28/04/2020
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.
While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.
That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.
“The recovery so far has been led by a bounce-back in production, however, the growth bottleneck has decisively shifted to the demand side, as global growth has weakened and consumption recovery has lagged amid continued social distancing,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
“The expected slump in external demand has likely capped further recovery in industrial production.”
The latest official data showed 84% of mid-sized and small business had reopened as of April 15, compared with 71.7% on March 24.
Hobbled by the coronavirus, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since current quarterly records began.
That has left Chinese manufacturers with reduced export orders and a logistics logjam, as many exporters grapple with rising inventory, high costs and falling profits. Some have let workers go as part of the cost-cutting efforts.
A China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimated that the country’s real unemployment rate, measured using international standards, could exceed 20%, equal to more than 70 million job losses and much higher than March’s official reading of 5.9%.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy head at the statistics bureau, said on Sunday migrant workers and college graduates are facing increasing pressures to secure jobs, while official jobless surveys show nearly 20% of employed workers not working in March.
Chinese authorities have rolled out more support to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China earlier in April cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves and reduced the interest rate on lenders’ excess reserves.
Source: Reuters
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04/04/2020
- Lockdown may have been lifted, but shops, bars and restaurants remain empty in Beijing, showing struggle facing economic recovery
- Controls have been returning in other parts of China, where cinemas and tourist attractions shut amid fears of new wave of infections
The nearly two month-long lockdown has changed the consumption behaviour of Chinese residents, many of whom have turned to home cooking to cut their spending. Photo: AFP
China’s urban lockdown may have eased, but deserted streets and stores in the capital Beijing this week suggest that for the services sector, the impact of the coronavirus outbreak could be deeper and longer than expected.
Many restaurants, cafes and pubs remained closed in the city, where vigilance remains high about a second wave of infections. Among those that were open, there were few customers to be seen.
The usually crowded Wangfujing shopping street was quiet on Wednesday, with just a few shoppers patronising what is usually the heartbeat of the city’s commerce and tourism. There were more staff than consumers at the Apple store, while everyone wore a mask. Shops along the pedestrianised zone closed their doors before sunset, but many did not open at all.
In a downtown food court, a handful of people dined during what would usually be the lunch rush hour, each restricted to their own small table to maintain social distancing, in great contrast with the usual frantic dash for seats.
Coronavirus: What impact will the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic have on you?
While China has largely stemmed the domestic spread of Covid-19, threats of imported cases, with the virus having infected over one million people worldwide, and asymptomatic carriers continue to hamper the recovery in China’s
A survey published on Friday showed that in March, sentiment among small service sector firms remained depressed. The Caixin / Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 43.0 for last month, with a number below 50 meaning the sector is shrinking. “There are too few people now. We only sold about a hundred bowls of noodles, that was just half of our normal level,” said one Beijing street vendor, who had also cut many items from the menu due to insufficient demand.
A bookstore in the city centre held an official opening ceremony after a soft opening followed by a two and a half month-long forced shutdown, but received only four visitors on a morning, one of which was the South China Morning Post reporter. All four were required to go through a body temperature check and write down their personal contact details before entering.
Service sector workers said the situation was surreal and that they were worried that there was no end in sight.
“I have never seen KFC look like this,” said an employee of the fast food chain restaurant at Wangfujing, pointing to the virtually empty dining hall.
A grocer at a nearby food market continually shook her head when talking about the decline in customers, but said she felt lucky that she could come back to Beijing from her hometown before the 14-day mandatory quarantine requirement was imposed on February 14.
This situation is not restricted to Beijing. When the Chinese government reopened around 500 cinemas nationwide in March, each one attracted on average
per day.
Now, many places across China are reimposing controls amid fears of a new spike in infections, the same fear leading people to stay home instead of going to those venues which have reopened.
Shanghai has closed tourist attractions while Sichuan has again closed karaoke lounges. Cinemas have also been reclosed across the country.
President Xi Jinping said during a visit to Hangzhou last Sunday that China must remain alert. “If you want to watch a movie, rather than going to a cinema, you can watch it online,” Xi said.
Services account for 60 per cent of China’s economy and the majority of employment. The slowness of the sector’s recovery is placing huge pressure on the world’s second
at a time when manufacturers are seeing export orders nosedive.
Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst at Zhongtai Securities, a brokerage, said that China’s damaged consumption alone could drag economic growth down by 4.5 per cent in the second quarter.
“(Chinese) residents’ fear of the epidemic is not over,” he wrote in a note this week.
Beijing’s malls still empty after coronavirus lockdown lifted
In Beijing all travellers entering the city are required to undergo a 14-day quarantine, while mass gatherings are still forbidden.
The containment measures have stopped many migrant workers from getting back to
, if they still exist. Many local residents still choose to work from home, even though authorities had been trying to encourage people to go out and spend money.
On April 1, the traffic flow on Beijing’s subway system was 3.05 million passengers a day, less than a third of the level a year ago, according to the operator, while car traffic was still about 15 per cent less than it was last year, government data showed.
I will keep cooking for myself, even when everything goes back to normal, it is much healthier and cheaper – Beijing resident
The nearly two month-long lockdown has changed the consumption behaviour of Chinese residents, many of whom have turned to home cooking to cut their spending.
“I will keep cooking for myself, even when everything goes back to normal, it is much healthier and cheaper,” said a Beijing lawyer whose family name is Li.
The effect of this behavioural shift is borne out in the 17.9 per cent drop in retail sales in the capital over the first two months of the year, only slightly better than the nationwide drop of 20.5 per cent.
Beijing businesses have clubbed together to issue some 150 million yuan in
to lure customers in since March 18. But with more economic hardship ahead, businesses and consumers alike are hunkering down for the storm.
Source: SCMP
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01/09/2019
- The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, was 49.5 in August
- Figure adds to a month of woe for policymakers in Beijing, even ahead of planned US tariff increases on September 1, October 1, and December 15
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell by 0.2 points in August as the trade war continued to bite. Photo: Xinhua
As the trade war with the United States continues to gather pace, manufacturers in China remain gloomy about their prospects, with the sector activity contracting for the fourth successive month in August.
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Saturday, stood at 49.5 in August, down from a reading of
, and below analysts’ expectations. The median result of a survey of analysts by Bloomberg expected a reading of 49.6.
The PMI is a gauge of sentiment among factory operators, with 50 being the demarcation line between expansion and contraction in sector activity. In the survey, manufacturers are asked to give a view on business issues such as export orders, purchasing, production and logistics.
That the index has remained in contractionary territory for six of eight months this year shows that the effects of US tariffs are resonating through the Chinese economy. The manufacturing PMI only showed expansion in March and April of this year.
New and higher US tariffs scheduled to enter force on September 1, October 1 and December 15 could provide some very temporary boost to Chinese exports and therefore manufacturers, should they inspire American buyers to make early purchases to pay lower tariff rates. However the long term trajectory is negative, with many manufacturers scoping out or already relocating to production sites outside the world’s second largest economy.
Also released on Saturday was the official non-manufacturing PMI, a survey of the construction and services sectors. This stood at 53.8, up from 53.7 in July, showing that these sectors have remained more robust in the face of a general slowdown in China’s economy. The Bloomberg survey of analysts had expected non-manufacturing PMI in August to remain unchanged.
Composite PMI, a combined reading of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, was 53, down from 53.1 in July.
The August PMI decline “indicates downward pressure on the economy,” said Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which produces the index with the NBS.
“Corporations’ forecasts of the market outlook were quite poor while being cautious on their production operations,” Zhang said. The PMI indicated a drop in new orders, which also reflected a lack of domestic demand. Given that the US is escalating tensions with China, downward pressure on external demand is also apparent, Zhang said.
August was a month to forget for policymakers in Beijing, with a series of negative data highlighting the serious economic challenges facing the nation. With the trade war threatening to tip the global economy into a recession, China remains heavily exposed.
The trade war is having a significant impact on Chinese manufacturing. Photo: Xinhua
While exports grew by 3.3 per cent in July, a sign of front-loading, imports fell by 5.6 per cent, emphasising the issues with consumption in China. This problem was also clear in retail sales figure, which came in at a disappointing 7.6 per cent for July, down from 9.8 per cent growth in June.
, a measure of output in China’s manufacturing and mining sectors, grew by just 4.8 per cent in July, the lowest reading since February 2002.
Gross domestic product in China for the second quarter of 2019 grew at 6.2 per cent, the lowest rate since NBS quarterly records began in 1992.
Source: SCMP
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31/05/2019
- The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a gauge of sentiment among factory operators, fell to 49.4 in May
- This was a decrease on April’s performance of 50.1, and below the median expectations of a poll of Bloomberg analysts, which had predicted a drop to just 49.9
An index reading above 50 indicates growth, while anything below 50 indicates a contraction. Photo: AFP
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell further in May, suggesting the economy is continuing to slow amid the escalating trade war with the United States.
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a gauge of sentiment among factory operators, fell to 49.4 in May, a decrease on
of 50.1, and well below the median expectations of a poll of Bloomberg analysts, which had predicted a drop to 49.9. A reading of below 50 means that the activity in the sector is contracting.
The 49.4 reading was the lowest since February’s 49.2.
Non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors, remained the same as last month at 54.3, in line with the expectations of the Bloomberg poll.
“The fall in the headline index was mostly driven by weaker new orders. Export orders dropped back particularly sharply, which suggests that [US President Donald] Trump’s latest tariff hike may already be undermining foreign demand,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.
“Stocks of raw materials continued to decline, reversing the build-up of inventories ahead of the 1 April VAT cut that helped to temporarily boost output in March.”
The composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and services activity, was 53.3 in May, a slight decrease on 53.4 a month earlier.
An index reading above 50 indicates growth, while anything below 50 indicates a contraction.
The fall in the headline index was mostly driven by weaker new orders. Export orders dropped back particularly sharply, which suggests that [US President Donald] Trump’s latest tariff hike may already be undermining foreign demand.Julian Evans-Pritchard
The dip into contractionary territory for China’s manufacturing sentiment will be a concern to policymakers in Beijing, as they struggle to contain the effect the trade war is having on both economic mood and investment sentiment. While both composite and non-manufacturing PMIs remained above contraction levels, their stagnation points to continued challenges facing China’s economy.
The new data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), combined with weaker economic data readings for April, suggest that Chinese growth slowed in the second quarter after stabilising at 6.4 per cent in the first quarter.
Details of the data show that within the manufacturing PMI, new orders were 49.8, down from 51.4 in April. Output also fell to 51.7, from 52.1 last month, while employment fell to 47.0 from 47.2 and new export orders plunged to 46.5 from 49.2.
Within the non-manufacturing PMI, the service sector was up to 53.5 from 53.2 in April, which the NBS said showed that “the service industry continued to maintain rapid growth”.
Details of the data show that within the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, new orders were 49.8, down from 51.4 in April Photo: AFP
“China’s non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.3 per cent, which was the same as last month, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry continued to develop steadily and rapidly,” said the NBS statement.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Research Centre at the NBS, said that “there was some fluctuation in the manufacturing boom” and pointed to slowing demand as the cause of the slump.
“In May, the manufacturing PMI fell back. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 of the industry’s production indices are located in the expansion range, indicating that most industries in the manufacturing industry are relatively stable in production and operation,” said Zhao.
Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 of the industry’s production indices are located in the expansion range, indicating that most industries in the manufacturing industry are relatively stable in production and operation.Zhao Qinghe
Zhao added that “the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have maintained a stable development trend”.
The deterioration in the PMI sentiment data was expected after the US escalated the trade war on May 10. From Saturday, a higher tariff of 25 per cent – increased from the earlier 10 per cent rate – will apply to US$200 billion of Chinese imports to the US. The US is also processing a tariff of up to 25 per cent on a further US$300 billion of Chinese goods, which would put significant further pressure on the Chinese economy. China has already retaliated by placing variable tariffs on US$60 billion of US imports.
Even before the escalation of the trade war, Chinese economic data in April was disappointing.
Retail sales growth slowed to 7.2 per cent in April – the lowest rate in 16 years – from 8.7 per cent in March, while industrial production growth slowed markedly to 5.4 per cent from 8.4 per cent. Exports fell 2.7 per cent in April compared with the same period in 2018, a sharp reversal from the 14.2 per cent rise in March.
While many private analysts expected the Chinese government to enact further
to offset the slowdown in growth, Beijing has so far refused to commit to doing so.
In part, the government is counting on already implemented personal and business tax cuts – including the trimming of the value-added tax rate for manufacturing firms – to gradually provide support for the economy.
Industrial profits stood at 515.39 billion yuan (US$74.7 billion) last month, down 3.7 per cent compared to a year earlier. Photo: AFP
The PMI rounds off a poor week for China’s economy after Monday’s industrial profits released by the NBS showed the fastest slump in almost three and a half years in April.
stood at 515.39 billion yuan (US$74.7 billion) last month, down 3.7 per cent compared to a year earlier, the largest percentage decline since December 2015. With further tariffs about to kick in on
, there is significant capacity for the downward trend to continue.
Fitch Ratings, in a
this month, said that the escalation could lead to half a per cent being detracted from the Chinese economy this year, which would bring it to the lower limits of Beijing’s target growth range of between 6.0 and 6.5 per cent.
It is expected that a surge in orders will lead to a bumper month of exports in May and June as US importers and Chinese exporters attempt to front-load their stocks to beat the tariffs.
are already shipping their stocks earlier, reporting has shown, as they look to manage the risk of the trade tariffs.
Source: SCMP
Posted in Bloomberg, economic pressures, manufacturing index, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), negative territory, purchasing managers’ index (PMI), Service Industry Research Centre, Uncategorized, Value added tax |
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