debt and potentially less productive investment are worth the price,” according to the report.
What is gross domestic product (GDP)?
China’s headline year-over-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has hovering in a narrow range between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for 18 consecutive quarters until the end of 2019, but a sharp dip in the otherwise steady growth trajectory in the world’s second largest economy would send fresh warning signs about the risks of relying excessively on China as a production base and consumption market, particularly for large multinationals from Hyundai to Apple.
An official recognition of an economic contraction, even a brief one, would break a long tradition of China reporting consistent growth to prove the Communist Party’s ability to manage the economy and to rally the whole country to achieve one historical milestone after another.
insisted last week that China would realise the vision of building up a “comprehensively well-off” society by 2020, an inheritance from China’s former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and a major gauge of progress to realise Xi’s grand “Chinese dream” by the middle of the century.
One key but loosely defined parameter for achieving a “comprehensively well-off” society is that the size of the economy at the end of this year will be
double that of 2010.To achieve that, economists calculate that China must achieve a 5.6 per cent growth this year, although Beijing has been vague about the specific target, although this now seems out of reach barring massive stimulus or a redefinition of the goal.
Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, said his group has cut its forecast for the year-on-year growth rate to 2.3 per cent for the first quarter and 4.8 per cent for 2020 overall, adding that it would be next to impossible for China to make up the lost ground during the reminder of the year given the impact of the
coronavirus
on the rest of the world, particularly
South Korea, Japan and Italy, who are all major trading partners.
It will be extremely difficult, to say the least, to meet the annual growth targets for 2020 set previously. It would require massive, unreasonable amounts of stimulus, if it is at all possible, given the headwinds Louis Kuijs
“It will be extremely difficult, to say the least, to meet the annual growth targets for 2020 set previously. It would require massive, unreasonable amounts of stimulus, if it is at all possible, given the headwinds,” Kuijs said.
Instead, it would “make much more sense” for the Chinese leadership to play down the need to literally meet the previously set economic target,” he added.
Beijing’s social and economic development targets for this year have not yet been made public, even though Xi has pledged that the government would still achieve them despite the challenge posed by the virus outbreak.
The full-year targets covering growth, employment and inflation are usually released at the National People’s Congress, the ceremonial gathering of China’s legislature in early March, but this key annual event has been postponed due to the threat of the coronavirus, which has infected over 80,000 people and killed more than 2,900 in the country as of Tuesday.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics is due to publish first quarter GDP growth data in mid-April, with combined industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment data for January and February due next week.
They will offer a clearer picture of how much the coronavirus epidemic has damaged China’s growth in the first two months of this quarter, although the damage it has caused in China and the rest of the world is hard to measure because the epidemic is still evolving.
Production among manufacturing companies across China, except in the virus epicentre of Wuhan, Hubei province, have been gradually returned to normal, with firms that have close ties to local governments and access to financial resources resuming production faster than the much larger number of small businesses.
Chinese diaspora fights coronavirus discrimination in the US
The latest data from China’s industry ministry showed that only 32.8 per cent of
had restarted production as of the middle of last week, an increase of just 3.2 percentage points from three days earlier. But even among the larger enterprises the government is trying to help, many are not running at full capacity due to disrupted logistics that have impeded the delivery of raw materials to factories and finished products to customers.
A shortage of workers due to travel barriers erected to stem the spread of the virus, or local regulations that prevent factories from resuming full operations until they have implemented sufficient health safeguards, are also hampering efforts.
Foxconn, which assembles most of Apple’s iPhones in China, said normal production is not expected to resume until the end of March.
China, though, has limited its economic aide policies to “targeted” fiscal and monetary moves, avoiding the massive stimulus it undertook in 2008 in response to the global financial crisis that led to the negative side-effects of high debt and unproductive investments.
[China] will be cautious about the scale of any intervention. The size of the stimulus will likely depend on how quickly economic activity recovers on its own Andy Rothman
Andy Rothman, a San Francisco-based strategist for investment fund Matthews Asia and a long-time watcher of the Chinese economy, said China will report a sharp fall in economic activity in the first quarter and that it “is prepared to implement a stimulus”.
“But [China] will be cautious about the scale of any intervention. The size of the stimulus
will likely depend on how quickly economic activity recovers on its own,” Rothman said.
China’s ruling Communist Party has never reported a contraction in
economic growth since the country started the reform and opening up movement in 1978.
Even in 1990, when China was hit by Western sanctions following the crackdown on the 1989 pro-democracy movement, the country still reported an annual growth of 3.8 per cent.
The larger-than-expected fiscal and monetary policy stimulus will help make meeting the targets for 2020 less challengingLiu Li-Gang
In the history of quarterly GDP growth rates – China started to report such data in 1994 going back to 1992 – the lowest growth rate on record of 6.0 per cent was in the third and fourth quarters of 2019.
The most recent year that China admitted to an economic contraction was 1976, the final year of the Culture Revolution and the year when chairman Mao Zedong died.
Liu Li-Gang, the chief China economist for Citigroup Global Markets Asia in Hong Kong, said Beijing has the policy reserves to keep economic growth on track, including increasing the fiscal deficit and loosening monetary policy.
“The lower GDP growth [in the first quarter] means that larger fiscal and monetary policy easing will be needed,” Liu said. “The larger-than-expected fiscal and monetary policy stimulus will help make meeting the targets for 2020 less challenging.”
Source: SCMP
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10/02/2020
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s smartphone sales may plunge by as much as 50% in the first quarter, as many retail shops have closed for an extended period and production has yet to fully resume due to the fast spread of a new coronavirus, according to research reports.
The virus outbreak, which has killed more than 900 people and roiled China’s manufacturing industry, comes as top smartphone vendors such as Huawei had hoped China’s 5G rollout plans this year would help the world’s biggest smartphone market rebound after years of falling sales.
“Vendors’ planned product launches will be canceled or delayed, given that large public events are not allowed in China,” research firm Canalys said in a note last week.
“It will take time for vendors to change their product launch roadmaps in China, which is likely to dampen 5G shipments.”
Canalys expects China’s smartphone shipments to halve in the first quarter from a year ago, while IDC, another research firm that tracks the tech sector, forecasts a 30% drop.
Apple Inc said last week it is extending its retail store closures in China and has yet to finalise opening dates, as Foxconn, which assembles iPhones, struggles to fully resume factories.
Foxconn received government approval on Monday to resume production at a plant in the city of Zhenghzou, but its major plant in Shenzhen remain unopened.
Huawei, China’s biggest smartphone vendor, said its manufacturing capacity is “running normally” without specifying further. But like many other local peers, Huawei relies heavily on third-party manufacturers for production.
If factories cannot resume production to full capacity on time, this could delay brands’ ability to bring their newest products to market, analysts said.
Xiaomi Corp, Huawei, and Oppo, three of China’s top Android brands, are all expected to announce flagship devices in the first half.
Oppo told Reuters that while the impact of the virus will affect operations at some local factories, “manufacturing capacity can be guaranteed effectively” thanks to its plants overseas.
Xiaomi did not respond to requests for comment.
“The delays in reopening factories and the labour return time will not only affect shipments to stores, it will also affect the product launch times in the mid- and long-term,” Will Wong, an IDC analyst, said.
Globally, smartphone production will decrease by 12% in the March quarter to a five-year low of 275 million units, research firm TrendForce said on Monday. It revised down iPhone production by 10% to 41 million units, while Huawei’s output forecast was cut by 15% to 42.5 million phones.
Samsung Electronics Co, the world’s top smartphone maker, is seen the least affected by the virus outbreak as its main production base is in Vietnam, the report said, lowering its production forecasts by just 3% to 71.5 million units.
Source: Reuters
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17/04/2019
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Terry Gou, chairman of Apple supplier Foxconn, said on Wednesday he will contest Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election, shaking up the political landscape at a time of heightened tension between the self-ruled island and Beijing.
Gou, Taiwan’s richest person with a net worth of $7.6 billion according to Forbes, said he would join the already competitive race, and take part in the opposition, China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) primaries.
His decision capped a flurry of news this week that began when Gou told Reuters on Monday he planned to step down from the world’s largest contract manufacturer to pave the way for younger talent to move up the company’s ranks.
He later announced he was considering a presidential bid and hinted he was close to a decision, and then told more than 100 people packed into a temple he would follow the instruction of a sea goddess who had told him to run for president.
The sea goddess Mazu is a popular deity in Taiwan and is believed to hold sway over one’s safety and fortune.
“Peace, stability, economy, future, are my core values,” Gou said later at the KMT’s headquarters in Taipei.
He urged the party to rediscover its spirit, the honor of its members and the lost support of the youth, and to establish a fair and transparent system for the primary race.
The KMT’s primary was already highly competitive, with contenders including a former KMT chairman, Eric Chu, and a former head of the island’s parliament, Wang Jin-pyng.
The KMT has not agreed how the race should be run or how candidates will be decided.
Gou’s bid, which requires KMT approval, comes at a delicate time for cross-strait relations and delivers a blow to the ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, which is struggling in opinion polls.
China-Taiwan relations have deteriorated since the island’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, of the independence-leaning DPP, swept to power in 2016.
China suspects Tsai is pushing for the island’s formal independence. That is a red line for China, which has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control.
Tsai says she wants to maintain the status quo with China but will defend Taiwan’s security and democracy.
‘VERY PRO-CHINA’
A senior adviser to Tsai told Reuters he thought Gou’s bid could create problems, given his extensive business ties with China.
“This is problematic to Taiwan’s national security,” the adviser, Yao Chia-wen, said.
“He’s very pro-China and he represents the class of the wealthy people. Will that gain support from Taiwanese?” Yao said, adding he believed Gou would face a tough battle in the KMT primary.
Tension between Taipei and Beijing escalated again on Monday, as Chinese bombers and warships conducted drills around the island, prompting Taiwan to scramble jets and ships to monitor the Chinese forces.
A senior U.S. official denounced Beijing’s military maneuvers as “coercion” and a threat to stability in the region.
Gou has questioned Taiwan’s ties with the United States and said this week the island should stop buying U.S. weapons. He said peace was the best the defense.
William Stanton, professor at National Taiwan University and former head of the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei, said he would have concerns if Gou were to become president.
“I’d be concerned about how he would behave. He did not have a positive attitude toward the U.S.,” Stanton said.
The KMT, which once ruled China before fleeing to Taiwan at the end of a civil war with the Communists in 1949, said in February it could sign a peace treaty with Beijing if it won the presidential election.
Zhang Baohui, a regional security analyst at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University, said Gou’s run could mark the start of the most unusual election in Taiwan history.
This is something entirely fresh for Taiwan politics – here is a candidate who sees everything through the pragmatic angle of a businessman rather than raw politics or ideology,” Zhang told Reuters.
“He has no baggage and that will be a fascinating scenario.”
Gou’s news comes as Tsai is grappling with a series of unpopular domestic reform initiatives, from a pension scheme to labor law, which have come under intense voter scrutiny.
The KMT said this week Gou had been a party member for more than 50 years and had given it an interest-free loan of T$45 million ($1.5 million) in 2016 under the name of his mother, which had signaled his loyalty to the party.
Foxconn said on Tuesday Gou would remain chairman, though he planned to withdraw from daily operations.
It was not immediately clear when he planned to pull back or if his presidential bid would require him to step down from Foxconn. There were no regulations related to a company executive running for the presidency, the island’s stock exchange said.
Foxconn’s shares closed up 2.1 percent at T$91.80 ahead of Gou’s formal declaration, the highest in six months. His Hong Kong-listed FIH Mobile closed up 28 percent, tracking the strength in parent Foxconn.
Source: Reuters
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CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 