Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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He is expected to join a trilateral dialogue with his counterparts from Pakistan and Afghanistan, and observers say he may try to mediate in Kashmir dispute
Trip also includes a stop in Nepal that could pave way for a visit by Xi Jinping
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi may try to act as a negotiator in the Kashmir dispute. Photo: EPA-EFE
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi began a four-day trip to Pakistan and Nepal on Saturday, amid escalating tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi over
Wang was expected to join a trilateral dialogue with the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Islamabad, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Friday. He will also travel to Nepal.
Beijing has criticised India’s decision last month to strip the Jammu and Kashmir autonomous state of its special status and break it into two federally controlled territories, calling it “unacceptable”.
China also formally backed Pakistan’s request for the United Nations Security Council to hold “closed consultations” on the revocation of the state’s autonomy.
Meanwhile, observers say the Chinese foreign minister could attempt to act as a negotiator in the complex border dispute.
“Wang might try to play a role to mediate between the two sides to resolve the crisis,” said Wang Dehua, head of the Institute for South and Central Asia Studies at the Shanghai Municipal Centre for International Studies. “This has been China’s long-held position on the issue.”
Pang Zhongying, an international relations researcher at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, agreed.
“[Indian Prime Minister] Narendra Modi has visited China a couple of times and it is likely [Chinese President] Xi Jinping will visit India soon,” he said. “If Xi is to visit India later this year, China may try to contain its differing views with India on Kashmir.”
Modi has proposed an informal summit with Xi later this year that may be held in the religious hub of Varanasi, Modi’s parliamentary constituency. New Delhi said in May that Indian officials were working with the Chinese side to finalise the details, but Beijing has yet to confirm Xi’s visit.
India dismisses Beijing’s concerns over Kashmir because ‘it won’t have any impact on China’
Wang Yi was also due to visit India later this month for border talks, but the trip had to be postponed at the request of New Delhi because of scheduling problems, Hindustan Times reported, citing China’s foreign ministry.
The row over Kashmir has escalated in the past month. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Friday that Islamabad would make the fullest possible response to New Delhi’s actions in disputed Kashmir and that the global community would be responsible for any “catastrophic” aftermath.
Since Modi withdrew special rights for Indian-administered Kashmir on August 5, India has flooded the Kashmir valley with troops, restricted the movements of residents and cut off communication.
Both India and Pakistan claim the whole of Kashmir, which was partitioned between the two following the end of British rule in 1948, and they have subsequently fought wars over the territory.
China has its own territorial dispute with India over the part of Kashmir it controls. In early August, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying
and said it was not binding. Beijing later appeared to soften its rhetoric, with Hua calling for a solution through dialogue and negotiation, without criticising either side.
The Chinese foreign minister will also visit Nepal, where he is expected to meet his counterpart, the president and prime minister. The trip could pave the way for an expected visit by Xi to Nepal.
Chinese government advisers say Beijing has not reached direct intervention point but that could change if the violence continues
Military action would trigger international backlash, observers say, as US expresses concern over reported paramilitary movements and ‘erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy’
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
The unrest in Hong Kong does not yet warrant direct intervention by Beijing despite hardening public sentiment and calls for tougher action in mainland China, according to Chinese government advisers.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council – China’s cabinet – said China would risk damaging its ties with the United States and other major foreign powers, upsetting its own development and losing Hong Kong’s special status if it took the matter directly into its hands.
“I don’t think we need to use troops. Hong Kong police will gradually escalate their action and they haven’t exhausted their means,” Shi said, expressing a view shared by other mainland government advisers and academics.
But he warned that if the violence and chaos continued, it “won’t be too far away from reaching that point”.
A US State Department spokeswoman said the United States was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border and reiterated a US call for all sides to refrain from violence.
She said it was important for the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly” and for Beijing to adhere to its commitments to allow a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.
She said the protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy”.
“The continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said.
brought the city’s air traffic to a halt and triggered a huge backlash on the mainland
, where the public feel they have been wrongly targeted by the increasingly violent protesters. Many demanded the central government take action to end the chaos.
The tension deepened after US President Donald Trump, citing intelligence sources,
to the border with Hong Kong. Trump described the situation in the city as “tricky” and called on all sides to remain “calm and safe”.
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police rolling into Shenzhen began circulating online on Saturday.
Beijing ‘unlikely to intervene’ in Hong Kong as pressure mounts on police
But Shi and others said direct intervention would be too costly to China and would only be used when all other methods had been exhausted.
“As the trade war with the US goes on, Hong Kong’s importance to our financial system is getting bigger,” Shi said. “If Beijing intervenes with too much assertiveness, the US might revoke the preferential status of Hong Kong.”
He was referring to the US’ 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act which gives the city a special status. In June, American lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill requiring the US government to examine Hong Kong’s autonomy annually to decide whether to extend the arrangement.
Losing that status could cripple the operations of many businesses based in Hong Kong, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international affairs expert.
A satellite image appears to show a close-up of Chinese military vehicles at Shenzhen Bay Sports Centre in Shenzhen. Photo: Maxar Technologies
Wang Yong, another specialist on international political economy with Peking University, agreed.
“There would be a lot of opposition from interest groups in the US. Hong Kong is the bridgehead for many multinational corporations and investors from Wall Street to get into the Chinese market,” said Wang, who also teaches at an academy affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Hong Kong and the Chinese government will need to handle this with extra care, so as not to give any ammunition to hawks in the United States.
“If Hong Kong is not handled properly, it could add tensions to the bilateral ties and ruin any prospect of a trade deal.”
China rejects requests for US warships to visit Hong Kong amid protests Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, said direct intervention could also damage China’s ties with other countries.
“The whole world is watching. Beijing has exercised restraint for two months and still hasn’t taken any clear action because this is not an easy choice,” said Pang, who is also a member of the Beijing-based Pangoal Institution, a think tank that advises several ministerial offices.
While some observers said Beijing was under political pressure to end the protests in Hong Kong before October 1 – the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, Shi said the central government would not lose patience so easily.
“National Day [on October 1] is an important time, but the Chinese government is not naive to believe there has to be peace under all heaven then,” he said.
“It’s only a bit more than a month from now, we can almost say for sure the trade war will still be on by then and a major turning point in Hong Kong is not likely to happen. But the celebration must go on.”
Pro-democracy lawmaker James To originally led the session on the controversial extradition bill but earlier this week those supportive of the new law replaced him as chairman.
Tensions boiled over on Saturday, with politicians swearing and jumping over tables amid a crowd of reporters as they fought to control the microphone.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Opponents and supporters of the bill clashed in the legislatureImage copyright REUTERSImage caption Pro-democracy lawmaker Gary Fan was taken out on a stretcher
Pro-democracy legislator Gary Fan collapsed and was carried out on a stretcher, while one pro-Beijing legislator was later seen with his arm in a sling.
Why change the extradition laws?
Under a policy known as “One Country, Two Systems”, Hong Kong has a separate legal system to mainland China.
Beijing regained control over the former British colony in 1997 on the condition it would allow the territory “a high degree of autonomy, except in foreign and defence affairs” for 50 years.
But Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing leader Carrie Lam earlier this year announced plans to change the law so suspects could be extradited to Taiwan, Macau or mainland China on a case-by-case basis.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Some critics say Carrie Lam has “betrayed” Hong Kong over the law change
Ms Lam has cited the case of a 19-year-old Hong Kong man who allegedly murdered his pregnant girlfriend while on holiday in Taiwan before fleeing home.
While Taiwan has sought his extradition, Hong Kong officials say they cannot help as they do not have an extradition agreement with Taiwan.
Even the normally conservative business community has objected. The International Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong said the bill has “gross inadequacies” which could mean people risk “losing freedom, property and even their life”.
And Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, told the government-funded broadcaster RTHK last month the proposal was “an assault on Hong Kong’s values, stability and security”.
“Here begins our tale: The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.” This opening adage of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, China’s classic novel of war and strategy, best captures the essential dynamism of Chinese geopolitics. At its heart is the millennia-long struggle by China’s would-be rulers to unite and govern the all-but-ungovernable geographic mass of China. It is a story of centrifugal forces and of insurmountable divisions rooted in geography and history — but also, and perhaps more fundamentally, of centripetal forces toward eventual unity.
This dynamism is not limited to China. The Scottish referendum and waves of secession movements — from Spain’s Catalonia to Turkey and Iraq’s ethnic Kurds — are working in different directions. More than half a century after World War II triggered a wave of post-colonial nationalism that changed the map of the world, buried nationalism and ethnic identity movements of various forms are challenging the modern idea of the inviolable unity of the nation-state.
Yet even as these sentiments pull on the loose threads of nations, in China, one of the most intractable issues in the struggle for unity — the status of Tibet — is poised for a possible reversal, or at least a major adjustment. The long-running but frequently unnoticed negotiations have raised the possibility that the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader, may be nearing a deal that would enable him to return to his Tibetan homeland. If it happens, it would end the Dalai Lama’s exile in Dharamsala, India — an exile that began after the Tibetan uprising in 1959, nine years after the People’s Republic of China annexed Tibet. More important, a settlement between Beijing and the Dalai Lama could be a major step in lessening the physical and psychological estrangement between the Chinese heartland and the Tibetan Plateau.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 