Posts tagged ‘Business’

27/09/2013

Big reform plans for China’s newest trade zone set high expectations

Reuters: “China has formally announced detailed plans for a new free-trade zone (FTZ) in Shanghai, touted as the country’s biggest potential economic reform since Deng Xiaoping used a similar zone in Shenzhen to pry open a closed economy to trade in 1978.

The sunrise rises over the skyline of Lujiazui financial district of Pudong in Shanghai September 27, 2013. REUTERS/Aly Song

In an announcement on Friday from the State Council, or cabinet, China said it will open up its largely sheltered services sector to foreign competition in the zone and use it as a testbed for bold financial reforms, including a convertible yuan and liberalized interest rates. Economists consider both areas key levers for restructuring the world’s second-largest economy and putting it on a more sustainable growth path.

No specific timeline was given for implementing any of the reforms, though these should be carried out within 2-3 years, it said, adding financial liberalization may depend on adequate risk controls. Chinese state media have cautioned that dramatic financial reforms are unlikely this year.

An executive at a foreign multinational in Shanghai said his firm was waiting for more clarity. “Is this Shenzen 2.0 heralding the beginning of a new era in trade, or a flash in the pan to simply boost economic confidence?””

via Big reform plans for China’s newest trade zone set high expectations | Reuters.

29/08/2013

India Rupee Gains 3.5%, Pulls Shares Sharply Higher

WSJ: “India‘s rupee rose 3.5% Thursday, erasing most of the currency’s losses in the previous session when it hit a record low, helped by a central bank step to reduce dollar demand in the spot market.

The sharp rupee recovery also pulled local stocks higher, with the Bombay Stock Exchange‘s S&P BSE Sensex index closing 2.3% up at 18401.04 points. On the National Stock Exchange, the Nifty index gained 2.4% to end at 5409.05 points.

The rupee was at 66.55 to the dollar in late Asian trade Thursday, compared with the record low of 68.80 it hit late in the previous session.

The Reserve Bank of India said late Wednesday that it would sell dollars to the country’s three state-run oil refiners through a designated commercial bank, shifting the bulk of the refiners’ demand for dollars away from the open market. Oil refiners are India’s biggest buyers of dollars, which they use to pay for crude-oil imports.”

via India Rupee Gains 3.5%, Pulls Shares Sharply Higher – WSJ.com.

29/07/2013

Capability building in China

Abbreviated from: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/asia-pacific/capability_building_in_china?cid=china-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1307

Article|McKinsey Quarterly

Capability building in China

 

Skill building must be rewards-based, rooted in real work, and tailored to local conditions.

 
July 2013 | byKarel Eloot, Gernot Strube, and Arthur Wang
 

Capability building—leadership, managerial, and team-based skills rather than technical ones—has become an urgent imperative for many companies in China. As the country loses its extreme low-cost-labor advantage, businesses must look for ways to increase productivity and internal collaboration, to better understand consumers, and to develop a more sophisticated appetite for risk.

Companies in China face many of the same challenges—a lack of up-front planning and inadequate resources—that bedevil capability-building exercises everywhere. But certain “China factors” stand out. For starters, the demand for managers with strong leadership skills and international experience is growing significantly faster than the supply of qualified candidates. That imbalance makes it more difficult to pull off successful skill-building efforts, even for multinationals that typically invest more in training than Chinese companies do. (Indeed, one implication of China’s white-hot war for talent is that outside trainers brought in by multinational companies to set up and run new programs often move on before relevant tools and internal processes are in place.) Another perennial challenge for multinationals: the Chinese context and culture, which may require local tailoring of global approaches.

Then, of course, there are China’s state-owned enterprises. Many of them only recently converted from government departments into commercial entities and are still working to adapt to a competitive environment and adopt a true business mind-set. These companies generally lack a systematic approach to nurturing employees moving up the organizational ladder. They misconstrue capability building as a classroom activity, missing the impact of linking it to actual business. And they are too inflexible either to fire underperformers or to reward and promote employees, including managers, who change their behavior and adopt the necessary mind-sets.

While the challenges facing multinationals and state-owned enterprises differ, our experience with leaders at both kinds of organizations (as well as with private-sector Chinese companies) has highlighted the importance of some common, broadly applicable principles. In this article, we describe three that should help companies overcome many of the obstacles that have frustrated capability-building efforts in the past.

1. Relate capability building to real activities

2. Instill incentives and create opportunities for promotion

3. Don’t forget China’s unique culture

The solutions may sound obvious: developing Chinese teaching materials to help solve problems, building day-to-day business problems around products that participants would find in the Chinese market, and localizing global training materials through culturally appropriate metaphors and examples. But we know from experience how easy it is to overlook these issues. In our own work, we routinely use a case involving a coffee machine to teach managers about the seven types of waste and how a “lean” perspective can address them. When we recently used this case at a Chinese state-owned enterprise, however, the managers couldn’t make sense of the story, because they had never used a coffee machine. We have now adapted the context to tea making.

About the authors

Karel Eloot is a director in McKinsey’s Shanghai office; Gernot Strube is a director in the Hong Kong office, where Arthur Wang is a principal.

26/07/2013

Why China’s Debt Bubble Won’t Burst

BusinessWeek: “Is China facing the prospect of a financial meltdown? That’s a question gaining new urgency as its economy decelerates: Growth in the second quarter came in at 7.5 percent, its second consecutive decline. Total debt now amounts to more than $17 trillion, or an astonishing 210 percent of gross domestic product, up 50 percentage points from four years ago, estimates Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Securities (UBS).

Bicycle commuters ride past high-rises in Beijing in 2011

The scale of the problem suggests the worries are well founded. Take China’s highly leveraged corporate sector. Company debt reached 113 percent of GDP at the end of 2012, up from 86 percent in 2008, when the country’s leadership directed banks to open their lending spigots during the financial crisis, estimates Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in Hong Kong. Making matters worse, the biggest company borrowers—state-owned enterprises in heavy industries like steel, aluminum, solar, and ship-building—are now saddled with overcapacity funded by the easy credit.

A significant portion of new lending is going towards paying interest on old loans, according to UBS’s Wang. “Manufacturers facing oversupply issues will be the most likely source of new non-performing loans for banks this year,” says Liao Qiang, director of ratings for financial institutions at Standard & Poor’s. “And next year banks will see growing pressure, from [stressed] property developers, construction companies, and local government borrowers.”

While the officially reported level of bad loans is still very low—just under 1 percent for commercial banks as of the end of last year—that is likely understated. Local government borrowing—in part through China’s largely unregulated shadow banking system—has surged in recent years and now amounts to about one-third of gross domestic product, according to UBS. Much of that money has been pumped into infrastructure projects and property developments that will not provide returns for years. If China’s property markets cool, local governments—heavily reliant on land sales—may start to default on their loans.

While many analysts are becoming gloomier about China’s economy, they acknowledge that there’s very little risk of a systemic crisis. Capital controls protect China from the outflows that triggered financial meltdowns in countries including Thailand and Malaysia in the late 1990s. Also, China’s external debt is very small, only 7.2 percent of GDP, points out Royal Bank’s Kuijs, so a change in sentiment by foreigners would not have much impact.

With its high personal savings and $1.7 trillion in net foreign assets, China has ample resources to bail out banks and ailing industries. Kuijs figures that even under a “severe stress” scenario, where one-third of loans went bad, the cost of a rescue would push up government debt by only seven percentage points, to a still-manageable 60 percent. “It would certainly be messy. But China has the fiscal wherewithal to absorb problems like this,” he says. UBS’s Wang is also sanguine. “The level of debt is not a good judgment of whether a country has a serious problem,” she says. “The issue is whether it can afford the debt, and so far China can.””

via Why China’s Debt Bubble Won’t Burst – Businessweek.

25/07/2013

China unveils fresh measures to boost growth

BBC: “China has unveiled a series of moves aimed at boosting growth, indicating that policymakers are concerned about the slowdown in its economy.Worker climbs out of an underground construction site in Hefei, China

The steps include tax breaks for small businesses, reduced fees for exporters and opening up of railway construction.

China’s economic growth rate has slowed for two quarters in a row and there are concerns that it may slow further.

But the cabinet said the economy was in a reasonable shape and it was pushing for reforms to stabilise growth.

“The economy is still running in a reasonable range,” the cabinet said.

“We must look at now and beyond to let restructuring and reform play an active role in stabilising growth.””

via BBC News – China unveils fresh measures to boost growth.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/china-needs-to-rebalance-her-economy/

20/07/2013

China frees up lending rates in major reform

Reuters: “China’s central bank removed controls on bank lending rates, effective Saturday, in a long-awaited move that signals the new leadership’s determination to carry out market-oriented reforms.

An employee counts money on the last workday of the week at a bank in Taiyuan, Shanxi province in this June 28, 2013 file picture. China's central bank announced long-awaited interest rate reforms on July 19, 2013, scrapping the previous floor on the rates that banks charge clients for loans. Picture taken June 28, 2013. REUTERS/Jon Woo

The move gives commercial banks the freedom to compete for borrowers, a reform the People’s Bank of China said on Friday will help lower financial costs for companies. Previously, the lending floor was 70 percent of the benchmark lending rate.

However, the PBOC, in a statement, left a ceiling on deposit rates unchanged at 110 percent of benchmark rates, avoiding for now what many economists see as the most important step Beijing needs to take to free up interest rates.

The latest step underscores Beijing’s resolve to start fixing distortions in its financial system and the economy more broadly as it tries to shift from export- and investment-led growth to more consumption-led activity.

Some analysts said cheaper credit could help support the economy, which has seen year-on-year growth fall in nine of the last 10 quarters.

“This is a big breakthrough in financial reforms,” said Wang Jun, senior economist at China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a prominent government think-tank in Beijing.

“Previously, people had thought the central bank would only gradually lower the floor on lending rates. Now they scrapped the floor once and for all.”

The Australian dollar rose modestly on the news on hopes cheaper credit will lead to more demand from Australia’s biggest export market.

The announcement provided some support to weak stock markets in Europe .FTEU3 and a timely reminder to the world’s top financial leaders meeting in Moscow of China’s intention to rebalance its economy.

A Group of 20 draft communiqué will urge China to encourage more domestic demand-driven growth as part of wider efforts to rebalance the world economy, G20 sources said.

The United States welcomed the move, saying China promised to let markets play a bigger role in allocating credit during the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington last week.

“This is a welcome further step in the reform and liberalization of China’s financial system,” Holly Shulman, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Treasury, said in an email.”

via China frees up lending rates in major reform | Reuters.

13/07/2013

Women and the property market: Married to the mortgage

The Economist: “CHINA’s communists attacked many bourgeois institutions after taking power in 1949. But marriage was not one of them. On the contrary, they enacted a marriage law in 1950, four years before they introduced a constitution. The pressure to marry remains heavy in today’s China, where almost 80% of adults have tied the knot at some point, compared with only 68% in America. But today, in contrast to the 1950s, marriage is bound up with another bourgeois institution: property.

In China mortgages often precede marriages. According to popular belief, if a man and his family cannot buy property he will struggle to find a bride. In choosing a husband, three-quarters of women consider his ability to provide a home, according to a recent survey of young people in China’s coastal cities by Horizon China, a Beijing-based market-research firm. Even if a woman herself dismisses this criterion, her family and friends, not to mention the country’s estate agents, will not let her forget it.

“Naked marriages”, as property-less ones are known, are endorsed by increasing numbers of young people. But as they get older, their attitudes may regress faster than society’s progress. One 28-year-old Beijing woman married her husband after falling in love with him at college. But “if you introduced a man to me now, and he couldn’t afford a home, I wouldn’t marry him,” she says. “I need to be more realistic. I’m not a 20-year-old girl.”

Some economists argue that competition for brides in China’s marriage “market” helps explain the punishingly high prices in its property market. Houses are least affordable in those parts of China where men most outnumber women, argue Shang-jin Wei of Columbia University, Xiaobo Zhang of the International Food Policy Research Institute and Yin Liu of Tsinghua University (see chart).

 

via Women and the property market: Married to the mortgage | The Economist.

12/07/2013

China’s Savers Block the Consumer Economy

The Chinese public must be very confused.  The government is urging them to spend rather than save. Yet, government itself is on a serious austerity drive. See post on the cut back in budget for the National Gameshttps://chindia-alert.org/2013/07/12/austerity-threatens-to-take-gloss-off-chinas-national-games/.

BusinessWeek: “Twenty-seven-year-old lawyer Kevin Han is frugal. Breakfast is 5 yuan (82¢) for a cup of soybean milk and a hard-boiled egg or a steamed bun. He has a 20-yuan lunch of white rice, with small portions of meat and vegetables, in the cafeteria at his workplace in Beijing. He spends about the same for dinner. Han gets deals buying clothes online, lives in a cheap rental apartment, and takes the subway to work (4 yuan round-trip). Scrimping is a must if he’s to buy his own place. He says he saves about half his monthly take-home pay of 13,000 yuan. “I want to get married and have a child, which will cost lots of money. My parents are not rich. So I have to save everything by myself.”

China's Savers Block the Consumer Economy

China’s leaders want these super savers to open their wallets and boost​ a slowing economy. Chinese on average put away 30.6 percent of their disposable income, amounting to 6.9 trillion yuan in total household savings in China in 2012, estimates Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in Hong Kong. That’s up from 23 percent 10 years ago. With increasing overcapacity in steel and cement, rising corporate debt, and a growing problem with unregulated shadow finance, Beijing must wean China off investment-led growth in favor of more household consumption—only 35.7 percent of gross domestic product, way behind the 50 percent to 60 percent in many other countries.

Middle-class Chinese like Han pinch pennies to pay for ever-more costly city apartments and save for their children’s education costs. The working class also hoards yuan. Twenty-six-year-old Sichuan native Wei Yinping, a worker in a Shenzhen watchband factory, worries about paying for medical care if she or her parents become seriously ill. She saves almost half her monthly salary of 2,500 yuan. Without a hukou, or household registration card, she can’t avail herself of Shenzhen’s public health-care network. “If I had a local hukou, I would have many social security benefits” and not save so much, she says. Wei plans eventually to move back home and take care of her mother.

One reason the Chinese are champion savers is that earning a decent return is so hard. China’s central bank has kept rates low: A one-year deposit rate offers 3 percent, while loans to support investment by free-spending local governments and state companies go for 6 percent. With inflation, Chinese households earn close to nothing on bank deposits. “Interest rate policy has limited the ability of households to earn income from their savings, and reduced the pressure on poorly performing companies to improve,” warned Andrew Batson and Joyce Poon, analysts at Beijing-based economic consulting firm GK Dragonomics, in a May report.

The government is taking steps to reform the hukou system. It’s expanding health-care and pension plans so Chinese need not save to protect themselves from catastrophe. Regulators are giving banks more flexibility to set market-based interest rates and encouraging lending to the service sector, which is creating jobs. It will take all this and more to unleash Chinese spending power.”

via China’s Savers Block the Consumer Economy – Businessweek.

10/07/2013

Growth of China’s Service Sector Slows

BusinessWeek: “The latest less-than-encouraging news from China’s economy: Service-sector companies are seeing lackluster business, according to two separate surveys released July 3. That follows disappointing news showing China’s manufacturing growth is also slowing, announced just days earlier.

The opening of the K11 Art Mall in Shanghai, China, on June 28, 2013

A government survey by China’s National Bureau of Statistics and Federation of Logistics and Purchasing of 1,200 nonmanufacturing companies in 27 industries, including retail, catering, construction, and transportation, showed business activity losing steam, with a reading of 53.9 in June, down from 54.3 the previous month (a reading above 50 shows expansion). A separate private survey conducted by HSBC and Markit Economics, covering 400 private service-sector companies, showed business basically unchanged, at 51.3 in June, compared with 51.2 the month before.

“The underlying growth momentum is likely to be softening for services sectors, along with the slowdown of manufacturing growth,” warned Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC (HSBA:LN), in a statement released July 3.

This is not good news for China’s new leaders, who have recently reiterated a national goal of economic rebalancing. That means moving from an emphasis on investment to one more reliant on consumption, with a crucial need for a bigger, stronger service economy. China’s service sector, now at 44.6 percent of the economy, is up 2.7 percentage points from 12 months ago. Still, that’s well below the 60 percent of GDP common in most developed countries, reported China’s official Xinhua News Agency on May 29.”

via Growth of China’s Service Sector Slows – Businessweek.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/china-needs-to-rebalance-her-economy/

19/06/2013

The yuan: The cheapest thing going is gone

The Economist: “After enduring a decade of criticism for its weakness, China’s currency now looks uncomfortably strong

TEN years ago, the yuan made its debut as a global economic bugbear. In June 2003, America’s then treasury secretary, John Snow, publicly encouraged China to loosen a policy under which its currency was pegged at 8.28 to the dollar. The next month four senators wrote an angry letter urging Mr Snow to investigate China for “currency manipulation”. The country was intentionally undervaluing its currency, argued Charles Schumer, a Democratic senator for New York. “The result is that everything they sell to other countries is the cheapest thing going.”

A decade later, Mr Schumer and other senators are still bashing the yuan: eight of them re-introduced a bill last week that would slap duties on currency manipulators. But much else has changed. Now allowed to float by 1% a day on either side of a reference rate set each morning by the central bank, the yuan closed trading on May 27th at 6.12 to the dollar, 35% stronger than its June 2003 rate. It has risen more against the dollar since March than it rose in the whole of last year, and its climb against Japan’s currency has been even steeper. Since November, when the markets began to anticipate dramatic monetary easing in Japan, the yuan has gained over 20% against a weakened yen.

China’s competitiveness on world markets depends not only on the price of its currency but also on the price of its goods and workers at home. The Bank for International Settlements calculates a “real” exchange rate for 61 economies that takes account of inflation differences between them. Since 2010 China’s real exchange rate, weighted by trade, has risen faster than any other, with the sole exception of Venezuela’s.

The price of labour is also rising faster in China than in its principal trading partners. The Economist has calculated an alternative “real” exchange rate, weighted by trade with America, the euro area and Japan, which takes account of unit labour costs in all four economies. By this measure, China’s real exchange rate has strengthened by almost 50% since Messrs Snow and Schumer began their currency-bashing ten years ago. If the yuan was the cheapest thing going back then, now its cheapness has all but gone. Some economists, such as Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research, even wonder if the yuan is now overvalued.”

via The yuan: The cheapest thing going is gone | The Economist.

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