Archive for ‘Territorial dispute’

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10/12/2012

* As China’s clout grows, sea policy proves unfathomable

This analogy is most interesting. One wonders if it is a sign of “the mess China’s foreign policy is” or something much cleverer: like letting Hainan Province appear to be the instigator. If all goes well, central government ratifies the policy and instead of provincial police boats, Chinese naval vessel enter the fray.  But if the uproar continues and grows in both volume and participation well beyond the South China Sea, central government disavows itself and ‘reprimand’s Hainan Province for over stepping its mandate. We will see within the next few weeks which it will be. But I’m not taking any bets!

Reuters: “Imagine if the U.S. state of Hawaii passed a law allowing harbor police to board and seize foreign boats operating up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Honolulu.

A Chinese marine surveillance ship is seen offshore of Vietnam's central Phu Yen province May 26, 2011 and released by Petrovietnam in this May 29, 2011 file handout photo. REUTERS-Handout-Files

That, in effect, is what happened in China about a week ago. The tropical province of Hainan, home to beachfront resorts and one of China’s largest naval bases, authorized a unit of the police to interdict foreign vessels operating “illegally” in the island’s waters, which, according to China, include much of the heavily disputed South China Sea.

At a time when the global community is looking to the world’s second-biggest economy and a burgeoning superpower for increasing maturity and leadership on the international stage, China’s opaque and disjointed foreign policy process is causing confusion and escalating tensions throughout its backyard.

Vietnam and the Philippines, which claim sovereignty over swathes of the South China Sea along with Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan, have issued verbal protests against the Hainan rules.

India, which jointly conducts some oil exploration with Vietnam in the South China Sea, said last week it was prepared to send navy ships to the region to safeguard its interests. And the United States has publicly asked Beijing for clarification as to what, if anything, the new rules mean — thus far to no avail.

“It is really unclear, I think, to most nations (what the regulations mean),” U.S. Ambassador to Beijing Gary Locke told Reuters last week. “Until we really understand what these things are, there is no way to comment. First we need clarification of the extent, the purpose and the reach of these regulations.”

The fact that a provincial government can unilaterally worsen one of China’s most sensitive diplomatic problems highlights the dysfunctionality, and potential danger, of policymaking in this arena, analysts say.

“It shows what a mess Chinese foreign policy is when it comes to the South China Sea,” said a Western diplomat in China, speaking on condition of anonymity.

According to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) earlier this year, no fewer than 11 government entities — from the tourism administration to the navy — play a role in the South China Sea. All, the ICG said, have the potential to take action that could cause diplomatic fallout.

via Analysis: As China’s clout grows, sea policy proves unfathomable | Reuters.

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10/12/2012

* On the brink of gunboat diplomacy

It is truly ironic that China, the nation who suffered from ‘gunboat diplomacy 170 years ago, is apparently adopting the same measures against its smaller and weaker neighbours. If, as a result, we see a resurgence of Japanese militarism, China will only have itself to blame. What is worrying is that amongst leader Xi’s recent pronouncements since becoming head of the Party is the recurrent term ‘nationalism’.  This can mean something innocent such as resuming China’s global pre-eminence which it had until 200 years ago or something more sinister. Let’s hope it is the former.

Inquirer Opinion (Philippines): “The past four weeks saw the swiftest escalation in recent years of tensions over the territorial disputes between China and its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific.

China Gunboat Diplomacy

The tensions spiraled in late November when the province of Hainan, in the southern coastal region of China, issued an imperial-sounding  edict that its so-called lawmaking body had authorized its police patrol boats to board and search foreign ships of any nationality that illegally enter what it considers Chinese territories in the South China Sea. The plan was announced to take effect on short notice: on Jan. 1.

The edict caused considerable alarm among China’s smaller neighbors, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, all of whom have overlapping claims on islands in portions of the South China Sea, which China has claimed as exclusively belonging to it on the strength of ancient maps. It also caused consternation among other world powers such as the United States and India, which do not have territorial claims in the South China Sea, which is the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and through  which more than half of the globe’s oil tanker traffic passes. The concern of the United States and India, both of which have powerful navies to challenge China’s aggressive assertion of its hegemonic ambitions, involves freedom of navigation and trade routes in the entire China Sea.

The new rules emanating from Hainan will allow its local police—not China’s navy—to seize control of foreign ships that “illegally enter” Chinese waters and order them to change course. The determination of what is illegal is left entirely in the hands of the Hainan authorities. What has affronted the rest of the world is this arbitrary exercise by China to enforce its territorial claims while intimidating its weaker neighbors with threats of its expanding naval power.

The rules shocked China’s neighbors so powerfully because these were issued, not by a democratic political system, but by a provincial government, and was addressed to rival claimants of disputed territories in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea, most of which are democracies. These rival claimants are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

The Hainan decision empowering its border police to intercept foreign ships sailing in waters claimed by China as its territory, which also overlaps territories in the South China Sea, affronts other claimants because it is seen as condescending and treating them as vassal states of the suzerain province.

There are now questions raised over whether the new rules were handed down at the instigation of the central Chinese government in Beijing or were initiated by the Hainan provincial government. Whatever is the source of the initiative, the new rules have galvanized countries affected by it to call for a clarification. The rules have accelerated the spiraling of tensions close to a flashpoint, of armed confrontation between Chinese gunboats and those of smaller countries whose ships are being intercepted even in waters claimed by them.

Under the new rules, Hainanese patrols are to prowl the seas far beyond the “baseline” of China’s 12-nautical-mile zone, which is allowed archipelagic countries. The Philippines has joined other nations in a coalition calling for clarification. A report in the Wall Street Journal said experts were unclear how the rules would be applied in practice. According to the report, Wu Sichun, the director of the foreign affairs office of Hainan province, who is also president of the National Institute for South China Sea, gave a narrow interpretation of the regulations.

He said the main purpose was to deal with Vietnamese fishing boats operating in waters near Yonxing Islands in the Paracels, which China calls the Xisha Island.

Wu said the regulations applied to waters around islands which announced “baselines.” He said the baseline is the low-water line along the coast from which countries measure their territorial waters, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).

Wu also said the rules allowed police to check and expel vessels that will enter, or conduct illegal activity  within, the 12 nautical miles of the islands for which China has announced baselines. It is not clear how this rules apply. The problem is that the Chinese are handing down their set of rules, interpreting these at their own convenience, and enforcing these with their own police patrols.

With their unilateral interventions, they have decreed a new law of the sea without the consent of the users of the sea. What worries us is: What happens when the boats they intercept are our gunboats patrolling our own national territory also claimed by China? That can be an act of war. We are on the brink of gunboat diplomacy.

via On the brink of gunboat diplomacy | Inquirer Opinion.

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07/12/2012

* India Dips a Toe into the South China Sea Dispute

Thoughtful commentary about why India, who has no territorial claims in he area, is getting involved with the South China Sea disputes.

Geopolitical Monitor: “Although the Xi Jinping administration is now secure enough in its transition to power to put nationalist jingoism back in the box from whence it came, recent events suggest that China will continue to tow a hard line in regards to its military and economic rights in the South China Sea.Joint exercises between the Indian Navy and the US Navy

Earlier this week, Chinese media sources reported that police authorities in Hainan province will be authorized to search and seize foreign vessels operating in Chinese waters starting next year. The announcement prompted an immediate response from the Philippine government, which condemned the move and requested a clarification as to what exactly can be considered ‘Chinese territorial waters.’ ASEAN also chimed in over the announcement, with Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan calling it a move that “raises the level of concern and great anxiety [in the dispute].”

Judging by Chinese official statements on the subject, it seems likely that this expansion of search and seizure powers applies to China’s entire territorial claim, which is essentially most of the South China Sea, extending as far south as Brunei. It can be seen as an initial attempt to leverage China’s growing naval power to buttress an ambitious territorial claim that has, up until now, remained largely rhetorical.

If Beijing goes through with the plan, it will ramp up the volatility in an already precarious region. Whenever hard military assets are being deployed and coming into close contact with one another, the risk of a crisis breaking out is substantially heightened. It wouldn’t take much for a relatively small and seemingly insignificant event, much like the standoff between China and the Philippines earlier this year, to spin out of control and set off a regional conflict.

And make no mistake: there will be no shortage of military ships operating in the South China Sea. On the very same day that China announced its intention for expanded search and seizures, the government of Vietnam announced that it was going to begin military patrols of its own territorial claim. This announcement comes on the heels of an incident earlier this week in which a group of Chinese boats cut the cables of a PetroVietnam survey vessel operating off the Gulf of Tonkin.

But by far one of the most interesting recent developments in the South China Sea dispute is the entrance of India into the fray. Earlier this week, Indian Admiral D.K Joshi publically asserted that India will not back off from protecting its maritime and economic interests in the South China Sea.

Although India doesn’t have any direct territorial claim in the area, the waters are strategically important to New Delhi for three reasons. First, like for any trade-dependent country, the South China Sea represents an important global shipping route and freedom of navigation must be maintained. Second, India’s state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) owns a stake in waters claimed by Vietnam. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the South China Sea represents an opportunity for an Indian riposte against China’s ‘string of pearls’ naval encirclement of the Indian subcontinent.”

via India Dips a Toe into the South China Sea Dispute – Geopolitical Monitor.

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04/12/2012

To any thinking person, regardless of nationality, the Chinese unilateral claimed territorial waters (as shown by the red dotted line) look unreasonable. Furthermore, China has, up-till-now, maintained that force should come only after negotiations have failed. Compounding that, for a country who occasionally reminds the rest of the world about unequal treaties and ‘gunboat diplomacy‘, to threaten to board other nationality ships in what is disputed waters is not learning from its own history. This new ‘sabre rattling‘ is a great shame. given the high hopes everyone has for the new national leadership. Let’s hope this is a short term aberration that will soon be corrected.

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03/12/2012

* Post transition, China looking to build ties with neighbours

Talking of mixed messages: on the one hand we hev the Indian Navy trying to establish a position in South China Sea to protect its oil and gas interests there; on the other hand we have foreign ministers shaking hands and vowing better ties between neighbours. Which is the REAL message? And who is trying to fool whom?

The Hindu: “Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo told National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon here on Monday that China was looking to forge stronger ties with its neighbours following the leadership transition.

National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon with Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, his counterpart as the Special Representative on the boundary talks, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on Monday. Photo: Ananth Krishnan

Mr. Dai, who is also Mr. Menon’s counterpart as the Special Representative (SR) on the boundary talks, said Monday’s visit had assumed “special and important” significance as it was one of the first visits by a foreign leader to China following November’s Party Congress, which formalised a once-in-a-decade leadership transition.

“You’re one of the first few foreign leaders we are receiving after the party congress,” Mr. Dai told Mr. Menon at their first session of talks. “I’m sure through your visit the Indian side will have a better sense of China after the eighteenth Party Congress and China’s foreign policy, and how best to join forces to further promote the development of China-India relations”.

The first session of Monday’s talks was devoted to briefing Mr. Menon on China’s transition. Two other sessions later on Monday will focus on Sino-Indian relations and are expected to cover a range of topics from the boundary question to wider strategic issues.”

via The Hindu : News / National : Post transition, China looking to build ties with neighbours.

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03/12/2012

* Alarm as China Issues Rules for Disputed Area

Amazingly, a Chinese province makes announcements that could have grave foreign-policy and geo-political implications. Is this for real or is it merely acting as a ‘strawman’ for central government pronouncements to come?

NY Times: “New rules announced by a Chinese province last week to allow interceptions of ships in the South China Sea are raising concerns in the region, and in Washington, that simmering disputes with Southeast Asian countries over the waters will escalate.

The move by Hainan Province, which administers China’s South China Sea claims, is being seen by some outside analysts as another step in the country’s bid to solidify its claims to much of the sea, which includes crucial international shipping lanes through which more than a third of global trade is carried.

As foreign governments scrambled for clarification of the rules, which appeared vague and open to interpretation, a top Chinese policy maker on matters related to the South China Sea tried to calm worries inspired by the announcement.

Wu Shicun, the director general of the foreign affairs office of Hainan Province, said Saturday that Chinese ships would be allowed to search and repel foreign ships only if they were engaged in illegal activities (though these were not defined) and only if the ships were within the 12-nautical-mile zone surrounding islands that China claims.

The laws, passed by the provincial legislature, come less than a month after China named its new leader, Xi Jinping, and as the country remains embroiled in a serious dispute with Japan in the East China Sea over islands known in China as the Diaoyu and as the Senkaku in Japan.

The laws appear to have little to do with Mr. Xi directly, but they reinforce fears that China, now the owner of an aircraft carrier and a growing navy, is plowing ahead with plans to enforce its claims that it has sovereign rights over much of the sea, which includes dozens of islands that other countries say are theirs. And top Chinese officials have not yet clarified their intent, leaving room for speculation.

via Alarm as China Issues Rules for Disputed Area – NYTimes.com.

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01/12/2012

* World through Dragon’s eyes

A very insightful analysis reported by a Turkish author, presumably someone who attended the 4th Xiangshan Forum in November 2012, immediately after the 18th National Congress.

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24/11/2012

* The end of the “ASEAN way”

Extracted from Al Jazeera Blogs: “The long-time journalists in this region have joked that it didn’t really matter if they missed out on covering ASEAN summits as nothing ever really happened at them anyway.: ”

The ten-member regional organisation composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, The Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam was seen as a bit of a toothless mouse … ineffective, irrelevant, and a trifle useless.

All pomp and ceremony at the best of times – with very little substance. It’s been termed a “loose grouping” with nothing legally binding it together.

The one pronouncement from ASEAN with any kind of general recall was its members’ agreement of “non-interference” in each other’s affairs – which meant that for the most part, there were no condemnations of, or sanctions against, or even reactions to alleged human rights violations amongst them from anyone in the group.

It was the “ASEAN way” to be non-confrontational, put on a united front… and pretty much sweep things under the carpet. Which is likely why most thought the group a “lame” body.

Everything hinged on members’ consensus… and for many years, the only underlying consensus appeared to be making sure everyone played nice, and kept the house clean and presentable at all times. There was to be no “rocking the boat”, as it were.

But if one thing is clear after this series of recently concluded summits in Phnom Penh (ASEAN + Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, and the US) it’s that ASEAN is changing.

…

But it’s precisely because Cambodia, a nation with deep ties to China, tried to “stifle” that issue that things didn’t quite go as it had planned.

The Philippines, one of the countries embroiled in an increasingly tense dispute with China over overlapping maritime claims, spoke out in public contradiction of Cambodia’s statement that ASEAN members had “agreed” to not “internationalise” the territorial disputes.

“There was no consensus,” Philippine President Benigno Aquino said after the Cambodian leader finished his declaration. And that was only the beginning.

Possibly emboldened by the presence of Obama, (and the seven other non-ASEAN leaders), Aquino took the opportunity to basically “internationalise” the matter by speaking about the need for a “multi-lateral” resolution.

One that involves all those with a stake in the disputed areas’ maintaining its freedom of navigation and over-flight, including the US. A position several other countries agreed with.

And just like that, the subject that wasn’t supposed to be discussed hijacked the discussions. Much of this happened behind closed doors, but there was no way it was going to remain there… whether ASEAN liked it or not.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen delivered his usual stage-managed, loquacious statement in an attempt to conclude the summits on a “positive” and “graceful” note… but he refused to answer questions (of which there were many!) ostensibly because he was tired and feeling “emotional” about the passing of Cambodia’s former king last month.

But never mind Hun Sen’s neat summary. The media rush, (referred to by one journalist as similar to a dangerous bar-room brawl), to get to the Chinese and Philippine delegates as they exited and looked to make side-line statements taking pot-shots at each other (without directly pointing fingers of course), said more about the region’s state of affairs than can be tidied up and swept under the carpet.

This time around, ASEAN may have found itself with little other choice than to do something more substantial.

via The end of the “ASEAN way” – Al Jazeera Blogs.

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24/11/2012

* India and China row over new map in passport

This provocative action is most curious as China seemed to have moderated its attitude to territorial disputes at the recent ASEAN summit. Wonder if it is national policy or the over-enthusiastic actions of a newly-appointed Foreign Ministry after the 10-year leadership change?

BBC: “A fresh row has broken out between India and China over territorial claims in the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin area in eastern Kashmir.

A woman holds the new Chinese passport on 23 November 2012

In new passports, China’s maps show the two areas as Chinese territory.

The Indian embassy in Beijing is said to have retaliated by stamping Chinese visas with a map of their own which shows the territories in India.

Several of China’s neighbours have also protested against the new map.

Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan have all objected because it shows disputed islands in the South China Sea and Taiwan to be a part of China.

They have described the new design as a violation of their sovereignty.

Chinese official maps have long shown Taiwan and the South China Sea to be part of its own territory, but the inclusion of such claims on the passport has caused considerable anger.

The potentially oil-rich Paracel Islands, claimed by Vietnam since their troops were forced to leave by China in the 1970s and also claimed by Taiwan, make an appearance on the map, as do the Spratly Islands, part of which are claimed by the Philippines.

The disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, at the centre of recent tension between China and Japan are not included in the new document.

Relations between India and China have been uneasy – the two countries dispute several Himalayan border areas and fought a brief war in 1962.

Delhi is yet to officially take up the row over the map with Beijing.”

via BBC News – India and China row over new map in passport.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2012/11/22/5365/

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22/11/2012

* China might be moving to ASEAN agreement on S China Seas= dispute

If China does agree to ASEAN multi-lateral agreement on South China Sea dispute, it will probably be the first time. It much prefers to do bilateral deals; conforming tot the old principle of ‘divide and conquer’.

See also:

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