Archive for ‘Elections’

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13/05/2014

India Poll Prospects Drive Auto Shares – India Real Time – WSJ

Shares of most automobile companies in India surged on Tuesday on expectations that the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party will emerge victorious when national election results are announced Friday.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.532500.BY +1.97%, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.500520.BY +1.40%, Tata Motors Ltd.500570.BY +0.81%, Ashok Leyland Ltd.500477.BY +1.19% and Hero MotoCorp Ltd.500182.BY +3.17% were trading around their 52-week highs when markets closed Tuesday evening.

“This (share-buying) is mainly sentiment-driven,” said an analyst at a Mumbai-based brokerage, who did not wish to be named.  He expected auto shares to trade even higher if a BJP-led government with a clear majority were to emerge the winners of India’s federal election.

The analyst said investors are hoping that a government led by BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi would take strong steps to revive economic growth, increase foreign investment, and boost industrial growth, which would in turn improve market sentiment and demand for new vehicles in India, the world’s sixth-largest car producing market.

via India Poll Prospects Drive Auto Shares – India Real Time – WSJ.

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12/05/2014

BBC News – India election: Narendra Modi faces Arvind Kejriwal on final vote day

The final day of voting has begun in India’s general election, with huge crowds turning up in the sacred city of Varanasi, a key election battleground.

Opposition BJP leader Narendra Modi is being challenged in the seat by anti-corruption campaigner Arvind Kejriwal.

Votes are also being cast in 40 other seats in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal states. The first exit polls are expected on Monday evening.

Mr Modi is ahead in all the opinion polls. Votes will be counted on 16 May.

First stop before the polling station for some voters here was the Ganges river, for a dip in its sacred waters.

There’s been a strong early turnout, with many voting early to beat the rising heat.

The battle in this holy city is now being seen as a straight fight between Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP and Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party.

Mr Modi is still expected to win but many have been inspired by Mr Kejriwal’s anti-establishment message and his party’s determined door-to-door campaign.

After being bombarded by all the parties for weeks, it’s hardly surprising that many voters were being coy in admitting who they were choosing.

But there were some signs of nervousness among BJP workers manning a stand near one polling station. At one they were telling people ‘to vote for anybody, just don’t waste it on the Broom’ – short-hand for Mr Kejriwal

India’s marathon election began on 7 April and has been held in nine phases for security and logistical reasons.

With 814 million eligible voters, it is the world’s biggest exercise in democracy and the governing Congress party is battling the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for power.

Varanasi has been the scene of frenzied political campaigning not seen in the ancient city in decades. The city been turned into a virtual fortress with thousands of police and paramilitaries deployed to ensure peaceful polling.

BBC Hindi’s Nitin Srivastava in the city says large crowds, including many women, are turning up at polling stations, after voting began at 07:00 local time (01:30 GMT).

People are walking or taking cycle rickshaws to the booths as traffic restrictions are in place across the city, our correspondent says.

“Varanasi will finally see some change and development. I am glad to have lived for the day,” Ramavati, 93, said.

One woman told the BBC that she had cast her ballot “for the person who will bring development and progress”.

“The main issues are inflation, corruption and unemployment,” she said.

Mr Modi is being given a spirited fight by Mr Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party, whose army of volunteers is engaged in extensive door-to-door campaigning.

There are a total of 42 candidates in the fray in the seat, including the Congress party’s Ajay Rai, a local political leader.

via BBC News – India election: Narendra Modi faces Arvind Kejriwal on final vote day.

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09/05/2014

India’s Women’s Vote Becomes More Independent – Businessweek

To avoid upsetting her husband, Urmila Devi told him she’ll heed his request to vote for India’s ruling Congress party when their village of 50 families participates in national elections. Once inside the polling booth, she plans to ignore his suggestion. “I’ll vote for a different party,” Devi, 26, says outside her one-room house in Galanodhan Purwa village in Uttar Pradesh state, where she cares for her two children. “I’m concerned about women’s safety. It should be the government’s top priority.”

India's Women's Vote Becomes More Independent

A growing number of women are defying traditional gender roles in India and asserting their voice in elections that began on April 7 and end on May 16. Prompting the change: Higher literacy rates, greater financial independence, and a desire to stem violence against women, which became a highly visible issue after the gang rape and murder of a student in New Delhi in December 2012.

“Over the years, we’ve asked women if they voted on their own or if they voted for whoever their husbands or fathers asked them to,” says Sanjay Kumar, New Delhi-based director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, which conducts opinion polls. “Women were reluctant to tell us earlier, but increasingly they’re saying they’re voting on their own, no matter what the men say.”

via India’s Women’s Vote Becomes More Independent – Businessweek.

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08/05/2014

Four Reasons Why Narendra Modi Makes Some Indians Nervous – Businessweek

The question always comes up in New Delhi these days, somewhere between polite introductions and drinks: What would the reign of Narendra Modi, who seems increasingly likely to be the next prime minister, mean for India?

BJP candidate Narendra Modi addresses an election rally on April 10 at Gopal Maidan in Jamshedpur, India

One man, pro-business and a glass of whiskey in hand at the club, told me recently that Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will bring needed centralization to a government that at times seems unable to impose its writ. Another—a highly educated liberal in socks, slacks, and polo shirt on the sofa just before lunch—wondered aloud whether the nation is forsaking its secular mooring for a dangerous populist.

Prediction in politics, especially in a nation as large and complex as India, is bound to be wrong much of the time. But public remarks by BJP officials and conservative Hindus apparently taking note of political winds are worth considering. (To be sure, there have been sharp words from both sides. For example, video surfaced of a candidate from the ruling Congress Party saying that he would “chop” Modi into tiny pieces.) Beneath the back and forth of explanation and disavowal, the consistency and vehemence of the messaging suggest an approach that, in a nation with a history of sectarian bloodshed, has some worried:

1. A conservative Hindu politician told a crowd that there are ways to discourage Muslims from purchasing property in Hindu neighborhoods. According to one account, Pravin Togadia allegedly met with protestors outside a home owned by a Muslim businessman and gave the occupant 48 hours to vacate the house. Togadia advised his audience to use stones, tires, and tomatoes, according to the Times of India. Togadia disputed that version of events and claimed through an online post that he was only offering advice on using the legal and governmental channels “if they felt that they are being forced into any selling of their houses.” (The newspaper subsequently said it has video confirming the initial report.)

The anecdote takes on broader significance for two reasons: The incident occurred in the western state of Gujarat, where some 1,000 people, mostly Muslim, were killed in brutal riots that included death-by-sword in 2002. The chief minister of Gujarat at the time of that bloodshed, as is still the case, was Narendra Modi. But as ever in Indian politics, there are caveats: A Supreme Court-appointed panel found no evidence that Modi’s decisions prevented the 2002 riot victims from receiving help. While Modi and Togadia have a shared background in Hindu nationalist politics, the two men do not now get along well.

2. A BJP parliament candidate informed a rally that those who do not support Modi will soon have no place in India. With senior BJP leadership standing by, Giriraj Singh said that Pakistan, the Muslim nation to the west, is where such people belong. BJP officials were quick to publicly express displeasure with Singh’s remarks, but he did not back down: “I stand by my statement that those trying their best to stop Modi from coming to power have no place in India and should go to Pakistan.”

3. A senior Modi aide was accused of telling voters they could get revenge by voting for Modi. Amit Shah was speaking in a north India district earlier this month near the site of riots last year that included murder and reports of gang rape. One account described how a “crowd of Hindu men came brandishing guns, swords and machetes, shouting that Muslims should go either to Pakistan or Kabristan (graveyard).”

4. Modi has signaled his desire to distance his campaign from militant sentiment and focus on shared national goals. As he tweeted on Tuesday:

Narendra Modi        ✔ @narendramodi

I disapprove any such irresponsible statement & appeal to those making them to kindly refrain from doing so.

4:58 AM – 22 Apr 2014

Narendra Modi        ✔ @narendramodi

Petty statements by those claiming to be BJP’s well wishers are deviating the campaign from the issues of development & good governance.

4:57 AM – 22 Apr 2014

However, many still point to his remarks during an interview with Reuters last year about the 2002 riots:

“Another thing, any person if we are driving a car, we are a driver, and someone else is driving a car and we’re sitting behind, even then if a puppy comes under the wheel, will it be painful or not? Of course it is. If I’m a chief minister or not, I’m a human being. If something bad happens anywhere, it is natural to be sad.”

There was an expression of sadness in those words. And there was, too, the unavoidable fact that he’d compared the dead to dogs.

via Four Reasons Why Narendra Modi Makes Some Indians Nervous – Businessweek.

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08/05/2014

The Reluctant Prince of India’s Political Dynasty and His Anticampaign – Businessweek

Whither the House of Gandhi?

Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi at the district collector's office on April 12 in Amethi, India

The Nehru-Gandhi family has dominated Indian politics since the nation’s independence in 1947, but it now faces a walloping at the polls, possibly its worst ever. While voting in national elections won’t be finished until next month, every indication is the Congress Party—for which a Gandhi presides as president and vice president—will lose the prime minister’s seat and watch its share of parliament thin considerably.

The face of that probable political calamity is Rahul Gandhi, a 43-year-old, good-looking Cambridge man who speaks of the need for a more inclusive political process. And as I’ve heard more than one liberal, middle-class Indian acknowledge with regret in their voices, he’s not much of a public politician.

via The Reluctant Prince of India’s Political Dynasty and His Anticampaign – Businessweek.

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01/05/2014

They say every vote counts, but mine wasn’t | India Insight

Fifty-four percent of Bangalore‘s eligible voters showed up at the polls on April 17, a disappointing number considering the high turnout in some states. I was not among them, but it was not for lack of trying. Despite doing everything correctly, my application never went through.

I was 18 the last time India held national elections. Since then, we moved around a lot. I was looking forward to voting this year for the first time. A record number of people are registered to vote in this election, and the country is at a crossroads as it considers whether to kick out the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty and its Congress party in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party and prime ministerial hopeful Narendra Modi, or perhaps a third front of other parties.

I was eager to include my voice in the nation’s decision. I filled out the forms and gave copies to volunteers in the Reuters Bangalore newsroom who submitted the applications to the Election Commission. Voters’ names are supposed to appear on the electoral rolls six weeks after submission. The deadline for applications to reach the Election Commission was March 16. Voting day in the state of Karnataka where I live was April 17. I checked my application status online on April 15 and saw that it was still “under process”.

I called the Electoral Registration Officer that day to ask why I wasn’t registered yet. An officer there told me to call my ward office to confirm that it went through because it might not necessarily reflect online. I asked an official at my local area ward office what was happening. He said that if the Election Commission hadn’t processed my application yet, it was probably too late for me to vote. When I asked why this happened, he said that it could be because Election Commission officials either lost my application or didn’t have time to process it. At that point, another worker there said that I should go home and wait for the voting slips that the commission distributes 48 hours before polling. If I didn’t get it, then it was too bad for me.

I do not know how many people encountered the same problem, but I know that I am not the only one in Bangalore. Meanwhile, in other cities, including Pune and Mumbai, people found that their names were missing.

Yashas Mitta, a Bangalore-based executive at design firm Creativeland Asia, saw that his name was not on the list. His mother’s name was, but someone had voted in her place. “When I asked the officials, they told me that they had received the list of people who had registered before January. Anybody who registered after that didn’t find their names on the list. And this is funny because the registration was open until March.”

Ankit Baphna, a 33-year-old IT consultant in Bangalore, also did not find his name on the list. His local ward office wasn’t helpful. The Bangalore Bruhat Mahanagara Palike, or Bangalore municipal corporation, told him, “you can vote in next elections,” Baphna wrote in a Facebook post.

Amulya Nagaraj, a former Reuters reporter who lives in southern Bangalore, found her name struck from the list. “When I asked the reason, they said that these kinds of things happen, that sometimes names are removed from the list,” she said.

via They say every vote counts, but mine wasn’t | India Insight.

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21/04/2014

On the Fence: Will Indians Actually Vote Against Corruption, or Not? – India Real Time – WSJ

A report in today’s Wall Street Journal probes an important contradiction in the Indian electorate: People say they are fed up with corruption — but will they say it at the ballot box?

Political corruption is a defining issue in the national vote, which runs all month. The only issue that tops it is economic growth, according to a survey sponsored by the Lok Foundation. Indians rank political parties as the most corrupt institutions in the country, Transparency International says.

The Journal traveled to Karnataka to look at the parliamentary race in Shimoga, where B.S. Yeddyurappa — a seasoned politician who faces corruption allegations — is representing the Bharatiya Janata Party. Mr. Yeddyurappa, who is considered a front-runner in the race, denies the allegations.

From interviews with voters in and around Shimoga, two things are clear: Pretty much everyone knows about the allegations against Mr. Yeddyurappa. And pretty much everyone thinks all politicians are corrupt. As a result, many people said they will simply vote for the person who they feel will help him or her the most.

“Corruption needs to be eradicated,” said Manjula H.N., a young woman who lives in a village about a half-hour drive into the countryside.  But, she said, she is more worried about unemployment.

Bottom line: She was leaning toward voting for the BJP. “Yeddyurappa has done more good works” for locals than the other candidates, she said.

via On the Fence: Will Indians Actually Vote Against Corruption, or Not? – India Real Time – WSJ.

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07/04/2014

Two Visions for India’s Economy, Sort Of – India Real Time – WSJ

India’s national election, which kicked off Monday, is a contest of old-fashioned socialism versus market liberalism, of handouts to the poor versus pro-growth reforms that will benefit all. Right?

Sort of. At least judging by the two main contenders’ official platforms.

The Bharatiya Janata Party — out of power for a decade — looks set to win big this year, helped by its popular prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who promises to reboot India’s economy with a combination of smart policy and able administration.

But now that the BJP has at last released its election manifesto after multiple delays, it’s easier to see where exactly its economic policy ideas differ from the incumbent Congress party’s – and, perhaps more interestingly, where they don’t.

Both parties promise to revitalize India’s manufacturing sector, long a laggard amid the country’s economic rise. Both say they will implement a national goods and services tax, known elsewhere as a value-added tax. Both want to create a “single-window system” to expedite land, environmental, power and other approvals for investors. Both back the current system of food subsidies, though the BJP highlights that the program should be efficient and corruption-free.

And both parties want to build high-speed rail, stem inflation, modernize infrastructure, make housing affordable, create jobs, expand cities and make taxation more predictable. (Though the BJP wins style points for referring to retroactive taxes as “tax terrorism.”) The BJP even matches the splashiest item in Congress’s manifesto — a commitment to providing “universal and quality health care for all Indians” — with its own call for universal health care.

All of that said, the manifestos alone do give the BJP an edge in terms of structural reforms that many economists, businesses and investors have long craved from India’s government.

The party’s manifesto speaks of addressing “over-regulation” in business and “bottlenecks” in the delivery of public services. Its section on developing agriculture focuses more on investing in productivity-enhancing technology than on increasing government subsidies, which the Congress manifesto notes as a major achievement of its decade in office.

The BJP says it will “rationalize and simplify the tax regime,” which the party calls “currently repulsive for honest taxpayers.” The Congress manifesto merely reiterates its support for the Direct Tax Code, an earlier legislative effort to eliminate tax distortions and improve compliance that has stalled in Parliament’s lower house.

The BJP also says it will review India’s creaking labor laws, which it decries as “outdated, complicated and even contradictory.” The Congress manifesto, meanwhile, “recognizes the need for creating flexibilities in the labor market” while redoubling its commitment to “protecting the interests of labor through more progressive labor laws.” The World Bank said in a report last year that India’s “cumbersome and complex” labor policies “have unambiguously negative effects on economic efficiency.”

via Two Visions for India’s Economy, Sort Of – India Real Time – WSJ.

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07/04/2014

Facts and figures for India’s 2014 general election | India Insight

Voting in the 2014 election begins on April 7. More than 814 million people — a number larger than the population of Europe — will be eligible to vote in the world’s biggest democratic exercise.

Voting will be held in nine stages, which will be staggered until May 12, and results are due to be announced on May 16. Elections to state assemblies in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim will be held simultaneously.

Around 930,000 polling stations will be set up for the month-long election using electronic voting machines, first introduced in 2004.

Uttar Pradesh has the most eligible voters (134 million); Sikkim the lowest (about 362,000). Male voters constitute 52.4 percent of the electorate but women voters outnumber men in eight regions — Puducherry, Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram, Daman & Diu, Meghalaya, Goa and Arunachal Pradesh.

About 23 million eligible voters have been enrolled in the 18 to 19 age group, nearly 3 percent of India’s voters.

Of India’s 814.5 million eligible voters, 28,314 identify themselves as transgender and their gender is listed as “other”. There are 11,844 non-resident Indians registered to vote in the election this year.

Since introducing photo voter ID cards and electoral rolls in 2009, 98 percent of India’s eligible voters have the former, 96 percent have the latter.

Electronic voting machine security includes: transported under armed escort and stored in strong rooms, with a double lock system and guarded 24×7 by armed police, and CCTV coverage. Also, parties/candidates allowed to keep a watch on them.

Nearly 10 million officials (including police for security) will be deployed.

Uttar Pradesh has the most Lok Sabha seats (80) while the states of Nagaland, Sikkim, Mizoram and the union territories have one seat each.

A candidate can spend up to 7 million rupees ($116,350) for his election campaign in Delhi and all states except Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Sikkim. For these states and other union territories, the limit is 5.4 million rupees ($90,000).

A candidate for the Lok Sabha makes a deposit of 25,000 rupees ($415) at the time of filing the nomination. If the candidate fails to get a sixth of the total valid votes polled, this amount is forfeited. Nearly 85 percent of the candidates lost their security deposit in the 2009 election.

In the 15th Lok Sabha, around 78 percent of the members have a graduate, post-graduate degree or a doctorate.

Malkajgiri in Andhra Pradesh is the biggest Indian constituency in terms of voters with around 2.95 million electors; Lakshadweep is the smallest with 47,972 voters. In Lower Dibang Valley district of Arunachal Pradesh, Hukani polling station has 22 registered voters. Officials travel 22 km on foot to get there.

In the 2009 election, 363 political parties took part. The Bahujan Samaj Party contested the maximum number of seats (500 out of 543), followed by the Congress (440) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (433).

The last general election had a voter turnout of over 58 percent. Nagaland (89.99 percent) had the highest turnout while Jammu & Kashmir (39.68 percent) saw the lowest.

Namo Narain of the Congress party beat his BJP rival by 317 votes in Rajasthan’s Tonk Sawai Madhopur constituency — the smallest margin of victory in the 2009 election.

“Basic Minimum Facilities” for polling stations include drinking water, shed, toilet, ramp for disabled voters.

Voters will have a “None of the Above” option on voting machines.

The indelible election ink that is applied while electors cast their votes is manufactured by Mysore Paints & Varnish Limited, a Karnataka government undertaking.

Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party has emerged as the favourite in opinion polls, which reflect waning support for Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party that wrested power from the BJP in 2004.

Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, will also be challenged by a clutch of regional parties that are vying for power as part of a “third front” opposed to both the Congress and the BJP.

Also in the race is Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, which made a stunning debut in Delhi elections last year and is now eyeing a national presence on the anti-corruption plank.

via Facts and figures for India’s 2014 general election | India Insight.

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05/03/2014

BBC News – India names general election dates

India’s general election will take place in nine phases in April and May, the Election Commission has announced.

A BJP rally in Assam, India

Polling to elect a new Lok Sabha, or lower house, will be held from 7 April to 12 May. Votes will be counted on 16 May.

With some 814 million eligible voters, India’s election will be the largest the world has seen.

The ruling Congress party and the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party will be battling a host of smaller parties.

Leaders of 11 regional parties have formed a Third Front against the Congress and the BJP.

A new anti-corruption Aam Aadmi (Common Man’s) Party (AAP), which made a spectacular debut in recent polls in the capital Delhi, will also contest the elections.

Continue reading the main story

POLLING DAYS

7 April – 2 states, 6 constituencies

9 April – 5 states, 7 constituencies

10 April – 14 states, 92 constituencies

12 April – 3 states, 5 constituencies

17 April – 13 states, 142 constituencies

24 April – 12 states, 117 constituencies

30 April – 9 states, 89 constituencies

7 May – 7 states, 64 constituencies

12 May – 3 states, 41 constituencies

Counting of votes – 16 May

Election Commission of India

If no single party wins a clear majority, smaller parties could play a crucial role.

India’s lower house has 543 elected seats and any party or a coalition needs a minimum of 272 MPs to form a government.

via BBC News – India names general election dates.

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