20/04/2020
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
Source: Reuters
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10/04/2020
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory gate prices fell the most in five months in March, with deflation deepening and set to worsen in coming months as the economic damage wrought by the coronavirus outbreak at home and worldwide shuts down many countries.
The world’s second-largest economy is trying to restart its engines after weeks of near paralysis to contain the pandemic that had severely restricted business activity, flow of goods and the daily life of people.
Friday’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics suggested a durable recovery was some way off, with China’s producer price index (PPI) falling 1.5% from a year earlier, the biggest decline since October last year. It compared with a median forecast of a 1.1% fall tipped by a Reuters poll of analysts and a 0.4% drop in February.
Headline consumer inflation also eased somewhat last month, partly led by government control measures, while core prices remained benign, leaving more room for monetary easing, some analysts said.
The overall decline in the factory gate gauge was exacerbated by a slump in global oil and commodities prices, which filtered through to crude oil, steel and non-ferrous metal industries, the statistics bureau said in a statement accompanying the data.
“The issue of having more supply than demand, and persistently low oil prices, will intensify deflationary pressures,” said Yang Yewei, a Beijing-based analyst with Southwest Securities.
“Work resumptions on the production side are faster than the repair in demand. Downstream demand is recovering slowly and still remains weak,” he said.
The oil and gas extraction sector had the biggest year-on-year price fall of 21.7%, among the 40 major industrial sectors surveyed, deteriorating sharply from a 0.4% drop in the previous month.
The stringent travel and transport curbs have now been lifted across much of the country including Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak where the virus first emerged in late 2019. So far the virus has killed more than 3,300 and infected over 81,000 people in the country.
Analysts expect a deep first-quarter economic contraction in China and have grown increasingly pessimistic about the country’s prospects for 2020 due to the pandemic’s sweeping global impact.
Many economists and policymakers are forecasting a steep global recession this year as numerous countries are forced into lockdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus, severely curtailing business activity in a major blow to jobs and incomes.
Worldwide, the virus has killed around 95,000 people and infected more than 1.5 million. Policymakers globally have responded to the crisis by launching an unprecedented package of stimulus measures, injecting trillions of dollars to backstop their economies that have been brought to a virtual standstill.
Beijing has also rolled out a series of fiscal and monetary support steps, and sources have told Reuters that policymakers are readying more stimulus in the coming months to stabilise growth and prevent mass unemployment.
China’s consumer prices rose 4.3% from a year earlier in March, compared with a 4.8% gain tipped by a Reuters poll and a 5.2% increase in February, as logistics and transport conditions improved and government price control measures kicked in.
But food prices still rose over 18% from a year earlier, led by a 116.4% jump in pork prices, the data showed. The virus outbreak has pushed up prices of some food items, such as pork and vegetables.
Core inflation – which excludes food and energy prices – remained benign last month at 1.2%，but it still edged up from 1% in February.
Source: Reuters
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09/09/2019
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s Guangdong province said it will release 3,150 tonnes of frozen pork from reserves during the upcoming holidays, part of a campaign to secure supplies of the country’s favorite meat, local media reported on Monday, after a devastating disease ravaged the hog herd.
The pig herd in the major pork consuming region has fallen 34% from the previous year in the first half of 2019, while the sow herd dropped 43%, the Nanfang Daily reported, citing government statistics.
“Hog supplies will face an unprecedented, grave test,” the newspaper said, quoting an unnamed official with the provincial agriculture bureau, as it will be increasingly difficult to transport pigs into Guangdong from outside provinces due to falling production nationwide.
Various factors, including the environmental crackdown on illegal pig farming and outbreaks of African swine fever, are behind the fall, the official said.
Guangdong relies on supplies from other provinces. Authorities in Guangzhou, the capital city of the province, have said they will release 1,600 tonnes of frozen pork from reserves in September.
Major pig producers in the region including the Guangdong branch of agribusiness giant New Hope Liuhe, said they will further expand hog production in the area to help with supplies.
Liuhe, which currently supplies about 300,000 hogs a year in Guangdong, will add another 50,000 pigs to the market in the second half of the year, and expand pig production by 700,000 heads next year, according to Li Weifeng, general manager in charge of the Guangdong new district at the firm, the newspaper reported.
Local authorities are also promoting modern and large scale pig farms, to secure pork supplies in the region in the long run, the paper said.
China’s state planner said on Monday it will issue subsidies of up to 5 million yuan ($700,000) to support the construction of large-scale pig farms.
Source: Reuters
Posted in African swine fever, devastating disease, environmental crackdown, favorite meat, Guangzhou, hog herd, illegal pig farming, Nanfang Daily, New Hope Liuhe, outbreaks, pig herd, Pork, ravaged, release, reserves, secure supplies, Uncategorized |
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02/03/2019
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said he had asked China to immediately remove all tariffs on U.S. agricultural products because trade talks were progressing well.
He also delayed plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday, as previously scheduled.
“I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions,” Trump said on Twitter, pointing out that he had not raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent on March 1 as planned.
“This is very important for our great farmers – and me!” Trump said.
Farmers are a key constituency for Trump’s Republican Party, and the U.S. president’s trade war with China has had a heavy impact on them. Beijing imposed tariffs last year on imports of soybeans, grain sorghum, pork and other items, slashing shipments of American farm products to China.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said this week that U.S. trade negotiators had asked China to reduce tariffs on U.S. ethanol, but it was not immediately clear whether Beijing was willing to oblige.
Trump’s post on Twitter came several hours after the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said that it would delay the scheduled hike in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The notice, due to be published in the Federal Register next Tuesday, says it is “no longer appropriate” to raise the rates because of progress in negotiations since December 2018. The tariff would remain “at 10 percent until further notice.”
In a statement on Saturday, China said it welcomed the delay.
Speaking at a separate briefing in Beijing, a Chinese government official said both countries were working on the next steps, though he gave no details.
“China and the United States reaching a mutually-beneficial, win-win agreement as soon as possible is not only good for the two countries, but is also good news for the world economy,” said Guo Weimin, spokesman for the high profile but largely ceremonial advisory body to China’s parliament.
A tariff increase to 25 percent from 10 percent was initially scheduled for Jan. 1, but after productive conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Trump administration issued a 90-day extension of that deadline.
Trump had said on Sunday he would again delay the increase because of progress in the talks.
Source: Reuters
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