Archive for ‘Julian Evans-Pritchard’

17/04/2019

China economy: First quarter growth beats expectations at 6.4%

Workers in a factory in ChinaImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES

China’s economy grew slightly faster than expected in the three months to March, official figures released Wednesday showed.

The economy expanded at 6.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, ahead of a Reuters forecast of 6.3%.

Beijing has taken steps to boost its slowing economy, including tax cuts, while trying not to inflate debt.

The world’s second-largest economy also faces softer global demand for its products and a trade war with the US.

China’s rate of growth is closely-watched for the potential knock-on effect on the global economy.

The latest growth figures were in line with the 6.4% rate posted in the last three months of 2018.

The result follow a sharp pick-up in factory output, with industrial production jumping to 8.5% in March.

Other data out Wednesday also showed improvement. Retail sales for March rose 8.7% on a year earlier, and fixed asset investment expanded to 6.3% from a year earlier.

While China watchers advise caution with Beijing’s official GDP numbers, the data is seen as a useful indicator of the country’s growth trajectory.

“There is no denying that China’s economy ended the first quarter on a stronger note,” Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said.

Beijing is forecasting slower growth of between 6% and 6.5% this year, down from a target of around 6.5% in 2018.

China’s government has been pushing to shift away from export-led growth to depend more on domestic consumption.

Policymakers in China have stepped up efforts in recent months to support the economy including cutting some taxes, speeding up construction projects and cutting the level of reserves banks are required to hold.

Mr Evans-Pritchard said there are still “some reasons for caution” in the short-term.

“But with credit growth now accelerating and sentiment improving, China’s economy will bottom out before long if it hasn’t already.”

Source: The BBC

09/03/2019

China exports saw biggest fall in three years in February

Men stand on a port in ChinaImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES

Chinese exports saw the steepest fall in three years in February, adding to worries about growth in the world’s second largest economy.

Official data show exports from China plunged 20.7% from a year earlier, as its trade war with the US took a toll.

Imports fell 5.2% and the figures sent Asia stock markets sharply lower.

Economists caution the data for the first two months of the year can be affected by the Lunar New Year holiday.

The fall in exports was far bigger than the 4.8% drop forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Imports also saw a sharper than expected fall of 5.2% year-on-year, the data showed.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics said even accounting for seasonal distortions, the figures were “downbeat”.

“Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US,” he wrote in a research note.

The US and China have placed tariffs on billions of dollars worth of one another’s goods since July, casting a shadow over the global economy.

Even though officials have sounded more positive about negotiations with the US recently, failure to achieve a deal would see tariffs on $200bn (£152bn) of Chinese goods rise almost immediately and could see the US impose fresh tariffs.

Still, Mr Evans-Pritchard said “broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi finalise a trade deal soon, the outlook for exports remains gloomy.”

The data comes as Beijing this week unveiled $298bn worth of tax cuts to boost slowing growth.

Source: The BBC

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