Posts tagged ‘Brazil’

05/10/2015

India’s Competitive Ranking Surges on the Back of Modi Momentum – India Real Time – WSJ

India leapt 16 places to 55th position in the latest ranking of economies’ competitiveness released by the World Economic Forum Wednesday.

The Geneva-based think tank says India is a “bright spot” among larger emerging markets, which have shown a broader trend of either a decline or stagnation. It attributes the country’s big rise–which comes after five years of decline–to the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi last year, which ignited optimism about the country’s limping policy changes.

“This dramatic reversal is largely attributable to the momentum initiated by the election of Narendra Modi, whose pro-business, pro-growth, and anti-corruption stance has improved the business community’s sentiment toward the government,” the WEF says in the report, which includes the Global Competitiveness Index 2015–2016 Rankings.

The ranking is based on the assessment of 140 countries on 12 parameters such as infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, institutions, health and education, among others.

The report says the quality of India’s institutions was judged more favorably in the latest ranking while its macro-economic stability has improved, with easing inflation and a gradual drop in the government’s budget deficit since its 2008 peak. Infrastructure has also improved, the report said.

“The fact that the most notable improvements are in the basic drivers of competitiveness bodes well for the future, especially the development of the manufacturing sector,” the report said.

However, India needs to improve its technological readiness: it is one of the least digitally connected countries in the world.Fewer than one in five Indians use the Internet regularly, and fewer than two in five own even a basic cell phone, according to the report.

The ranking of regional rival China has barely budged in the past six years as it has been dealing with rising production costs, an aging population and diminishing returns on the massive capital investments of the past three decades.

However, its 28th position–unchanged  from the previous year–is still much higher than India’s.

China remains by far the most competitive among larger emerging economies. “However, its lack of progress moving up the ranking shows the challenges it faces in transitioning its economy,” the report said.

Switzerland, Singapore and the U.S. were the top three ranked, unchanged from the previous year.

In Asia, Malaysia ranked 18th, up two places, Indonesia ranked 37th, down three notches while Thailand ranked 32nd, down one position.

Among the remaining BRICS group of countries, Brazil was at number 75, plummeting from 57 last year. The Russian Federation was at number 45, up from 53 and South Africa was at 49, better than 56 last year.

Source: India’s Competitive Ranking Surges on the Back of Modi Momentum – India Real Time – WSJ

27/08/2015

Why India Stands to Benefit From China Slowdown and Global Reaction – India Real Time – WSJ

India’s economy has been insulated from the turmoil in emerging markets by a long-standing handicap: It isn’t an export powerhouse. For years, growth in India has been fueled more by domestic demand—not, as in China, by manufacturing goods for sale abroad. Now India’s resilient consumer spending is an advantage as demand decelerates almost everywhere else. It is luring companies to produce in India and, the government hopes, can help spark a belated industrial revolution in the country of 1.2 billion.

Jayant Sinha, India’s minister of state for finance, said this week the Chinese slowdown and its world-wide fallout could provide a chance for India to “take the baton of global growth.” Mumbai’s benchmark stock index ended Wednesday down 1.2%, having slid 8.5% in total since the People’s Bank of China moved to devalue the yuan on Aug. 11. The rupee has lost 3.4% since then. India hasn’t been rattled as badly as Brazil, Russia or South Africa. Its international reserves are ample, and it isn’t highly dependent on foreign capital to fund imports.

Source: Why India Stands to Benefit From China Slowdown and Global Reaction – India Real Time – WSJ

09/07/2015

How India Could Be Hit by Chinese Stock Slide – India Real Time – WSJ

The dive in Chinese markets on Wednesday may have rattled investors across the globe, but prospectors in India need not panic: any trickle down impact of the crisis on the South Asian nation will be limited to certain sectors.

The Shanghai Composite index has lost around a third of its value over the past month and concern is growing that Beijing’s failure to prop up its equity markets means it will be unable to push through its broader agenda of liberalizing the economy to mitigate the country’s slowing growth.

India’s metals companies are likely to be affected the most as China is the world’s biggest importer of steel and iron ore. Any further slowdown in China’s economy will bring down global prices, hurting Indian firms’ profitability.

 

Meanwhile, luxury-car manufacturers are also likely to take a hit. Tata Motors 500570.BY +1.62%’ share price has already lost about 8% in the past two trading sessions on concerns that the problems in China could further worsen the slowdown in demand for its Jaguar Land Rover luxury cars there, which is now the single-largest market for JLR.

But long-term effects are expected to be minimal. India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex index has gained about 5% during the past month.

Though India’s benchmark index fell 1.7% yesterday, analysts and fund managers attribute it to a domino effect from China that won’t last. India’s improving domestic fundamentals are capable of thwarting a similar meltdown.

“India is relatively better off among the emerging markets as we don’t have too many negatives compared to other countries,” said Deven Choksey, managing director of Mumbai-based brokerage K.R. Choksey Shares and Securities.

He said investors will give preference to the ongoing reform process in India and key legislation such as the Land Acquisition Bill and the Goods and Services Tax Bill, rather than global events.

Analysts said upcoming corporate earnings will also matter more to Indian stock prices than the Chinese turmoil. Though corporate earnings are expected to take some time to improve, analysts are confident that a sharp recovery in profits is likely from the second half of this financial year. The January-March period was the worst earnings season in the past two years.

“Both (China and India) can’t be compared and, in fact, the developments in China will only serve to reinforce confidence in India and India’s market structure,” said Aashish Somaiyaa, chief executive of Motilal Oswal Asset Management Co.

In fact, foreign investors, who own about 43% of the publicly-traded shares of companies in the Sensex, have invested about $600 million already in July, after pulling out nearly $1.8 billion in the previous two months.

And domestic investors have not lost faith in the Indian story as they have poured in nearly $2.4 billion into stocks since May.

“Whenever there is a correction in [the] Indian market, we are getting more enquiries,” said Nandkumar Surti, chief executive of J.P. Morgan Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd.

via How India Could Be Hit by Chinese Stock Slide – India Real Time – WSJ.

11/05/2015

Private banker KV Kamath named first BRICS bank head | Reuters

Indian private banker K.V. Kamath has been named as the first head of a new development bank being set up by the BRICS group of emerging market economies, Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi told reporters on Monday.

K.V.Kamath gestures during the Reuters India Summit at his office in Mumbai in this November 25, 2008 file photo. REUTERS/Stringer/Files

The BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – agreed to set up the $100 billion development bank last July, in a step toward reshaping the Western-dominated international financial system.

“Kamath has been appointed as the head of the BRICS bank, the appointment will become effective when he becomes free from his current assignments,” Mehrishi told reporters in New Delhi.

It was agreed then that the New Development Bank, which will fund infrastructure projects in developing nations, would be based in Shanghai. It would be headed by an Indian for a first five-year term, followed by a Brazilian and then a Russian.

via Private banker KV Kamath named first BRICS bank head | Reuters.

19/11/2014

Why India is doing better than most emerging markets | The Economist

INVESTORS have fallen out of love with emerging markets. Since the start of last year emerging-market stocks have trailed their rich-world peers. Currencies are falling. Worst-hit is the Russian rouble, which has fallen by 30% against the dollar this year. The currencies of other biggish emerging markets, such as Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, have also weakened. For such economies growth is harder to come by. The IMF recently cut its forecasts for emerging markets by more than for rich countries. But India is a notable exception to the general pessimism. Its stockmarket has touched new highs. The rupee is stable. And the IMF nudged up its 2014 growth forecast for India to 5.8%. That figure is still quite low: growth rates of 8-9% have been more typical. But in comparison with others it is almost a boom. Why is India doing better than most emerging markets?

In part optimism about India owes to its newish government. In May Narendra Modi’s Baratiya Janata Party (BJP) won a thumping victory in elections on a pro-growth platform. Since then the BJP has strengthened its position in some key states. So far reform has been piecemeal. Procedures for government approvals have been streamlined. The powers of labour inspectors have been curbed. Civil servants now work harder. That has been enough to sustain hopes of further and bigger reforms. Yet much of the continued enthusiasm about India is down to luck. The currents that sway the global economy presently—the dollar’s strength; slowdown in China; aggressive money-printing in Japan; stagnation in the euro zone and falling oil prices—are less harmful to India than to most emerging markets.

Start with the dollar, which has been buoyed by a resilient American economy and the prospect of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Past episodes of rising interest rates and dollar strength (for instance in the early 1980s or mid-1990s) have not been kind to emerging markets. Bond yields rise and currencies fall as capital is drawn back to America. India has a bit less to fear from such a rush to the exits; its bond markets are tricky for foreigners to enter in the first place. India is also less harmed by slowdown in China, as only around 5% of its exports go there. It is not part of China’s supply-chain, which takes in much of South-East Asia. Nor is it a big exporter of industrial commodities, as Brazil is. And a weaker yen in response to quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan hurts Asia’s manufacturing exporters more than service-intensive India. The misery in the euro zone is of greater concern to Europe’s trading partners in Turkey and Russia than to faraway India. And the fall in crude-oil prices that hurts oil exporters, such as Russia and Nigeria, is a boon to a big oil importer like India. Indeed the deflation that is stalking large parts of the world is helpful to India, which has suffered from high inflation.

India is not impervious to bad news. Some of its recent economic data have looked a little soggy. Exports slumped in October. Car sales have fallen for two consecutive months and there is little sign yet of a meaningful recovery in business investment. This explains, in part, why there have been growing calls (including from the finance minister) for the central bank to cut interest rates soon in response to a drop in consumer-price inflation. The troubles in other emerging markets ought to counsel caution. Any sign that policymakers might be ditching discipline in favour of quick fixes might see India fall from investors’ favour. But for the time being, it is riding high.

via The Economist explains: Why India is doing better than most emerging markets | The Economist.

26/08/2014

China’s Skyrocketing (Pet) Population – Businessweek

During a stint in the U.S. Army, Dennis Schenk worked alongside canine rescue units in the aftermath of a hurricane. He fell in love with dogs and decided he wanted to make them his career. He eventually got certified as a dog trainer by the International Association of Canine Professionals and the International Association of Animal Behavior Consultants and in 2009 moved to China. Now he’s flown around the country by clients who pay him 500 yuan ($81) an hour to train their dogs to come and sit, and to treat them—the pets, not owners—for anxiety and aggression.

"Building a Beautiful Home for Your Pooch" (left); "The Most Beautiful Tail"

Cat and dog lovers are a relatively new breed in China. Up until the 1980s, keeping pet dogs was illegal in Beijing, because pets were considered to be a bourgeois affectation. Restrictions were loosened in the 1990s and early 2000s. (A height limit on dogs is still in place.) By 2012 the city had more than 1 million registered pet dogs, now served by more than 300 pet hospitals, according to the Beijing Small Animal Veterinary Association. China has become the third-largest pet market in the world, after the U.S. and Brazil, according to Euromonitor International, and is home to 27 million dogs and 11 million cats.

Maoist rhetoric hasn’t disappeared entirely. In early August the Communist Party-run People’s Daily ran an editorial decrying pet ownership as a “crude and ludicrous imitation [of a] Western lifestyle”—and argued that uncollected sidewalk poop disrupts “social peace and harmony.” In some cities, unwanted puppies are dumped on the street and become strays. The local press has reported cases of auxiliary police officers beating strays to death.

via China’s Skyrocketing (Pet) Population – Businessweek.

22/07/2014

BRICS Summit: A Show of Economic Might Is Nothing to Fear – Businessweek

As Brazilians were recovering last week from the World Cup, the country held another global event: the BRICS summit, a gathering of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The outcome was no doubt more pleasing to Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff than her country’s soccer performance. The countries agreed to set up a $50 billion “BRICS bank” to invest in development projects in the developing world, alongside a $100 billion pool of reserve currencies earmarked as “a kind of mini-IMF,” according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. It was a strong statement of the grouping’s growing global economic heft and a challenge to the order established by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

China President Xi Jinping being welcomed by President Rousseff at Planalto Palace in Brasilia

Some in the West have perceived that challenge as a threat. The U.S. has veto power over major decisions at the International Monetary Fund. Without European or American backing, it is almost impossible to get a loan through the World Bank. The North Atlantic powers will have no such say in the operations of the BRICS bank, another sign that the global balance of economic and financial power is shifting.

The BRICS do pose a threat, but their own development bank isn’t it. The more worrisome risk is that the BRICS won’t grow as quickly as they have in the past, that the grand plans hatched in Brazil will dwindle along with the economies supporting them. If pessimistic forecasts of Asian and Latin American economic performance turn out to be justified, that’s no reason for cheer in Washington or Brussels—collapsing growth in the developing world would be terrible news for the West.

via BRICS Summit: A Show of Economic Might Is Nothing to Fear – Businessweek.

20/07/2014

China, Brazil close plane, finance, infrastructure deals | Reuters

In a raft of energy, finance and industry accords signed before presidents Xi Jinping and Dilma Rousseff, the two nations agreed to join forces to build railways to help Brazil cut its infrastructure deficit and feed China’s appetite for commodities.

English: Official photo of President Rousseff,...

English: Official photo of President Rousseff, taken by official photographer, at Alvorada Palace on January 9th, 2011. Français : Photo de Dilma Rousseff, prise par un photographe officiel, dans le Palácio da Alvorada le 9 janvier, 2011. Português: Foto oficial da presidente Dilma Rousseff feita no Palácio do Alvorada no dia 9 de janeiro de 2011 pelo fotografo oficial. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Trade between China and Brazil soared to $83.3 billion last year from $3.2 billion in 2002, with iron ore, soy and oil making up the bulk of Brazilian exports, making China the South American nation’s biggest trade partner.

China’s Eximbank extended a $5 billion credit line to Vale to buy ships and equipment from Chinese companies, but there was no mention of a solution to an impasse over China’s refusal to allow giant, bulk iron ore carriers used by Vale SA to dock at Chinese ports.

In a sign of deepening financial ties between the two members of the BRICs bloc of emerging nations, the China Construction Bank formalized acquisition of 72 percent of Brazilian mid-size lender Banco Industrial e Comercial SA, a 1.62 billion real deal agreed in October.

Xi visited Brasilia after a BRICS summit that set up a new $100 billion development bank, to be based in Shanghai, that will fund infrastructure projects, providing developing nations with an alternative source of funding to Western-dominated multilateral financial institutions.

via China, Brazil close plane, finance, infrastructure deals | Reuters.

08/07/2014

India to be 3rd largest economy next to China by 2030: PwC – daily.bhaskar.com

India is set to become the third largest economy in the world by 2030, according to latest estimates by a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report.

 

The London-headquartered accountancy giant said the rapid rise of the Indian economy with its young workforce would push it up from being the 10th largest economy in 2013 to the third largest by 2030, pushing the UK back into sixth place.

 

 

 

“In the longer run, other emerging markets may overtake the UK, but only India looks set to do so before 2030 according to our latest projections,” PwC said in its latest economic outlook.

 

China, the world’s second largest economy, is expected to close the gap with America by 2030, while Mexico is predicted to be the 10th largest economy by 2030, above Canada and Italy, both G7 nations.

 

Only a couple of years ago there were forecasts that Britain would rapidly become a second-class economic power and would need to defer to the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China in the near future.

 

China has ranked above Japan for a decade as the world’s second-biggest economy.

By some calculations Brazil leapfrogged the UK in 2012, with Russia and India close behind.

Britain’s fall was partly related to the costs of the banking crisis and the recession that followed, coupled with a sharp decline in the exchange rate, which knocked about a quarter off the country’s value in relation to its main rivals.

 

But since the beginning of last year the economy has recovered all the lost ground from the recession and banks have begun lending again.

 

The pound has bounced back from about US$ 1.40 in 2009 to US$ 1.71 today.

 

Brazil, by contrast, has suffered a rocky couple of years that have slowed GDP growth and pushed down the value of the real.

 

Russia will close the gap on the top eight, but its reliance on the oil and gas industry for growth and its rapidly ageing population will prevent it jumping up the table as quickly as previously thought.

 

Only India will move ahead of the UK by 2030, though it will be sharing a projected GDP of US$ 6.1 trillion among more than 1.5 billion people, only half as much again as the UK’s predicted output of US$ 4 trillionn, produced by a population less than a 20th the size.

via India to be 3rd largest economy next to China by 2030: PwC – daily.bhaskar.com.

01/07/2014

Samsung’s China Labor Problems Persist – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Samsung Electronics Co.’s latest sustainability report, published Monday, is a rare look inside the operations of the company. Among the takeaways: Samsung is still struggling with poor labor conditions at its Chinese suppliers.

A third-party audit of 100 of Samsung’s suppliers in China last year showed that 59 failed to provide sufficient safety equipment, like earplugs and protective goggles, or did not monitor workers to ensure they were using such equipment, according to the report.

The report lists a series of other problems found by the audit, including issues related to wages and benefits and emergency preparedness. The audit also found that a majority of the suppliers do not comply with China’s legally permitted overtime hours. Samsung said it has demanded its suppliers address all the violations found by the report.

The results follow a vow made by Samsung in 2012 that it would address unfair labor practices at its Chinese suppliers, including overwork and denial of basic labor rights. On multiple occasions, the company has been accused by New York-based non-profit organization China Labor Watch of malpractice at some factories that do work for Samsung.

In a separate statement on Tuesday, Samsung said: “We have adopted a multi-year, multifaceted supplier management plan since 2012 to address the findings of internal and independent audits of Samsung supplier companies in China.”

“If any suppliers are found to have not made progress, Samsung will constantly call for corrective actions to ensure the issue is resolved in the shortest time possible,” it said.

Maintaining a safe and fair working environment for its staff and those of its suppliers around the globe has been a growing challenge for the world’s largest maker of smartphones, TVs and memory-chips. The company has come under scrutiny over related issues not only in China but also in Brazil and at home in South Korea.

via Samsung’s China Labor Problems Persist – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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