Archive for ‘Politics’

10/12/2012

* On the brink of gunboat diplomacy

It is truly ironic that China, the nation who suffered from ‘gunboat diplomacy 170 years ago, is apparently adopting the same measures against its smaller and weaker neighbours. If, as a result, we see a resurgence of Japanese militarism, China will only have itself to blame. What is worrying is that amongst leader Xi’s recent pronouncements since becoming head of the Party is the recurrent term ‘nationalism’.  This can mean something innocent such as resuming China’s global pre-eminence which it had until 200 years ago or something more sinister. Let’s hope it is the former.

Inquirer Opinion (Philippines): “The past four weeks saw the swiftest escalation in recent years of tensions over the territorial disputes between China and its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific.

China Gunboat Diplomacy

The tensions spiraled in late November when the province of Hainan, in the southern coastal region of China, issued an imperial-sounding  edict that its so-called lawmaking body had authorized its police patrol boats to board and search foreign ships of any nationality that illegally enter what it considers Chinese territories in the South China Sea. The plan was announced to take effect on short notice: on Jan. 1.

The edict caused considerable alarm among China’s smaller neighbors, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, all of whom have overlapping claims on islands in portions of the South China Sea, which China has claimed as exclusively belonging to it on the strength of ancient maps. It also caused consternation among other world powers such as the United States and India, which do not have territorial claims in the South China Sea, which is the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and through  which more than half of the globe’s oil tanker traffic passes. The concern of the United States and India, both of which have powerful navies to challenge China’s aggressive assertion of its hegemonic ambitions, involves freedom of navigation and trade routes in the entire China Sea.

The new rules emanating from Hainan will allow its local police—not China’s navy—to seize control of foreign ships that “illegally enter” Chinese waters and order them to change course. The determination of what is illegal is left entirely in the hands of the Hainan authorities. What has affronted the rest of the world is this arbitrary exercise by China to enforce its territorial claims while intimidating its weaker neighbors with threats of its expanding naval power.

The rules shocked China’s neighbors so powerfully because these were issued, not by a democratic political system, but by a provincial government, and was addressed to rival claimants of disputed territories in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea, most of which are democracies. These rival claimants are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

The Hainan decision empowering its border police to intercept foreign ships sailing in waters claimed by China as its territory, which also overlaps territories in the South China Sea, affronts other claimants because it is seen as condescending and treating them as vassal states of the suzerain province.

There are now questions raised over whether the new rules were handed down at the instigation of the central Chinese government in Beijing or were initiated by the Hainan provincial government. Whatever is the source of the initiative, the new rules have galvanized countries affected by it to call for a clarification. The rules have accelerated the spiraling of tensions close to a flashpoint, of armed confrontation between Chinese gunboats and those of smaller countries whose ships are being intercepted even in waters claimed by them.

Under the new rules, Hainanese patrols are to prowl the seas far beyond the “baseline” of China’s 12-nautical-mile zone, which is allowed archipelagic countries. The Philippines has joined other nations in a coalition calling for clarification. A report in the Wall Street Journal said experts were unclear how the rules would be applied in practice. According to the report, Wu Sichun, the director of the foreign affairs office of Hainan province, who is also president of the National Institute for South China Sea, gave a narrow interpretation of the regulations.

He said the main purpose was to deal with Vietnamese fishing boats operating in waters near Yonxing Islands in the Paracels, which China calls the Xisha Island.

Wu said the regulations applied to waters around islands which announced “baselines.” He said the baseline is the low-water line along the coast from which countries measure their territorial waters, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).

Wu also said the rules allowed police to check and expel vessels that will enter, or conduct illegal activity  within, the 12 nautical miles of the islands for which China has announced baselines. It is not clear how this rules apply. The problem is that the Chinese are handing down their set of rules, interpreting these at their own convenience, and enforcing these with their own police patrols.

With their unilateral interventions, they have decreed a new law of the sea without the consent of the users of the sea. What worries us is: What happens when the boats they intercept are our gunboats patrolling our own national territory also claimed by China? That can be an act of war. We are on the brink of gunboat diplomacy.

via On the brink of gunboat diplomacy | Inquirer Opinion.

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09/12/2012

* India’s UP saw over 100 communal clashes in 2012

Despite the notion of unity in diversity, India continues to suffer from communal / ethnic clashes over 60 years after independence.

The Hindu: “Uttar Pradesh has earned the dubious distinction of witnessing over 100 communal clashes this year that left 34 people dead.

File photo of the family of 55-year-old Mohammed Umar, who was beaten to death in Mukeempur Pahadpur village near Faizabad on October 25, 2012 as violence erupted during Durga Puja celebrations.

The towns where incidents of such violence took place are Kosi Kalan in Mathura, Faizabad, Pratapgarh, Sitapur, Ghaziabad and Bareilly.

More than 450 people were also injured in these clashes which took place from January till October 31, Home Ministry officials said.

There were 84 incidents of communal clashes in the state in 2011 in which 12 people lost their lives.

The country witnessed 560 incidents of violence this year till October end, which claimed 89 lives, while in 2011, 580 clashes took place that left 91 people dead.

Uttar Pradesh was followed by Maharashtra where 83 incidents were reported so far this year in which 13 people were killed and 88 incidents in 2011 which claimed 15 lives.

Madhya Pradesh saw 78 incidents of communal violence so far this year in which 11 people were killed and in 2011, 81 incidents of communal clashes were reported that left 15 dead.

In Karnataka, there were 54 incidents of communal clashes in 2012 and 70 incidents in 2011 in which three and four people lost their lives respectively.

Rajasthan had witnessed 42 incidents of communal clashes in 2011 leading to death of 16 people while this year the state has witnessed 30 incidents of such violence and six dead.

There were 47 incidents of communal clashes in Gujarat in 2011, in which three persons lost their lives, and 50 incidents so far this year in which five were killed.

Andhra Pradesh saw 33 communal clashes in 2011 in which one died and so far this year, 45 clashes took place in which two were killed.

There were 30 incidents of communal clashes in Kerala in 2011, in which one died, and 46 incidents in this year in which one was killed.

Bihar witnessed 26 incidents with four deaths last year and 17 incidents this year in which three persons were killed.

Tamil Nadu saw 21 incidents of communal violence and two deaths in 2011 and 11 incidents with two deaths this year so far.

There were 15 incidents in West Bengal in 2011 in which three persons were killed, and 22 incidents in this year, in which eight persons were killed.”

via The Hindu : News / National : UP saw over 100 communal clashes in 2012.

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07/12/2012

* PLA signs preliminary deal for 24 Russian Su-35 jet fighters

Rare admission that China’s technology may not be up to it.

South China Morning Post: “A preliminary deal for the sale of 24 advanced Russian Su-35 jet fighters to the People’s Liberation Army indicates the technological hurdles China faces in developing its own J-20, especially in terms of engine technology, military analysts say.

scmp_01dec10_fr_plane3_13_11_08_66_sm_19070747.jpg

Mainland and Russian media reported last month that Beijing might purchase 24 Su-35s, an updated version of the fourth generation Su-27, for US$1.5 billion. The deal was first proposed by Moscow two years ago.

Beijing expressed interest in purchasing only four Su-35s last year, but that was rejected by Moscow, which had originally expected China to buy 48 planes, Moscow’s Vedomosti business daily quoted an official from Russia’s Federal Service for Military and Technical Co-operation as saying.

It also quoted Igor Korotchenko, head of the Russian Defence Ministry’s public council, as saying Moscow also asked Beijing to sign an agreement not to make copies of the Su-35.

A Beijing-based PLA senior colonel, who requested anonymity, said: “We decided to buy the Su-35 because it’s a fact that our home-made engines have failed to measure up to the Russian products.”

He said China was still playing catch-up, despite recent headlines hailing its progress on military modernisation.

“Engines have been the biggest headache and we are still trying to cope with it,” he said. “The purchase of the Su-35s might help our J-20 project, but there are too many deeper problems hiding in our military industrial system that are hindering our research and development.””

via PLA signs preliminary deal for 24 Russian Su-35 jet fighters | South China Morning Post.

07/12/2012

* India Dips a Toe into the South China Sea Dispute

Thoughtful commentary about why India, who has no territorial claims in he area, is getting involved with the South China Sea disputes.

Geopolitical Monitor: “Although the Xi Jinping administration is now secure enough in its transition to power to put nationalist jingoism back in the box from whence it came, recent events suggest that China will continue to tow a hard line in regards to its military and economic rights in the South China Sea.Joint exercises between the Indian Navy and the US Navy

Earlier this week, Chinese media sources reported that police authorities in Hainan province will be authorized to search and seize foreign vessels operating in Chinese waters starting next year. The announcement prompted an immediate response from the Philippine government, which condemned the move and requested a clarification as to what exactly can be considered ‘Chinese territorial waters.’ ASEAN also chimed in over the announcement, with Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan calling it a move that “raises the level of concern and great anxiety [in the dispute].”

Judging by Chinese official statements on the subject, it seems likely that this expansion of search and seizure powers applies to China’s entire territorial claim, which is essentially most of the South China Sea, extending as far south as Brunei. It can be seen as an initial attempt to leverage China’s growing naval power to buttress an ambitious territorial claim that has, up until now, remained largely rhetorical.

If Beijing goes through with the plan, it will ramp up the volatility in an already precarious region. Whenever hard military assets are being deployed and coming into close contact with one another, the risk of a crisis breaking out is substantially heightened. It wouldn’t take much for a relatively small and seemingly insignificant event, much like the standoff between China and the Philippines earlier this year, to spin out of control and set off a regional conflict.

And make no mistake: there will be no shortage of military ships operating in the South China Sea. On the very same day that China announced its intention for expanded search and seizures, the government of Vietnam announced that it was going to begin military patrols of its own territorial claim. This announcement comes on the heels of an incident earlier this week in which a group of Chinese boats cut the cables of a PetroVietnam survey vessel operating off the Gulf of Tonkin.

But by far one of the most interesting recent developments in the South China Sea dispute is the entrance of India into the fray. Earlier this week, Indian Admiral D.K Joshi publically asserted that India will not back off from protecting its maritime and economic interests in the South China Sea.

Although India doesn’t have any direct territorial claim in the area, the waters are strategically important to New Delhi for three reasons. First, like for any trade-dependent country, the South China Sea represents an important global shipping route and freedom of navigation must be maintained. Second, India’s state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) owns a stake in waters claimed by Vietnam. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the South China Sea represents an opportunity for an Indian riposte against China’s ‘string of pearls’ naval encirclement of the Indian subcontinent.”

via India Dips a Toe into the South China Sea Dispute – Geopolitical Monitor.

06/12/2012

* Senior provincial official under investigation

Will this be the first of many such investigations?

Senior provincial official under investigation

China Daily: “Li Chuncheng, deputy secretary of the Sichuan Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is under investigation for alleged discipline violation, according to the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.

via Senior provincial official under investigation |Politics |chinadaily.com.cn

04/12/2012

Changes first to style soon (we hope) to be followed by substance.

04/12/2012

To any thinking person, regardless of nationality, the Chinese unilateral claimed territorial waters (as shown by the red dotted line) look unreasonable. Furthermore, China has, up-till-now, maintained that force should come only after negotiations have failed. Compounding that, for a country who occasionally reminds the rest of the world about unequal treaties and ‘gunboat diplomacy‘, to threaten to board other nationality ships in what is disputed waters is not learning from its own history. This new ‘sabre rattling‘ is a great shame. given the high hopes everyone has for the new national leadership. Let’s hope this is a short term aberration that will soon be corrected.

03/12/2012

* Post transition, China looking to build ties with neighbours

Talking of mixed messages: on the one hand we hev the Indian Navy trying to establish a position in South China Sea to protect its oil and gas interests there; on the other hand we have foreign ministers shaking hands and vowing better ties between neighbours. Which is the REAL message? And who is trying to fool whom?

The Hindu: “Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo told National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon here on Monday that China was looking to forge stronger ties with its neighbours following the leadership transition.

National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon with Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, his counterpart as the Special Representative on the boundary talks, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on Monday. Photo: Ananth Krishnan

Mr. Dai, who is also Mr. Menon’s counterpart as the Special Representative (SR) on the boundary talks, said Monday’s visit had assumed “special and important” significance as it was one of the first visits by a foreign leader to China following November’s Party Congress, which formalised a once-in-a-decade leadership transition.

“You’re one of the first few foreign leaders we are receiving after the party congress,” Mr. Dai told Mr. Menon at their first session of talks. “I’m sure through your visit the Indian side will have a better sense of China after the eighteenth Party Congress and China’s foreign policy, and how best to join forces to further promote the development of China-India relations”.

The first session of Monday’s talks was devoted to briefing Mr. Menon on China’s transition. Two other sessions later on Monday will focus on Sino-Indian relations and are expected to cover a range of topics from the boundary question to wider strategic issues.”

via The Hindu : News / National : Post transition, China looking to build ties with neighbours.

03/12/2012

* Indian navy prepared to deploy to South China Sea to protect oil interests

India, which so far has not been involved is now doing so after Hainan Province decides to take unilateral ‘policing’ action on the high seas. Does not bode well for resolving the South China Sea territorial dispute.

Reuters: “The Indian navy is prepared to deploy vessels to the South China Sea to protect India’s oil interests there, the navy chief said on Monday amid growing international fears over the potential for naval clashes in the disputed region.

Indian Navy

India has sparred diplomatically with China in the past over its gas and oil exploration block off the coast of Vietnam. China claims virtually the entire mineral-rich South China Sea and has stepped up its military presence there. Other nations such as Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia have competing claims.

Indian state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has a stake in a gas field in the Nam Con Son basin, off Vietnam’s south coast.

Indian Navy Chief Admiral D.K Joshi said while India was not a claimant in the dispute over territorial rights in the South China Sea, it was prepared to act, if necessary, to protect its maritime and economic interests in the region.”

via Indian navy prepared to deploy to South China Sea to protect oil interests | Reuters.

03/12/2012

* Alarm as China Issues Rules for Disputed Area

Amazingly, a Chinese province makes announcements that could have grave foreign-policy and geo-political implications. Is this for real or is it merely acting as a ‘strawman’ for central government pronouncements to come?

NY Times: “New rules announced by a Chinese province last week to allow interceptions of ships in the South China Sea are raising concerns in the region, and in Washington, that simmering disputes with Southeast Asian countries over the waters will escalate.

The move by Hainan Province, which administers China’s South China Sea claims, is being seen by some outside analysts as another step in the country’s bid to solidify its claims to much of the sea, which includes crucial international shipping lanes through which more than a third of global trade is carried.

As foreign governments scrambled for clarification of the rules, which appeared vague and open to interpretation, a top Chinese policy maker on matters related to the South China Sea tried to calm worries inspired by the announcement.

Wu Shicun, the director general of the foreign affairs office of Hainan Province, said Saturday that Chinese ships would be allowed to search and repel foreign ships only if they were engaged in illegal activities (though these were not defined) and only if the ships were within the 12-nautical-mile zone surrounding islands that China claims.

The laws, passed by the provincial legislature, come less than a month after China named its new leader, Xi Jinping, and as the country remains embroiled in a serious dispute with Japan in the East China Sea over islands known in China as the Diaoyu and as the Senkaku in Japan.

The laws appear to have little to do with Mr. Xi directly, but they reinforce fears that China, now the owner of an aircraft carrier and a growing navy, is plowing ahead with plans to enforce its claims that it has sovereign rights over much of the sea, which includes dozens of islands that other countries say are theirs. And top Chinese officials have not yet clarified their intent, leaving room for speculation.

via Alarm as China Issues Rules for Disputed Area – NYTimes.com.

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