Posts tagged ‘Balance of trade’

14/05/2015

5 Gaps That Define the India-China Relationship, in Charts and Maps – WSJ

1 Trade Gap

To better understand why there is a gaping trade deficit between India and China, take a look at the list of things each country exports to the other.

Some of China’s biggest exports to India are telecommunications equipment, computer hardware, industrial machinery and other manufactured goods. India sends back mostly raw materials such as cotton yarn, copper, petroleum products and iron ore.

As India has grown its consumers and corporations have been importing an increasing amount of China’s affordable products but India’s exports to China have not kept pace.

During his visit to China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be seeking better access to Chinese markets to correct the widening trade imbalance.

“The visit is going to be crucial because our trade deficit with China is very huge compared to other countries,” says N.R. Bhanumurthy, an economist at think-tank National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

While China has a cost advantage in most products, analysts say India is very competitive in the pharmaceutical, textile and some services sectors. That is where it needs more access if it wants to start to rectify the skewed trade balance.

2 The 13-Year Gap

Even though India is now growing faster than China (see number 4)  the world’s largest democracy still has a way to go to catch up with the size of the economy in the world’s most populous nation.

China, though, got a 13-year head start on India in opening its economy and giving companies greater freedom to invest and produce. In exports, capital spending and foreign investment, India today is remarkably similar to China circa 2001.

That should both console and concern India as it gets back on its feet after three years of weak growth and high inflation. Console, since it suggests the country’s economy could remain on a China-like trajectory for years to come. But concern, because India’s delay could mean that the country has missed out on some big advantages that catalyzed China’s boom.

3 The Border Perception Gap

Friction along the two nations’ 2,200-mile-long border, much of which is undefined and contested, has mounted in recent years, India says. And it poses a serious hurdle to improving relations between Delhi and Beijing.

Part of the problem, Indian officials say, is that India and China have “differing perceptions” of their de facto border, known as the Line of Actual Control. Both sides patrol up to their respective perceptions of the border, leading to frequent claims of transgressions.

Without a clearly demarcated border, “it is quite natural for some incidents to happen,” Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Col.Geng Yansheng said in September during a border confrontation between the two countries.

4 The GDP Growth Rate Gap

Everyone from the World Bank to Goldman Sachs had predicted it wouldn’t happen for another two years but recent recalculations indicate that India has already dethroned China as the world’s fastest-growing big economy.

5 The FDI Gap

While Chinese companies have been great at peddling their products in India, they have been surprisingly reluctant to invest here. China has invested less in India than even Poland, Malaysia or Canada have.

via 5 Gaps That Define the India-China Relationship, in Charts and Maps – WSJ.

14/05/2013

* India and China; making up, but what about trade?

FT: “Salman Khurshid, India’s foreign minister, is back from a trip to China last week, happy to see the end of a tense stand-off over a long-running border dispute. Settling that issue will re-open the way for a planned visit by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to India and allow the two countries to concentrate on the big topic on Khurshid’s agenda: trade.

But here, too, relations between the region’s big powers are not entirely friendly.

Back in November 2011, India and China set a target for bilateral trade of $100bn for 2015. That’s quite a leap from $2.3bn a decade ago and marks a concrete step in bringing the two nations closer together.

But the balance of trade is strongly in China’s favour. Now Kurshid has put the November 2011 agreement “on pause” until the imbalance is resolved.

According to India’s department of commerce, India’s exports to China in April to December 2012 were worth $9.7bn. In the same period, China’s exports to India were worth $41.2bn – a bilateral trade deficit for India of $31.5bn, nearly a quarter of India’s entire trade deficit in the period.

Khurshid claimed not to have minced his words:

We said that let the trade imbalance be addressed upfront as an urgent priority, and then of course we can move to the next stage which is the regional trading arrangement.

What does the minister want from China? One target is better market access, especially for India’s IT and pharmaceuticals companies. Indian business leaders complain that exports to China would be much greater if China’s big state owned enterprises could be persuaded to source from foreign suppliers.

But others say a lack of competitiveness among Indian manufacturers contributes to the problem.

“China has a very competitive manufacturing sector that is able to produce at a large scale pretty efficiently and for reasonable prices,” says Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at RBS.

“Sometimes we would be inclined to think there is a lot of [Chinese] government policy behind this. People point to the subsidies that China’s government has given to industries in the past and companies having preferential access to loans. But in the bigger scheme of things, those subsidies aren’t the driving force. China is a bit ahead in industrialisation and has becomes very competitive globally.”

Kuijs doesn’t think this is about to change. Chinese manufacturers do good business in India in both consumer goods and capital goods. And he takes the view that, despite the current cyclical slowdown, both consumption and infrastructure investment will remain robust in India, so demand for Chinese products will continue to grow.

A little tinkering on a calculator provides a bit of good news for Indian trade, however. According to data from the World Trade Organization, India’s global merchandise exports grew faster than China’s between 2005 and 2012. Over the seven-year period, India’s exports grew at an average 18.3 per cent a year, against a figure of 16.3 per cent for China and 9.4 per cent for the world as a whole.

So, Indian exports are growing relatively quickly. But China’s lower growth comes from a far higher base. In 2012, China exported goods worth more than $2tn while India’s exports were worth $293bn. Even with their faster rate of growth, it will take a long time for India’s exporters to catch up on China’s lead.”

via India and China; making up, but what about trade? | beyondbrics.

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