Archive for ‘UBS AG.’

19/08/2019

Oil rises after drone attack on Saudi field

LONDON (Reuters) – Crude oil prices rose on Monday following a weekend attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemeni separatists and as traders looked for signs that U.S.-China trade tensions could ease.

Price gains were, however, capped to some degree by an unusually downbeat OPEC report that stoked concerns about growth in oil demand.

Brent crude LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, was up 65 cents, or about 1.1%, at $59.29 a barrel at 1024 GMT,

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 61 cents, or 1.1%, at $55.48 a barrel.

A drone attack by Yemen’s Houthi group on an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia on Saturday caused a fire at a gas plant, adding to Middle East tensions, but state-run Saudi Aramco said oil production was not affected.

“The oil market seems to be pricing in again a geopolitical risk premium following the weekend drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, but the premium might not sustain if it does not result in any supply disruptions,” said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS.

Tensions around Iran appeared to ease after Gibraltar released an Iranian tanker it seized in July though Tehran warned the United States against any new attempt to seize the tanker in open seas.

Concerns about a recession also limited crude price gains, as traders looked for signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

Meanwhile, China’s announcement of key interest rate reforms over the weekend has fueled expectations of an imminent reduction in corporate borrowing costs in the struggling economy, boosting share prices on Monday.

U.S. energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in seven weeks despite plans by most producers to cut spending on new drilling this year.

“WTI in recent weeks has performed relatively better than Brent… Pipeline start ups in the United States have been supportive for WTI, while the ongoing trade war has had more of an impact on Brent,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at Dutch bank ING.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.10 million bpd and indicated the market would be in slight surplus in 2020.

It is rare for OPEC to give a bearish forward view on the market outlook.

“Such a bearish prognosis will heap more pressure on OPEC to take further measures to support the market,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Source: Reuters

03/03/2019

China stock market to see big capital inflow in 2019 upon MSCI weight decision, UBS says

NEW YORK, March 2 (Xinhua) — Capital inflow into Chinese on-shore stock market would accelerate in 2019 thanks to global index supplier MSCI’s decision to hike the inclusion factor of China’s A-Shares from 5 percent to 20 percent in three steps within 2019, according to a research note by Swiss multinational investment bank UBS AG.

The weighting for Chinese A-shares in MSCI Emerging Market index would rise to 3.3 percent by November, up from around 0.7 percent at present, said MSCI.

“This latest MSCI weight increase should help trigger at least 60 billion U.S. dollars in inflows to A-shares in 2019, pushing cumulative foreign ownership above 160 billion U.S. dollars,” said the research note issued on Friday.

Higher A-share allocation is a long-term structural trend for international investors, it added.

Incremental buying in the short term will probably remain biased toward select sectors and stocks currently prefered by overseas capital, such as white goods, insurance, healthcare and electronics, it said.

Meanwhile, the sharp run-up in onshore brokers, partially stoked by recent recovery in onshore stock markets, offers attractive levels to take profits in the sector, according to UBS.

MSCI’s announcement of higher A-share inclusion factor will bring a new pool of international investors to the A-share market, which overtime will help raise transparency and improve governance to these listed companies, said Jorge Mariscal, chief investment officer on emerging markets with UBS Wealth Management.

The weight of China’s A-shares in MSCI Emerging Market index could increase to 15 percent within the next 10 years and active emerging market investors would find it hard to brush aside exposure to Chinese onshore portfolios amid similar moves by other international index providers, according to UBS.

UBS said it remains tactically overweight on Chinese equities in its Asian portfolios and continues to prefer onshore to offshore Chinese stocks with the former set to benefit from capital inflow, more accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus.

Widely-followed Shanghai Composite Index has entered territory of bull market thanks to solid growth so far this year and closed just shy of 3000 points on March 1.

Source: Xinhua

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