28/04/2020
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.
While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.
That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.
“The recovery so far has been led by a bounce-back in production, however, the growth bottleneck has decisively shifted to the demand side, as global growth has weakened and consumption recovery has lagged amid continued social distancing,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
“The expected slump in external demand has likely capped further recovery in industrial production.”
The latest official data showed 84% of mid-sized and small business had reopened as of April 15, compared with 71.7% on March 24.
Hobbled by the coronavirus, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since current quarterly records began.
That has left Chinese manufacturers with reduced export orders and a logistics logjam, as many exporters grapple with rising inventory, high costs and falling profits. Some have let workers go as part of the cost-cutting efforts.
A China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimated that the country’s real unemployment rate, measured using international standards, could exceed 20%, equal to more than 70 million job losses and much higher than March’s official reading of 5.9%.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy head at the statistics bureau, said on Sunday migrant workers and college graduates are facing increasing pressures to secure jobs, while official jobless surveys show nearly 20% of employed workers not working in March.
Chinese authorities have rolled out more support to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China earlier in April cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves and reduced the interest rate on lenders’ excess reserves.
Source: Reuters
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08/04/2019
- The mainland government will also seek to create a level playing field for businesses, most of which are privately-owned, in terms of market entry and regulation
- Small and medium-sized firms are vulnerable to trade disputes and an economic slowdown even though they contribute the majority of growth and employment
China plans to make it easier and cheaper for businesses to access credit through subsidies and certain bank loans, according to a comprehensive policy guidelines jointly released by the Central Committee and the State Council on Sunday. Photo: Alamy
China will “remove all sorts of unreasonable barriers and restrictions” to help small and medium-sized enterprises which are seen as vital to help employment and economic growth amid the trade war with the United States.
Beijing plans to make it easier and cheaper for businesses to access credit through subsidies and certain bank loans, according to a comprehensive policy guidelines jointly released by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Sunday.
The mainland government will also seek to create a level playing field for businesses, most of which are privately-owned, in terms of market entry and regulation.
“Small and medium-sized enterprises is an dynamic power for national economic and social important and is critical for expanding employment, improving people’s livelihood, and to foster innovation,” the guidelines said. “For now, they are facing problems of rising production costs, difficulty in obtaining credit and insufficient capabilities to innovate – these issues demand high attention.”
China will “remove all sorts of unreasonable barriers and restrictions, trying to ensure fair competition and provide sufficient market in terms of market entry, licensing, bidding and the military-civil infusion,” it added.
While most of the policies are not completely new, the move to pull them together into a larger policy document, which will serve as a guideline for local authorities, shows China’s intention to stabilise the domestic economic situation as its trade disputes with the US continues.
Beijing has also designed a variety of financial policy tools, including targeted required reserve ratio cuts and the use of small and medium-sized enterprise loans as collateral for medium-term lending facilities granted by the central bank, meaning banks will have more incentives to offer financing.
To further boost lending, it will also offer some exemptions for interest received from value added tax, while also providing tax breaks for small firms and start-ups, a lower social security contribution ratio and an increase in government procurement, according to the guidelines.
Small and medium-sized enterprises is an dynamic power for national economic and social important and is critical for expanding employment, improving people’s livelihood, and to foster innovation.New guidelines
The need for the Chinese government to support small businesses became even more obvious last summer when it began its trade was with the US. Small private businesses are more vulnerable to trade disputes and an economic slowdown than state-owned enterprises, which are often bigger and enjoy favourable treatments from the government and banks, even though they contribute the majority of growth and employment.
Employment is the top priority on the agenda of Premier Li Keqiang this year, as shown in his government work report revealed last month. China has vowed to create 11 million new urban jobs this year and cap the surveyed urban unemployment rate at 5.5 per cent.
Morgan Stanley economists noted that China’s real gross domestic product growth may slow to 6.2 per cent in the first quarter.
“The main drag is slower investment growth, led by property construction and manufacturing [capital expenditure] amid still-subdued export and business sentiment,” Morgan Stanley economists Robin Xing, Jenny Zheng and Zhipeng Cai said.
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the first quarter economic data on April 17.
Source: SCMP
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