Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
, the People’s Liberation Army said on Friday, amid a growing number of patrols and exercises by US warships in the region.
The drill, which involved two aircraft, was conducted earlier this month, not long before the US naval and marine units took part in expeditionary strike force training in the disputed waters, the PLA Navy said in a report.
While acknowledging the difficulties involved in such an operation, the report said the aircraft successfully identified several suspicious objects.
“Anti-submarine exercises are like trying to find a needle in a haystack. It’s difficult, the underwater hydrological conditions are complex,” Yu Yang, the captain of one of the aircraft, was quoted as saying.
But by having two planes working together, it “increase[d] the probability of finding a submarine”, he said.
The anti-submarine exercise involved two aircraft from the PLA Navy. Photo: Handout
Wang Shelin, one of the commanders of the exercise, said that anti-submarine operations were not only dangerous but a real test of the pilots’ skills.
Successfully completing the mission demanded precise “control of the speed and altitude of the aircraft”, he said.
The publication of the PLA report came after the United States staged a four-day exercise in the South China Sea last week involving the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, the America Expeditionary Strike Group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit.
At the end of last month, the US Navy accused the PLA of “unsafe and unprofessional” behaviour after a Chinese destroyer pointed a laser at an American maritime patrol aircraft flying over international waters west of Guam.
Collin Koh, a research fellow with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the Chinese military was keen to promote its anti-submarine capabilities.
“This means we can expect to see more such exercises in the future, with no let up because of the coronavirus,” he said.
“You can also see this as a response not only to the [recent] carrier strike group operations, but the intensified US military presence in the South China Sea.
“And it would not be surprising if a nuclear attack submarine was in the vicinity of the carrier strike group,” he said.
Chinese and US defence chiefs discuss coronavirus crisis in phone call
4 Mar 2020
Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based commentator on military affairs, said that with the possibility of a military conflict growing in the South China Sea, it was important for the PLA Navy to increase its anti-submarine training.
“The rivalry between the great powers is getting more and more intense, and the PLA must strengthen its preparations,” he said.
Echoing commander Wang’s comments, Song said that the high volume of maritime traffic and sheer size and depth of the South China Sea made searching for submarines difficult.
“So the PLA is trying to enhance its capabilities by constantly installing and testing new anti-submarine equipment,” he said.
Seoul’s handling of the outbreak emphasises transparency and relies heavily on public cooperation in place of hardline measures such as lockdowns
While uncertainties remain, it is increasingly viewed by public health experts as a model to emulate for authorities desperate to keep Covid-19 in check
A woman wearing a face mask walks along the Han river at a park in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: AP
After announcing 600 new cases for March 3, the authorities reported 131 new infections a week later. On Friday, officials reported just 110, the lowest daily toll since February 21. The same day, the number of recovered patients, 177, exceeded new infections for the first time.President Moon Jae-in, while cautioning against premature optimism, has expressed hope that South Korea could soon enter a “phase of stability” if the trend holds firm.
With about 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 65 deaths, it was until recently the country with the most confirmed cases outside China – but South Korea has since emerged as a source of inspiration and hope for authorities around the world as they scramble to fight the pandemic.
South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
11 Mar 2020
As countries ranging from the United States to Italy and Iran struggle to manage the virus, Seoul’s handling of the outbreak – involving a highly coordinated government response that has emphasised transparency and relied heavily on public cooperation in place of hardline measures such as lockdowns – is increasingly viewed by public health experts as a model to emulate for authorities desperate to keep the virus under control.
Whereas China, where the virus originated, and more recently Italy have placed millions of their citizens on lockdown, South Korea has not restricted people’s movements – not even in Daegu, the southeastern city at the centre of the country’s outbreak.
Instead, authorities have focused mandatory quarantine on infected patients and those with whom they have come into close contact, while advising the public to stay indoors, avoid public events, wear masks and practise good hygiene.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on March 11. Photo: EPA
And while numerous countries have imposed sweeping travel bans – including the US, which has introduced dramatic restrictions on travel from Europe – Seoul has instead introduced “special immigration procedures” for heavily affected countries such as China, requiring travellers to undergo temperature checks, provide verified contact information and fill out health questionnaires.
[South Korea’s] approach seems less dramatic and more usable by other countries, compared with that used in mainland China – Ian MacKay, virologist at the University of Queensland
“More than a week of downward-trending case counts shows that the approach in South Korea has turned around an epidemic,” said Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland, Australia. “This approach seems less dramatic and more usable by other countries, compared with that used in mainland China. If these trends continue, they will have managed to stop the growth of their epidemic.”
‘A SPECTACULAR FEAT’
The linchpin of South Korea’s response has been a testing programme that has screened more people per capita for the virus than any other country by far. By carrying out up to 15,000 tests per day, health officials have been able to screen some 250,000 people – about one in every 200 South Koreans – since January.
To encourage participation, testing is free for anyone referred by a doctor or displaying symptoms after recent contact with a confirmed case or travel to China. For anyone simply concerned about the risk of infection, the cost is a relatively affordable 160,000 won (US$135). Testing is available at hundreds of clinics, as well as some 50 drive-through testing stations that took their inspiration from past counterterrorism drills and can screen suspected patients in minutes.
“This country has a universal health-coverage system for the whole population and the economic burden for testing is very low,” said Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology. “Tests are conducted for free if you have proper symptoms.”
The massive volume of data collected has enabled the authorities to pinpoint clusters of infection to better target their quarantine and disinfection efforts, and send members of the public text-message alerts to inform them of the past movements of infected patients in their area – even down to the names of shops and restaurants they visited.
This country has a universal health coverage system for the whole population and the economic burden for testing is very low – Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology
“South Korea’s capability to test for early detection of viruses has developed greatly as it went through the 2009 new influenza outbreak and 2015 Mers [Middle East respiratory syndrome] outbreak,” said Kim Woo-joo, a professor of medicine at Korea University’s College of Medicine. “It ranks among the world’s top countries in this field.”
South Korea’s ‘drive-through’ coronavirus testing stations
Collecting this amount of data has also allowed the South Korean authorities to glean a clearer indication of the potential lethality of the virus, the fatality rate of which has diverged significantly from about 5 per cent in Italy to about 0.8 per cent in South Korea. Although factors including quality of health care, patient age and public awareness can affect the fatality rate of a virus, the scale of testing is among the most influential.
By comparison, in neighbouring Japan – which has confirmed more than 600 cases, not including the virus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship – the authorities had as of Friday tested over 10,000 people.
In the United States, where the authorities are unable to confirm the number of tests since they are being carried out by a patchwork of federal, state and private laboratories, the total was estimated to be fewer than 5,000 in a survey of available data by The Atlantic.
William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in the US, said South Korea had pulled off a “spectacular” feat that was allowing health officials to track the virus and assess its intensity.
“We are unsure where our infection is and how intensely it is being transmitted in the US and we are only now starting to test,” he said.
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South Korea is not unique in claiming some success in its fight against the virus. Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, informed by past outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and Mers, have managed to keep confirmed cases low while eschewing the sort of draconian measures implemented in mainland China.
Early on, Hong Kong took some of the most comprehensive steps to implement “social distancing” – in which events are cancelled and venues closed to minimise contact between people – by shutting schools in late January, while the authorities produced a digital map of confirmed cases to allow people to avoid potentially infected areas.
In Taiwan, officials have pooled information from immigration and health insurance databases to track people’s travel histories and symptoms, and used phone tracking to ensure compliance with quarantine. Singapore has similarly tracked infected patients and traced their contacts, with stiff penalties for those who disobey quarantine or mislead the authorities about where they have travelled.
A worker disinfects a Seoul subway station as a precaution against the new coronavirus. Photo: AP
OPENNESS AND TRANSPARENCY
But where South Korea has stood apart is seemingly turning the tide against a major outbreak while maintaining openness and transparency. The largest cluster of cases in the country is linked to a secretive religious sect, Shincheonji, members of which have been accused of negligently spreading the virus as well as evading medical follow-ups and testing.
In addressing the Covid-19 outbreak, sound decision-making should not be about making a choice between maximised protection or minimal disruption – Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations
“South Korea’s experience suggests that a country can contain the spread of the virus in a relatively short period of time without relying on draconian, at-all-costs containment measures,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
“For countries like the US, the Korean experience offers an acceptable, likely more viable, alternative to addressing the outbreak. In addressing the Covid-19 outbreak, sound decision-making should not be about making a choice between maximised protection and minimal disruption.”
China effectively barred 60 million people in Wuhan – ground zero of the outbreak – and the rest of the province of Hubei from leaving their homes, while restricting the movements of hundreds of millions of others across the country by shutting down public transport, banning private cars and setting up roadblocks.
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The country claims to have effectively halted the spread of the virus after recording more than 80,000 cases and 3,100 deaths, and its daily updates have in recent weeks fallen from thousands of new cases to dozens. However, scepticism lingers over official figures after local and provincial officials in Hubei initially tried to hide the extent of the outbreak.
In a move widely seen to be aimed at touting the success of Beijing’s hardline measures, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday made his first visit to Wuhan, during which he called for businesses and factories to return to work as normal and for the country to refocus on economic growth.
“While China has been able to control Covid-19, I don’t think its draconian methods are worth copying in liberal democracies,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University Law Centre in Washington. “Most democracies value human rights and freedoms … [not] the degree of social control we’ve seen in China. South Korea offers a better model.”
A nearly empty customer call centre in the Gocheok-dong neighbourhood of Seoul as workers isolate or work from home. Photo: EPA
But in a striking indication that Beijing’s harsh tactics could inform even liberal democratic societies, Italy on Monday announced a nationwide quarantine after a massive spike in cases caught the authorities off guard. Shops, restaurants and bars have been closed, while public gatherings and most travel have been banned in the European country, which has confirmed more than 15,000 cases and 1,000 deaths as of Friday – making it the site of the biggest outbreak outside China.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday announced a lockdown of the entire Metro Manila region and its 12.8 million people.
David Hui Shu-cheong, an expert in respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said Italy had responded “very slowly” to the outbreak, in contrast to South Korea.
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Even as Beijing touted its success at fighting the virus, with state media recently insisting the “world owes China a ‘thank you’”, South Korea – which democratised in the late 1980s following decades of military dictatorship – has made no secret of its desire to promote a more liberal alternative.
At a press conference with foreign media this week, vice-health minister Kim Gang-lip said that while drastic measures such as locking down affected areas had demonstrated “modest effectiveness”, they suffered from being “coercive and inflexible”.
“Korea, as a democratic country, values globalisation and a pluralistic society,” he said.
“Therefore we believe we must transcend the limitations of the conventional approach to fighting infectious disease.”
Kim stressed that public trust was crucial to the government’s strategy. “The more transparently and quickly accurate information is provided, the more the people will trust the government,” he said. “They will act rationally for the good of the community at large.”
South Korean ministers listen to Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (on screen) during a meeting to discuss measures to deal with the spread of the new coronavirus. Photo: EPA
UNKNOWN FACTORS
Although the authorities have shut down schools nationwide, South Koreans have largely embraced self-isolation and social distancing of their own accord.
In the past fortnight, more than 12,000 businesses have applied for subsidies to pay the wages of employees while they temporarily close their doors due to the outbreak, according to the country’s labour ministry. Many shops in Daegu, the site of more than three-quarters of the country’s cases, have shut their doors, while shopping malls and cinemas across the country have become largely deserted as people stay at home. Catholic churches and Buddhist temples nationwide have suspended mass and prayer services.
“To an outsider, South Korea has handled an enormous surge in cases very well and seemed to mitigate further spread through forms of … passive social isolation,” said Howard P. Forman, a professor of public health policy at Yale School of Management.
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Some experts suggest South Korean society’s emphasis on discipline and community may have given it room to avoid implementing more draconian measures.
“This measure appears to have been very successful but is reliant on the local population working with the response,” said Jeremy Rossman, an honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent. “It is not clear how effective this approach would be in other cultures and it does require effective communication with the local population.”
How a secretive church in South Korea became a coronavirus ‘super spreader’
However, South Korea’s response has not been without missteps or critics.
In mid-February, before it emerged that the virus had spread rapidly among Shincheonji followers, Moon made the ill-fated prediction that the outbreak would “disappear before long”.
The Korean Medical Association – the country’s largest association of doctors – and conservative media have criticised the president for not outright banning travel from China.
Nearly 1.5 million South Koreans have signed an online petition calling for Moon’s impeachment over his handling of the outbreak, and his approval rating this week dropped to just under 45 per cent – although, in a sign of reviving fortunes, an opinion poll released on Friday saw the president’s response rated favourably.
Medical workers attend to a woman who was feeling unwell upon her arrival at the Keimyung University hospital in Daegu. Photo: AFP
It is still too early to say whether the response is working – Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology
Some experts caution that it is too early to tell if South Korea truly has the virus under control. The discovery of a new cluster of about 100 infections at a call centre in densely populated Seoul prompted a sudden uptick in cases on Wednesday, raising fears the virus could be on the verge of spreading uncontrollably nationwide.
“It is still too early to say whether the response is working,” said Kim, the president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology. “There is an optical illusion involved in the figures. The daily numbers of new cases appear to be decreasing as the screening of Shincheonji followers is coming to an end, but it must be noted that there are new clusters emerging in Seoul and other areas. We can’t lower vigilance.”
Like elsewhere, the country is facing unknown factors such as warming temperatures in the coming weeks and the arrival of travellers from new and emerging infection hotspots overseas. “We are seeing that in South Korea, large epidemics can be slowed,” said Mackay from the University of Queensland. “Can they be prevented? That will be the challenge for countries who have yet to see widespread community transmission.”
In the face of uncertainty, South Korea appears determined to hold firm to its strategy. During a visit to the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday, Moon said the country’s response had received international recognition and allowed it to avoid the “extreme choice” of sweeping travel bans.
The next day, responding to the World Health Organisation’s decision to declare the virus a global pandemic, the president called on South Koreans to maintain hope that the virus would be overcome.
“It might take more time than we thought,” Moon said. “Everyone, please don’t become fatigued.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Chief Executive Carrie Lam said the majority of Hong Kong’s cases had been imported
Hong Kong will quarantine all people arriving from abroad for 14 days, its leader Carrie Lam has said.
The restrictions, which will kick in on Thursday, will not apply to those from Macau or Taiwan. Entrants from mainland China already had to self-isolate.
Ms Lam said the majority of Hong Kong’s cases had been imported, adding that “strict measures” were needed.
Hong Kong has seen 57 new infections over the past two weeks, 50 of which were imported, said Ms Lam.
“If we exclude these imported, we only have seven local cases in the past week,” she said.
“If we do not impose strict measures, our previous efforts could be wasted.”
Ms Lam also advised residents to avoid all non-essential travel.
There are at least 155 confirmed cases in the territory, which detected its first cases in January.
The territory – a special administrative region of China – has so far been able to avoid the contagion seen elsewhere, thanks partly to a quick government response.
In January, cross-border travel with mainland China was slashed. Soon afterwards, health workers went on strike to demand a total border shutdown.
Some of the restrictions in the Asia-Pacific region, as of 17 March:
Australia – All travellers will have to self-isolate for 14 days. Foreign nationals who have been to China, Iran, Korea and Italy not allowed in
New Zealand – Everyone entering the country will have to self-isolate for 14 days. This excludes those from small Pacific islands with no confirmed virus cases
South Korea – Travellers from China’s Hubei province not allowed in. International arrivals from certain countries will need to submit papers on their health condition
Singapore – All visitors with travel history to France, Germany, Italy, Spain, South Korea and China banned from entering or transiting. Residents with recent history to these countries will have to self-isolate for 14 days. All those entering from Japan, Switzerland, the UK and Asean countries will have to self-isolate for 14 days
Malaysia – All foreign visitors have been banned, all Malaysians will not be allowed to travel overseas until 31 March. All returning Malaysians will have to self quarantine for 14 days
Japan – Ban on entry to travellers who have been to parts of China, South Korea, Iran or Italy in 14 days before arrival
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths outside China has now surpassed the number inside.
More than 100,000 people have been infected outside China, while just over 80,000 cases have been reported inside.
There have been more than 182,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus globally and over 7,000 deaths, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University.
Media caption Steps the NHS says you should take to protect yourself from Covid-19
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Authorities are also asking overseas Chinese to reconsider travel plans
Travellers from countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks who arrive in some parts of China will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine, state media say.
Travellers from the virus hotspots of South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy arriving in the capital will have to be isolated, a Beijing official has said.
Shanghai and Guangdong announced similar restrictions earlier.
Authorities are worried the virus might be imported back into the country.
Although most virus deaths have been in China, Monday saw nine times more new infections outside China than in.
Shanghai said it would require new arrivals from countries with “relatively serious virus conditions” to be isolated, without naming the countries.
Authorities are also asking overseas Chinese to reconsider travel plans.
“For the sake of your family’s health and safety, please strengthen your precautions, carefully decide on your travel plans and minimise mobility,” officials in one southern Chinese province said.
China reported 125 new virus cases on Tuesday – the lowest number of new daily infections in six weeks. There were also 31 more deaths – all in Hubei province, where the virus emerged.
In other developments:
Finance ministers from the G7 countries have said they are “ready to take action”, including fiscal measures to aid the response to the virus and support the global economy
The Pope, who had cancelled a Lent retreat for the first time in his papacy because he was suffering from a cold, has tested negative for the virus, Italian media report
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has put the country into a “state of war” and ordered all government departments to shift to a 24-hour emergency system
Jailed British-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is in good health, Iran’s judiciary has said. She was assessed after her husband said she was showing symptoms of Covid-19
Media caption Julie, who lives in Singapore, was diagnosed with coronavirus and then put into isolation
How are different countries affected?
There are now almost 90,000 cases worldwide in about 70 countries, although the vast majority – just under 90% – remain in China, and most of those are in Hubei province where the virus originated late last year.
Of the nearly 8,800 cases outside China, 81% are in four countries – Iran, South Korea, Italy and Japan.
One of the countries worst affected outside China – Italy – said on Monday that the death toll there had risen by 18 to 52. There are 1,835 confirmed cases, most of them in the Lombardy and Veneto areas of the north. Nearly 150 people are said to have recovered.
However, the country is seeing a slowdown in new cases. On Monday, the authorities said there were 258 new cases of the virus – a 16% increase on the previous day – after new cases spiked by 50% on Sunday.
On Tuesday, Iran said the latest death toll from the virus was 77 – although the real figure is believed to be much higher. More than 2,300 people are said to be infected, including senior political figures. The head of Iran’s emergency medical services, Pirhossein Kolivand, was one of them, the Ilna news agency reported on Tuesday.
Some 23 MPs are also reported to have tested positive for the virus, and an official close to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reported on Monday to have died of the disease.
Health officials in the US state of Washington said on Monday that four more people had died, bringing the total there to six. They are the only deaths in the US so far. Local officials say they are buying a hotel to convert it into an isolation hospital.
On Tuesday, Ukraine confirmed its first case of coronavirus, while Portugal, Iceland, Jordan, Tunisia, Armenia, Latvia, Senegal, Morocco and Andorra confirmed their first cases on Monday.
How deadly is Covid-19?
The WHO says the virus appears to particularly affect those over 60, and people already ill.
In the first large analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death rate was 10 times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.
Most patients have only mild symptoms and the death rate appears to be between 2% and 5%, the WHO said.
By comparison, seasonal flu has an average mortality rate of about 0.1%, but is highly infectious – with up to 400,000 people dying from it each year.
Other strains of coronavirus, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers), have much higher death rates than Covid-19.
State-owned carrier’s chief says it wouldn’t be ‘morally acceptable’ to stop flying to the country, and it will stand with its ‘Chinese brothers and sisters’
Dozens of airlines have cancelled or reduced services to the nation amid the virus outbreak, including two East African rivals
Ethiopian Airlines says it will continue flying to China. The routes are among its most profitable. Photo: Shutterstock
Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s largest and most profitable carrier, will continue flying to China despite growing pressure for it to suspend services to the country as
Dozens of airlines around the globe have cancelled or reduced their services to cities in the world’s second-largest economy amid fears over the outbreak. Its East African rivals Kenya Airways and RwandAir have both suspended flights to China until the outbreak is contained.
But Ethiopian Airlines chief executive Tewolde GebreMariam said the carrier would not abandon the routes, which are among its most profitable.
Tewolde told media over the weekend that the airline had been flying to China since 1973 and it would not be ethical to suspend flights to the country.
“It will not be morally acceptable to stop flying to China today because they have a temporary problem,” he said, adding that the airline would stand with its “Chinese brothers and sisters”.
His remarks came days after Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta put pressure on the Ethiopian government – which wholly owns Ethiopian Airlines – to halt flights to China, citing the need to curb the spread of the virus into the East African region.
Global coronavirus deaths equal Sars, while new infections drop
The airline has bucked a trend that has seen major airlines – from the United States to Europe and Asia – staying away from Chinese airspace as governments around the world move to keep the deadly virus from their borders. The pneumonia-like illness has so far
in mainland China since the outbreak began in Wuhan in December, with cases reported in more than 20 other countries worldwide.
Speaking during a visit to Washington last week, Kenyatta – who is keen to court both China and the US – insisted that Kenya’s decision to suspend flights from Guangzhou to Nairobi was not political.
He said most African countries had weak health systems that would make it harder to handle the outbreak, so preventing its spread – even if through extreme measures such as grounding flights – was the only option.
“Our worry as a country is not that China cannot manage the disease. Our biggest worry is diseases coming into areas with weaker health systems like ours,” Kenyatta said while addressing members of US think tank the Atlantic Council.
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But Ethiopian Airlines said it would continue flying to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Hong Kong and was taking measures to protect staff and passengers. Ethiopia receives about 1,500 visitors from mainland China every day.
According to Tewolde, if the airline halted its Chinese services, China and Africa would be completely disconnected.
“No one in Ethiopian Airlines would like to see this,” he said. “We have to take maximum precautions, but stopping flights is not one of them.”
He added: “Even if we stop flying, people will continue to come to Ethiopia through Singapore, Malaysia, Europe. The transmission of the disease will be dangerously hidden … British Airways stopped flying to China for its economic reasons. But Chinese carriers are flying to the UK.”
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In a separate statement, the carrier said China was “one of the strongest and one of the oldest markets for Ethiopian Airlines”.
“We have been connecting the great Chinese nation with the entire continent of African for almost half a century and it is our growth strategy,” the airline said, adding that it would continue operating in the five cities in compliance with international aviation and health guidelines.
Aside from seeking to shore up revenues, analysts noted that the airline was under tight state control, and Ethiopia would be reluctant to do anything that might harm its strong bilateral ties with China.
Ethiopia is among the nations on the continent with the highest number of Chinese immigrants. Most of them are workers involved in the construction of infrastructure projects including ports, railways, dams, bridges and malls. Those projects have been financed with billions of dollars in loans from China – Ethiopia is reportedly among the biggest recipients of Chinese lending in Africa.
Last year, China was forced to restructure Ethiopia’s debt after the latter edged closer to defaulting on a loan from Beijing for its standard gauge railway.
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Ethiopia, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria and Zambia together accounted for nearly 60 per cent of all Chinese workers on the continent at the end of 2017, according to a study by Johns Hopkins University.
Ethiopia is also a major recipient of direct foreign investment from China.
It started with a cough by a passenger who had visited China, leading to the two-week quarantine of some 3,700 passengers and crew
At least 218 cases have been detected on board the Diamond Princess, which has been described as ill-equipped to prevent the spread of infections
Passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise liner are under quarantine until February 19, 2020. Photo: Reuters
For almost a fortnight and counting, the Diamond Princess has resembled a floating hospital more than a luxury cruise liner, as 3,711 passengers and crew have remained under quarantine in Japan due to an outbreak of the deadly coronavirus on board.
The UK-flagged vessel, which set out on a 29-day voyage from Singapore to Yokohama on January 6, has been in lock-down since arriving at the Japanese city on February 3, after an elderly passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong tested positive for the virus, which causes the respiratory disease officially known as Covid-19.
Along the way, the ship had stopped at 14 ports, including Ho Chi Minh City in
Kobe and Osaka in Japan, and Taipei in Taiwan, with repeat visits to a number of destinations, including Hong Kong.
How did the outbreak start?
While the exact source of the outbreak on the Diamond Princess is yet to be determined, it is suspected to be linked to a 80-year-old man from Hong Kong who had recently made a brief visit to mainland China.
The man boarded the ship on January 20 in Yokohama before disembarking five days later in Hong Kong, where he tested positive for the virus after seeking medical attention for symptoms including a cough.
Coronavirus: 44 more cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship
13 Feb 2020
How many people have tested positive for the coronavirus on board?
Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato announced on Thursday that 44 new cases
of the virus had been detected on the Diamond Princess, including a quarantine officer who tested positive, bringing the total number of infections on board to at least 218.
The hike in infections came after officials announced 40 fresh cases on Wednesday. Authorities have so far tested 713 people on board, fewer than one-fifth of the total, but the outbreak already ranks as the largest single cluster of infections outside mainland
Japan has confirmed 247 cases overall since the virus was first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late December.
Passengers are allowed short visits above deck for fresh air. Photo: Reuters
What has it been like for passengers on board?
Passengers who have not been diagnosed with the coronavirus have been asked to stay in their cabins, except for short visits above deck for fresh air, until the quarantine period ends on February 19.
Those who have tested positive have been evacuated to onshore medical facilities. Health officials announced on Thursday that they intended to move elderly people and those with pre-existing conditions off the ship in the coming days even if they tested negative.
Many of those on board have described the tedium of being confined to their cabins and anxiety about the virus spreading further, or expressed frustration at the lack of timely information about the outbreak coming from Japanese authorities.
“It’s getting tougher by the day, and certainly for passengers with the inside cabins, it’s not easy,” said British passenger David Abel in a Facebook live-stream on Thursday.
The sorry state of Hongkongers stuck aboard quarantined cruise ship in Japan
11 Feb 2020
Some passengers have praised the efforts of the crew to keep up people’s spirits, including putting together videos featuring magic tricks and dance and stretching routines.
Matthew Smith, a passenger from the United States, has racked up thousands of followers on Twitter with his regular upbeat appraisals of the ship’s food.
“Don’t believe the honeymooners who would rather be in an American hospital,” he wrote in one post last week. “You might have to drag me off the ship when the quarantine ends.”
The event on the Diamond Princess cruise would fit the description of a super spreading event. David Hui, infectious diseases expert
Why has Japan’s handling of the outbreak been so controversial?
Some medical experts have questioned the wisdom of placing the passengers and crew in quarantine in the close confines of a ship, rather than removing them to dedicated facilities on the shore.
“Ideally, the crew members and the passengers should be quarantined at holiday camps,” said David Shu-Cheong Hui, the director of the Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infections Diseases in Hong Kong. “The event on the Diamond Princess cruise would fit the description of a super spreading event.”
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Kumar Visvanathan, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Melbourne, said a cruise liner such as the Diamond Princess would be ill-equipped to prevent the spread of infections.
“It seems that though isolation in individual cabins is somewhat effective, the increasing numbers of symptomatic infections seems to suggest active infections even with the best precautions are occurring,” Visvanathan said.
“It is clear that cruise ships and their individual cabins are not made for isolation purposes and depend heavily on individual participation in the isolation procedures, including respiratory hygiene, cough etiquette and hand hygiene,” he said.
Japanese city encourages travellers in coronavirus quarantine after return from China
Visvanathan said, however, that gauging the correct response was difficult as authorities had to consider the welfare of both the general public and those on the ship.
“I think the way to look at it is there are two disparate concerns that need to be balanced,” he said. “The first is the protection of the outside community which I think the Japanese government is taking as most important, and in this case isolation on board is the most efficient way to prevent infection of the Japanese population.”
Criticism has also been levelled at authorities for not testing all of those on board from the start. After initially insisting that they did not have the resources to test everyone on board, health officials said on Thursday that they were now aiming to test 1,000 people a day.
The World Health Organisation, however, has defended Japan’s handling of the situation, saying the country was ensuring those who were ill received proper treatment, the most important consideration during such an outbreak.
A government task force has estimated a US$5 billion loss if Chinese students – angered and frustrated by the ban – cannot enrol for university
The tourism sector is also likely to be hit by restrictions on travel from the mainland as Chinese visitors spend about U$8 billion in Australia each year
Some 150,000 Chinese nationals are enrolled at Australian universities, making up around 11 per cent of the student population. Photo: Shutterstock
Abbey Shi knows first hand the anger and frustration felt by Chinese students left stranded by the Australian government’s decision to ban travel from the mainland in response to the coronavirus outbreak.
Shi, general secretary of the Students’ Representative Council at the University of Sydney, is in contact with more than 2,000 Chinese students who went home for the Lunar New Year holiday and now cannot return to Australia with just weeks to go until the start of the new academic year.
“There is a lot of confusion about the ban and anger towards the government,” said Shi, an international student from Shanghai. Currently in Australia, she is sharing information with the stranded students via WeChat.
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“The education sector in Australia is being commercialised and students are being treated like cash cows,” she said. “Universities don’t care about our affected career path, life, tenancy issues, our pets at home.”
Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Saturday announced that non-citizens – excluding permanent residents and their immediate family members – who arrived from or passed through mainland China within the previous 14 days would be denied entry to Australia as part of efforts to halt the spread of the coronavirus, which was first detected in December in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
Other countries including the United States, Singapore and the Philippines have introduced similar travel restrictions in response to the outbreak, which has sickened more than 19,000 people in at least 26 countries and territories outside mainland China and claimed 425 lives.
The travel ban, which is due to be reviewed on February 15, has upended the plans of numerous Chinese students who were due to begin or return to their studies from late February following the summer break.
Tony Yan, a mathematics undergraduate at Australian National University (ANU), said he had been left out of pocket for several weeks’ rent after being stranded in his home province of Jiangsu, but hoped he could return before classes started on February 24.
“I think the Australian government should have given a few days earlier notice,” Yan said. “I haven’t paid the tuition yet, many others haven’t as well.”
About 150,000 Chinese nationals are enrolled at Australian universities, making up around 11 per cent of the student population – a far greater proportion than in Britain and the United States, which came in at 6 per cent and 2 per cent respectively, in a 2017 report from an Australian think tank.
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ANU Vice-Chancellor Brian Schmidt on Saturday described the travel ban as “disappointing”, pledging that the university would be “generous and flexible in supporting our students” through the coming weeks.
Monash University in Melbourne has delayed the start of its academic year, while other universities are exploring options such as online tuition and intensive summer courses.
Australian universities, some of which rely on Chinese students for nearly one-quarter of their revenue, are bracing to take a major financial hit due to the ban.
Phil Honeywood, the head of a government task force initially set up to manage the reputation of Australia’s international education sector in the wake of the country’s bush fires crisis, on Sunday warned the ban could cost universities A$8 billion (US$5.34 billion) if Chinese students could not enrol for the first semester of the year.
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Education minister Dan Tehan on Monday met with peak body Universities Australia to discuss ways to minimise fallout for the sector.
“Australia will remain an attractive study destination for Chinese students, but it may take several years for Chinese student numbers to recover,” said Salvatore Babones, associate professor at the University of Sydney and adjunct scholar at the Centre for Independent Studies. “Students who are already in the middle of a degree are likely to return at the first possible opportunity, even at the cost of missing one semester, but students who have not yet started may make other plans.”
But ANU tertiary education expert Andrew Norton said there remained too many unknowns, including the number of Chinese students stranded abroad, to gauge the impact of the ban.
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“This travel ban is a short-term policy to minimise the risk of disease spreading, which would be a more serious problem than a disruption to university timetables,” he said. “One of Australia’s major [education] competitors – the US – has a similar policy, and due to travel restrictions within China and the cancelling of commercial flights to and from China Australia’s competitors are unlikely to be able to take advantage.”
Norton noted that the sector had weathered previous outbreaks such as the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), and “although there were sometimes short-term dips in numbers, none of them have changed the long-term trend towards growth”.
The ban has also sent jitters throughout the tourism industry, which relies on Chinese visitors for a quarter of international spending. Nearly 1.5 million
visited Australia in 2018-19, Australian Bureau of Statistics records show, accounting for about one in eight arrivals.
Nearly 1.5 million Chinese nationals visited Australia in 2018-19, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics records. Photo: SCMP / Alkira Reinfrank
With Chinese tourists spending about A$12 billion (US$8 billion) in Australia each year, according to Tourism Research Australia, every month the travel ban remains in place could amount to billion-dollar losses for the sector.
Tourism Tropical North Queensland on Monday said the outbreak had already cost operators for Cairns and the Great Barrier Reef 25,000 direct bookings worth A$10 million. Chief executive Mark Olsen said the situation constituted a crisis for the industry that called for “unprecedented action” by the government.
David Beirman, senior lecturer in tourism at the University of Technology Sydney, said the ban was especially damaging for the industry as it came on the heels of devastating bush fires that had kept visitors away.
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“There is no doubt that the coronavirus outbreak following on so closely to the bush fires will combine to hit international tourism to Australia very hard,” Beirman said. “Later this month the Australian Bureau of Statistics will reveal the December 2019 tourism figures, which are expected to show at best a 25 per cent downturn in international visitor arrivals compared to December 2018. January 2020 is likely to be far worse as the impact of coronavirus will certainly be a factor.”
Others have raised concerns about the impact of the travel restrictions on public attitudes toward Chinese and Chinese-Australians, warning they could stoke latent prejudices.
“This is an overreaction from the Australian government, and in many ways it feels like it is a form of racial targeting,” said Erin Chew, national convenor of the Asian Australian Alliance. “When previous viruses happened such as mad cow disease or the swine flu, Australia didn’t ban non-citizens from Britain and the US. Nor was the blame placed on the people in [those countries].
“Since the coronavirus outbreak it has been coined that this virus is the fault of Chinese people, not just in mainland China, but really all over the world.”
manufacturers and distributors of surgical face masks are currently in overdrive to meet a surge in global demand for protective gear amid the coronavirus outbreak.
With an eye on enormous profits, these suppliers have turned their focus to exports,
– causing a chronic local shortage of masks due to the relatively lower margins in the domestic market.
Indian manufacturers produce 240 million disposable masks every year, primarily for domestic use, as per the estimates of the Association of Indian Medical Device Industry.
There are no large-scale manufacturers of surgical masks in the country; the landscape is dominated by more than a dozen medium-sized companies with a production capacity of between 20,000 and 100,000 masks a day.
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The production cost of a mask is estimated to be 1 rupee (less than 2 US cents), and masks were sold for 2-4 rupees at retail outlets a month ago. As of this week, the price of a surgical mask has skyrocketed to 15 rupees.
In some regions where there is a shortfall, retail stores are reportedly demanding as much as 50 rupees. Some experts, meanwhile, say exporting masks to coronavirus-threatened Asian countries where masks are in high demand could fetch firms up to US$15 per mask.
China has so far imported over 1.2 billion masks to meet soaring demand, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
Manoj Rajawat – director of Orthosut Biomedical and Engineering Company, which distributed about 500,000 masks every month before the surge in demand – estimates that nearly 90 per cent of masks manufactured in India in recent weeks have been exported to countries such as China, Malaysia and Singapore.
“The value of the exported masks could [easily be more than 50] times what it was before the virus outbreak in China,” Rajawat said.
More than 75,000 people have been infected with the coronavirus, the vast majority of them on mainland China, and more than 2,000 patients have died with more than 16,000 staging a full recovery. This includes India’s three cases of infection, which were discovered in Kerala and have since been cured.
To allay fears of a domestic shortage, the Indian government briefly banned exports of masks and protective gear earlier this month, when the country’s first case of coronavirus infection was confirmed. A week later, however, the ban was partially lifted for two- and three-ply masks as the demand for such protective equipment kept rising overseas.
Multiple Indian ministries are closely monitoring the situation, but are reluctant to comment on specific issues beyond releasing official notifications.
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“Indian manufacturers have exponentially increased their production of masks. With the government lifting the restrictions on exports, [these firms] are also catering to international demand, somewhat focusing more on exports as it seems more beneficial,” said Vivek Tiwari, chief executive of Medikabazaar, a business-to-business online platform for medical supplies and equipment.
However, experts and observers such as Prasad Danave, president of the Retail and Dispensing Chemist Association, say Indian manufacturers are not equipped to deal with the sudden demand for such large quantities.
“I talked to one of the manufacturers and his capacity to produce disposable masks is 20,000 pieces per day. Suddenly, two purchasers approached him asking for 2 million masks and 5 million masks respectively. It is impossible to cater to such a need immediately,” Danave said.
A police officer in Kochi, India wears a face mask amid fears of the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: EPA
The N95 respirator, an industrial-purpose face mask, is in huge demand as people seek to protect themselves from the coronavirus. Alcohol-based hand sanitisers are also flying off shelves, while there are also concerns of panic buying and shopkeepers hyping up demand for their products to capitalise on the situation.
Abhay Pandey is the national president of the All Food and Drug Licence Holder Foundation, an industry organisation which represents about 7,000 pharmaceutical suppliers across India. He said vendors are distributing substandard face masks to domestic consumers due to a shortage of production time given the increased demand, as well as the lack of a credible mechanism to ensure standards.
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“There’s a micro-filter which is usually fitted between two layers in the three-ply face masks used by doctors during surgical procedures. Now, the suppliers are preparing substandard face masks without this filter for the Indian market, and for exports they’re sending the good quality ones,” Pandey said.
Mask makers in China, the world’s largest producer of face masks, are currently operating at 76 per cent capacity, National Development and Reform Commission official Cong Liang said at a press conference in Beijing on Tuesday.
This means they are producing about 15.2 million masks daily but demand is estimated to be between 50 and 60 million units, according to Chinese media reports citing mainland mask manufacturers.
More than 1,300 people are now known to have died from the virus.
The latest figures show 122 new deaths in China, bringing the toll to 1,381.
The total number of infections has jumped to 63,922 cases, according to the National Health Commission.
The World Health Organization said there was no major shift in the virus’s pattern of mortality or severity, despite a spike in cases in Hubei, the epicentre of the disease, on Tuesday.
Most of this was down to Hubei using a broader definition to diagnose people, said Mike Ryan, head of WHO’s health emergencies programme.
There was also no significant rise in cases outside China, the WHO said.
However, a cruise ship docked in Japan, the Diamond Princess, saw 44 new cases, bringing the total there to 218.
What is the situation with medical workers?
Zeng Yixin, vice minister of China’s National Health Commission, said 1,102 medical workers had been infected in Wuhan, where the outbreak began, and another 400 in other parts of Hubei province.
He said the number of infections among staff was increasing.
Media caption Medics in Wuhan resort to shaving their heads in a bid to prevent cross-infection of the coronavirus
“The duties of medical workers at the front are indeed extremely heavy; their working and resting circumstances are limited, the psychological pressures are great, and the risk of infection is high,” Mr Zeng said, quoted by Reuters.
Local authorities have struggled to provide protective equipment such as respiratory masks, goggles and protective suits in hospitals in the area.
One doctor told AFP news agency that he and 16 colleagues were showing possible symptoms of the virus.
On 7 February the plight of medical workers was highlighted by the death of Li Wenliang, a doctor at Wuhan Central Hospital who had tried to issue the first warning about the virus on 30 December.
Image copyright LI WENLIANGImage caption Li Wenliang contracted the virus while working at Wuhan Central Hospital
He had sent out a warning to fellow medics but police told him to stop “making false comments”.
A wave of anger and grief flooded Chinese social media site Weibo when news of Dr Li’s death broke.
Image copyright AFPImage caption Asian airlines have been hard hit by the virus outbreak
Economic impacts of the virus
Global airline revenue expected to fall by $4bn (£3.1bn) to $5bn this year
China’s car sales likely to fall more than 10% in first half of year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers tells Reuters
Singapore’s economy could fall into recession as a result of the outbreak, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says
Malaysian finance minister says a stimulus package will be announced for aviation, retail and tourism industries
What is happening on the Diamond Princess?
The vessel is in quarantine in Yokohama, in southern Japan. Not all the 3,700 people on board have been tested yet.
People with the virus are taken to hospitals on land to be treated, while those on board are largely confined to their cabins.
Image copyright AFPImage caption The Diamond Princess has 3,700 people on board – not all of whom have been tested
However on Thursday Japan said it would allow those aged 80 or over who have tested negative for the coronavirus to disembark.
Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said they could be allowed off the ship as early as Friday but would have to stay in accommodation provided by the government, the Japan Times reported.
Meanwhile another cruise ship – the MS Westerdam, carrying more than 2,000 people – docked in Cambodia after being turned away by ports in Japan, Taiwan, Guam, the Philippines and Thailand despite having no sick patients on board.
Media caption The Westerdam was finally able to dock in Sihanoukville, Cambodia
In other developments:
Outside China there have now been two deaths and 456 cases in 24 countries
Singapore health ministry reports nine new cases, bringing the total number there to 67
Australia has extended its ban on people coming from mainland China for another week, to 22 February
China said it would stagger the return of children to school – several provinces have closed schools until the end of February
In Vietnam, which borders China, thousands of people in villages near the capital, Hanoi, have been put under quarantine after several cases were discovered. Vietnam has now confirmed at least 16 cases
The Red Cross has called for sanctions relief for North Korea, which would allow the aid agency to transfer funds to buy equipment. Testing kits and protective clothing are urgently needed to prepare for a possible outbreak, it says
A Russian woman – who was put into a coronavirus quarantine but escaped – is resisting attempts by officials to bring her back to hospital by force. Alla Ilyina, 32, has been refusing to open the door of her St Petersburg apartment to police
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China reported on Wednesday its smallest number of coronavirus cases since January, lending weight to a prediction by its top medical adviser for the outbreak to end by April, but a global infectious diseases expert warned of the spread elsewhere.
Financial markets took heart from the outlook of the Chinese official, epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who said on Tuesday the number of new cases was falling in some provinces, and forecast the epidemic would peak this month, even as the death toll in China rose to more than 1,100 people.
World stocks, which had seen rounds of sell-offs over the virus, surged to record highs on hopes of a peak in cases. The Dow industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit new highs, and Asian shares nudged higher on Wednesday.
But the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the epidemic poses a global threat akin to terrorism and one expert coordinating its response said while the outbreak may be peaking at its epicentre in China, it was likely to spread elsewhere in the world, where it had just begun.
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“It has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of the outbreak,” the official, Dale Fisher, head of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the WHO, said in an interview in Singapore.
“In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.”
Singapore has reported 47 cases and worry about the spread is growing. Its biggest bank, DBS (DBSM.SI), evacuated 300 staff from its head office on Wednesday after a confirmed coronavirus case in the building.
Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of other countries and territories around the world, but only two people have died outside mainland China – one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday the world had to “wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one” and the first vaccine was 18 months away.
In China, total infections have hit 44,653, health officials said, including 2,015 new confirmed cases on Tuesday. That was the lowest daily rise in new cases since Jan. 30.
The number of deaths on the mainland rose by 97 to 1,113 by the end of Tuesday.
But doubts have been aired on social media about how reliable the figures are, after the government last week amended guidelines on the classification of cases.
‘STAY HOPEFUL’
The biggest cluster of cases outside China is aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s port of Yokohama, with about 3,700 people on board. Japanese officials on Wednesday said 39 more people had tested positive for the virus, taking the total to 175.
One of the new cases was a quarantine officer.
Thailand said it was barring passengers from another cruise ship, MS Westerdam, from disembarking, the latest country to turn it away amid fears of the coronavirus, despite no confirmed infections on board.
“We try to stay hopeful,” American passenger Angela Jones told Reuters in a video recording. “But each day, that becomes a little bit more difficult, when country after country rejects us.”
Echoing the comparison with the fight against terrorism, China’s state news agency Xinhua said late on Tuesday the epidemic was a “battle that has no gunpowder smoke but must be won”.
The epidemic was a big test of China’s governance and capabilities and some officials were still “dropping the ball” in places where it was most severe, it said, adding: “This is a wake-up call.”
The government of Hubei, the central province at the outbreak’s epicentre, dismissed the provincial health commission’s Communist Party boss, state media said on Tuesday, amid mounting public anger over the crisis.
China’s censors had allowed criticism of local officials but have begun cracking down on reporting of the outbreak, issuing reprimands to tech firms that gave free rein to online speech, Chinese journalists said.
The pathogen has been named COVID-19 – CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease and 19 for the year it emerged. It is suspected to have come from a market that illegally traded wildlife in Hubei’s capital of Wuhan in December.
The city of 11 million people remains under virtual lockdown as part of China’s unprecedented measures to seal infected regions and limit transmission routes.
Travel restrictions that have paralysed the world’s second-biggest economy have left Wuhan and other Chinese cities resembling ghost towns.
Even if the epidemic ends soon, it has taken a toll of China’s economy, with companies laying off workers and needing loans running into billions of dollars to stay afloat. Supply chains for makers of items from cars to smartphones have broken down.
ANZ Bank said China’s first-quarter growth would probably slow to 3.2% to 4.0%, down from a projection of 5.0%.
The likely slowdown in China could shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off both euro zone and British growth this year, credit rating agency S&P Global estimated.
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