Posts tagged ‘India’s economy’

31/01/2015

India’s economic growth revised up by almost 50 percent | Reuters

India’s economy grew almost 50 percent faster in 2013/14 than earlier thought, the government said on Friday after changing a formula, a reminder of the challenges that unreliable statistics present to Indian policymakers.

Kashmiri farmers thrash paddy crop in Srinagar October 22, 2013. REUTERS/Danish Ismail/Files

In the year leading up to the elections that brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power last May, the economy grew 6.9 percent, not the 4.7 percent reported earlier, chief statistician T.C.A. Anant told reporters.

Modi’s campaign succeeded partly because of the widespread feeling that his predecessors from the Congress party had plunged the economy into the country’s longest deceleration in growth in a generation.

The revised formula, showing a faster recovery, includes under-represented and informal sectors as well as items such as smartphones and LED television sets in gross domestic product.

That could boost India’s growth figure in the year ending in March 2015, which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected to be around 5.5 percent.

Some in government predict the change will

via Economic growth revised up by almost 50 percent | Reuters.

19/06/2014

Plotting the Shape of India’s Recovery – India Real Time – WSJ

Optimism abounds in India following Narendra Modi’s unexpectedly strong election victory. It’s still early days, but the new government’s priorities and coherence are a breath of fresh air.

As India’s economy gets back on its feet, one question is whether the  recovery will be shaped like a U, a V or a square root. In other words: Can growth rebound as quickly and strongly as it did after the global financial crisis?

Unfortunately, the answer is no: India’s recovery will be gradual and uneven, at least in the near term. Growth will accelerate sharply from fiscal 2016 onward.

It’s worth recalling the sting from the global financial crisis. Gross domestic product growth, as measured by production, plunged to 5.8% on-year in the final quarter of 2008, from 9.8% in the second quarter. Growth in expenditure GDP – a less reliable measure – dropped even more, to 1.5% on-year from 8.1%.

The main casualty was growth in gross fixed capital formation, which typically enhances an economy’s productive capacity. This fell from 13.9% in the second quarter to 2.1% in the fourth quarter – then declined by nearly 10% in early 2009.

Afterward, both capital formation and GDP recovered rapidly in a classic V-shaped pattern. Production GDP growth, which fell to 6.7% in fiscal 2009, averaged 8.8% a year in the next two fiscal years. Gross fixed capital formation averaged nearly 10% growth per year in fiscal 2010 and 2011, a swift recovery that hinted the economy was once again on an elevated trajectory — though policy paralysis later shortchanged it.

via Plotting the Shape of India’s Recovery – India Real Time – WSJ.

03/03/2014

* India Looks Set to Miss Growth Target – India Real Time – WSJ

Disappointing growth in the September-December quarter means India’s economy will likely fall short of even its reduced target for the year.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation last month projected gross domestic product growth of 4.9% for the fiscal year ending March 31. Until then, the Finance Ministry had been predicting growth of 5% or slightly more — down from a forecast of6.4% earlier in the year.

Data Friday showed India’s economy grew 4.7% in the three months to December, after expanding 4.8% and 4.4% in the first two quarters of the fiscal year. That means the economy would have to grow 5.7% in the current quarter – highly unlikely — to hit the full-year mark of 4.9%.

“The economy appears to be at a standstill, both in terms of investments and consumption,” said Anjali Verma, a Mumbai-based economist at brokerage PhillipCapital. “The numbers have been very tepid, and it’s unlikely we’ll see much improvement soon.”

Some economists already are writing off this quarter, as corporate and government decision makers are expected to delay big projects until after national elections that must take place by the end of May.

Businesses are essentially in a holding pattern until they know the next government’s economic policies.

via India Looks Set to Miss Growth Target – India Real Time – WSJ.

Enhanced by Zemanta
Law of Unintended Consequences

continuously updated blog about China & India

ChiaHou's Book Reviews

continuously updated blog about China & India

What's wrong with the world; and its economy

continuously updated blog about China & India