Posts tagged ‘South China Sea’

03/04/2013

* China, ASEAN agree to develop code of conduct in South China Sea

Maritime claims in the South China Sea

Maritime claims in the South China Sea (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Is China becoming more pragmatic on the territorial disputes?

Xinhua: “All participants in the 19th China-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Senior Officials’ Consultation have agreed to work toward a code of conduct in the South China Sea.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry press release on Tuesday said after the conclusion of the consultation it was agreed that all parties will commit themselves to fully implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

They will make joint efforts toward “a code of conduct in the South China Sea” and continue to exchange views on the issue.

According to the press release, China and ASEAN also agreed to co-host celebrations on the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership and further expand friendly communication and cooperation in all fields.”

via China, ASEAN agree to develop code of conduct in South China Sea – Xinhua | English.news.cn.

02/04/2013

* China’s Glass Ceiling

Foreign Policy: “It’s over for America,” a Chinese academic told me in late 2008, two days after Goldman Sachs turned itself into a commercial bank in order to fend off possible collapse. “From here on, it’s all downhill.” Sitting in Beijing as American capitalism seemed to be hanging by a thread, it was easy to believe that one era was ending and another beginning.

The past half-decade should have been the glory years for the spread of Chinese influence around the world. After China’s ravishing 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics, and its startling recovery from the financial crisis, it had a platform to push for a bigger voice in international affairs. At a time when the United States has been navel-gazing on its own deficiencies and beset by dysfunction and infighting in Congress, China has quickly become the main trading partner for a long list of countries, not just in Asia, which should give it all sorts of sway. And at the very least, many Chinese assume, the country should start to resume its role as the natural leader in Asia.

Yet the years since the crisis have demonstrated something very different. Rather than usher in a new era of Chinese influence, Beijing’s missteps have shown why it is unlikely to become the world’s leading power. Even if it overtakes the United States to have the biggest economy in the world, which many economists believe could happen over the next decade, China will not dislodge Washington from its central position in global affairs for decades to come.

China is certainly not lacking in ambition, even if many of its final goals are not clearly articulated. It is implementing plans which challenge U.S. military, economic, and even political supremacy. But on each front, the last few years have demonstrated China’s limitations, not the inevitability of its rise.

China’s effort to gradually squeeze the U.S. Navy out of the Western Pacific did not start with the financial crisis in 2008. The financial crisis did, however, coincide with a new aggressiveness in the way China has pushed its territorial claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Beijing has scored at least one victory, securing control of the Scarborough Shoal, a group of small islands in the South China Sea, from the Philippines in 2012.

But among these tactical successes, China has been sowing the seeds of a strategic defeat. China’s assertiveness is generating intense suspicion, if not outright enmity, among its neighbors. Its “peaceful rise” is not taking place in isolation. There may be echoes in today’s Asia of the late-nineteenth century in Europe and North America, but this is the one critical difference. The United States came into its own as a great power without any major challenge from its neighbors, while Germany’s ascent was aided by the collapsing Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires and Russian monarchy on its frontiers. China, on the other hand, is surrounded by vibrant countries with fast-growing economies, from South Korea to India to Vietnam, who all believe that this is their time, as well. Even Japan, after two decades of stagnation, still has one of the most formidable navies in the world, as well as the world’s third largest economy. China’s strategic misfortune is to be bordered by robust and proud nation-states which expect their own stake in the modern world.

The last few years have shown that these countries have no desire to return to a Sinocentric Asia, as existed before the arrival of Western powers in the late-fifteenth century, and one where China is the undisputed leader. All the talk about the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia has obscured the much bigger shift that has taken place in the region since the crisis — almost all of China’s neighbors are now deeply anxious about what a powerful, expansionist leadership in Beijing portends for their future. They still want to trade with China, but they also want protection from Beijing’s bullying.”

via China’s Glass Ceiling – By Geoff Dyer | Foreign Policy.

11/01/2013

New Asean secretary general vows quick negotiations on South China Sea

Bangkok Post: “The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is seeking early talks with China to discuss a code of conduct to manage tensions over the disputed South China Sea, the bloc’s new chief said Wednesday.

China claims most of the sea, including a vital shipping lane and resource-rich areas. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei have overlapping claims in the area, as does Taiwan.

“Asean should speed up efforts towards an early start of negotiations with China with a view to achieving an early conclusion of a code of conduct on the South China Sea,” Asean Secretary-General Le Luong Minh said.

Newly inaugurated Asean Secretary-General Le Luong Minh of Vietnam, left, shakes hands with outgoing former Surin Pitsuwan during the office handover ceremony. (Reuters photo)

The Vietnamese diplomat was speaking in Jakarta after officially assuming the post of Asean secretary, replacing Surin Pitsuwan of Thailand.

In 2011, Asean and China agreed on a non-binding set of guidelines to allow dialogue and cooperation during talks on the Indonesian resort island of Bali.

A binding code of conduct is aimed at reducing the chance of conflict among the claimants.

Mr Minh also vowed to push Asean to move ahead in launching the Asean Economic Community in 2015.

“Despite the many challenges, I fully believe that Asean will emerge triumphant.

“The Asean Secretariat will continue to play active roles in supporting and coordinating with member states to help facilitate and drive the establishment of the Asean Community,” Mr Minh said.

“The next five years will be exciting and critical ones. We in the secretariat are prepared to work closely with Asean member states to ensure we are able to deliver our major commitments and objectives,” he said.”

via New Asean secretary general vows quick negotiations on South China Sea | Bangkok Post: news.

10/12/2012

* As China’s clout grows, sea policy proves unfathomable

This analogy is most interesting. One wonders if it is a sign of “the mess China’s foreign policy is” or something much cleverer: like letting Hainan Province appear to be the instigator. If all goes well, central government ratifies the policy and instead of provincial police boats, Chinese naval vessel enter the fray.  But if the uproar continues and grows in both volume and participation well beyond the South China Sea, central government disavows itself and ‘reprimand’s Hainan Province for over stepping its mandate. We will see within the next few weeks which it will be. But I’m not taking any bets!

Reuters: “Imagine if the U.S. state of Hawaii passed a law allowing harbor police to board and seize foreign boats operating up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Honolulu.

A Chinese marine surveillance ship is seen offshore of Vietnam's central Phu Yen province May 26, 2011 and released by Petrovietnam in this May 29, 2011 file handout photo. REUTERS-Handout-Files

That, in effect, is what happened in China about a week ago. The tropical province of Hainan, home to beachfront resorts and one of China’s largest naval bases, authorized a unit of the police to interdict foreign vessels operating “illegally” in the island’s waters, which, according to China, include much of the heavily disputed South China Sea.

At a time when the global community is looking to the world’s second-biggest economy and a burgeoning superpower for increasing maturity and leadership on the international stage, China’s opaque and disjointed foreign policy process is causing confusion and escalating tensions throughout its backyard.

Vietnam and the Philippines, which claim sovereignty over swathes of the South China Sea along with Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan, have issued verbal protests against the Hainan rules.

India, which jointly conducts some oil exploration with Vietnam in the South China Sea, said last week it was prepared to send navy ships to the region to safeguard its interests. And the United States has publicly asked Beijing for clarification as to what, if anything, the new rules mean — thus far to no avail.

“It is really unclear, I think, to most nations (what the regulations mean),” U.S. Ambassador to Beijing Gary Locke told Reuters last week. “Until we really understand what these things are, there is no way to comment. First we need clarification of the extent, the purpose and the reach of these regulations.”

The fact that a provincial government can unilaterally worsen one of China’s most sensitive diplomatic problems highlights the dysfunctionality, and potential danger, of policymaking in this arena, analysts say.

“It shows what a mess Chinese foreign policy is when it comes to the South China Sea,” said a Western diplomat in China, speaking on condition of anonymity.

According to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) earlier this year, no fewer than 11 government entities — from the tourism administration to the navy — play a role in the South China Sea. All, the ICG said, have the potential to take action that could cause diplomatic fallout.

via Analysis: As China’s clout grows, sea policy proves unfathomable | Reuters.

10/12/2012

* On the brink of gunboat diplomacy

It is truly ironic that China, the nation who suffered from ‘gunboat diplomacy 170 years ago, is apparently adopting the same measures against its smaller and weaker neighbours. If, as a result, we see a resurgence of Japanese militarism, China will only have itself to blame. What is worrying is that amongst leader Xi’s recent pronouncements since becoming head of the Party is the recurrent term ‘nationalism’.  This can mean something innocent such as resuming China’s global pre-eminence which it had until 200 years ago or something more sinister. Let’s hope it is the former.

Inquirer Opinion (Philippines): “The past four weeks saw the swiftest escalation in recent years of tensions over the territorial disputes between China and its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific.

China Gunboat Diplomacy

The tensions spiraled in late November when the province of Hainan, in the southern coastal region of China, issued an imperial-sounding  edict that its so-called lawmaking body had authorized its police patrol boats to board and search foreign ships of any nationality that illegally enter what it considers Chinese territories in the South China Sea. The plan was announced to take effect on short notice: on Jan. 1.

The edict caused considerable alarm among China’s smaller neighbors, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, all of whom have overlapping claims on islands in portions of the South China Sea, which China has claimed as exclusively belonging to it on the strength of ancient maps. It also caused consternation among other world powers such as the United States and India, which do not have territorial claims in the South China Sea, which is the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and through  which more than half of the globe’s oil tanker traffic passes. The concern of the United States and India, both of which have powerful navies to challenge China’s aggressive assertion of its hegemonic ambitions, involves freedom of navigation and trade routes in the entire China Sea.

The new rules emanating from Hainan will allow its local police—not China’s navy—to seize control of foreign ships that “illegally enter” Chinese waters and order them to change course. The determination of what is illegal is left entirely in the hands of the Hainan authorities. What has affronted the rest of the world is this arbitrary exercise by China to enforce its territorial claims while intimidating its weaker neighbors with threats of its expanding naval power.

The rules shocked China’s neighbors so powerfully because these were issued, not by a democratic political system, but by a provincial government, and was addressed to rival claimants of disputed territories in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea, most of which are democracies. These rival claimants are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

The Hainan decision empowering its border police to intercept foreign ships sailing in waters claimed by China as its territory, which also overlaps territories in the South China Sea, affronts other claimants because it is seen as condescending and treating them as vassal states of the suzerain province.

There are now questions raised over whether the new rules were handed down at the instigation of the central Chinese government in Beijing or were initiated by the Hainan provincial government. Whatever is the source of the initiative, the new rules have galvanized countries affected by it to call for a clarification. The rules have accelerated the spiraling of tensions close to a flashpoint, of armed confrontation between Chinese gunboats and those of smaller countries whose ships are being intercepted even in waters claimed by them.

Under the new rules, Hainanese patrols are to prowl the seas far beyond the “baseline” of China’s 12-nautical-mile zone, which is allowed archipelagic countries. The Philippines has joined other nations in a coalition calling for clarification. A report in the Wall Street Journal said experts were unclear how the rules would be applied in practice. According to the report, Wu Sichun, the director of the foreign affairs office of Hainan province, who is also president of the National Institute for South China Sea, gave a narrow interpretation of the regulations.

He said the main purpose was to deal with Vietnamese fishing boats operating in waters near Yonxing Islands in the Paracels, which China calls the Xisha Island.

Wu said the regulations applied to waters around islands which announced “baselines.” He said the baseline is the low-water line along the coast from which countries measure their territorial waters, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).

Wu also said the rules allowed police to check and expel vessels that will enter, or conduct illegal activity  within, the 12 nautical miles of the islands for which China has announced baselines. It is not clear how this rules apply. The problem is that the Chinese are handing down their set of rules, interpreting these at their own convenience, and enforcing these with their own police patrols.

With their unilateral interventions, they have decreed a new law of the sea without the consent of the users of the sea. What worries us is: What happens when the boats they intercept are our gunboats patrolling our own national territory also claimed by China? That can be an act of war. We are on the brink of gunboat diplomacy.

via On the brink of gunboat diplomacy | Inquirer Opinion.

Related articles

07/12/2012

* India Dips a Toe into the South China Sea Dispute

Thoughtful commentary about why India, who has no territorial claims in he area, is getting involved with the South China Sea disputes.

Geopolitical Monitor: “Although the Xi Jinping administration is now secure enough in its transition to power to put nationalist jingoism back in the box from whence it came, recent events suggest that China will continue to tow a hard line in regards to its military and economic rights in the South China Sea.Joint exercises between the Indian Navy and the US Navy

Earlier this week, Chinese media sources reported that police authorities in Hainan province will be authorized to search and seize foreign vessels operating in Chinese waters starting next year. The announcement prompted an immediate response from the Philippine government, which condemned the move and requested a clarification as to what exactly can be considered ‘Chinese territorial waters.’ ASEAN also chimed in over the announcement, with Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan calling it a move that “raises the level of concern and great anxiety [in the dispute].”

Judging by Chinese official statements on the subject, it seems likely that this expansion of search and seizure powers applies to China’s entire territorial claim, which is essentially most of the South China Sea, extending as far south as Brunei. It can be seen as an initial attempt to leverage China’s growing naval power to buttress an ambitious territorial claim that has, up until now, remained largely rhetorical.

If Beijing goes through with the plan, it will ramp up the volatility in an already precarious region. Whenever hard military assets are being deployed and coming into close contact with one another, the risk of a crisis breaking out is substantially heightened. It wouldn’t take much for a relatively small and seemingly insignificant event, much like the standoff between China and the Philippines earlier this year, to spin out of control and set off a regional conflict.

And make no mistake: there will be no shortage of military ships operating in the South China Sea. On the very same day that China announced its intention for expanded search and seizures, the government of Vietnam announced that it was going to begin military patrols of its own territorial claim. This announcement comes on the heels of an incident earlier this week in which a group of Chinese boats cut the cables of a PetroVietnam survey vessel operating off the Gulf of Tonkin.

But by far one of the most interesting recent developments in the South China Sea dispute is the entrance of India into the fray. Earlier this week, Indian Admiral D.K Joshi publically asserted that India will not back off from protecting its maritime and economic interests in the South China Sea.

Although India doesn’t have any direct territorial claim in the area, the waters are strategically important to New Delhi for three reasons. First, like for any trade-dependent country, the South China Sea represents an important global shipping route and freedom of navigation must be maintained. Second, India’s state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) owns a stake in waters claimed by Vietnam. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the South China Sea represents an opportunity for an Indian riposte against China’s ‘string of pearls’ naval encirclement of the Indian subcontinent.”

via India Dips a Toe into the South China Sea Dispute – Geopolitical Monitor.

03/12/2012

* Post transition, China looking to build ties with neighbours

Talking of mixed messages: on the one hand we hev the Indian Navy trying to establish a position in South China Sea to protect its oil and gas interests there; on the other hand we have foreign ministers shaking hands and vowing better ties between neighbours. Which is the REAL message? And who is trying to fool whom?

The Hindu: “Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo told National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon here on Monday that China was looking to forge stronger ties with its neighbours following the leadership transition.

National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon with Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, his counterpart as the Special Representative on the boundary talks, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on Monday. Photo: Ananth Krishnan

Mr. Dai, who is also Mr. Menon’s counterpart as the Special Representative (SR) on the boundary talks, said Monday’s visit had assumed “special and important” significance as it was one of the first visits by a foreign leader to China following November’s Party Congress, which formalised a once-in-a-decade leadership transition.

“You’re one of the first few foreign leaders we are receiving after the party congress,” Mr. Dai told Mr. Menon at their first session of talks. “I’m sure through your visit the Indian side will have a better sense of China after the eighteenth Party Congress and China’s foreign policy, and how best to join forces to further promote the development of China-India relations”.

The first session of Monday’s talks was devoted to briefing Mr. Menon on China’s transition. Two other sessions later on Monday will focus on Sino-Indian relations and are expected to cover a range of topics from the boundary question to wider strategic issues.”

via The Hindu : News / National : Post transition, China looking to build ties with neighbours.

24/11/2012

* India and China row over new map in passport

This provocative action is most curious as China seemed to have moderated its attitude to territorial disputes at the recent ASEAN summit. Wonder if it is national policy or the over-enthusiastic actions of a newly-appointed Foreign Ministry after the 10-year leadership change?

BBC: “A fresh row has broken out between India and China over territorial claims in the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin area in eastern Kashmir.

A woman holds the new Chinese passport on 23 November 2012

In new passports, China’s maps show the two areas as Chinese territory.

The Indian embassy in Beijing is said to have retaliated by stamping Chinese visas with a map of their own which shows the territories in India.

Several of China’s neighbours have also protested against the new map.

Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan have all objected because it shows disputed islands in the South China Sea and Taiwan to be a part of China.

They have described the new design as a violation of their sovereignty.

Chinese official maps have long shown Taiwan and the South China Sea to be part of its own territory, but the inclusion of such claims on the passport has caused considerable anger.

The potentially oil-rich Paracel Islands, claimed by Vietnam since their troops were forced to leave by China in the 1970s and also claimed by Taiwan, make an appearance on the map, as do the Spratly Islands, part of which are claimed by the Philippines.

The disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, at the centre of recent tension between China and Japan are not included in the new document.

Relations between India and China have been uneasy – the two countries dispute several Himalayan border areas and fought a brief war in 1962.

Delhi is yet to officially take up the row over the map with Beijing.”

via BBC News – India and China row over new map in passport.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2012/11/22/5365/

23/11/2012

* Southeast Asian Nations Announce Trade Bloc to Rival U.S. Effort

It is not clear to me what motivates ASEAN nations to try and forma trading bloc that includes China, while Obama had initiated a similar pact to exclude China.  If may be a way of mollifying the strong stance ASEAN had taken regarding the South China Sea disputes. A ‘quid pro quo’ as it were.

NY Times: “Ten Southeast Asian nations said Tuesday that they would begin negotiating a sweeping trade pact that would include China and five of the region’s other major trading partners, but not the United States.

The proposal for the new trade bloc, to be known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, is enthusiastically embraced by China. The founding members, who belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, said at the close of the association’s summit meeting here that the bloc would cover nearly half of the world’s population, starting in 2015.

The new grouping is seen as a rival to a trade initiative of the Obama administration, the 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes many of the same countries but excludes China.”

via Southeast Asian Nations Announce Trade Bloc to Rival U.S. Effort – NYTimes.com.

22/11/2012

* China might be moving to ASEAN agreement on S China Seas= dispute

If China does agree to ASEAN multi-lateral agreement on South China Sea dispute, it will probably be the first time. It much prefers to do bilateral deals; conforming tot the old principle of ‘divide and conquer’.

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