Posts tagged ‘Real estate bubble’

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21/05/2014

Is China’s Housing Bubble Beginning to Burst? – Businessweek

Earlier this month, financial analysts from Japan-based Nomura Group (NMR) issued a grim report on China’s housing market: “To us, it is no longer a question of ‘if’ but rather ‘how severe’ the property market correction will be,” the report read.

Residential apartment buildings under construction in Qingzhou city, in east China’s Shandong province

Nomura—which has historically been bearish on China, as the Wall Street Journal observes—predicted that a downturn in the housing market, caused by oversupply and shrinking developer financing, could sharply impact China’s economy, perhaps even driving GDP growth to less than 6 percent in 2014.

China’s economy is vulnerable because property investment accounts for anywhere from 16 percent to 20 percent of gross domestic product, according to varying analyses.

via Is China’s Housing Bubble Beginning to Burst? – Businessweek.

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07/03/2013

* China faces social, financial risks in urbanization push

See also today’s reblog from China Daily Mail about the property bubble.

Reuters: “China’s urbanization drive could fuel social unrest over land disputes and pose financial risks if money is thrown around recklessly, a senior communist party official and a leading economist said on Thursday.

Wang Baiqiang prepares to go to work at a shoe factory in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province February 18, 2013. REUTERS-Carlos Barria

Shifting people from the countryside to cities is a policy priority for China’s new leaders as they seek to sustain economic growth that last year slowed to a 13-year low of 7.8 percent. The government hopes 60 percent of China’s population of almost 1.4 billion will be urban residents by 2020.

The urban population jumped to above 700 million from less than 200 million in the previous three decades, but that explosion has triggered sometimes violent clashes over expropriation of farmland for development as well as water shortages, pollution and other problems.

“These are severe challenges as we are trying to sustain the urbanization process,” said Chen Xiwen, head of the Office of Central Rural Work Leading Group, the top body which guides China’s farm policy. “Many people have worries and such worries are understandable,” he told a news conference on the sidelines of China’s annual parliament session.

The government must protect farmers from losing their land in the process as local governments have been relying heavily on land sales to finance local investment, Chen said. “If the urbanization process becomes a process of depriving and harming farmers’ interests, it cannot be sustained and society cannot maintain stability.””

via China faces social, financial risks in urbanization push | Reuters.

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