Posts tagged ‘global financial crisis’

21/10/2014

China’s growth slowest since global crisis, annual target at risk | Reuters

China grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis in the September quarter and risks missing its official target for the first time in 15 years, adding to concerns the world’s second-largest economy is becoming a drag on global growth.

Employees work at a shoe factory in Lishui, Zhejiang province, in this January 24, 2013 file photo.  REUTERS/Lang Lang/Files

A pick-up in factory output and government confidence that the labor market remains stable were offset by further slowing in the property sector, and economists remained divided on whether or not authorities would step in with major stimulus measures such as interest rate cuts.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, the weakest rate since the first quarter of 2009.

That was slightly above the 7.2 percent forecast by analysts but slower than 7.5 percent in the second quarter, and even then some economists were surprised.

“It’s hard to square the GDP print with the industrial production numbers for the quarter,” said Andrew Polk, economist at the Conference Board in Beijing, one of the more pessimistic research houses on the Chinese economy.

“There are confusing things going on. You have credit growing at the slowest pace since 2002. You have real estate investment slowing on a monthly basis and you have industrial production averaging slightly above 8 percent on a quarterly basis, slightly down from Q2. With that being the most reliable component of GDP on a quarterly basis, 7.3 percent seems a bit high to me.”

via China’s growth slowest since global crisis, annual target at risk | Reuters.

19/06/2014

Plotting the Shape of India’s Recovery – India Real Time – WSJ

Optimism abounds in India following Narendra Modi’s unexpectedly strong election victory. It’s still early days, but the new government’s priorities and coherence are a breath of fresh air.

As India’s economy gets back on its feet, one question is whether the  recovery will be shaped like a U, a V or a square root. In other words: Can growth rebound as quickly and strongly as it did after the global financial crisis?

Unfortunately, the answer is no: India’s recovery will be gradual and uneven, at least in the near term. Growth will accelerate sharply from fiscal 2016 onward.

It’s worth recalling the sting from the global financial crisis. Gross domestic product growth, as measured by production, plunged to 5.8% on-year in the final quarter of 2008, from 9.8% in the second quarter. Growth in expenditure GDP – a less reliable measure – dropped even more, to 1.5% on-year from 8.1%.

The main casualty was growth in gross fixed capital formation, which typically enhances an economy’s productive capacity. This fell from 13.9% in the second quarter to 2.1% in the fourth quarter – then declined by nearly 10% in early 2009.

Afterward, both capital formation and GDP recovered rapidly in a classic V-shaped pattern. Production GDP growth, which fell to 6.7% in fiscal 2009, averaged 8.8% a year in the next two fiscal years. Gross fixed capital formation averaged nearly 10% growth per year in fiscal 2010 and 2011, a swift recovery that hinted the economy was once again on an elevated trajectory — though policy paralysis later shortchanged it.

via Plotting the Shape of India’s Recovery – India Real Time – WSJ.

15/05/2013

* Job prospects grim for China’s 7m fresh grads

ANN: “When James Zhao, 23, read news reports last Friday claiming Renren, the “Facebook of China“, could be laying off three-quarters of the staff at its 3G technology department, his heart sank.

China Job

Having been unsuccessful in his job applications to several multinational tech firms, including mobile giant Motorola, he was hoping to have better luck with local companies like Renren.

“If even the local firms are cutting staff, then the hiring sentiment is getting from bad to worse,” Zhao told The Straits Times. He will graduate next month with a master’s degree in software engineering from a university in Beijing.

One key reason for his employment woes is the record bumper crop of 6.99 million fresh graduates – 190,000 more than last year – who will enter the job market this year.

A sluggish economic recovery also dampens hiring prospects, with some state media calling 2013 “the worst employment year” for white-collar workers.

In the first three months of this year, when the economy grew a slower-than-expected 7.7 per cent, demand for workers fell by 3 per cent, or 163,000 people, in China’s 84 major cities from a year ago.

The hardest hit were the prosperous eastern provinces, according to data from the China Labour Resources Market Research Centre. This region, which houses many of China’s key export and manufacturing hubs, saw a 7.2 per cent drop in labour demand.

In Guangdong province, the hiring rate for fresh graduates at its major universities is currently 52.4 per cent, about 7 percentage points lower than last year.

The job trend this year “may even be worse” than in 2008 during the global financial crisis, the Information News reported yesterday, citing a spokesman for the provincial education bureau’s employment guidance centre.

Industrial output data for April, released yesterday, showed weaker-than-expected growth of 9.3 per cent. This prompted analysts like Renmin University labour expert Liu Yuanchun to warn that “if the economy continues to slow, the impact on employment in certain sectors will be more obvious”, with even mass layoffs.

Earlier this year, MNCs had already made headlines with a round of dismissals in China. In March, some 50 employees at HSBC’s life insurance unit staged a protest outside its offices after 22 workers and 138 agents were axed. Motorola’s Mobility Unit in China is currently undertaking the first of three rounds of job cuts that would shrink its workforce by 800 in total.

Some larger local firms reportedly received local government support to keep their staff numbers stable. This is in line with the Chinese government’s pledge last week to keep this year’s jobless rate at 4.6 per cent or less. It will create nine million urban jobs, the same number as last year, when the jobless rate was 4.1 per cent.

But there are signs that some local players are starting to buckle under pressure.

Loss-making Chery Automobile is said to be planning 9,000 job cuts, China Business News reported yesterday, citing unnamed company insiders. The company bled 191 million yuan (US$30.79 million) in losses in the first quarter.

Even here in Beijing, where white-collar jobs are traditionally more plentiful, Zhang Mi, 25, has yet to land an offer as a teacher or a trainer despite submitting 60 job applications to schools and private firms since last October.

The social studies master’s degree holder has had only four interviews and her parents are “worried sick”.

“There are simply too many graduates this year. I will have to lower my expectations,” said Zhang, who is seeking a 5,000 yuan starting salary.

via Job prospects grim for China’s 7m fresh grads – ANN.

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