Posts tagged ‘Government budget deficit’

22/01/2013

* Chidambaram: See ‘First Green Shoots’ of Recovery

WSJ: “India’s finance minister said the “first green shoots” of the country’s economic revival are evident but growth isn’t expected to surpass 5.7% this year, the bottom end of the government’s revised growth target.

English: India's Minister of Finance Palaniapp...

English: India’s Minister of Finance Palaniappan Chidambaram is the special guest at a plenary session titled Risks to India’s Economy in a Post-Crisis World held at the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit 2008 in New Delhi, 16-18 November 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In Hong Kong to meet investors ahead of the budget presentation for fiscal 2013, P. Chidambaram told reporters that growth next year should be in the upper ranges of the 6%-7% target and that the economy should return to its potential growth rate, around 8%, by the following year.”

via Chidambaram: See ‘First Green Shoots’ of Recovery – WSJ.com.

06/11/2012

* India Is Clamping Down on Spending

WSJ: “India’s government has started to tighten its belt as it strives to meet the revised budget deficit target of 5.3% of gross domestic product for the year through March 2013.

It’s not that spending is decreasing: it’s still increasing –  only a lot less. So in September, government spending rose by a “paltry” 1.4% from a year earlier, according to a new report by brokerage Nomura.  By comparison, in August, spending had increased by a whopping 32% from a year earlier, Nomura economist Sonal Varma told India Real Time.

To look at it another way, public spending rose by 0.47% between August and September compared to a 30.7% increase in the same period last year.

Nomura’s Ms. Varma told India Real Time said that the government has cut spending on sectors such as defense. A recent increase in fuel prices means the government is also saving money on subsidies. In September, the government raised the price of diesel by 14% to about 47 rupees to reduce its expenses on fuel subsidy. The government estimates this will save it around 150 billion rupees in the year ending March 31, 2013.

One of the reasons why public spending has slowed down, says Ms. Verma, is because the government has delayed paying subsidies to oil marketing companies. These are costs that may be partly rolled over to next year.

A senior finance ministry official told India Real Time that the government expects to cut at least 500 billion rupees, or about 4% of the 14.9 trillion rupees that it had planned to spend this year. The official said spending cut will be across the board, but did not want to single out any particular area.

Despite spending cuts, public expenditure remains high, mainly due to subsidies on fuel, food and fertilizers, and on social sector schemes.

To meet its budget deficit target, India needs to slash government expenditure as well as raise funds through stake sales in state-run companies and the sale of radio bandwidth.

These are the governments priorities as laid out by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram last week, when he announced a fiscal roadmap aimed at lowering the budget gap from 5.3% in the year through March 2013 to 3% by 2017.”

via India Is Clamping Down on Spending – India Real Time – WSJ.

25/04/2012

* S&P cuts India’s outlook from stable to negative; markets hit

A logo of the Standard & Poor's AA- rating

A logo of the Standard & Poor’s AA- rating (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Times of India: “Ratings agency Standard & Poors on Wednesday cut India’s outlook to negative from stable, citing its large fiscal deficit and expectations of only modest progress on reforms given political constraints, battering stocks, bonds and the rupee.

The lowered outlook jeopardises India’s long-term rating of BBB-, which is the lowest investment grade rating. “The outlook revision reflects our view of at least a one-in-three likelihood of a downgrade if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting,” S&P credit analyst Takahira Ogawa said in a note.”

via S&P cuts Indias outlook from stable to negative; markets hit – The Times of India.

What would you expect, given recent decisions in India, such as that to retroactive review foreign takeovers or mergers and apply taxes or penalties retroactively is not helping in foreign investment. While China has been assiduously wooing everyone, see https://chindia-alert.org/2012/12/31/question-who-did-china-woo-in-2012/ – plus for April a senior Chinese minister/politician either visited or hosted the following: Caribbean, Kazakhstan, Britain, Cyprus, Brunei, Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Poland, Thailand, Japan, North Korea, Timor-Leste, Colombia, South Sudan; Indian ministers/politicians and ministers are firmly ensconced at home!

16/03/2012

* India: ‘Need for urgent reforms as corruption, civil society activism delay decisions’

The Hindu: “The government on Thursday gave a clarion call for urgent economic reforms while conceding that corruption scandals and compulsions of coalition politics have slowed down the decision-making process, as a result of which it is faced with fiscal slippages in 2011-12.

Making a strong pitch for raising tax resources and higher compliance, the Economic Survey 2011-12, tabled in Parliament on Thursday in tandem with the Reserve Bank in its mid-quarter policy review, expressed serious concern over the deteriorating state of government finances and stressed the need for fiscal consolidation if inflation is to be tamed.

Highlighting inflation and fiscal slippages as among the major challenges confronting the economy, the Survey said a slackening in the pace of reforms and high-profile corruption scandals along with “welcome civil society activism” have led to delay in decision-making by civil servants.

Tabled in the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the Survey said “coalition politics and federal considerations played their roles in holding up economic reforms on several fronts, ranging from diesel and LPG pricing to FDI in retail” and also pointed to the economic slowdown partly resulting from domestic issues “like pressures of democratic politics.”

In concert with the apex bank on the need for fiscal consolidation, the Survey said: “The principal way in which this has to be achieved is by raising tax-GDP ratio and cutting down wasteful expenditures.”

The Survey noted that the dismal economic performance this fiscal should be a “wake-up call” but, at the same time, expressed cautious optimism that the GDP growth in 2012-13 would go up to 7.6 per cent following a moderation in inflation and consequent low interest rates.

“The growth rate of real GDP [is expected] to pick up to 7.6 per cent [plus or minus 0.25 per cent] in 2012-13 and faster beyond that,” the Survey said and noted that economic expansion this fiscal would moderate to a three-year low at 6.9 per cent. Arguing out a case for fiscal consolidation, tax reforms, opening of the multi-brand retail to global chains, freeing of diesel prices and the need for honesty among political leaders and policy-makers, the Survey said that although government’s fiscal deficit was likely to significantly go off the target of 4.6 per cent of GDP this fiscal, it would narrow down to 4.1 per cent in 2012-13 on the strength of a pick-up in economic activities. After tabling the pre-budget document, the Finance Minister said: “It [the Survey] charts economic development and challenges faced during the fiscal year. It is a vital input for the preparation of the budget.”

At a press briefing later during the day, Chief Economic Adviser Kaushik Basu, prime architect of the document, said growth in manufacturing and agriculture sectors were likely to be key drivers in the next fiscal. “There could be one more year of a slight slowing down of investment and saving rates. We expect… rates to pick up handsomely after that,” he said.”

via The Hindu : News / National : ‘Need for urgent reforms as corruption, civil society activism delay decisions’.

Related page: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/indian-tensions/

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