Posts tagged ‘International Monetary Fund’

17/05/2015

The wrong direction | The Economist

THE total value of support given by the Chinese government to farmers exceeds that of any other country. In 2012, the most recent year for which comparative data exist, China paid out $165 billion in direct and indirect agricultural subsidies. The next highest totals were those of Japan at $65 billion and America at just over $30 billion, according to research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

On a relative basis, however, China’s support is more in line with global norms. Subsidies as a share of farm income are about 17%, rapidly catching up with the average for the OECD, a group of wealthier countries. The most lavish spenders include Japan, South Korea and Switzerland, where subsidies account for more than half of farm income.

More troubling is the trajectory (see chart). Among major emerging markets tracked by the OECD, China is second only to Indonesia in the rate of its subsidy growth. China’s farm support rose from 1.4% of GDP in 1995-97 to 2.3% in 2010-12. It is moving in the opposite direction from developed countries, which are gradually reducing such support. Average spending on it in the OECD countries fell from 1.6% of GDP in 1995-97 to 0.9% in 2010-12.

There are also concerns about the kind of support provided by China. Even those who advocate less intervention in farming by governments acknowledge that it can play a useful role in mitigating boom-bust cycles. The challenge is to design support that minimises distortions. Schemes that lead to more investment in yield enhancements or that provide flat subsidies, regardless of production levels, are best. Those that encourage farmers to plant crops even if real demand is weak are harmful.

The OECD calculates that nearly 70% of Chinese subsidies are of the most distorting sort. For example, the government guarantees minimum purchase-prices, currently well above global levels, to grain growers. Other Asian countries are worse offenders. In Indonesia, the most problematic forms of subsidies account for nearly all of the government’s agricultural spending. But given China’s size, its interventions and the mismanagement of its food reserves are likely to have more far-reaching consequences for global markets.

via The wrong direction | The Economist.

19/04/2015

E-commerce boom spurs record demand for VRL Logistics IPO | Reuters

A $75-million market debut for Indian parcel delivery firm VRL Logistics Ltd IPO-VRLL.NS has encountered record demand, drawing bids for more than 70 times the number of shares on offer late last week, as investors bet on an e-commerce boom.

Subscription levels were the highest in nearly eight years, stock exchange data showed, roughly the highest since the global financial crisis hit.

Analysts said strong demand was helped by the successful listing of renewable energy firm INOX Wind (INWN.NS), which has lifted primary market sentiment, and growing demand for logistics services as Indians buy more online.

The sale received bids amounting to 74.26 times the number of shares on offer by the last day on Friday, stock exchange data showed.

via E-commerce boom spurs record demand for VRL Logistics IPO | Reuters.

01/04/2015

India aims to raise exports to $900 billion by 2019/2020 | Reuters

India aims to raise its exports to $900 billion by fiscal year 2019/20, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.

A man walks past steel rims and parked cars at a dock yard at Mumbai Port Trust in Mumbai November 17, 2014.  REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade/Files

India’s total exports were $465.9 billion in the 2013/14 fiscal year that ended on March 31, 2014, the statement said.

In the first 11 months of the 2014/15 fiscal year that ended on Tuesday, merchandise exports stood at $286.58 billion, government data showed.

Merchandise exports account for about one-fifth of the $2 trillion Indian economy.

via India aims to raise exports to $900 billion by 2019/2020 | Reuters.

12/02/2015

Racing the elephant against the dragon | The Economist

IN 1991 India’s finance minister presented a budget to India’s parliament that would change the economic history of his country. His reforms dispensed with mounds of the red tape that reined in Indian growth, and opened up many industries to foreign capital. But India was a late-comer to the liberalisation game; China had been opening its economy since the 1970s and accelerated its efforts in the 1990s. China’s reforms have been the more successful; except for a brief period in 1999, the Chinese economy has consistently outperformed its smaller neighbour. But that picture may soon reverse.

Official statistics published on February 9th revealed that India’s GDP rose by 7.5% in 2014, a shade faster than China’s over the same period. Later this month Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, is likely to push new reforms. India also enjoys a demographic advantage. Whereas China’s workforce began to shrink in 2012, more than half of India’s current population is younger than 25. India, rather than China, may henceforth be the symbol of rapid emerging-market growth.

via Daily chart: Racing the elephant against the dragon | The Economist.

12/02/2015

India Passes China to Become World’s Fastest-Growing Economy – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Everyone from the World Bank to Goldman Sachs had predicted it wouldn’t happen for another two years but recent recalculations indicate that India has already dethroned China as the world’s fastest-growing big economy.

Late Monday, India’s statistics ministry surprised economists when it unveiled the new numbers for the growth of India’s gross domestic product. It ratcheted up India’s GDP growth figures using a new methodology that pegs expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy at 7.5% last quarter and 8.2% the quarter before that. Economists and the ministry, using the old methodology, had originally said growth was closer to 5.5% during those quarters.

While economists, investors and executives are still wondering how growth could have been so high during those quarters when other indicators suggested times were tough, the new official numbers mean that India outpaced China, taking the pole position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

India has been able to catch up because China’s growth has been slowing. The Middle Kingdom’s GDP expansion was 7.3% in both the third and fourth quarters of 2014. While there are smaller economies which may have had stronger growth, this puts India on top after decades driving in China’s slipstream.

Of course, China’s economy is still four times the size of India’s.

“There’s no comparison between these growth rates because of the size of the economy of China,” said Ashish Kumar, director general of the Central Statistics Office as he announced the new GDP growth numbers.  “If this kind of growth continues and China continues to perform at a lower level, then still it will take 20 to 30 years to catch up.”

Still, if it can keep up this pace at least India will be gaining some ground. More importantly, a return to high growth might mean India is following in China’s footsteps and entering a take-off phase.

The South Asian nation needs to revamp its economy to help create more manufacturing jobs and savings if it wants to become the next China, said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in a recent report.

“That’s a challenging transformation,” he said. “India may never quite match the rapid ascent of China, but even at a slightly slower speed it will start to make waves.”

via India Passes China to Become World’s Fastest-Growing Economy – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

20/01/2015

5 Takeaways From China’s GDP – WSJ

1 THE SLOWEST PACE IN MORE THAN 20 YEARS

For much of the last two decades, China has been working overtime to drive the growth of the world economy. Now, it’s slowing to suborbital speeds. Last year’s growth of 7.4% was the slowest since 1990, a year when China was reeling from out-of-control inflation and the sanctions that followed the Tiananmen Square massacre.

2 IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE

The slowdown of 2014 is unlikely to be a blip, and probably presages an extended deceleration of growth. The often bullish International Monetary Fund has penciled in 6.8% growth for 2015, as has investment bank UBS. Others are even more downbeat. Oxford Economics predicts 6.5%–and says this will be the last time China’s growth exceeds 6%.

3 COMMODITY EXPORTERS WILL BE THE BIGGEST LOSERS

China is a huge importer of raw materials, from oil to soybeans. Much of last decade’s commodity boom was premised on the idea of insatiable Chinese demand. As the extent of the slowdown crystallizes, prices for key goods are tumbling, and commodity-dependent economies like Russia, Brazil, Venezuela and Angola are already in trouble. Expect more of the same.

4 HOUSING IS THE WILDCARD

The only thing that could lift the fortunes of commodity producers would be a revival of China’s housing market. House prices were down 4.5% on year as of December, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Construction has ground to a halt on many sites as developers wait to see if the market will turn around. Prices could stabilize this year, said Haibin Zhu, an economist at J.P. Morgan, but that is far from certain. If moves to introduce a property tax end up killing confidence in the market, prices could keep falling.

5 THESE FIGURES NEED TO BE TAKEN WITH A PINCH OF SALT

Economists say it is daft to get hung up on changes of a few tenths of a percentage point in the official growth rate. The statistics bureau’s methodology is “not so scientific,” as Harry Wu, a skeptic at Hitotsubashi University in Japan, puts it. And even if statisticians at the central government level are immune to political pressure, few doubt that the local bureaus underneath them are capable of fudging the numbers to produce a more flattering picture.

Still, the general trend seems to be clear. If the government says the economy is slowing down, you can bet the slowdown is real.

via 5 Takeaways From China’s GDP – WSJ.

19/10/2014

How Poor Is China? – Businessweek

By one measure, China is set to surpass the U.S. this year in gross domestic product as the world’s largest economy—in terms of purchasing power parity (rather than nominal GDP), says the International Monetary Fund. China also has the world’s second-largest population of ultra-wealthy, with some 7,600 people possessing at least $50 million, according to a report released on Tuesday by Credit Suisse. (The U.S. remains No. 1 in its number of super-rich).

Sifting through trash near Hefei, China

Still, that wealth contrasts with impoverishment. About 82 million Chinese still live in poverty, an official announced at a press conference in Beijing on Tuesday, reported the China Daily.

That figure is according to the Chinese poverty standard of about 2,300 yuan a year, or about $1 a day. Using the international standard of $1.25 a day, set by the World Bank, raises the figure to 200 million, said Zheng Wenkai, vice-minister of the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development. This means that 15 percent of China’s population is impoverished, according to the broader measure.

All told, China has 120,000 villages plagued by poverty. Residents lack electricity, running water, schools, and proper health care, the English-language paper reported. Dire conditions are exacerbated by the fact that most are in remote, often mountainous parts of the country that have inadequate roads.

Poor populations are concentrated in extremely poor contiguous regions with poor living conditions, inadequate infrastructure as well as being afflicted with natural disasters,” the Global Times reported. Last year, China lifted 40 million residents out of poverty, and it plans to bring an additional 10 million out in 2014. China will send resident-assistance teams to the worst hit regions, the official said.

via How Poor Is China? – Businessweek.

22/07/2014

BRICS Summit: A Show of Economic Might Is Nothing to Fear – Businessweek

As Brazilians were recovering last week from the World Cup, the country held another global event: the BRICS summit, a gathering of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The outcome was no doubt more pleasing to Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff than her country’s soccer performance. The countries agreed to set up a $50 billion “BRICS bank” to invest in development projects in the developing world, alongside a $100 billion pool of reserve currencies earmarked as “a kind of mini-IMF,” according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. It was a strong statement of the grouping’s growing global economic heft and a challenge to the order established by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

China President Xi Jinping being welcomed by President Rousseff at Planalto Palace in Brasilia

Some in the West have perceived that challenge as a threat. The U.S. has veto power over major decisions at the International Monetary Fund. Without European or American backing, it is almost impossible to get a loan through the World Bank. The North Atlantic powers will have no such say in the operations of the BRICS bank, another sign that the global balance of economic and financial power is shifting.

The BRICS do pose a threat, but their own development bank isn’t it. The more worrisome risk is that the BRICS won’t grow as quickly as they have in the past, that the grand plans hatched in Brazil will dwindle along with the economies supporting them. If pessimistic forecasts of Asian and Latin American economic performance turn out to be justified, that’s no reason for cheer in Washington or Brussels—collapsing growth in the developing world would be terrible news for the West.

via BRICS Summit: A Show of Economic Might Is Nothing to Fear – Businessweek.

19/05/2014

The Twin Deficits That Threaten Modi’s India – Businessweek

For Narendra Modi, getting elected as prime minister of India is the easy part. Now comes dealing with the twin deficits—in the national budget and in foreign trade—that endanger the world’s largest democracy.

Opposition leader and India's next prime minister Narendra Modi greets supporters during a visit to seek his mother's blessings in Gandhinagar, the western Indian state of Gujarat on May 16

Overnight poll results show that Modi’s opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies scored the biggest Indian election win in 30 years. “Voters tired of sluggish economic growth and corruption handed a historic defeat to the Gandhi dynasty that has dominated politics since the country’s founding,” Bloomberg News reported today.

In April, the International Monetary Fund issued a 66-page report on India that highlighted the challenges facing India. The report notes that India is not the only Group of 20 country with high budget deficits, nor is it the only one with high trade deficits. What’s unusual is that it’s high in both.

Despite notable progress in shrinking both deficits, India remains vulnerable to a crisis of confidence among global investors, the IMF report says. Advanced economies are vulnerable to rapid fiscal deterioration, the report says, when they have debt-to-GDP ratios above 80 percent of GDP and persistent deficits in the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services. Emerging economies such as India’s are vulnerable even at lower debt levels, the report says, citing work by Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart.

via The Twin Deficits That Threaten Modi’s India – Businessweek.

Enhanced by Zemanta
26/03/2014

China says supports international financial aid for Ukraine | Reuters

Ukrainian Finance Minister Oleksander Shlapak says he is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund for a loan package of $15 billion to $20 billion because the economy had been severely weakened by months of political turmoil and mismanagement.

Civilians entering Ukraine (L) have their passports checked as Ukrainian border guards (R) stand at a Russian-Ukrainian border crossing near the village of Uspenka, in eastern Ukraine March 25, 2014. REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis

U.S. President Barack Obama has also urged the IMF to reach agreement swiftly on a financial support package for Kiev, which would unlock additional aid from the European Union and Washington.

Asked about aid for Ukraine, China, whose President Xi Jinping discussed Ukraine with Obama on Monday, said that the government “upholds the maintaining of Ukraine’s financial stability”.

“International financial organizations ought to get down to dealing with this, to ensure Ukraine’s financial and economic stability,” foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily news briefing.

He did not elaborate, instead repeating that China had proposed setting up an international coordination mechanism to look for a political solution to the crisis over Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

China, he said, hoped all parties in the international community would take no actions to worsen the situation.

China has adopted a cautious, low-key response to the crisis, not wanting either to alienate key ally Russia or comment directly on the referendum in which Crimea voted overwhelmingly to join Russia, lest it set a precedent for its own restive regions, like Tibet.

via China says supports international financial aid for Ukraine | Reuters.

Enhanced by Zemanta
Law of Unintended Consequences

continuously updated blog about China & India

ChiaHou's Book Reviews

continuously updated blog about China & India

What's wrong with the world; and its economy

continuously updated blog about China & India