Archive for ‘opposite’

17/03/2020

South Korea’s coronavirus response is the opposite of China and Italy – and it’s working

  • Seoul’s handling of the outbreak emphasises transparency and relies heavily on public cooperation in place of hardline measures such as lockdowns
  • While uncertainties remain, it is increasingly viewed by public health experts as a model to emulate for authorities desperate to keep Covid-19 in check
A woman wearing a face mask walks along the Han river at a park in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: AP
A woman wearing a face mask walks along the Han river at a park in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: AP
For weeks, the graph charting new cases of Covid-19 in South Korea rose in a steep line – a literal illustration of the rapid, seemingly unstoppable spread of the coronavirus. Then the line began to curve.
After announcing 600 new cases for March 3, the authorities reported 131 new infections a week later. On Friday, officials reported just 110, the lowest daily toll since February 21. The same day, the number of recovered patients, 177, exceeded new infections for the first time.President Moon Jae-in, while cautioning against premature optimism, has expressed hope that South Korea could soon enter a “phase of stability” if the trend holds firm.
With about 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 65 deaths, it was until recently the country with the most confirmed cases outside China – but South Korea has since emerged as a source of inspiration and hope for authorities around the world as they scramble to fight the pandemic.
South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
11 Mar 2020

As countries ranging from the United States to Italy and Iran struggle to manage the virus, Seoul’s handling of the outbreak – involving a highly coordinated government response that has emphasised transparency and relied heavily on public cooperation in place of hardline measures such as lockdowns – is increasingly viewed by public health experts as a model to emulate for authorities desperate to keep the virus under control.

Whereas China, where the virus originated, and more recently Italy have placed millions of their citizens on lockdown, South Korea has not restricted people’s movements – not even in Daegu, the southeastern city at the centre of the country’s outbreak.

Instead, authorities have focused mandatory quarantine on infected patients and those with whom they have come into close contact, while advising the public to stay indoors, avoid public events, wear masks and practise good hygiene.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on March 11. Photo: EPA
South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on March 11. Photo: EPA
And while numerous countries have imposed sweeping travel bans – including the US, which has introduced dramatic restrictions on travel from Europe – Seoul has instead introduced “special immigration procedures” for heavily affected countries such as China, requiring travellers to undergo temperature checks, provide verified contact information and fill out health questionnaires.

[South Korea’s] approach seems less dramatic and more usable by other countries, compared with that used in mainland China – Ian MacKay, virologist at the University of Queensland

“More than a week of downward-trending case counts shows that the approach in South Korea has turned around an epidemic,” said Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland, Australia. “This approach seems less dramatic and more usable by other countries, compared with that used in mainland China. If these trends continue, they will have managed to stop the growth of their epidemic.”

‘A SPECTACULAR FEAT’

The linchpin of South Korea’s response has been a testing programme that has screened more people per capita for the virus than any other country by far. By carrying out up to 15,000 tests per day, health officials have been able to screen some 250,000 people – about one in every 200 South Koreans – since January.

To encourage participation, testing is free for anyone referred by a doctor or displaying symptoms after recent contact with a confirmed case or travel to China. For anyone simply concerned about the risk of infection, the cost is a relatively affordable 160,000 won (US$135). Testing is available at hundreds of clinics, as well as some 50 drive-through testing stations that took their inspiration from past counterterrorism drills and can screen suspected patients in minutes.

“This country has a universal health-coverage system for the whole population and the economic burden for testing is very low,” said Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology. “Tests are conducted for free if you have proper symptoms.”

The massive volume of data collected has enabled the authorities to pinpoint clusters of infection to better target their quarantine and disinfection efforts, and send members of the public text-message alerts to inform them of the past movements of infected patients in their area – even down to the names of shops and restaurants they visited.

This country has a universal health coverage system for the whole population and the economic burden for testing is very low – Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology

“South Korea’s capability to test for early detection of viruses has developed greatly as it went through the 2009 new influenza outbreak and 2015 Mers [Middle East respiratory syndrome] outbreak,” said Kim Woo-joo, a professor of medicine at Korea University’s College of Medicine. “It ranks among the world’s top countries in this field.”

South Korea’s ‘drive-through’ coronavirus testing stations
Collecting this amount of data has also allowed the South Korean authorities to glean a clearer indication of the potential lethality of the virus, the fatality rate of which has diverged significantly from about 5 per cent in Italy to about 0.8 per cent in South Korea. Although factors including quality of health care, patient age and public awareness can affect the fatality rate of a virus, the scale of testing is among the most influential.

By comparison, in neighbouring Japan – which has confirmed more than 600 cases, not including the virus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship – the authorities had as of Friday tested over 10,000 people.

In the United States, where the authorities are unable to confirm the number of tests since they are being carried out by a patchwork of federal, state and private laboratories, the total was estimated to be fewer than 5,000 in a survey of available data by The Atlantic.

William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in the US, said South Korea had pulled off a “spectacular” feat that was allowing health officials to track the virus and assess its intensity.

“We are unsure where our infection is and how intensely it is being transmitted in the US and we are only now starting to test,” he said.

Coronavirus is now classified as a pandemic

13 Mar 2020

South Korea is not unique in claiming some success in its fight against the virus. Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, informed by past outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and Mers, have managed to keep confirmed cases low while eschewing the sort of draconian measures implemented in mainland China.

Early on, Hong Kong took some of the most comprehensive steps to implement “social distancing” – in which events are cancelled and venues closed to minimise contact between people – by shutting schools in late January, while the authorities produced a digital map of confirmed cases to allow people to avoid potentially infected areas.

In Taiwan, officials have pooled information from immigration and health insurance databases to track people’s travel histories and symptoms, and used phone tracking to ensure compliance with quarantine. Singapore has similarly tracked infected patients and traced their contacts, with stiff penalties for those who disobey quarantine or mislead the authorities about where they have travelled.

A worker disinfects a Seoul subway station as a precaution against the new coronavirus. Photo: AP
A worker disinfects a Seoul subway station as a precaution against the new coronavirus. Photo: AP
OPENNESS AND TRANSPARENCY
But where South Korea has stood apart is seemingly turning the tide against a major outbreak while maintaining openness and transparency. The largest cluster of cases in the country is linked to a secretive religious sect, Shincheonji, members of which have been accused of negligently spreading the virus as well as evading medical follow-ups and testing.

In addressing the Covid-19 outbreak, sound decision-making should not be about making a choice between maximised protection or minimal disruption – Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations

“South Korea’s experience suggests that a country can contain the spread of the virus in a relatively short period of time without relying on draconian, at-all-costs containment measures,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

“For countries like the US, the Korean experience offers an acceptable, likely more viable, alternative to addressing the outbreak. In addressing the Covid-19 outbreak, sound decision-making should not be about making a choice between maximised protection and minimal disruption.”

China effectively barred 60 million people in Wuhan – ground zero of the outbreak – and the rest of the province of Hubei from leaving their homes, while restricting the movements of hundreds of millions of others across the country by shutting down public transport, banning private cars and setting up roadblocks.

‘I was stupidly overconfident’: a Korean coronavirus survivor’s tale

15 Mar 2020

The country claims to have effectively halted the spread of the virus after recording more than 80,000 cases and 3,100 deaths, and its daily updates have in recent weeks fallen from thousands of new cases to dozens. However, scepticism lingers over official figures after local and provincial officials in Hubei initially tried to hide the extent of the outbreak.

In a move widely seen to be aimed at touting the success of Beijing’s hardline measures, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday made his first visit to Wuhan, during which he called for businesses and factories to return to work as normal and for the country to refocus on economic growth.

“While China has been able to control Covid-19, I don’t think its draconian methods are worth copying in liberal democracies,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University Law Centre in Washington. “Most democracies value human rights and freedoms … [not] the degree of social control we’ve seen in China. South Korea offers a better model.”

A nearly empty customer call centre in the Gocheok-dong neighbourhood of Seoul as workers isolate or work from home. Photo: EPA
A nearly empty customer call centre in the Gocheok-dong neighbourhood of Seoul as workers isolate or work from home. Photo: EPA
But in a striking indication that Beijing’s harsh tactics could inform even liberal democratic societies, Italy on Monday announced a nationwide quarantine after a massive spike in cases caught the authorities off guard. Shops, restaurants and bars have been closed, while public gatherings and most travel have been banned in the European country, which has confirmed more than 15,000 cases and 1,000 deaths as of Friday – making it the site of the biggest outbreak outside China.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday announced a lockdown of the entire Metro Manila region and its 12.8 million people.
David Hui Shu-cheong, an expert in respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said Italy had responded “very slowly” to the outbreak, in contrast to South Korea.
Southeast Asia at risk of missing coronavirus cases amid dengue outbreak: experts
11 Mar 2020

Even as Beijing touted its success at fighting the virus, with state media recently insisting the “world owes China a ‘thank you’”, South Korea – which democratised in the late 1980s following decades of military dictatorship – has made no secret of its desire to promote a more liberal alternative.

At a press conference with foreign media this week, vice-health minister Kim Gang-lip said that while drastic measures such as locking down affected areas had demonstrated “modest effectiveness”, they suffered from being “coercive and inflexible”.

“Korea, as a democratic country, values globalisation and a pluralistic society,” he said.

“Therefore we believe we must transcend the limitations of the conventional approach to fighting infectious disease.”

Kim stressed that public trust was crucial to the government’s strategy. “The more transparently and quickly accurate information is provided, the more the people will trust the government,” he said. “They will act rationally for the good of the community at large.”

South Korean ministers listen to Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (on screen) during a meeting to discuss measures to deal with the spread of the new coronavirus. Photo: EPA
South Korean ministers listen to Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (on screen) during a meeting to discuss measures to deal with the spread of the new coronavirus. Photo: EPA
UNKNOWN FACTORS
Although the authorities have shut down schools nationwide, South Koreans have largely embraced self-isolation and social distancing of their own accord.
In the past fortnight, more than 12,000 businesses have applied for subsidies to pay the wages of employees while they temporarily close their doors due to the outbreak, according to the country’s labour ministry. Many shops in Daegu, the site of more than three-quarters of the country’s cases, have shut their doors, while shopping malls and cinemas across the country have become largely deserted as people stay at home. Catholic churches and Buddhist temples nationwide have suspended mass and prayer services.
“To an outsider, South Korea has handled an enormous surge in cases very well and seemed to mitigate further spread through forms of … passive social isolation,” said Howard P. Forman, a professor of public health policy at Yale School of Management.
Indonesian firms doing business with China face tough times with coronavirus outbreak
12 Mar 2020

Some experts suggest South Korean society’s emphasis on discipline and community may have given it room to avoid implementing more draconian measures.

“This measure appears to have been very successful but is reliant on the local population working with the response,” said Jeremy Rossman, an honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent. “It is not clear how effective this approach would be in other cultures and it does require effective communication with the local population.”

How a secretive church in South Korea became a coronavirus ‘super spreader’

However, South Korea’s response has not been without missteps or critics.

In mid-February, before it emerged that the virus had spread rapidly among Shincheonji followers, Moon made the ill-fated prediction that the outbreak would “disappear before long”.

The Korean Medical Association – the country’s largest association of doctors – and conservative media have criticised the president for not outright banning travel from China.

Nearly 1.5 million South Koreans have signed an online petition calling for Moon’s impeachment over his handling of the outbreak, and his approval rating this week dropped to just under 45 per cent – although, in a sign of reviving fortunes, an opinion poll released on Friday saw the president’s response rated favourably.

Medical workers attend to a woman who was feeling unwell upon her arrival at the Keimyung University hospital in Daegu. Photo: AFP
Medical workers attend to a woman who was feeling unwell upon her arrival at the Keimyung University hospital in Daegu. Photo: AFP

It is still too early to say whether the response is working – Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology

Some experts caution that it is too early to tell if South Korea truly has the virus under control. The discovery of a new cluster of about 100 infections at a call centre in densely populated Seoul prompted a sudden uptick in cases on Wednesday, raising fears the virus could be on the verge of spreading uncontrollably nationwide.
“It is still too early to say whether the response is working,” said Kim, the president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology. “There is an optical illusion involved in the figures. The daily numbers of new cases appear to be decreasing as the screening of Shincheonji followers is coming to an end, but it must be noted that there are new clusters emerging in Seoul and other areas. We can’t lower vigilance.”
Like elsewhere, the country is facing unknown factors such as warming temperatures in the coming weeks and the arrival of travellers from new and emerging infection hotspots overseas. “We are seeing that in South Korea, large epidemics can be slowed,” said Mackay from the University of Queensland. “Can they be prevented? That will be the challenge for countries who have yet to see widespread community transmission.”

In the face of uncertainty, South Korea appears determined to hold firm to its strategy. During a visit to the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday, Moon said the country’s response had received international recognition and allowed it to avoid the “extreme choice” of sweeping travel bans.

The next day, responding to the World Health Organisation’s decision to declare the virus a global pandemic, the president called on South Koreans to maintain hope that the virus would be overcome.

“It might take more time than we thought,” Moon said. “Everyone, please don’t become fatigued.” 

Source: SCMP

12/03/2020

Coronavirus: Donald Trump’s speech was meant to reassure, but it did just the opposite

  • ‘He is a reality-show expert. This is a real crisis. The happy ending is not guaranteed,’ communications strategist says
  • Televised Oval Office address offered an ineffective remedy in the European travel ban and fell short on other policy recommendations, according to analysts
US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday night. Photo: Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday night. Photo: Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus address from the Oval Office on Wednesday night was meant to project confidence, show leadership in a time of crisis and otherwise reassure an anxious nation and world.

It didn’t work out that way, say health, government policy and crisis management experts, pointing in part to the 1,000-point drop in stock futures even before his 10-minute nationally televised speech was finished.

“You had an uncomfortable president who looked like he didn’t want to be there. He doesn’t want to be the leader that the country, if not free world, wants him to be in a crisis,” said Richard Levick, chief executive of Levick Strategic Communications.

“He is a reality-show expert,” Levick added. “This is a real crisis. The happy ending is not guaranteed. The applause line is not guaranteed. You have to actually lead. He doesn’t like that.”

Trump bans travel from Europe to the US as coronavirus pandemic hits actor Tom Hanks and the NBA
Public health experts say Trump’s announcement that the US was blocking all incoming visitors from Europe for 30 days will prove largely ineffective given that the virus is already firmly rooted in the US and spreading rapidly. And his efforts to reassure the public that testing is widely available, medical experts are fully deployed and face masks widely available was not convincing and a case of too little, too late, they added.

His speech, only his second Oval Office address, followed weeks of denying the gravity of the coronavirus, spreading misinformation, deflecting blame onto Democrats and the media and contradicting highly regarded experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, observers said.

“He has such a bad track record, no one will believe him,” said JB Silvers, professor of health finance at Case Western University in Ohio. “He can’t help but make this a political thing. A Chinese virus? Viruses don’t have nationalities.”

“He could’ve ramped up testing much earlier,” Silvers added. “Instead he told people, ‘Don’t worry, go back to work.’ All the wrong things.”

New York bans gatherings of more than 500 on coronavirus fears

13 Mar 2020

Governments around the world have struggled to cope with the spread of the virus, prepare adequately and take lessons from China and South Korea, which were hit early.

But Trump’s speech also fell short from a policy standpoint, some said. Washington and the markets have been looking for direction, given the logjam and partisanship in Congress. That includes whether the president would support, albeit grudgingly, a Democratic package of economic stimulus measures, oppose specific parts or reject it outright in favour of a still unformed Republican plan.

“No one has a clear sign what he wants, what he will sign,” said Jeffrey Wright, North America analyst with EurAsia Group. “It was a massive failure, one of the least effective presidential prime-time addresses in my memory.”

Companies and markets hate uncertainty and want reassurance, which they’re not getting said Zhaohui Chen, associate professor of commerce at the University of Virginia. “Investors are worried about the policy, that it may cause more harm to the economy,” he said.

Communication and policy experts said there tend to be few obvious answers initially during a crisis, which puts a premium on relatively transparent leaders who can acknowledges what is known and unknown, build trust and work through complexities toward a solution.

“It’s not so much what he did last night, it’s what he did before. Never before has Trump’s habit of making events about himself hurt him until now,” said Eric Dezenhall, chief executive of public relations firm Dezenhall Resources.

“Standing with science officials and talk about how no one has seen such a scientific genius before him, that he should’ve become a doctor, we’re not selling time-shares in the Caymans,” he added.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies to lawmakers about coronavirus preparedness on Thursday. Photo: Getty Images/AFP
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies to lawmakers about coronavirus preparedness on Thursday. Photo: Getty Images/AFP
Leslie Rosenthal, a writer from New Jersey, said the speech failed to reassure her as an ordinary citizen, and seemed to focus on the wrong issues.
“What I wanted to hear from the president was a solution to what’s happening in this country right now,” she said. “While stopping people from coming into the country might do something, it’s about what’s going on here. Where are the test kits? Where are the viral hotspots? I’m placing my trust in Dr. Fauci.”
Trump is a skilled off-the-cuff orator at rallies, where he can energise and be energised by the crowd, communication experts said, and less adept at delivering prepared speeches, as seen on Wednesday night.
“He used a teleprompter, but still made misstatements in ways that rocked the market,” said Levick. Most notable was his statement that his administration was blocking not just people but all cargo from Europe, a statement his office quickly walked back shortly after the speech, he said.
White House orders secrecy for coronavirus meetings
12 Mar 2020

Also questionable was the decision to block travellers from the European continent but not from Britain, even though the UK is a global travel and financial hub.

“You can’t ban people from some countries and not others,” said Ron Waldman, a doctor, professor of global health and infectious disease specialist at George Washington University. “It makes no sense.”

Trump hoped the speech would build confidence in the US economy, its health care system and his leadership. “The virus will not have a chance against us,” he said. “No nation is more prepared.”

But many experts had a different view.

“We’re clearly unprepared,” said Ali Khan, epidemiology professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and a former director at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

“We don’t even need to talk about a pandemic,” he said, adding that even a bad flu outbreak would swamp American hospitals.

Trump vows to ‘take care’ of citizens and economy as coronavirus cases rise in the US

After playing down the economic and health risks from the coronavirus for weeks, the Trump administration kicked into gear on Monday, floating a blizzard of proposals to stimulate the economy. These include expanding loans to small businesses, increasing paid sick leave and extending tax relief for the hospitality industry. The White House and congressional leaders are now trying to hammer out an economic relief bill.

Trump’s turnaround reflects, in part, a growing realisation that the disease is real, can’t be tweeted away, can’t be blamed on political opponents and seriously threatens his re-election prospects.

“He’s definitely worried,” said Silvers. “All those ‘Democratic viruses’ are going to cause him trouble.”

Source: SCMP

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