Posts tagged ‘Business’

09/03/2013

* Some Chinese Seek a Divorce to Avoid Real Estate Tax

NYT: “When the Chinese government announced new curbs on property prices this month, homeowners bombarded social networking sites with complaints. They formed long lines at property bureaus to register to sell their homes before the restrictions went into effect.

And some couples went even further: they filed for divorce.

Divorce filings shot up here and in other big cities across China this past week after rumors spread that one way to avoid the new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales was to separate from a spouse, at least on paper.

The surge in divorce filings is the latest indication of how volatile an issue real estate has become in China in the past decade and how resistant people are to additional taxes.

Worried that housing prices are spiraling out of control and threatening social stability, the central government regularly rolls out measures aimed at damping demand and weeding out speculators.

Then home buyers, sellers, property developers and even local governments — which are typically heavily dependent on land sales for income — try to find ways to get around the restrictions.

“They always do this,” said Du Jinsong, a property analyst in Hong Kong for Credit Suisse. “When they implement new measures, people are always trying to circumvent the rules.”

China’s housing market has been one of the prime engines of economic growth in the past decade, and recently a sharp upturn in prices has reignited fears about inequality and a housing bubble.

On March 1, just days before the opening of China’s annual legislative session, the powerful State Council, which is led by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, announced a series of new property measures that analysts say unsettled the housing market.

In its statement, the State Council, or cabinet, said that local governments should strictly enforce an earlier rule that ordered people selling a secondary home to pay a 20 percent tax on the profit.

Almost immediately, housing administration bureaus and real estate trading centers in big cities were flooded with people hoping to sell their apartments before the restrictions took effect. (Most local governments have not yet announced a deadline.)”

via Some Chinese Seek a Divorce to Avoid Real Estate Tax – NYTimes.com.

09/03/2013

* Where Have China’s Workers Gone?

Bloomberg: “Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are taking over China’s leadership at a time when growth has slackened and labor issues have become more complex.

China's Disappearing Surplus Labor

Reports that businesses such as Foxconn Technology Group are raising wages and struggling to recruit workers in China have intensified debate over just how many surplus workers the country still has. Meanwhile, a boom in college-educated Chinese has raised concerns of an impending threat to U.S. competitiveness. These seemingly disparate concerns about China’s labor force are actually linked by common underlying factors, with critical implications for China’s ability to remain the growth engine of the world.

China’s large pool of surplus labor has fueled its rapid industrial growth. Now this “demographic dividend” may be almost exhausted, and its economy reaching a Lewis turning point: a shift named after the Nobel prize-winning Arthur Lewis, who was the first to describe how poor economies can develop by transferring surplus labor from agriculture to the more productive industrial sector until the point when surplus labor disappears, wages begin to rise and growth slows.

Citing periodic labor shortages and unskilled wages that have risen since 2003, prominent Chinese economists suggest that time has come. The International Monetary Fund disagrees and puts the turning point much later — between 2020 and 2025, based on a model analyzing labor productivity. A third view is that China’s surplus labor is still plentiful, given that about 40 percent of the labor force is still underutilized in the rural sector, mostly in agriculture, which accounts for only 10 percent of gross domestic product.

Mobility Restrictions

In China, many market imperfections impede the mobility and use of labor. Thus, actual availability may fall far short of what is potentially available. The hukou residency system that restricts migrant workers from accessing services where they are employed is the most glaring example of this kind of imperfection. Less obvious is the extent to which China’s rural- support policies, including subsidy programs, may be encouraging workers to stay in agriculture longer than they should.

Surplus workers may not be in agriculture as in the original Lewis model but in smaller towns, underemployed at depressed wages. The result is that China has the highest rural- urban income disparity in the world.

Why don’t these workers move to more productive jobs in more dynamic settings? In formal terms, it is because their “reservation wage” has increased — that is, the minimum wage they demand to move is much greater than their current wage, because for a generation that didn’t experience the hardships of the Mao Zedong era, the monetary and emotional costs of relocation have risen. Many workers won’t move to major cities that lack affordable housing. They may also have rights to land that can’t be sold for full market value — thus, staying in familiar surroundings is now a more attractive proposition.

If recent decades saw a huge migration that “brought workers to where the jobs are” along the coast, the future may mean the reverse, involving “bringing the jobs to where the workers are” with profound implications for China’s economic geography.

In lesser known provinces such as Henan, with a country- sized population of 100 million, large numbers of young workers seek factory positions but are unwilling to relocate to seemingly foreign places in coastal China. As China becomes more consumption-oriented with rising incomes and urbanization, the center of economic gravity will naturally move inland where two- thirds of the population resides.

College Graduates

Just as young workers are demanding more satisfying jobs, they also increasingly feel entitled to a college education. Government policy has expanded access to higher education. From 2000 to 2010, the percentage of college-age cohorts enrolled in universities more than tripled in China, a rate of increase far above that of India, Malaysia and Indonesia. China wants to produce 200 million college graduates by 2030; they will make up more than 20 percent of the projected labor force, more than double the current ratio. The push to expand higher education means the number of college-educated has leapfrogged — and excessively so — ahead of those holding only vocational or junior college degrees.

These college-educated workers are unwilling to settle for factory work and compete for office-based positions. College graduates are four times as likely to be unemployed as urban residents of the same age with only basic education, even as factories go begging for semi-skilled workers. Given the underdeveloped service sector and still-large roles of manufacturing and construction, China has created a serious mismatch between skills of the labor force and available jobs.

As the economy moves up the value chain, substituting more capital-intensive manufacturing for unskilled labor-intensive assembly, a shortage of semi-skilled workers is appearing. But the excessive growth of college graduates has outpaced the structural transition and prematurely shifted the labor supply from semi-skilled manufacturing workers to more knowledge- intensive service professionals. More emphasis on vocational training and industry-specific engineering skills will help China fill its immediate need for manufacturing workers.”

Yukon Huang and Clare Lynch are, respectively, a senior associate and a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. The opinions expressed are their own.

via Where Have China’s Workers Gone? – Bloomberg.

04/03/2013

* China: The next phase of growth

China Policy Institute: “As the new Chinese leadership takes over, their biggest economic challenge remains generating growth for another 30 years. In addition to re-balancing the economy and stimulating more productivity, a key aspect will be the re-defining the role of the state. After over 30 years of marketisation and reform, China remains a mixed picture of state-led policies and a growing number of facially neutral laws with some exemptions for state-owned enterprises.

lyuIn addition, the state-owned commercial banks continue to benefit from official “financial repression” policies, such as the preservation of a spread between lending rates and deposit rates. It helps to generate margins for banks and facilitate their recapitalisation. This policy also enables the state-owned commercial banks to continue to support government policies ranging from fiscal stimulus to supporting state-owned enterprises, though not without cost to overall economic growth as financial repression distorts the allocation of capital.

The high levels of capital formation (some 40% of GDP) in the past two decades and the inefficient allocation of capital away from more productive private firms are worrying. The Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011-15) plans to re-balance the economy towards greater domestic demand and less of a reliance on exports. A key part of the plan is to increase consumption and other parts such as more urbanization and services development would support investment in developing larger urban areas where migrants can settle and government services can be dispersed more efficiently.

This plan in actuality has an implicit 30 year time horizon as these policies of migration, urban development and boosting consumption cannot be achieved in a short time period. Unless China can re-orient its growth model including towards more efficient investments by private firms, then it could find it difficult to sustain a strong growth rate. Part of this challenge will include creating a more secure welfare state.”

via China Policy Institute Blog » The next phase of growth.

01/03/2013

* China’s billionaires on rise

China Daily: “China has had more billionaires created by its stock markets this year than in the United States – 212 compared with 211 – a new survey revealed on Thursday.

China's Rich List – The Inside Story

According to the latest Hurun Global Rich List 2013, there were 1,453 people in the world with personal wealth of $1 billion or more at the end of January.

Another significant sign of more wealth being created in the East came with figures showing Asia was home to the highest number of billionaires, with 608, followed by 440 from North America and 324 from Europe, said Hurun researchers.

Among individual countries, the US and the Greater China area dominated with 408 and 357 respectively, followed by Russia, Germany and India.

Between them, the US and China now have half of all billionaires on the planet.

Moscow, with 76 billionaires, is the billionaire capital of the world, followed by New York, Hong Kong, Beijing and London, according to the report.

Mexican telecom czar Carlos Slim, 73, was ranked as the “Richest Man on the Planet” with a personal fortune of $66 billion, followed by US investor Warren Buffett with $58 billion in wealth.

Founder of fashion brand Zara, Amancio Ortega of Spain, shoots into the top three with $55 billion in wealth.

Real estate, telecommunications, media, technology and retail were the most common sources of wealth, the report added.”

via China’s billionaires on rise |Economy |chinadaily.com.cn.

01/03/2013

* China plans bond overhaul to fund $6 trillion urbanization

Reuters: “China plans major bond market reform to raise the money the ruling Communist Party needs for a 40 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) urbanization program to buoy economic growth and close a chasm between the country’s urban rich and rural poor.

A man walks past a construction site for a new stadium in Mentougou district, suburb of Beijing February 28, 2013. REUTERS-Kim Kyung-Hoon

The Party aims to bring 400 million people to cities over the next decade as the new leadership of president-in-waiting Xi Jinping and premier-designate Li Keqiang seek to turn China into a wealthy world power with economic growth generated by an affluent consumer class.

The urban development would be funded by a major expansion of bond markets, sources with leadership ties, and a senior executive at one of China’s “Big Four” state banks, who was formerly at the central bank, told Reuters.

“The urbanization drive will push the domestic capital market liberalization agenda,” the senior bank executive said on condition of anonymity. “Urbanization is Li Keqiang’s big project. He has to get it right and he is willing to pursue innovation to make it a success.”

Set to be confirmed as premier at the end of the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, which opens next week, Li must find ways to pay for the urban development that he has made a policy priority.

Central and local governments, as well as bank loans, will fund the costs, the sources said. But, sweeping reforms to create a fully-functioning municipal bond market, boost corporate and high-yield bond issuance and actively steer foreign capital into the sector, are crucial to raising the sums of money China will need, they added.

Despite its ranking as the second-largest economy globally after three decades of stellar growth, China remains an aspiring middle-income country riven with inequality and dependent on state-backed investment.

“If we continue to walk down the path of government spending, it’ll be like wearing new shoes, but walking the old road,” a source with leadership ties said, requesting anonymity to avoid repercussions for speaking to foreign media without authorization.”

via Exclusive: China plans bond overhaul to fund $6 trillion urbanization – sources | Reuters.

18/02/2013

* Outsourcers turn to China to plug India’s skills gap

The Times: “India is running out of the skilled engineers needed to man its giant software industry, forcing companies to hire staff overseas, especially from China, one of the industry’s pioneers has warned.

An Indian employee at a call centre provides service support to international customers

Kris Gopalakrishnan, the co-founder and executive chairman of Infosys, said that the outsourcing sector was facing a manpower shortage. India, he said, was not producing enough properly trained engineering graduates to meet expanding global demand for its services.

The country may have a population of more than 1.2 billion people, but the dearth of trained graduates is driving up salaries in its IT industry by 15 per cent a year. That, in turn, is eroding the sub-continent’s global competitiveness and forcing companies such as Infosys, Tata Consulting Services and Wipro to invest in finding foreign workers.

“A lot of the tertiary education in India is done by private colleges and there are significant quality issues there,” Mr Gopalakrishnan said.

India produces about 700,000 engineering graduates every year, but of these only about 25 per cent are sufficiently well trained to be considered for a job in IT, Mr Gopalakrishnan said.

Infosys — whose customers include BP, GlaxoSmithKline and Tesco — was planning to treble its workforce in China from 3,500 to more than 10,000 to help cope with constraints at home, where most of its 155,000 staff work.

“Apart from China, there are not many countries in the world where we can recruit large enough numbers,” Mr Gopalakrishnan added. Infosys, which generated revenues of $7 billion last year, already operates large software development and outsourcing operations in Shanghai, Dalian, Beijing, Hangzhou and Jiaxing. The wages in China are higher than in India but are rising at a more modest pace of about 10 per cent annually.

Infosys has also been expanding its overseas presence in other low-cost countries, such as the Philippines, and has explored opportunities in Egypt.

In expanding fields such as data analytics, there are only about 50,000 engineers in India with the right programming skills. Demand is at least five times that number, according to Heidrick & Struggles, a recruitment company.

India’s software and outsourcing industry employs about three million people directly, an increase of 188,000 from a year ago. It generated $75.8 billion in exports in 2012-13, making it India’s largest single export industry, and is continuing to grow at more than 10 per cent a year even as India’s overall rate of economic growth has nearly halved over the past three years, to just over 5 per cent.

Mr Gopalakrishnan said that as well as hiring overseas, Infosys was trying to improve the quality of education in India by funding teacher training programmes at 350 engineering colleges. The group has also built a private campus in the southern city of Mysore capable of training 14,000 students.

“We will have to continue to invest heavily in education and training,” he said.”

via Outsourcers turn to China to plug India’s skills gap | The Times.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/information-technology/

07/02/2013

* NTPC Share Sale Oversubscribed

WSJ: “The Indian government sold 9.5% of power producer NTPC Ltd. on Thursday, which will raise around 114 billion rupees ($2.1 billion) as it seeks to plug its fiscal deficit by selling stakes in state companies.

The NTPC sale followed the successful auction Friday of a 10% stake in oil producer Oil India Ltd. The government raised more than 31 billion rupees in that sale, which attracted strong demand from foreign investors.”

via NTPC Share Sale Oversubscribed – WSJ.com.

03/02/2013

* The slow boat back from China

Another article about the ‘return’ of manufacturing from China; this time to Britain.

Sunday Times: “Janan Leo had waited what felt like for ever to find a British shoemaker to help bring production of her ballet pumps to Britain from China.

Janan Leo makes ballet pumps

When Leo launched her company, Cocorose London, in 2007 the savings offered by cheap Chinese labour outweighed the benefits of British production. In recent months, however, her costs have gone up about 30% because of spiralling wages and raw materials prices in the Far East and rising shipping fees.

“In the early days we had the bags for our shoes made in London, but it was far too expensive so we sent everything offshore,” said Leo, 32, who had sales of £1m last year. “Now the cost advantages are less clear-cut.”

In 2011 she approached a family-owned factory in Northamptonshire, near the headquarters of the renowned Church’s and Loake shoe brands, to make a new range of pumps.

At first, the supplier was unsure. “They were worried about sourcing materials and the cost of the equipment needed just to make the samples. These aren’t problems I’ve ever had in China.”

The deal went ahead and Cocorose’s second luxury collection is now on sale. “British manufacturing is still not as cheap as in the Far East but the upsides more than offset the costs. Customers in Japan and South Korea are going mad for the British heritage [and] the quality is outstanding.”

It started as a trickle, but now a steady stream of small firms are bringing some or all of their manufacturing home as the gap between Chinese and domestic production costs narrows. Chinese pay has doubled over the past decade.

Small firms are also finding that supply chains stretching from Beijing to Britain are vulnerable to disruption. More than a fifth said cashflow complications from delayed orders had hurt their businesses, according to research by EEF, the manufacturers’ group.

“Companies in sectors as diverse as clothing, components and computer equipment are all weighing up whether to bring production back home,” said Simon Nicholson, an international trade adviser at Barclays. “It’s driven by cost and delivery, but firms are also catching on to the idea of Britain as a brand with real cachet in foreign markets.”

Yet factories here may be ill- equipped to meet this growing demand. “British firms have been quietly starting to bring contracts back home since about 2009, but it is taking time for them to find the right suppliers, and for producers to buy the plant and machinery needed,” said Lee Hopley, chief economist at the EEF.

Andy Loveland’s business, Earlyrider, has used a Chinese manufacturer to make its wooden Balance Bikes for small children since its launch in 2006. But Oxfordshire-based Loveland, 41, wanted a British company to make his latest product, a toddlers’ ride-on toy called the Spherovelo.

“We needed to work closely with an industrial designer and to control production because the Spherovelo is completely original — and, unlike our Balance Bikes, labour would be only 15% of overall production costs.”

Loveland’s experience with Inject Plastics, the Plymouth factory he commissioned to make the tools and produce the Spherovelo, was mixed. “The tooling was supposed to take three months, but in the end it was seven. It meant we had to let down a key customer, which was devastating.”

Inject went into administration but in December it was bought by Magmatic, the business behind the Trunki ride-on suitcase for children. Rob Law, Trunki’s founder, had moved production from China to the factory seven months earlier.

He said: “It was a long-held ambition to manufacture in Britain — for ourselves and other companies, such as Spherovelo — and shipping was going through the roof.” Magmatic’s door-to-door transport costs rose 58% in the first five months of 2012.

Since the move to Britain, Trunki’s lead times have shrunk from 120 days to 30. As a result, the firm holds less stock, and pressure on cashflow has been eased. “Best of all, we saved jobs and created new ones,” said Law.

Andrew Cock has also opted to take manufacturing into his own hands. In May his £30m-turnover company, Multipanel UK, will open a factory near Dover making panels for road signs and shop fascias. The £5m facility will use Taiwanese machinery and British recycled plastic to make about 60% of the firm’s output. The rest will continue to be made in China for sale to Asian customers.

“We took the decision a couple of years ago when Chinese costs started rising,” said Cock, 51, who reckons that labour has increased 30% over 18 months, while raw materials are up about 15% after currency movements are included.

“It’s not just a financial decision, it’s about quality too,” added Exeter-based Cock. “We want to win business by making the best product at the least cost. We also think that cutting our products’ carbon footprint will open the door to big corporate customers with a corporate social responsibility agenda.”

Multipanel’s investment has so far been funded from cashflow, but not all manufacturers in loan-starved Britain have access to expansion capital.

“We are working with lots of producers that have downsized during the recession but are now being asked to make small, high-quality batches,” said David Wright of Growth Accelerator, a government-backed advisory service. “They have the skills to adapt to new jobs but they lack the cash to scale up.””

via The slow boat back from China | The Sunday Times.

See also:

22/01/2013

* Chidambaram: See ‘First Green Shoots’ of Recovery

WSJ: “India’s finance minister said the “first green shoots” of the country’s economic revival are evident but growth isn’t expected to surpass 5.7% this year, the bottom end of the government’s revised growth target.

English: India's Minister of Finance Palaniapp...

English: India’s Minister of Finance Palaniappan Chidambaram is the special guest at a plenary session titled Risks to India’s Economy in a Post-Crisis World held at the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit 2008 in New Delhi, 16-18 November 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In Hong Kong to meet investors ahead of the budget presentation for fiscal 2013, P. Chidambaram told reporters that growth next year should be in the upper ranges of the 6%-7% target and that the economy should return to its potential growth rate, around 8%, by the following year.”

via Chidambaram: See ‘First Green Shoots’ of Recovery – WSJ.com.

22/01/2013

* Asian Buyers Snap Up Half of New London Homes

WSJ: “If you’ve just moved into a newly built apartment in central London, don’t be perplexed if your neighbors speak mostly Chinese.

Market-cooling measures in Asia have helped fuel interest in London’s real estate market—long a popular destination for property buyers on the prowl, says property consultancy Knight Frank. Last year, overseas buyers spent $3.5 billion on apartments undergoing construction in central London, up 22% from the year earlier.

Together, buyers from Singapore and Hong Kong snapped up nearly 40% of all such apartments in central London. Adding in buyers from Malaysia and mainland China, Asian buyers accounted for roughly half of all purchases. By comparison, U.K. buyers made up just 27% of all purchases of apartments under construction, according to Knight Frank’s latest figures. Such figures were generally consistent with those seen in 2011.

Among overseas buyers, more than two-thirds bought for investment purposes, says Knight Frank, while another third said they were motivated to buy for a child enrolled at a local university.”

via Asian Buyers Snap Up Half of New London Homes – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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