Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto tells Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, that his country ‘always upholds the one China principle’
Wang also speaks to foreign ministers of Estonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead of World Health Assembly, which starts on Monday
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to three European foreign ministers on Thursday. Photo: AP
Hungary supports Beijing’s efforts to prevent Taiwan taking part in the upcoming World Health Assembly (WHA), according to a Chinese statement issued after a telephone conversation between the two countries’ foreign ministers.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called his European counterpart, Peter Szijjarto, on Thursday, the foreign ministry in Beijing said.
During the call, Szijjarto told Wang that Budapest would not support Taiwan’s accession to the World Health Organisation (WHO) ahead of the annual gathering of health ministers from around the world that starts in Geneva on Monday and which Taipei is keen to attend.
Hungary “always upholds the one China principle”, Szijjarto was quoted as saying.
A report about the ministers’ call by the Hungarian foreign ministry, however, made no mention of Taiwan.
It said that Szijjarto thanked Wang for the medical supplies China had sent to Hungary board 121 flights since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The pair also discussed cooperation on 5G and the development of a rail project between Budapest and the Serbian capital, Belgrade, it said.
Beijing opposes Taiwan’s involvement in the WHO. Photo: EPA-EFE
As well as speaking to Szijjarto, Wang called the foreign ministers of Estonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina on Thursday to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic, but Taiwan was not mentioned, the Chinese statement said.
Taipei donated 80,000 face masks to Estonia in April, and last week, Urmas Paet, an Estonian member of the European parliament urged Budapest to support Taiwan’s membership of the WHO and “not allow itself to be manipulated by China”.
Taiwan has long campaigned to regain observer status at the WHO and has ramped up those efforts since the start of the global health crisis. Despite the devastation caused by Covid-19, Taiwan has reported just 440 confirmed cases and seven deaths.
Taiwan attended the WHA meetings as an observer between 2009 and 2016, unopposed by Beijing as at the time the island was led by president Ma Ying-jiu from the mainland-friendly Kuomintang.
However, relations between Taipei and Beijing have soured since 2016 and the election of President Tsai Ing-wen, from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, who won a second term of office in January.
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13 May 2020
Taiwan has not been alone in its campaign to regain its WHO status, with the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and several European countries backing the move.
Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on all nations to support Taipei’s participation as an observer at the WHA, and urged WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to allow it.
Despite the support, Taiwan’s Vice-Premier Chen Chien-jen said on Thursday that because of the pressure from Beijing there was now little chance of Taiwan attending the WHA.
China’s foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said last week it was “resolutely opposed” to New Zealand’s support for Taiwan.
In his calls to Europe, Wang also said that cooperation between Beijing and 17 central and eastern European nations – under the “17+1” banner – would not be affected by the health crisis and that further talks would be held once it had been brought under control.
Defence spending could show the effect of economic headwinds but is still expected to increase
PLA’s modernisation and strategic priorities demand spending is maintained even after GDP’s first contraction since records began, observers say
China has made modernising its military and expanding its weaponry a priority. Photo: Xinhua
China’s upcoming defence budget will be only slightly hit by the economic downturn that followed the coronavirus outbreak, and a modest increase is still expected as it continues to develop its military capability, analysts said.
The government’s military budget is expected to be revealed, as is the norm, at this year’s session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislative body. Delayed by over two months because of the pandemic, it will finally be convened on May 22.
Last year the defence expenditure announced at the NPC session was
China has said its military expenditure has always been kept below 2 per cent of its GDP over the past 30 years, although its official figures have long been described by Western observers as opaque, with significant omissions of important items.
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In a report earlier this week, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China’s actual military spending in 2019 was US$261 billion, the world’s second highest, after the United States’ US$732 billion.
John Lee, adjunct professor at the University of Sydney and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, estimated that this year the Chinese defence budget would remain roughly the same or increase modestly, in line with growth levels of recent years.
“In the current environment, Beijing is keen to emphasise that China has recovered substantially from Covid-19 and that its power trajectory is unaffected by recent events,” Lee said. “At the same time, it would be aware of the anger towards the Communist Party for allowing the virus to become a pandemic.
“Regardless of what the reality might be, I would be surprised if there were a dramatic increase or a significant cut.”
First made-in-China aircraft carrier, the Shandong, enters service
China’s GDP suffered a 6.8 per cent decline in the first quarter, the first contraction since quarterly records began in 1992, after an extensive shutdown while it contained its coronavirus outbreak. However, the official increases in the military budget have since 2011 always exceeded overall GDP growth.
The Chinese government may focus more on job creation, social welfare and poverty alleviation, but not at the expense of military investment, according to Collin Koh, research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“I tend to think it will be more or less the same,” Koh said. “To reduce [the budget] may send the wrong signal to would-be adversaries, both domestic and external: that Beijing has lost the will to keep up its military modernisation to assert core national interests.”
PLA flexes military muscle near Taiwan ‘in show of Covid-19 control’
15 Apr 2020
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began a massive – and costly – reform in 2015, with a personnel reshuffle, change in structure, upgraded equipment and enhanced training to better resemble battle scenarios. That was supposed to be complete this year.
Given the deteriorating relationship with the United States and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, the PLA faces challenges requiring a steady increase in investment, according to Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping.
Taiwan shows off its military power after presidential election
Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong predicted there would still be about 6-7 per cent growth in the budget “no matter what”.
“The PLA played an important role in the fight against the contagion, so a decrease in spending would not be accepted,” Wong said.
That role included the deployment of more than 4,000 military medics to help treat Covid-19 patients, and helping to transport medical supplies.
Wong said it would be a crucial year for the PLA in completing its preparation for potential military action against Taiwan, which would be so strategically important that “[President] Xi Jinping himself would never allow it to be affected by a shortage of funding”.
China’s military draws on 6G dream to modernise its fighting forces
18 Apr 2020
But a slight increase in budget would be sufficient to meet defence needs and maintain a deterrence against potential threats, including preventing self-ruled Taiwan taking the opportunity to declare independence, naval expert Li Jie said.
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Its relationship with Taipei has been strained, and dialogue halted, since Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected the island’s president in 2016. Tsai was re-elected for a second term in January.
Li estimated that the budget would probably be kept at the same level or show a “slight” increase from last year.
“It would feed the ‘China threat’ theory and raise international concerns if the Chinese government expands military spending too much,” he said.
Hardline politicians want president to fulfil promise to overhaul constitution to reflect the self-ruled island’s political reality
A petition calls for two referendums on the issue – proposing it either be replaced with a new one or revised
The push for constitutional change could lead to a cross-strait conflict. Photo: Handout
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is under growing pressure from the hardline camp to push for constitutional change to reflect the self-ruled island’s independent status – something observers say could provoke a cross-strait conflict.
With Tsai due to be sworn in for a second four-year term next month after a landslide victory in January’s election, hardline pro-independence politicians want her to fulfil a 2015 campaign promise: to overhaul the constitution so that it reflects Taiwan’s political reality. The process has been stalled since Tsai’s first term, which began in 2016.
Leading the charge is the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, a group formed last year by a Tsai adviser and long-time independence advocate Koo Kwang-ming.
The foundation launched a petition at the end of March calling for two referendums on the constitution – proposing that it either be replaced with a new one or revised.
The existing constitution was adopted when Kuomintang leader Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT fled to Taiwan and set up an interim government in 1949 following their defeat by Mao Zedong’s communists in mainland China.
Drawn up in 1947, the constitution still puts the mainland and Mongolia under the Republic of China jurisdiction – Taiwan’s official name for itself. In reality, its jurisdiction extends only to Taiwan and its outlying islands of Penghu, Matsu and Quemoy, which is also known as Kinmen.
Taiwan’s constitution was adopted when KMT leader Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island in 1949. Photo: Handout
“We have garnered more than 3,000 signatures from the public for the first phase of initiating the proposals to hold two referendums asking the president to push for constitutional change,” Lin Yi-cheng, executive director of the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, said on Wednesday.
He said they would propose that voters be asked two questions in the referendums: “Do you support the president in initiating a constitutional reform process for the country?”
And: “Do you support the president in pushing for the establishment of a new constitution reflecting the reality of Taiwan?”
“We’re ready to send the two referendum proposals to the Central Election Commission on Thursday,” he said.
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14 Apr 2020
Under Taiwan’s Referendum Act, the process for holding a referendum involves three stages: a proposal, endorsement and voting.
Lin said there should be no problem for the commission to approve the proposal stage since they had gathered far more than the minimum 1,931 signatures needed under the act.
The endorsement stage requires a minimum of 290,000 signatures, and if the referendum is held, they will need at least 5 million votes.
Lin said if the process went smoothly, he expected a referendum could be held in August next year, allowing time for review and making the necessary arrangements.
He said if the referendum questions got enough public support, Tsai would need to deal with the issue.
Tsai Ing-wen visits a military base in Tainan earlier this month. The pressure for constitutional change creates a dilemma for the president. Photo: AFP
Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party government has been tight-lipped over the constitutional change issue, which Beijing sees as a move for the island to declare formal independence from the mainland.
Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province that must be returned to the mainland fold, by force if necessary, and it has warned Tsai against declaring formal independence.
A DPP official said the foundation’s push would put Tsai in a difficult position.
“If she ignores the referendums, she will come under constant pressure from the hardline camp, and if she seriously considers taking action and instituting a new Taiwan constitution, she will risk a confrontation with Beijing, the consequence of which could be a cross-strait conflict,” said the official, who requested anonymity.
On Tuesday, Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, warned the island against holding any referendum on constitutional revision, saying it would be doomed to end in an impasse and would ultimately fail.
“It will only push Taiwan towards an extremely dangerous abyss and bring disasters to Taiwanese compatriots,” she said.
Chinese air force’s drill ‘aimed at signalling deterrent around Taiwan’
2 Apr 2020
But according to Wang Kung-yi, a political science professor at Chinese Culture University in Taipei, Tsai should not be too worried about the hardline camp move.
“The hardline camp has been marginalised greatly in the past several years as reflected by the poor showing in the legislative elections in January,” Wang said, adding that he expected Tsai to continue her relatively moderate cross-strait policy of not sharply provoking the mainland.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 