Posts tagged ‘economy’

25/04/2012

* S&P cuts India’s outlook from stable to negative; markets hit

A logo of the Standard & Poor's AA- rating

A logo of the Standard & Poor’s AA- rating (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Times of India: “Ratings agency Standard & Poors on Wednesday cut India’s outlook to negative from stable, citing its large fiscal deficit and expectations of only modest progress on reforms given political constraints, battering stocks, bonds and the rupee.

The lowered outlook jeopardises India’s long-term rating of BBB-, which is the lowest investment grade rating. “The outlook revision reflects our view of at least a one-in-three likelihood of a downgrade if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting,” S&P credit analyst Takahira Ogawa said in a note.”

via S&P cuts Indias outlook from stable to negative; markets hit – The Times of India.

What would you expect, given recent decisions in India, such as that to retroactive review foreign takeovers or mergers and apply taxes or penalties retroactively is not helping in foreign investment. While China has been assiduously wooing everyone, see https://chindia-alert.org/2012/12/31/question-who-did-china-woo-in-2012/ – plus for April a senior Chinese minister/politician either visited or hosted the following: Caribbean, Kazakhstan, Britain, Cyprus, Brunei, Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Poland, Thailand, Japan, North Korea, Timor-Leste, Colombia, South Sudan; Indian ministers/politicians and ministers are firmly ensconced at home!

22/04/2012

* Time to Start Thinking by Edward Luce

Time to Start Thinking is a book destined to spark debate among liberals and conservatives alike. Drawing on his decades of exceptional journalism and his connections in Washington and around the world, Luce advances a carefully constructed and controversial argument that America is losing its position at the top of the world’s pecking order. He supports this argument with his interviews with key players in politics and business, from U.S. senators, senior White House officials, Fortune 100 chief executives, and many others, including Bill Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen.

Luce’s central thesis is that America is sleepwalking into economic and geopolitical decline. In a tightly argued book, Luce turns his attention to a number of critical issues set to determine America’s future: the changing structure of the U.S. economy, the continued polarization of American politics, the debilitating effect of the “permanent election campaign,” the challenges involved in the overhaul of the country’s public education system, the desperate situation facing America’s middle class, and the health of American innovation in technology and business.

His conclusion investigates America’s dwindling options in a world where the pace is increasingly being set elsewhere. Luce turns particular attention to Washington—he identifies the city’s insidious lobbying culture, the politicians’ constant need to fund raise, and the lack of bipartisanship as key stumbling blocks to an effectively functioning political system.

As distressing as it is important, Time to Start Thinking presents an America in economic, social, and political crisis. Those unwilling to face up to this reality may be tempted to blindly trust in American exceptionalism—but Luce argues that it is American pragmatism that will be the key to securing America’s future, if it is to be secured.

via Time to Start Thinking by Edward Luce.

Related article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/books/review/time-to-start-thinking-by-edward-luce.html?pagewanted=all

From my limited understanding of Americans, I suspect that more non-Americans than Americans will bother to read this book. Which will be a great shame.

19/04/2012

* HSBC issue of renminbi bonds in London

China Daily: “George Osborne, British chancellor of the exchequer, announced an initiative on Wednesday that reaffirms his support of London becoming an offshore yuan center. That came as the banking and financial services company HSBC Holdings Plc introduced the first yuan-denominated bond to be offered in London.

Meanwhile, the City of London Corp, which governs an area in central London, published a report showing that 109 billion yuan $17.3 billion worth of customer and interbank yuan deposits were held in the city at the end of December. “This is a significant moment,” Osborne said as he introduced a policy named “London as a center for offshore renminbi business”. “This builds on the progress London has already made toward becoming the Western hub for renminbi. “Today’s event emphasizes that we are not prepared to let anyone steal a march on us in terms of new products and new markets. We are the natural home in the West for those who want to invest in China’s economic success story.

“Osbornes comments came after HSBC announced the introduction of a 3-year yuan bond. HSBC’s term sheet for the bond issuance implied it was worth at least 500 million yuan, Reuters has reported. The proposed issuance comes amid reforms Beijing has made to advance its plans to make the yuan an international currency. London is working to make itself into a center for offshore yuan trade following an agreement that was reached between Britain and China last year.

via HSBC issue of renminbi bonds in London real|Europe|chinadaily.com.cn.

18/04/2012

* Who’s Returning to India and Why?

WSJ: “A recent front page article in the New York Times documented the migration of second generation Americans back to their ancestral countries, including India, China, Brazil and Russia.

India’s faltering growth may be disappointing, but it’s still much more rapid than the continued stagnation of the U.S. economy. In certain fields, at least there are still opportunities to be seized in India by those with a taste for adventure.

Labor economists call this kind of migration the “reverse brain drain.” Ironically, the migrants are often the kids or sometimes grandkids of the original “brain drain,” skilled workers and professionals who left India and other developing countries in the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s to seek opportunities in the booming U.S. economy.

In fact, a more accurate term for the highly mobile skilled workers of today, favored by labor economists, is “brain circulation.” These people are agile and will seek out opportunities wherever they exist. So if things don’t work out in India, they might return to the U.S. or try their luck somewhere else.”

via Economics Journal: Who’s Returning to India and Why? – India Real Time – WSJ.

15/04/2012

* US says China making progress on currency, urges more

Reuters: “A senior White House aide said on Saturday that China had made some progress toward easing restrictions on its currency but stressed the United States wanted to see more actions taken.

At a briefing with reporters in Colombia, where President Barack Obama is attending a summit with Latin American leaders, White House adviser Ben Rhodes said the Obama administration was closely reviewing Beijing’s announcement that it was doubling the size of its yuan’s trading band against the dollar. “It comes in the continuum of us wanting to see the Chinese take more of these steps to see their currency appreciate to come in line with market value,” Rhodes said. “They’ve made some progress. We’d like to see more movement.”

“The Peoples Bank of China said on Saturday it would allow the yuan to rise or fall 1 percent from a mid-point every day, effective Monday, compared to its previous 0.5 percent limit. Currency experts said the move reflected a belief in Beijing that the currency is near its equilibrium level and that China’s economy, although cooling, is sturdy enough to handle long-promised structural reforms.

China’s currency is a sensitive topic in the United States, where many business leaders believe an undervalued yuan gives Chinese exports an unfair price advantage on global markets.”

via U.S. says China making progress on currency, urges more | Reuters.

04/04/2012

* Premier Wen Appeals to Shake Up Bank System

Wall Street Journal: “Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told a national audience on Tuesday that Chinas state-controlled banks are a “monopoly” that must be broken up, in a blunt appeal for a shake-up of the creaky financial system of the worlds No. 2 economy.

温家宝

温家宝 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In an evening broadcast on state-run China National Radio, Mr. Wen told an audience of business leaders that Chinas tightly controlled banking system needs to change. “Let me be frank. Our banks earn profit too easily. Why? Because a small number of large banks have a monopoly,” said Mr. Wen, according to the transcript of the program on the broadcasters website. “To break the monopoly, we must allow private capital to flow into the finance sector.

Mr. Wen’s comments tap into a rich vein of popular anger against Chinas biggest banks that has been building in recent months online and in the media. The backlash was initially prompted by frustration at what has been perceived as banks’ payments of low interest rates on deposits and indiscriminate levying of fees. It has worsened in recent weeks as lenders posted record profits, even as the economy slows and some companies struggle to access credit.”

via Wen Appeals to Shake Up Bank System – WSJ.com.

So it’s not only Western, capitalist banks that are in people’s bad books!

22/03/2012

* China factory activity falters, markets take fright

Reuters: “China’s economic momentum slowed in March as factory activity shrank for a fifth straight month, leaving investors fretting about the risks to global growth and anticipating fresh policy support from Beijing. The HSBC flash purchasing managers index, the earliest indicator of Chinas industrial activity, fell back to 48.1 from February’s four-month high of 49.6. New orders sank to a four-month low, an expected rebound in export orders failed to emerge and new hiring slumped to a two-year low.

“With new export orders sluggish and domestic demand still softening, China’s slow down has yet to finish. This calls for further easing to come from Beijing,” HSBC chief China economist, Qu Hongbin, said in a statement. …

Broad-based weakness in the five key components that generate the headline index level surprised analysts, particularly those who had anticipated a clear cut rebound in factory activity in March after the Lunar New Year disrupted output in the first two months and distorted the data. “This data suggests there’s something more profound at work, that it’s not just a Lunar New Year problem and that it’s not just affecting exports, but domestic demand,” Tim Condon, chief economist and head of Asian research at ING in Singapore, said. …”

via China factory activity falters, markets take fright | Reuters.

22/03/2012

* Outrage over report that India lost $210bn in coal scam

BBC News: “There was outrage in India’s parliament after a draft report by government auditors estimated India lost $210bn by selling coalfields too cheaply. Opposition politicians accused the government of “looting the country” by selling coalfields to companies without competitive bidding. Private and state companies benefited from the allocations between 2004 and 2010, says a Times of India report. …

… the Times of India, quoting the CAG draft, says the $210bn (£133bn) figure is a “conservative estimate, since it takes into account prices for the lowest grade of coal and not the median grade”.

India is one of the largest producers of coal in the world.

This is just the latest in a series of financial scandals to hit the Congress-led government and the revelations caused such anger among opposition politicians that both houses of parliament had to be temporarily adjourned.”

via BBC News – Outrage over report that India lost $210bn in coal scam.

16/03/2012

* India: ‘Need for urgent reforms as corruption, civil society activism delay decisions’

The Hindu: “The government on Thursday gave a clarion call for urgent economic reforms while conceding that corruption scandals and compulsions of coalition politics have slowed down the decision-making process, as a result of which it is faced with fiscal slippages in 2011-12.

Making a strong pitch for raising tax resources and higher compliance, the Economic Survey 2011-12, tabled in Parliament on Thursday in tandem with the Reserve Bank in its mid-quarter policy review, expressed serious concern over the deteriorating state of government finances and stressed the need for fiscal consolidation if inflation is to be tamed.

Highlighting inflation and fiscal slippages as among the major challenges confronting the economy, the Survey said a slackening in the pace of reforms and high-profile corruption scandals along with “welcome civil society activism” have led to delay in decision-making by civil servants.

Tabled in the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the Survey said “coalition politics and federal considerations played their roles in holding up economic reforms on several fronts, ranging from diesel and LPG pricing to FDI in retail” and also pointed to the economic slowdown partly resulting from domestic issues “like pressures of democratic politics.”

In concert with the apex bank on the need for fiscal consolidation, the Survey said: “The principal way in which this has to be achieved is by raising tax-GDP ratio and cutting down wasteful expenditures.”

The Survey noted that the dismal economic performance this fiscal should be a “wake-up call” but, at the same time, expressed cautious optimism that the GDP growth in 2012-13 would go up to 7.6 per cent following a moderation in inflation and consequent low interest rates.

“The growth rate of real GDP [is expected] to pick up to 7.6 per cent [plus or minus 0.25 per cent] in 2012-13 and faster beyond that,” the Survey said and noted that economic expansion this fiscal would moderate to a three-year low at 6.9 per cent. Arguing out a case for fiscal consolidation, tax reforms, opening of the multi-brand retail to global chains, freeing of diesel prices and the need for honesty among political leaders and policy-makers, the Survey said that although government’s fiscal deficit was likely to significantly go off the target of 4.6 per cent of GDP this fiscal, it would narrow down to 4.1 per cent in 2012-13 on the strength of a pick-up in economic activities. After tabling the pre-budget document, the Finance Minister said: “It [the Survey] charts economic development and challenges faced during the fiscal year. It is a vital input for the preparation of the budget.”

At a press briefing later during the day, Chief Economic Adviser Kaushik Basu, prime architect of the document, said growth in manufacturing and agriculture sectors were likely to be key drivers in the next fiscal. “There could be one more year of a slight slowing down of investment and saving rates. We expect… rates to pick up handsomely after that,” he said.”

via The Hindu : News / National : ‘Need for urgent reforms as corruption, civil society activism delay decisions’.

Related page: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/indian-tensions/

14/03/2012

* Stephen Roach on the consumer opportunity in China

McKinsey: “Focusing on exports to the world’s second-largest economy will help the United States generate growth and jobs, says Morgan Stanley Asia’s former non-executive chairman.

A year ago, the National People’s Congress enacted China’s 12th five-year plan, which included three main building blocks: a greater focus on jobs, urbanization to boost wages, and financing a social safety net that encourages families to spend rather than save. Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University and former nonexecutive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, says that this document’s implementation is marking a major shift in China’s model, away from exports and investment and toward internal, private consumption. Therein lies a huge opportunity for other nations to benefit from the emergence of the world’s largest consumer population.

China, currently the biggest and most rapidly growing US export market, is well on its way to “create a consumption dynamic that will outstrip the growth of any consumer market in the world,” Roach asserts—“and shame on us if we’re not a part of that.” In this video, Roach explains how China must turn to internal demand to drive economic development and prosperity and why improving the testy China–US bilateral relationship is so critical for the economic future of both countries. McKinsey Publishing’s Rik Kirkland conducted the interview at the World Economic Forum, in Davos, in January 2012.”

via Stephen Roach on the consumer opportunity in China – McKinsey Quarterly – Retail & Consumer Goods – Sectors & Regions.

Related page: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/consumerism-blossoms/

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