Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Defence spending could show the effect of economic headwinds but is still expected to increase
PLA’s modernisation and strategic priorities demand spending is maintained even after GDP’s first contraction since records began, observers say
China has made modernising its military and expanding its weaponry a priority. Photo: Xinhua
China’s upcoming defence budget will be only slightly hit by the economic downturn that followed the coronavirus outbreak, and a modest increase is still expected as it continues to develop its military capability, analysts said.
The government’s military budget is expected to be revealed, as is the norm, at this year’s session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislative body. Delayed by over two months because of the pandemic, it will finally be convened on May 22.
Last year the defence expenditure announced at the NPC session was
China has said its military expenditure has always been kept below 2 per cent of its GDP over the past 30 years, although its official figures have long been described by Western observers as opaque, with significant omissions of important items.
The South China Sea dispute explained
In a report earlier this week, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China’s actual military spending in 2019 was US$261 billion, the world’s second highest, after the United States’ US$732 billion.
John Lee, adjunct professor at the University of Sydney and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, estimated that this year the Chinese defence budget would remain roughly the same or increase modestly, in line with growth levels of recent years.
“In the current environment, Beijing is keen to emphasise that China has recovered substantially from Covid-19 and that its power trajectory is unaffected by recent events,” Lee said. “At the same time, it would be aware of the anger towards the Communist Party for allowing the virus to become a pandemic.
“Regardless of what the reality might be, I would be surprised if there were a dramatic increase or a significant cut.”
First made-in-China aircraft carrier, the Shandong, enters service
China’s GDP suffered a 6.8 per cent decline in the first quarter, the first contraction since quarterly records began in 1992, after an extensive shutdown while it contained its coronavirus outbreak. However, the official increases in the military budget have since 2011 always exceeded overall GDP growth.
The Chinese government may focus more on job creation, social welfare and poverty alleviation, but not at the expense of military investment, according to Collin Koh, research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“I tend to think it will be more or less the same,” Koh said. “To reduce [the budget] may send the wrong signal to would-be adversaries, both domestic and external: that Beijing has lost the will to keep up its military modernisation to assert core national interests.”
PLA flexes military muscle near Taiwan ‘in show of Covid-19 control’
15 Apr 2020
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began a massive – and costly – reform in 2015, with a personnel reshuffle, change in structure, upgraded equipment and enhanced training to better resemble battle scenarios. That was supposed to be complete this year.
Given the deteriorating relationship with the United States and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, the PLA faces challenges requiring a steady increase in investment, according to Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping.
Taiwan shows off its military power after presidential election
Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong predicted there would still be about 6-7 per cent growth in the budget “no matter what”.
“The PLA played an important role in the fight against the contagion, so a decrease in spending would not be accepted,” Wong said.
That role included the deployment of more than 4,000 military medics to help treat Covid-19 patients, and helping to transport medical supplies.
Wong said it would be a crucial year for the PLA in completing its preparation for potential military action against Taiwan, which would be so strategically important that “[President] Xi Jinping himself would never allow it to be affected by a shortage of funding”.
China’s military draws on 6G dream to modernise its fighting forces
18 Apr 2020
But a slight increase in budget would be sufficient to meet defence needs and maintain a deterrence against potential threats, including preventing self-ruled Taiwan taking the opportunity to declare independence, naval expert Li Jie said.
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Its relationship with Taipei has been strained, and dialogue halted, since Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected the island’s president in 2016. Tsai was re-elected for a second term in January.
Li estimated that the budget would probably be kept at the same level or show a “slight” increase from last year.
“It would feed the ‘China threat’ theory and raise international concerns if the Chinese government expands military spending too much,” he said.
The country’s second aircraft carrier, the Shandong, officially entered service this month, but bottlenecks in training could hamper the navy’s effectiveness
Plans to build and launch more modern warships mean the need for fully trained pilots will only grow
A pilot based on the Liaoning is seen during a training exercise. China is facing a shortage of trained naval aviators. Photo: Handout
A shortage of naval pilots is holding back Beijing’s ambitions to develop a truly combat-ready fleet, military analysts have said.
China officially commissioned its second aircraft carrier the Shandong last week, which means it will need at least 70 pilots, along with more supporting flight officers.
However, plans to further expand its fleet to five or six carriers – as well as the more advanced technology that will be used on these vessels – mean the need to train more pilots will become more urgent in the future.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has initiated a sweeping modernisation drive across all branches of the People’s Liberation Army and said “the need to build up a strong navy has never been more pressing”.
The Shandong, China’s second carrier, officially entered service earlier this month. Photo: Handout
But Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said there was a bottleneck in the recruitment and training of naval pilots.
“The implications of carrier-borne aviation are still relatively unfamiliar to the PLA, especially when there’s an urge to scale up training tempo and recruitment in order to fulfil the top directives of building a viable carrier programme,” he said.
China’s training programme for all military pilots is still developing – particularly when it comes to the naval aviation arm, which was only founded in May 2013.
China’s new carrier set to have smaller jet force than expected
20 Dec 2019
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was commissioned in September 2012, but the first successful fighter landing on the ship did not happen until two months later.
The first successful night landing was not reported by state media until May 2018, almost four years later.
It appears to have taken even longer to fully train helicopter pilots, with the first successful day landing taking place in November 2018, according to China’s Naval Aviation University, and the first night landing in June this year.
The training programme has also been marred by a string of fatal accidents along the way, although Koh said these had been unreported to avoid deterring prospective recruits.
Days after China marked the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Republic with a huge military parade in Beijing on October 1, three airmen were killed when a transport helicopter crashed in central Henan province.
Just eight days later there was another crash on the Tibetan Plateau, where a J-10 fighter jet on a low-altitude flying drill crashed into a mountain. The pilot was reported to have survived.
“The attrition rate of carrier-borne pilot training, including those who might have been injured or killed in the line of duty, isn’t that well publicised by the PLA,” said Koh.
Fighters on the deck of the Liaoning, China’s first carrier. Photo: Xinhua
Li Jie, another Beijing-based military expert, said although the navy is short of pilots now, the problem could be solved within two to three years.
“The insufficient number of carrier-borne warplanes and the substantial training needed for a qualified naval pilot are the two main reasons why China is so short of pilots now. But as China places more and more emphasis on the education and training of the pilots, the problem will be gradually ironed out, ” said Li.
First made-in-China carrier officially enters service
18 Dec 2019
The Naval Aviation University, which is responsible for the training of future naval pilots, has been working with three of the country’s leading universities – Peking, Tsinghua and Beihang – to identify and recruit future pilots.
The authorities have also set up Naval Aviation Experimental Classes in high schools across the country. Each class recruits 50 students, who enjoy a national subsidy and will be put in a priority list to be admitted as a naval pilot.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), presents the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flag and the naming certificate to the captain and political commissar of aircraft carrier Shandong, respectively, during the commissioning ceremony of China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier at a naval port in Sanya, south China’s Hainan Province, Dec. 17, 2019. Xi attended the commissioning ceremony of China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, here Tuesday afternoon. The new aircraft carrier, named after Shandong Province in east China, was delivered to the PLA Navy and placed in active service Tuesday at the naval port. (Xinhua/Li Gang)
SANYA, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) — President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), attended the commissioning ceremony of China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, here Tuesday afternoon.
The new aircraft carrier, named after Shandong Province in east China, was delivered to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and placed in active service Tuesday at a naval port in Sanya, south China’s Hainan Province.
The ceremony started at around 4 p.m.
Xi presented a PLA flag and the naming certificate to the captain and political commissar of the Shandong, respectively, and posed for a group photo with them.
After the ceremony, Xi boarded the Shandong and reviewed the guards of honor. He also inspected the onboard equipment and asked about the work and life of carrier-based aircraft pilots.
On the bridge of the Shandong, Xi greeted the officers and soldiers and signed his name in the log.
Xi also met with representatives of the aircraft carrier unit and the manufacturer at the dock.
Commending China’s achievements in aircraft carrier construction, Xi encouraged them to continue their efforts to make new contributions in the service of the Party and the people.
Approved by the CMC, the Shandong was given the hull number 17.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 