Archive for ‘prediction’

04/05/2020

Coronavirus: billionaire Warren Buffett’s prediction for America after Berkshire Hathaway’s US$50 billion loss

  • Buffett’s Berkshire posted a record quarterly net loss of nearly US$50 billion
  • Company sells entire stakes in US airlines, Buffett says ‘world has changed’
Warren Buffett speaks during the virtual Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting. Photo: Bloomberg
Warren Buffett speaks during the virtual Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting. Photo: Bloomberg

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Saturday he’s confident the US economy will bounce back from its pummelling by the coronavirus pandemic because “American magic has always prevailed”.

The 89-year-old made the sanguine prediction about the world’s largest economy as his holding company Berkshire Hathaway reported first-quarter net losses of nearly US$50 billion.

Buffett also announced Saturday that his company had sold all its stakes in four major US airlines last month, as the pandemic clobbered the travel industry.

“It turns out I was wrong,” he said of his acquisitions of 10 per cent stakes in American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines.

Berkshire Hathaway had paid US$7 billion to US$8 billion, and “we did not take out anything like that,” he said.

Between the purchases that took place over months, and the sale, “the airlines business I think changed in a very major way” and could no longer meet Berkshire criteria for profitability, he said.

Buffett’s announcement may further hurt airlines already pushed to the brink by coronavirus lockdown measures, now looking to the US government for US$25 billion in relief funds.

Berkshire Hathaway, based in Omaha, Nebraska, called its first-quarter setback “temporary” but said it could not reliably predict when its many businesses would return to normal or when consumers would resume their former buying habits.

Warren Buffett (left) and vice-chairman Charlie Munger at the annual Berkshire shareholder shopping day in Omaha, Nebraska in 2019. Photo: Reuters
Warren Buffett (left) and vice-chairman Charlie Munger at the annual Berkshire shareholder shopping day in Omaha, Nebraska in 2019. Photo: Reuters
“We’ve faced great problems in the past, haven’t faced this exact problem – in fact we haven’t really faced anything that quite resembles this problem,” Buffett said in a lengthy speech on the country’s economic history.

“But we faced tougher problems, and the American miracles, American magic has always prevailed and it will do so again.”

“We are now a better country, as well as an incredibly more wealthy country, than we were in 1789 … We got a long ways to go but we moved in the right direction,” he said, referencing the abolition of slavery and women’s suffrage.

Warren Buffett has traded his old flip phone for Apple’s iPhone

25 Feb 2020

“Never bet against America.”

Buffett is considered one of the savviest investors anywhere. His fortune of US$72 billion is the fourth-largest in the world, according to Forbes, and in normal years, the company’s annual gathering in Omaha is a high-point of the calendar for investors, a “Woodstock for capitalists”.

But the devastating economic impact of the pandemic has hit hard at Berkshire Hathaway’s wide range of investments, and the need for social distancing forced it to hold the annual meeting online.

Buffett addressed his shareholders in a live-stream flanked only by Gregory Abel, who is in charge of Berkshire’s non-insurance operations.

His business partner for six decades, 96-year-old Charlie Munger, did not appear.

China’s first-quarter GDP shrinks for the first time since 1976 as coronavirus cripples economy
Buffett, in a statement, played down his company’s bleak-looking net figure. He said a better measure of the company’s performance was its operating earnings, which exclude investments and are less subject to sharp fluctuations.
By that measure, Berkshire Hathaway saw growth to US$5.9 billion from US$5.55 billion a year earlier.
The brutal drop in the net – to a loss of US$49.75 billion from a profit last year of US$21.7 billion – resulted primarily from the virus-related decline in value of its broad investment portfolio, which ranges from energy to transport to insurance and technology.
Chinese cryptocurrency billionaire finally sits down to eat with Warren Buffett
7 Feb 2020

The annual meeting often has an almost carnival atmosphere, as thousands of fans and investors flock to Nebraska to hear from the celebrated “Oracle of Omaha”. Buffett, famous for his relatively modest lifestyle, turns 90 on August 30.

In documents filed Saturday, Berkshire noted that until mid-March many of its companies were posting “comparative revenue and earnings increases” over the same 2019 period.

Many of its companies – including in rail transport, energy production and some manufacturing and service businesses – are deemed essential and are able to continue working amid the far-reaching confinement orders.

But their turnover slowed considerably in April, the company statement said.

Moves taken by those companies such as employee furloughs, salary cuts and reductions, and capital spending reductions are “necessary actions” and “temporary,” it said.

Source: SCMP

12/02/2020

Coronavirus cases fall, experts disagree whether peak is near

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China reported on Wednesday its smallest number of coronavirus cases since January, lending weight to a prediction by its top medical adviser for the outbreak to end by April, but a global infectious diseases expert warned of the spread elsewhere.

Financial markets took heart from the outlook of the Chinese official, epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who said on Tuesday the number of new cases was falling in some provinces, and forecast the epidemic would peak this month, even as the death toll in China rose to more than 1,100 people.

World stocks, which had seen rounds of sell-offs over the virus, surged to record highs on hopes of a peak in cases. The Dow industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit new highs, and Asian shares nudged higher on Wednesday.

But the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the epidemic poses a global threat akin to terrorism and one expert coordinating its response said while the outbreak may be peaking at its epicentre in China, it was likely to spread elsewhere in the world, where it had just begun.

“It has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of the outbreak,” the official, Dale Fisher, head of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the WHO, said in an interview in Singapore.

“In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.”

Singapore has reported 47 cases and worry about the spread is growing. Its biggest bank, DBS (DBSM.SI), evacuated 300 staff from its head office on Wednesday after a confirmed coronavirus case in the building.

Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of other countries and territories around the world, but only two people have died outside mainland China – one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday the world had to “wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one” and the first vaccine was 18 months away.

In China, total infections have hit 44,653, health officials said, including 2,015 new confirmed cases on Tuesday. That was the lowest daily rise in new cases since Jan. 30.

The number of deaths on the mainland rose by 97 to 1,113 by the end of Tuesday.

But doubts have been aired on social media about how reliable the figures are, after the government last week amended guidelines on the classification of cases.

‘STAY HOPEFUL’

The biggest cluster of cases outside China is aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s port of Yokohama, with about 3,700 people on board. Japanese officials on Wednesday said 39 more people had tested positive for the virus, taking the total to 175.

One of the new cases was a quarantine officer.

Thailand said it was barring passengers from another cruise ship, MS Westerdam, from disembarking, the latest country to turn it away amid fears of the coronavirus, despite no confirmed infections on board.

“We try to stay hopeful,” American passenger Angela Jones told Reuters in a video recording. “But each day, that becomes a little bit more difficult, when country after country rejects us.”

Echoing the comparison with the fight against terrorism, China’s state news agency Xinhua said late on Tuesday the epidemic was a “battle that has no gunpowder smoke but must be won”.

The epidemic was a big test of China’s governance and capabilities and some officials were still “dropping the ball” in places where it was most severe, it said, adding: “This is a wake-up call.”

The government of Hubei, the central province at the outbreak’s epicentre, dismissed the provincial health commission’s Communist Party boss, state media said on Tuesday, amid mounting public anger over the crisis.

China’s censors had allowed criticism of local officials but have begun cracking down on reporting of the outbreak, issuing reprimands to tech firms that gave free rein to online speech, Chinese journalists said.

The pathogen has been named COVID-19 – CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease and 19 for the year it emerged. It is suspected to have come from a market that illegally traded wildlife in Hubei’s capital of Wuhan in December.

The city of 11 million people remains under virtual lockdown as part of China’s unprecedented measures to seal infected regions and limit transmission routes.

Travel restrictions that have paralysed the world’s second-biggest economy have left Wuhan and other Chinese cities resembling ghost towns.

Even if the epidemic ends soon, it has taken a toll of China’s economy, with companies laying off workers and needing loans running into billions of dollars to stay afloat. Supply chains for makers of items from cars to smartphones have broken down.

ANZ Bank said China’s first-quarter growth would probably slow to 3.2% to 4.0%, down from a projection of 5.0%.

The likely slowdown in China could shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off both euro zone and British growth this year, credit rating agency S&P Global estimated.

Source: Reuters

Law of Unintended Consequences

continuously updated blog about China & India

ChiaHou's Book Reviews

continuously updated blog about China & India

What's wrong with the world; and its economy

continuously updated blog about China & India