Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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Embassy in France removes ‘false image’ on Twitter in latest online controversy amid accusations of spreading disinformation
After months of aggressive anti-US posts by Chinese diplomats Beijing is cracking down on ‘smear campaigns’ at home
Beijing’s ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy has coincided with a rise of nationalist content on Chinese social media. Photo: Reuters
Beijing is battling allegations that it is running a disinformation campaign on social media, as robust posts by its diplomats in Western countries promoting nationalist sentiment have escalated into a spat between China and other countries, especially the United States.
In the latest in a series of online controversies, the Chinese embassy in France claimed its official Twitter account had been hacked after it featured a cartoon depicting the US as Death, knocking on a door marked Hong Kong after leaving a trail of blood outside doors marked Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela. The inclusion in the image of a Star of David on the scythe also prompted accusations of anti-Semitism.
Top China diplomats call for ‘Wolf Warrior’ army in foreign relations
25 May 2020
“Someone posted a false image on our official Twitter account by posting a cartoon entitled ‘Who is Next?’. The embassy would like to condemn it and always abides by the principles of truthfulness, objectivity and rationality of information,” it said on Monday.
The rise of China’s aggressive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy has been regarded by analysts as primarily aimed at building support for the government at home but the latest incident is seen as an attempt by Beijing to take back control of the nationalist narrative it has unleashed.
Florian Schneider, director of the Leiden Asia Centre in the Netherlands, said the removal of the embassy’s tweet reflected a constant concern in Beijing about the range of people – including ordinary citizens – who were involved in spreading nationalistic material online.
“The state insists that its nationalism is ‘rational’, meaning it is meant to inspire domestic unity through patriotism but without impacting national interests or endangering social stability,” he said.
“This makes nationalism a mixed blessing for the authorities … if nationalist stories demonise the US or Japan or some other potential enemy, then any Chinese leader dealing diplomatically with those perceived enemies ends up looking weak.
“Trying to guide nationalist sentiment in ways that further the leadership’s interests is a difficult balancing act and I suspect this is partly the reason why the authorities are currently trying to clamp down on unauthorised, nationalist conspiracy theories.”
Too soon: Chinese advisers tell ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomats to tone it down
The report came after months of social media posts – including by Chinese diplomats – defending China against accusations it had mishandled the coronavirus pandemic and attacking the US and other perceived enemies.
In March, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian promoted a conspiracy theory on Twitter suggesting the virus had originated in the US and was brought to China by the US Army. His comments were later downplayed, with China’s ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai saying questions about the origin of the virus should be answered by scientists.
Schneider said this showed that the state-backed nationalistic propaganda online was at risk of backfiring diplomatically.
“The authorities have to constantly worry that they might lose control of the nationalist narrative they unleashed, especially considering how many people produce content on the internet, how fast ideas spread, and how strongly commercial rationales drive misinformation online,” he said.
Last month, a series of widely shared social media articles about people in different countries “yearning to be part of China” resulted in a diplomatic backlash against Beijing. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador in April to lodge a formal protest against the article.
Following the incident, the Cyberspace Administration of China, the country’s internet regulator which manages the “firewall” and censors material online, announced a two-month long “internet cleansing” to clear privately owned accounts which engage in “smear campaigns”.
The article had at least 100,000 readers, with 753 people donating money to support the account. According to Xigua Data, a firm that monitors traffic on Chinese social media, the account garnered more than 1.7 million page views for 17 articles in April.
According to a statement from WeChat, the account was closed for fabricating facts, stoking xenophobia and misleading the public.
A journalism professor at the University of Hong Kong said this case differed from the Chinese embassy’s tweet, despite both featuring anti-US sentiment.
Masato Kajimoto, who leads research on news literacy and the misinformation ecosystem, said the closure of the WeChat account seemed to be more about Chinese authorities feeling the need to regulate producers of media content whose motivations were often financial rather than political.
“I would think the government doesn’t like some random misinformation going wild and popular, which affects the overall storylines they would like to push, disseminate and control,” he said.
One way for China to respond to the situation was to fact-check social media and to position itself as a protector facts and defender of the integrity of public information, he said.
“In the age of social media, both fake news and fact-checking are being weaponised by people who try to influence or manipulate the narrative in one way or another,” Kajimoto said.
“Not only China but also many other authoritarian states in Asia are now fact-checking social media. Governments in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries all do that.
“Such initiatives benefit them because they can decide what is true and what is not.”
UNITED NATIONS, March 6 (Xinhua) — China’s UN envoy on Friday said China welcomes the Russia-Turkey agreement on a ceasefire for Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib.
In a press encounter after a close-door Security Council meeting on Syria, China’s Permanent Representative to the UN Zhang Jun said “for China, we welcome the agreement signed by the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey, and we welcome the diplomatic efforts along this direction.”
He said the signing of the agreement is conducive to finding “what we have always longed … a comprehensive solution to the issue in Syria.”
It’s a step forward in promoting a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process, facilitated by the UN, he said, expressing the hope that the agreement will be fully implemented.
Zhang stressed that in the process of implementation, Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence should be fully respected.
He said China hopes the international community will continue to commit to the fight against terrorism in the process. “We do hope that we will see more encouraging progress.”
The Chinese envoy voiced support for the humanitarian effort made by the UN, pledging that China will do whatever it can to provide humanitarian aid. “We also hope that the comprehensive humanitarian situation in Syria will be taken care of by the international community.”
He also urged parties concerned to avoid any attack on the civilians in Idlib and in Syria as a whole.
Russia and Turkey agreed Thursday on a ceasefire in the de-escalation zone in Idlib, a development that could ease escalating conflicts and facilitate a peace process in the war-torn country.
The ceasefire became effective from 00:01 a.m. on Friday local time. Russia and Turkey also agreed to create a safety corridor 6 km to the north and 6 km to the south from the strategic M4 highway, which connects Aleppo in northern Syria with Latakia in the northwest.
Also in the press encounter, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vassily Nebenzia said the ceasefire does not “exempt” operations targeting terrorists in the area, and that he hopes the sporadic fighting after the ceasefire took effect will be put out.
Britain and Germany’s UN ambassadors also expressed hope that the fresh ceasefire will last.
In 2018, the two countries agreed on a deal in the southern Russian city of Sochi, which created a “de-escalation” zone in Idlib and allowed for the deployment of 12 Turkish observation posts. However, the “de-escalation” zone has been repeatedly violated.
More than 30 Turkish soldiers were killed last month around the area during an operation of the Syrian government, which Russia backs. The operation was attempting to regain control of the final rebel stronghold in the country after nearly nine years of war.
In response, Turkey targeted Syrian positions with aircraft, drones and artillery, raising fears of a direct military confrontation between Russia and Turkey.
Since March 2011, Syria has been in the throes of a conflict that has forced more than half of all Syrians to leave their homes.
According to The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, an estimated 5 million Syrians have fled the country, 6 million others are internally displaced, over 13 million people need assistance and an untold number of men, women and children are suffering greatly.
Forty countries will be able to diagnose the disease, and the Africa CDC is training health workers
Until two weeks ago, there were only two laboratories on the continent that could test for the virus, in Senegal and South Africa
A scientist researches the coronavirus at the Pasteur Institute in Dakar, Senegal, which until two weeks ago was one of just two labs in Africa that could test for the disease. Photo: AFP
Forty countries in Africa will be able to test for the deadly new coronavirus
by the end of the week, the WHO said, after Egypt confirmed the first case on the continent last week.
The World Health Organisation said many of those nations had been sending samples elsewhere for testing and waiting several days for results.
“Now they can do it themselves, within 24 to 48 hours,” WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a media briefing on Tuesday.
Until about two weeks ago, there were only two laboratories in the continent of 54 countries – in Senegal and South Africa – with the reagents needed to test for the virus. That meant dozens of nations that had quarantined suspected patients were sending samples to South Africa or Senegal to be tested.
The WHO earlier this week sent reagent kits for coronavirus diagnosis to more than 20 countries in Africa to step up diagnosis of the virus, which causes a disease now known as Covid-19. The global health body said more countries in Africa were expected to receive testing kits this week.
In addition, the WHO last week sent testing kits to Cameroon, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia.
Coronavirus: WHO urges caution over study showing ‘decline’ in new Covid-19 cases in China
Tedros said some countries in Africa, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, were using systems developed to test for the deadly Ebola virus to now test for the coronavirus.
“This is a great example of how investing in health systems can pay dividends for health security,” Tedros said.
Several countries, including Ethiopia and South Sudan, were prioritising surveillance and monitoring at ports of entry, he said. “We’re also working with partners in some of the most fragile contexts, from Syria to the Central African Republic, to prepare countries for the arrival of the virus,” he said.
The WHO and Egyptian health officials on Friday confirmed that a 33-year-old foreigner had tested positive for the coronavirus. Egypt’s health ministry said the patient had tested positive for the virus without any symptoms, raising concern that there could be undetected cases on the continent, as countries scramble to equip labs to test for the disease.
The asymptomatic patient in Egypt was identified through contact screening of an index case who travelled to Cairo on a business trip from January 21 to February 4 and tested positive for the virus on February 11 in China, the WHO regional office said.
The new virus strain has killed more than 2,000 people and infected over 74,000 since the outbreak began in central China in December. It has spread to more than 20 countries.
Screening measures have been stepped up across Africa, including quarantining all passengers arriving from Chinese cities, amid fears that poorer countries with weaker health systems may struggle to cope if the virus spreads on the continent. More than a dozen countries still do not have the capacity to test for the pneumonia-like illness.
There are concerns that Africa’s close links with China put it at high risk for the spread of the new virus. Africa has become home to millions of Chinese since Beijing started looking to the continent for raw materials for its industries and markets for its products. China has been Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009, after it overtook the United States, with two-way trade standing at US$108 billion last year, according to China’s commerce ministry.
Africa CDC director John Nkengasong said it had been “investing in preparedness and response to the disease”. Photo: Reuters
John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), said it was working closely with the WHO and other partners to ensure that Egypt had the diagnostic tools it needed, and that the right actions were taken to contain the spread of the virus.
“We anticipated that the Covid-19 outbreak would inevitably impact Africa. That is why the Africa CDC has been working actively with African Union member states and partners in the past four weeks and investing in preparedness and response to the disease,” he said.
“[Last week in Dakar, Senegal] we conducted training and supplied test kits to 16 African laboratories, including from Egypt. Egypt also received additional test kits from the WHO,” Nkengasong said.
The Africa CDC would train 40 health workers from nine countries, including Egypt, in Nairobi this week, he said, on “enhancing detection and investigation of Covid-19 at points of entry”.
The Chinese medical workers on the front line of the coronavirus fight in Wuhan
On Monday, Ethiopia, home to one of the continent’s busiest airports, said it had received equipment and reagents for virus detection and control. “We are working hard day and night with the government to improve the critical measures needed to ensure that the country is ready to effectively respond to an outbreak of Covid-19,” said Boureima Hama Sambo, the WHO representative in Ethiopia.
despite pressure for it to suspend services to the country. Many countries on the continent have restricted travel to and from mainland China, while six out of eight African airlines with Chinese routes have halted flights until the virus is contained, including EgyptAir.
Egypt has suspended all flights to and from the mainland until the end of the month and has evacuated more than 300 Egyptians from Wuhan, the epicentre of the epidemic.
Beijing joins global condemnation of attack launched by Ankara on Kurdish fighters after US President Donald Trump decided to pull out troops
Foreign ministry spokesman says issue should be resolved with ‘political solutions’ and the operation may result in a revival of Islamic State
Turkey launched the attack on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria last week. Photo: Xinhua
China has urged Turkey to stop the military offensive it began in northeastern Syria last week and “return to the right track”.
Beijing is the latest to join global condemnation of the cross-border attack launched by Ankara on Kurdish fighters last Wednesday following US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from the region.
Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang on Tuesday called for a ceasefire.
“The Chinese side has always opposed the use of force in international relations and has advocated for adherence to the Charter of the United Nations, and to resolve problems through political and diplomatic channels,” Geng said during a regular press briefing, when asked about Beijing’s position on the situation.
“Sovereignty, independence, unification and territorial integrity should be respected and protected,” he said. “We urge Turkey to halt military action and to return to the right track, resolving the issue with political solutions.”
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang called on Turkey to “work with the international community in fighting against terrorism”. Photo: AP
Geng also said the “anti-terrorism situation in Syria is still severe”, and the military operation could result in a comeback by Islamic State.
“We urge Turkey to take responsibility and work with the international community in fighting against terrorism,” he said.
Explained: why are Syria’s Kurds accusing the US of betrayal?
Trump’s move has drawn sharp criticism from around the world. Critics say he has abandoned the allies that helped fight against Isis, and that withdrawing troops could pave the way for a resurgence of the jihadist group whose violent takeover of Syrian and Iraqi land five years ago was the reason US forces went in.
The US president said about 1,000 US troops who had been partnering with local Kurdish fighters to battle Islamic State in northern Syria were leaving the country. He said they would remain in the Middle East to “monitor the situation” and to prevent a revival of Isis – a goal that even Trump’s allies say has become much more difficult as a result of the US pull-out.
Turkey says the offensive aims to remove the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces from the border area and create what it calls a “safe zone” to relocate 1 million Syrian refugees.
on Turkey, halted bilateral trade negotiations and called for an immediate ceasefire.
Vice-President Mike Pence also said Trump was sending him to the Middle East because the president was concerned about instability in the region.
Beijing has long worried that conflict in the region could spill over to Chinese soil after thousands of Uygurs – the Turkic-speaking Muslim minority from far western China – travelled to Syria to train and fight as jihadists.
Settlements along the route linking Europe and Asia thrived by providing accommodation and services for countless traders
Formally established during the Han dynasty, it was a 19th-century German geographer who coined the term Silk Road
The ruins of a fortified gatehouse and customs post at Yunmenguan Pass, in China’s Gansu province. Photo: Alamy
We have a German geographer, cartographer and explorer to thank for the name of the world’s most famous network of transcontinental trade routes.
Formally established during the Han dynasty, in the first and second centuries BC, it wasn’t until 1877 that Ferdinand von Richthofen coined the term Silk Road (historians increasingly favour the collective term Silk Routes).
The movement of merchandise between China and Europe had been taking place long before the Han arrived on the scene but it was they who employed troops to keep the roads safe from marauding nomads.
Commerce flourished and goods as varied as carpets and camels, glassware and gold, spices and slaves were traded; as were horses, weapons and armour.
Merchants also moved medicines but they were no match for the bubonic plague, which worked its way west along the Silk Road before devastating huge swathes of 14th century Europe.
What follows are some of the countless kingdoms, territories, (modern-day) nations and cities that grew rich on the proceeds of trade, taxes and tolls.
China
A watchtower made of rammed earth at Dunhuang, a desert outpost at the crossroads of two major Silk Road routes in China’s northwestern Gansu province. Photo: Alamy
Marco Polo worked in the Mongol capital, Khanbaliq (today’s Beijing), and was struck by the level of mercantile activity.
The Venetian gap-year pioneer wrote, “Every day more than a thousand carts loaded with silk enter the city, for a great deal of cloth of gold and silk is woven here.”
Light, easy to transport items such as paper and tea provided Silk Road traders with rich pickings, but it was China’s monopoly on the luxurious shimmering fabric that guaranteed huge profits.
So much so that sneaking silk worms out of the empire was punishable by death.
The desert outpost of Dunhuang found itself at the crossroads of two major Silk Road trade arteries, one leading west through the Pamir Mountains to Central Asia and another south to India.
Built into the Great Wall at nearby Yunmenguan are the ruins of a fortified gatehouse and customs post, which controlled the movement of Silk Road caravans.
Also near Dunhuang, the Mogao Caves contain one of the richest collections of Buddhist art treasures anywhere in the world, a legacy of the route to and from the subcontinent.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s mountainous terrain was an inescapable part of the Silk Road, until maritime technologies would become the area’s undoing. Photo: Shutterstock
For merchants and middlemen hauling goods through Central Asia, there was no way of bypassing the mountainous lands we know today as Afghanistan.
Evidence of trade can be traced back to long before the Silk Road – locally mined lapis lazuli stones somehow found their way to ancient Egypt, and into Tutankhamun’s funeral mask, created in 1323BC.
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Besides mercantile exchange, the caravan routes were responsible for the sharing of ideas and Afghanistan was a major beneficiary. Art, philosophy, language, science, food, architecture and technology were all exchanged, along with commercial goods.
In fact, maritime technology would eventually be the area’s undoing. By the 15th century, it had become cheaper and more convenient to transport cargo by sea – a far from ideal development for a landlocked region.
Iran
The Ganjali Khan Complex, in Iran. Photo: Shutterstock
Thanks to the Silk Road and the routes that preceded it, the northern Mesopotamian region (present-day Iran) became China’s closest trading partner. Traders rarely journeyed the entire length of the trail, however.
Merchandise was passed along by middlemen who each travelled part of the way and overnighted in caravanserai, fortified inns that provided accommodation, storerooms for goods and space for pack animals.
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With so many wheeler-dealers gathering in one place, the hostelries developed into ad hoc marketplaces.
Marco Polo writes of the Persian kingdom of Kerman, where craftsmen made saddles, bridles, spurs and “arms of every kind”.
Today, in the centre of Kerman, the former caravanserai building forms part of the Ganjali Khan Complex, which incorporates a bazaar, bathhouse and mosque.
Uzbekistan
A fort in Khiva, Uzbekistan. Photo: Alamy
The double-landlocked country boasts some of the Silk Road’s most fabled destinations. Forts, such as the one still standing at Khiva, were built to protect traders from bandits; in fact, the city is so well-preserved, it is known as the Museum under the Sky.
The name Samarkand is also deeply entangled with the history of the Silk Road.
The earliest evidence of silk being used outside China can be traced to Bactria, now part of modern Uzbekistan, where four graves from around 1500BC-1200BC contained skeletons wrapped in garments made from the fabric.
Three thousand years later, silk weaving and the production and trade of textiles remain one of Samarkand’s major industries.
Georgia
A street in old town of Tbilisi, Georgia. Photo: Alamy
Security issues in Persia led to the opening up of another branch of the legendary trade route and the first caravan loaded with silk made its way across Georgia in AD568.
Marco Polo referred to the weaving of raw silk in “a very large and fine city called Tbilisi”.
Today, the capital has shaken off the Soviet shackles and is on the cusp of going viral.
Travellers lap up the city’s monasteries, walled fortresses and 1,000-year-old churches before heading up the Georgian Military Highway to stay in villages nestling in the soaring Caucasus Mountains.
Public minibuses known as marshrutka labour into the foothills and although the vehicles can get cramped and uncomfortable, they beat travelling by camel.
Jordan
Petra, in Jordan. Photo: Alamy
The location of the Nabataean capital, Petra, wasn’t chosen by chance.
Savvy nomadic herders realised the site would make the perfect pit-stop at the confluence of several caravan trails, including a route to the north through Palmyra (in modern-day Syria), the Arabian peninsula to the south and Mediterranean ports to the west.
Huge payments in the form of taxes and protection money were collected – no wonder the most magnificent of the sandstone city’s hand-carved buildings is called the Treasury.
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Trade enriched Venice beyond measure, helping shape the Adriatic entrepot into the floating marvel we see today.
Besides the well-documented flow of goods heading west, consignments of cotton, ivory, animal furs, grapevines and other goods passed through the strategically sited port on their way east.
Ironically, for a city built on trade and taxes, the biggest problem Venice faces today is visitors who don’t contribute enough to the local economy.
A lack of spending by millions of day-tripping tourists and cruise passengers who aren’t liable for nightly hotel taxes has prompted authorities to introduce a citywide access fee from January 2020.
Two thousand years ago, tariffs and tolls helped Venice develop and prosper. Now they’re needed to prevent its demise.
President Xi Jinping will meet Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin next month and address economic summit in St Petersburg
Diplomatic flurry will also include regional security forums in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
Xi Jinping has met Vladimir Putin more times than any other foreign leader since he took power in 2013. Photo: AFP
Beijing is stepping up efforts to seek support from regional and global players such as Russia and Central Asian nations as its geostrategic rivalry with Washington heats up.
President Xi Jinping is expected to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin next month, when he will also address the St Petersburg International Economic Summit,
The Chinese president will also visit the Kyrgyzstan capital Bishkek for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in June, as well as another regional security forum in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
Meanwhile, Vice-PresidentWang Qishan is visiting Pakistan before he heads to the Netherlands and Germany, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan meets Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan in Islamabad on Sunday. Photo: AFP
The latest flurry of diplomatic activity comes as competition between China and the US intensifies on several fronts including trade and technology, the South China Sea and the Arctic, where Beijing’s partnership with Moscow –
It will be Xi’s second time at the St Petersburg forum, and observers expect the Chinese leader will reaffirm Beijing’s commitment to multilateralism and promote the nation as a champion of openness and cooperation.
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It will also be his second meeting with Putin in two months, after talks on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in late April, when the Russian president
for the controversial China-led infrastructure and investment initiative.
With China and Russia edging closer, the latest meeting is likely to see efforts to coordinate their strategies on a range of issues – including Venezuela, North Korea, nuclear weapons and arms control, according to observers. Xi has met Putin more times than any other foreign leader since he took power in 2013.
“This time it is very likely that the latest anti-China moves by the US, such as new tariffs and the Huawei ban, will feature prominently in their conversations,” said Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok.
Lukin said Russia’s stagnating economy and sanctions imposed by the West limited its role as a substitute for the foreign markets and technologies China could lose access to because of the US crusade. But he said Putin would “provide political and moral support to Xi”.
“That is also significant as Russia has been withstanding intense US-led sanctions pressure for more than five years already,” Lukin said, referring to sanctions imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Xi and Putin are also expected to talk about Venezuela, where US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido is attempting to oust socialist President Nicolas Maduro, who has the support of China and Russia.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has the backing of China and Russia. Photo: AP
“Moscow and Beijing are not able to seriously hurt Washington by raising tariffs or denying access to high technology. However, there are plenty of areas where coordinated Sino-Russian policies can damage US interests in the short term or in the long run,” Lukin said. “For example, Moscow and Beijing could intensify their joint support for the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro, frustrating Washington’s efforts to dislodge him.”
China and Russia would also be seeking to boost economic ties. Bilateral trade, dominated by Chinese imports of gas and oil, reached US$108 billion last year – falling far short of the target set in 2011 by Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, of US$200 billion by 2020.
China and Russia to forge stronger Eurasian economic ties
Li Lifan, an associate research professor at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said bilateral trade was a sticking point. “This is one of the potential hindrances in China-Russia relations and Beijing is hoping to [address this] … in the face of a possible global economic slowdown,” Li said.
Given the escalating trade war with Washington, he said China would seek to diversify its investments and markets to other parts of the world, particularly Russia and Europe.
“China will step up its investment cooperation with Europe and Russia and focus more on multilateral investment,” Li said.
But Beijing was not expected to do anything to worsen tensions with Washington.
“China is currently taking a very cautious approach towards the US, trying to avoid heating up the confrontation and further aggravation of the situation,” said Danil Bochkov, a contributing author with the Russian International Affairs Council. “For China it is important to demonstrate that it has a reliable friend – Russia – but that should not be done in an openly provocative manner.”
Stephen Blank, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, said Beijing and Moscow would also seek to contain US influence “as far as possible” from Central Asia, where China has increased its engagement through infrastructure building under the “Belt and Road Initiative”.
Leaders from the region will gather in Bishkek next month for the SCO summit, a security bloc set up in 2001 that now comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan. Those members account for about 23 per cent of the world’s land mass, 45 per cent of its population, and 25 per cent of global GDP.
Newly re-elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi could meet the Chinese president for talks in Bishkek next month. Photo: EPA-EFE
There is growing speculation that Xi will meet newly re-elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of that summit.
Independent analyst and author Namrata Goswami said India would be seeking a commitment to a WTO-led and rules-based multilateral trading system during the SCO talks.
“This is interesting and significant given the current US tendencies under President Donald Trump focused on ‘America first’ and the US-China trade war,” Goswami said.
Counterterrorism will again be a top priority at the SCO summit, amid concerns among member states about the rising number of Islamic State fighters returning from Syria and Iraq. Chinese scholars estimated last year that around 30,000 jihadists who had fought in Syria had gone back to their home countries, including China.
Alexander Bortnikov, chief of the main Russian intelligence agency FSB, said earlier that 5,000 fighters from a group affiliated with Isis had gathered in areas bordering former Soviet states in Central Asia, saying most of them had fought alongside Isis in Syria.
War-torn Afghanistan, which shares a border with four SCO member states – China, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – is also likely to be high on the agenda at the Bishkek summit.
“With the Trump administration drafting plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, the SCO will assess the security situation there and decide whether to provide training for Afghan troops,” Li said.
Eva Seiwert, a doctoral candidate at the Free University of Berlin, expected the security bloc would also discuss Iran after the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and ordered new sanctions against the country.
Iran, which has observer status with the SCO, was blocked from becoming a full member in 2008 because it was subject to UN sanctions at the time. But its membership application could again be up for discussion.
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“The Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 made it easy for China and Russia to present themselves as the proponents of peaceful settlement of conflicts,” Seiwert said. “Discussing the possibility of admitting Iran as a full member state would help the SCO members demonstrate their support of multilateral and peaceful cooperation.
“This would be a strong signal to the US and enhance the SCO’s standing in the international community,” she said.
Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov (right) meets Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bishkek on Tuesday last week. Photo: Xinhua
As well as security, Xi’s visit to Central Asia is also likely to focus on economic ties. Meeting Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov in Bishkek last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would continue to “provide support and help national development and construction in Kyrgyzstan”.
Li said China may increase investment in the Central Asian region, especially in greenfield projects.
“China will continue to buy agriculture products from Central Asia, such as cherries from Uzbekistan, and build hydropower projects to meet local energy demand,” Li said. “Investment in solar and wind energy projects is also expected to increase too.”
China is getting two regimental units, which amounts to at least 128 missiles.
Image copyrightAFPImage captionThe S-400 missile system is deployed at Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria
The S-400 “Triumf” is one of the most sophisticated surface-to-air missile systems in the world. It has a range of 400km (248 miles) and one S-400 integrated system can shoot down up to 80 targets simultaneously.
Russia says it can hit aerial targets ranging from low-flying drones to aircraft flying at various altitudes and long-range missiles.
The US sanctions are aimed at putting pressure on the Russian government over its annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
In October, India signed a $5bn (£3.9bn) deal to buy five S-400 regimental units. That amounts to at least 320 missiles. Each S-400 launch vehicle – a heavy lorry – carries four missiles.
Russia has deployed S-400s to protect its military airbase at Hmeimim in Syria.
Turkey, a Nato member, is buying S-400s despite US warnings. The US wants to sell Patriot missiles, made by Raytheon Co, to Turkey instead. The US argues that S-400s are incompatible with Nato systems.
“We made the S-400 deal with Russia, so it’s out of the question for us to turn back. That’s done,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
Neither Turkey nor India are yet under US sanctions over the purchases.
How the S-400 system works
Long-range surveillance radar tracks objects and relays information to command vehicle, which assesses potential targets
Target is identified and command vehicle orders missile launch
Launch data are sent to the best placed launch vehicle and it releases surface-to-air missiles
Engagement radar helps guide missiles towards target.
US President Donald Trump’s surprise decision to withdraw US forces from Syria will leave China’s intended investment into the country’s reconstruction in uncertainty, analysts said, adding that the move might also suggest a stronger strategic focus by Washington on the Indo-Pacific region to put pressure on Beijing.
Experts said it remains unclear when the troop withdrawals will be completed but the departure is likely to prolong instability in Syria and delay its reconstruction.
“Trump is restarting the game and all parties there will make their own moves. China is watching closely how changes in the Middle East would affect its own interests there,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
China has kept its distance from the Syria conflict but is interested in promoting its economic presence in the war-torn country under the “Belt and Road Initiative”, according to Wang Jian, a Middle East expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
“Chinese companies and investment cannot hurry now,” he said, adding that security would be a major concern with the withdrawal of US troops.
“If the security situation worsens, it will affect China’s intended economic cooperation in the region. Security risks may also spill over to other countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE where China has extensive economic interests.
Although China is the world’s biggest oil importing country and heavily relies on energy imports from the Middle East, it does not have a military presence in the region.
Chinese businesses used to invest in and trade with Syria before the civil war broke out in 2011. Bilateral trade between China and Syria amounted to US$2.4 billion that year. Almost all Chinese companies have since pulled out or suspended operations there.
But should the situation stabilise, Chinese companies will return and Beijing is keenly interested in reconstruction. Analysts said the belt and road plan emphasises trade and infrastructure construction, and that both will be urgently needed when reconstruction begins. According to United Nations estimates, the seven-year military conflict has wiped out nearly US$400 billion worth of assets in Syria.
Analysts said also that Chinese businesses were likely to be welcome in a post-war Syria as they have been in Iraq. In a recent interview with Xinhua, Wafiqa Hosni, Syria’s state minister for investment affairs, said the Assad government considered China, which has taken a stance similar to that of Russia at the UN Security Council concerning Syrian issues, a “friendly country”.
China, meanwhile, has already taken steps to establish an early foothold in the Syrian market. Last year, it convened its first “Syria Reconstruction Projects Fair” in Beijing, putting forward a US$2 billion plan to build an industrial estate in the country that could accommodate as many as 150 companies.
in September, China sent a delegation of 200 companies to the 60th Damascus International Fair, most of which are state-owned enterprises looking to tap in Syria and build a working relationship in its reconstruction process.
John Lee, a professor at the University of Sydney in Australia and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said the troop withdrawal may also signal a rethinking of Washington’s Indo-Pacific policies.
“It represents a shift in strategic thinking [in the US] that the Middle East is becoming less important to America as more attention is being directed towards the Indo-Pacific,” he said.
“The US already views China as its primary and long-term challenge. This is brought out in the National Security Strategy, National Defence Strategy and in the speech by Vice-President Mike Pence.”
The US military’s Pacific Command has been renamed Indo-Pacific Command, and plans to upgrade equipment and weapons systems and enhance exercises with its regional allies. More specifically, it has increased patrols in the South China Sea to challenge China’s territorial claims.
In the past two years, the US navy has carried out eight freedom of navigation operations near the China’s controlled islands in the South China Sea.
However, Wu from Fudan University believes the use of US military forces in the Indo-Pacific will be limited. Their purpose, he said, was mainly to maintain a presence and profile of the US in the region for its allies and to pressure China.
“It’s unlikely that the US will take China’s South China Sea islands by force or force China to give up its ‘Maritime Silk Road’ plans,” he said, referring to Beijing’s strategy to boost infrastructure connectivity throughout Southeast Asia, Oceania and East African countries.
“I am not convinced the US will actually use military means in this region.”
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