Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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As China prepares its 14th five-year plan, researchers at one state-affiliated think tank predicted a more hostile global situation
Beijing urged to strengthen home-grown innovation and use vast domestic market to power economy post-coronavirus
A think tank linked to China’s State Council has encouraged Beijing to focus on home-grown technology and its vast consumer market over the next five years. Photo: Xinhua
China’s will face an increasingly hostile world over the next five years, meaning its policy plan should be focused on its vast domestic market, home-grown technological innovation and improving its citizen’s welfare, according to recommendations in a new paper.
The report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a think tank affiliated with the State Council, foresees the next five years presenting “major changes unseen in a century” for China, as “the strategic game between superpowers has intensified, while international systems and orders are reshuffled”.
While the report does not mention the coronavirus specifically, its recommendations suggest that China should become more self-reliant in response to the pandemic. This view represents one side of a lively debate among policymakers and scholars in China, ahead of the next five-year plan, which will come into place next year.
Between 2021 and 2025, the globalised economy which helped China grow into an economic power will be radically different, the report said, meaning it must adapt if it is to continue to thrive.
“The disadvantages of economic globalisation have increasingly stood out. Populism has risen as the global economy weakens, while countries are divided as imbalances expand. The old multilateral [trading] system is under pressure,” read the paper, part of a wave of preliminary studies offering advice ahead of China’s 14th five-year plan, a blueprint for economic and social development.
China is the only major economy that publishes a five-year policy plan and has been doing so since 1953, in a tradition borrowed from the Soviet Union. China’s own plans are broad strategic guidelines, rather than Moscow’s previously detailed command economy production worksheets.
China is currently in the final year of its 13th five-year plan, the stage during which the Soviet Union collapsed. The 14th plan is expected to be published in early-2021, but brainstorming about challenges and policy options is well under way among academics and state planning officials.
That debate is expected to feature prominently in the coming meetings of the “Two Sessions,” the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress, which is due to meet in Beijing on May 21, and the National People’s Congress, which will begin to meet a day later.
A common point in the debate is that the lessons of the past few years have shown the need to be more self-reliant. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the US-China trade war and the growing superpower rivalry have made many think that Beijing can no longer rely on the goodwill of trading partners to continue the expansion it has enjoyed since the late-1970s.
Coronavirus pandemic creates ‘new Cold War’ as US-China relations sink to lowest point in decades
In December 2017, US President Donald Trump declared China a “strategic competitor” in anticipation of the Chinese economy reaching two-thirds the size of America’s, which happened in 2018. Since then, the two have engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff battle, while the coronavirus has served to sharpen tensions and fuel arguments for further decoupling.
“Uncertainties and instabilities are clearly increasing,” read the analysis published in the academic journal Economic Perspectives this week.
Without citing coronavirus directly, the CASS researchers suggested that China should “stick to its developmental direction and concentrate on doing its own things well”.
China now has a middle income group of between 500 and 700 million people and that alone can be a source empowering China’s economic growth for the next five years, the report said.
However, China must also attempt to smooth out a major weakness, namely unbalanced growth, including the yawning wealth gap between urban and rural groups.
In terms of innovation, the researchers led by Huang Qunhui said China should rely less on foreign technologies. “China’s innovation capacity is still lagging behind developed countries. Breakthroughs in core technologies are in urgent need,” read the report.
The Made in China 2025 plan, published in 2015, stated Beijing’s ambitions to dominate future technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence. However, after loud complaints from the US and European Union, China has been forced to play down such bold innovative goals.
When Kazakh actress Reyizha Alimjan arrived in Shanghai last month wearing jeans and a camisole it reignited a long-running debate over who gets a say on how Chinese women should dress
Fashion choices that would be regarded as unremarkable in Europe or North America are often seen as outrageous in the world’s most populous nation
Kazakh actress Reyizha Alimjan’s fashion choices sparked a social media storm in China last month. Photo: Weibo
When Li Xiang broke up with her boyfriend over a selfie she posted on social media, it was not just about a woman letting a man know he wasn’t entitled to tell her how to dress in public, but a matter of personal freedom, social norms and cultural tradition.
A few weeks ago, the 24-year-old media worker from Shanghai shared a photo on WeChat that showed her posing at her bedroom door in a camisole and mini shorts. Her boyfriend said it made him very “uncomfortable”, and they quarrelled.
“‘Look how scantily clad you are, and [if] that is not enough, you shared it online,’ he said,” Li recalled.
“I got mad when he said, ‘You should go and ask other men if they’d like their girlfriends to dress like that’, as if he should decide what I wear – as if I were his appendage,” she said, referring to the archaic notion that a woman is secondary to a man in their relationship.
What clothes Chinese women should or should not wear has been the subject of intense online debate in recent weeks. Photo: EPA
Their argument was not unusual in China, especially over the past month when the online world became embroiled in a war of words about women’s freedom to dress as they please.
The controversy erupted when an article defending Reyizha Alimjan – the Kazakh actress criticised for showing too much flesh when she arrived at an airport in Shanghai in late July wearing jeans and a camisole – appeared on a WeChat movie review account called Staff of the 3rd Hall on August 12.
Reyizha Alimjan was criticised for her outfit on Chinese social media. Photo: Weibo
While that perspective was supported by many women online, others disagreed and said that society was open and tolerant but that people had the right to disagree.
By coincidence, a poll about women wearing camisoles in public was launched on August 10 by a WeChat account called Cicada Creativity. About 70 per cent of the nearly 14,000 respondents said they did not dare to do so.
More than 40 per cent avoided doing so for reasons such as thinking they were “not thin enough”, but a quarter said they said no because either their boyfriends disapproved or would not allow it, or they feared they would be harassed.
Chinese women spurn Victoria’s Secret for home-grown lingerie brands
Joy Lin, a feminist from Shanghai, said the debate was so fierce because it was not just about dress.
“It’s more about people’s judgment about one’s character and morals behind what she wears,” Lin said. “If you wear revealing clothes, they would say you are asking for harassment. If you show a little skin, you are frigid. And if you are casual, they call you ‘dama’ [Chinese slang, often derogatory, for middle-aged and elderly women].”
Some women say they are often judged by the clothes they wear. Photo: AP
In her experience, Lin said that if she appeared on the streets of Shanghai – the most cosmopolitan city in China – without a bra, there would be judgmental looks from passers-by before she had walked 10 metres (33 feet).
In contrast, she did just that in Paris in July, and, “no one stared at me or came near me at all”.
“Usually, when it comes to comments about what we wear, they’re not about whether the dress matches the hairstyle or things like that, but about our bodies, whether we’re slim or not and stuff like that,” she said. “Some [comments] can be very malicious and insulting.”
#MeToo rally accuses Hong Kong police of sexual violence against protesters
While shaming women for their clothing choices has been an issue for many years, it reached peak public awareness in China after the #MeToo movement took off in the US.
The social media campaign went viral in 2017 when dozens of women accused American film producer Harvey Weinstein of sexual assaults over a period of nearly 30 years.
The #MeToo movement took off in the US in 2017 after dozens of women accused film producer Harvey Weinstein of sexual assault. Photo: Shutterstock
Lu Peng, a researcher from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said the online debate helped encapsulate conflicts between a growing desire for freedom, gender norms and generations of tradition.
“There will hardly be a consensus on such a question about whether women have the freedom to dress,” he said. “But if this discussion can make people realise that men, not just women, also face restrictions in dressing, then it’s bringing progress.”
The simplest example was to dress for the occasion, which applies to both sexes.
“We have never been free in dressing. We’re only free within a certain extent … About what to wear in public, I don’t think we should emphasise freedom only and ignore the local culture and society,” Lu said.
Keeping a low profile has long been part of the Chinese philosophy. Photo: Xinhua
In China, there is no law banning states of dress or undress in public, nor do the Han people, who make up most of the population, have religious beliefs that restrict their mode of dress. But keeping a low profile and avoiding unwanted attention has long been part of the Chinese philosophy.
“My father will also ask me not to be ‘overexposed’, because he believes it’s increasing the risk of being harassed,” Li, the Shanghai media worker, said.
“They think they mean well, but I just want to be myself. I’m not breaking any law. I want to make my own contribution in changing this culture,” she said.
Maritime authorities close off area of Yellow Sea near vessel’s home port of Dalian for naval training exercise
Analysts say trials have been faster and more efficient than those carried out by its sister ship the Liaoning
The carrier leaves the port of Dalian for a sea trial in December. Photo: Reuters
China’s first home-grown aircraft carrier the Type 001A is expected to start a four-day sea trial on Thursday, which military experts said signalled that it would soon be ready for official commissioning.
Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration issued a statement on its website on Wednesday saying a naval exercise would take place in a designated zone in the north of the Yellow Sea between Thursday and Monday, and warned other vessels not to enter the area.
The statement gave little detail about the exercise, but military experts said the location of the drill – near the carrier’s home port of Dalian – pointed to new sea trials for the ship.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator for Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television, said it would be the seventh such trial for the carrier, adding: “It is likely that the carrier will join the navy for trial runs in the coming months.”
Song said that sea trials for the Type 001A had been faster and more efficient compared with those for its sister ship, the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier.
The Liaoning started life as a Soviet Kuznetsov-class vessel, and was still incomplete when China bought it from Ukraine in 1998. It underwent 10 sea trials before being commissioned in 2012.
“China has accumulated more experience with the Liaoning and that has helped in the construction and operation of Type 001A,” Song said.
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Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said the upcoming sea trial for the Type 001A would be led by naval officers instead of the engineers and technicians from the Dalian Shipyard, which built the warship.
“Besides testing the carrier’s propulsion system and electronic communication systems, the sea trial will focus on inspection and acceptance. Both are critical parts of the testing before the ship can be handed over to the navy,” he said.
The trials will be held near the ship’s home port of Dalian. Graphic: SCMP
The 65,000-tonne Type 001A was built using the Liaoning as a prototype. It was launched in 2017 and conducted its latest sea trial in May. When it returned to Dalian on May 31 after the test it was seen to have J-15 fighter jets and Z-18 helicopters on its deck.
Li said aircraft take-off and landing exercises would be conducted on the high seas after the Type 001A formally entered service.
Both he and Song said the carrier was likely to be named after Shandong province, in line with the practice of giving warships geographical names.
Some naval enthusiasts and China watchers were disappointed when the Type 001 failed to appear at a grand naval parade held off the coast of Shandong in April to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the PLA Navy.
Chinese navy tests new Z-20 helicopter for use on its warships
Senior industry official Wang Shoujun predicts up to 30 reactors could be built over next decade
Calls for more financial and policy support for sector to optimise export trade
A Hualong One ZH-65 steam generator, part of China’s home-grown nuclear technology which it is hoping to export as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Photo: Xinhua
As many as 30 nuclear reactors could be built by China over the next decade as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, a senior industry official told a meeting of the country’s top political advisory body this week.
Wang Shoujun, a standing committee member of the China People’s Political Consultative Conference, told delegates on Wednesday that China needed to take full advantage of the opportunities provided by the belt and road plan and give more financial and policy support to its nuclear sector.
China-built reactors may have advantage over foreign competitors
“‘Going out’ with nuclear power has already become a state strategy, and nuclear exports will help optimise our export trade and free up domestic high-end manufacturing capacity,” he said, according to a report on the CPPCC’s official website.
Wang said China needed to improve research and development, localise the production of key nuclear components, and grow both the domestic and foreign nuclear markets to give full play to the country’s “comprehensive advantages” in costs and technology.
Wang, also the former chairman of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corp, said nuclear projects under the belt and road plan could earn Chinese firms as much as 1 trillion yuan (US$145.52 billion) by 2030, according to more details of his speech published by BJX.com.cn, a Chinese power industry news portal.
He said 41 nations taking part in the belt and road plan already had nuclear power programmes or were planning to develop them, and China only needed to secure a 20 per cent market share to create five million new jobs in the sector, according to the news portal.
The CPPCC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China is in the middle of a reactor building programme which it hopes will serve as a shop window to promote its home-grown designs and technologies overseas, especially its own third-generation reactor design known as Hualong One.
But the pace of construction at home has slowed amid technological problems and delays at some key projects, as well as a suspension of new approvals that lasted more than three years.
Wang, according to BJX.com.cn, said there was overcapacity among local nuclear manufacturers, but the domestic market value for nuclear equipment could reach more than 48 billion yuan a year within two years. He did not say how much it was worth currently.
Self-ruled island cannot match Beijing’s spending, but innovation can help it succeed in a one-sided military conflict, observers say
First of Tuo Jiang-class stealth warships expected to be ready by 2021
Taiwan began mass production of its Tuo Jiang-class missile corvettes on Friday.
Taiwan has begun mass production of its home-grown Tuo Jiang-class missile corvettes and high-speed minelayers as it seeks to shore up its naval forces amid rising hostility from Beijing.
Dubbed the “aircraft carrier killer”, the small but powerful corvette, which has a displacement of 680 tonnes and a top speed of 45 knots, is a state-of-the-art stealth warship built by Lung Teh Shipbuilding.
A total of three corvettes will be built under the NT$31.6 billion (US$1 billion) Hsun Hai project, the self-ruled island’s navy said.
The warship is equipped with one of the world’s most technologically advanced computer systems and built partly with high-entropy metal alloys for extra strength and durability, it said. Its stealth technology and low radar cross section makes the ship virtually invisible at sea and even more obscure when operating close to the coastline.
Armed with eight subsonic Hsiung Feng II and eight supersonic Hisung Feng III anti-ship missile launchers, the corvettes are intended to take over many of the missions currently undertaken by larger, less manoeuvrable and more expensive frigates and destroyers, the navy said.
In the event of an actual armed conflict with Beijing, the warships would also boost Taiwan’s ability to counter a much larger and better equipped rival, a concept known as asymmetric warfare.
Taiwan simulates repelling invasion as Beijing threat persists
In a ceremony on Friday at Lung Teh’s shipyard in Suao, Yilan county, to mark the start of mass production, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said the move was made possible after the navy succeeded in overcoming a number of design and technological issues regarding the warship, an earlier version of which she boarded soon after becoming the island’s leader in 2016.
Together with the construction of the high-speed minelayers, also by Lung Teh, and a home-grown submarine at a separate shipyard in Kaohsiung, Tsai said Taiwan was entering a “new era” of naval strength that would give it the ability to thwart any attempts by the People’s Liberation Army to invade its territory.
“This proves we are able to build our own warships and launch a new era of the naval force,” she said.
Construction of the Tuo Jiang-class corvettes was under way, with the first expected to be ready for delivery to the navy in 2021 and the last by 2025, Tsai said.
The first batch of four minelayers would also be ready by 2021, she said.
Taiwan has sought to counter the rising threat from mainland China by developing more of its own military hardware in recent years. Beijing’s military budget for 2019 is 1.2 trillion yuan, or about 16 times as much as Taiwan’s.
Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province awaiting reunification, by force if necessary, and suspended all official exchanges with it after Tsai, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president and refused to accept the one-China principle.
Experts doubt China’s ability to launch assault on Taiwan
Over the past three years Tsai has prioritised Taiwan’s military expansion, ordering the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology – the island’s top weapon research and development agency – to speed up production of weapons like the surface-to-air Skybow-III and supersonic anti-ship Hsiung Feng-III missiles.
Taiwan is also expected next year to begin mass production of its CM-34 Clouded Leopard eight-wheeled armoured vehicles and has set a target to manufacture 284 of them by 2023.
Four prototypes of the vehicles, which passed pre-production tests in October, are expected to take part in the island’s annual Han Kuang war games next week.
Chieh Chung, a national security research fellow at the National Policy Foundation in Taipei, said that because of the huge discrepancies in their military budgets Taiwan could not engage in an arms race with the mainland so had to be more innovative.
“Taiwan has to develop an asymmetric defence strategy,” he said. “Take the Tou Jiang corvettes, for example. Because of their high speed, stealth function, small size and powerful weaponry, they can be deployed anywhere near Taiwan’s coast and called into action very quickly to fend off enemy vessels,” he said.
“The same applies to the high-speed minelayers, which can drop mines very quickly and make it very hard for enemy ships to attack the coast,” he said.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 