The key force driving the increasing communal polarisation in Uttar Pradesh is the scramble for Dalit votes in an attempt to weaken the Bahujan Samaj Party and deter Muslims from rallying behind it.
This strategy was evolved, and implemented, during the last Lok Sabha elections. But the competition to woo Dalits has gathered momentum ahead of bypolls to 12 assembly seats, five of which are in the western section of the state, which is often billed as the “wild west” of the Hindi heartland.
As the Indian Express reported, more than 600 incidents of communal violence have taken place in the state since May.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s stake in the bypolls, which have yet to be scheduled, is enormous. Eleven of the 12 constituencies here had BJP MLAs, all of whom were elected to the Lok Sabha, as was the party’s ally, Apna Dal leader Anupriya Patel. The results will help measure the durability of the Modi wave, and its possible impact on the UP assembly elections in early 2017. The verdict from UP could well determine the chances of Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a second successive term in the 2019 polls.
The need to cobble together an electoral majority is driving political parties to resort to communal mobilisation. Local disputes over land, civic amenities, and exploitative gender relations have been given a communal hue and magnified to portray a monolith Hindu community arrayed against the Muslims.
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