Archive for February, 2014

23/02/2014

India’s Modi Talks Tough on China – India Real Time – WSJ

The frontrunner to become India’s next prime minister traveled to a town near the country’s disputed Himalayan border with China over the weekend and bluntly warned Beijing to abandon its territorial ambitions.

In a sign of rising Indian wariness of its northern neighbor, Hindu nationalist opposition leader Narendra Modi said China “will have to leave behind its mindset of expansion” and said Beijing should work for “development and prosperity.”

For Mr. Modi, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s candidate for the premiership in upcoming national elections, it was a rare foray into foreign policy on the campaign trail, where he has focused primarily on a weak domestic economy.

Speaking in Pasighat, a town in India’s northeast Arunachal Pradesh state, and again in Assam near India’s border with Bangladesh, Mr. Modi sought to portray himself as strong on defense and unafraid of other regional powers.

“No power on earth can snatch away Arunachal Pradesh from India,” Mr. Modi said.

India’s next leader will inherit a volatile neighborhood.

In addition to a more assertive and well-armed China, which is looking to play a greater role in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, New Delhi also must deal with the fallout of a diminishing U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan.

Security experts warn that reduced Western presence there could fuel Islamic militancy along India’s already troubled border with Pakistan. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have been gripped by internal political tensions.

via India’s Modi Talks Tough on China – India Real Time – WSJ.

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22/02/2014

China gives order to commence war with Japan ‘if it is appropriate to fight’

This translated article seems to confirm the views of a senior US military person – https://chindia-alert.org/2014/02/20/china-training-for-short-sharp-war-says-senior-us-naval-officer-ft-com/

China has been to war with India, Russia and Vietnam over border/territorial disputes – https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/chinese-tensions/ – Perhaps this will be another such conflict.

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21/02/2014

* Local-government debt: Bridging the fiscal chasm | The Economist

This article provides support for the views of Charlene Chu, expert on China’s shadow debt – http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ffcabcec-7900-11e3-b381-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2tsNdwlvq.  She was one of the key interviewees in Robert Peston‘s recent BBC2 show on “How China Fooled the World”. – http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03w7gxt

“CHINA’S provincial administrations are often referred to as “local” governments. But the phrase does not do them justice. The province of Guangdong, for example, boasts more than 105m people and a GDP worth more than $1 trillion. Only 11 countries (including China itself) have a bigger population and only 15 have a larger economy.

Equally impressive is the scale of provincial debts. At the end of 2013 China’s national auditor revealed that the liabilities of local governments had grown to 10.9 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) by the middle of last year, or 17.9 trillion yuan if various debt guarantees were added. That was equivalent to about a third of China’s GDP. These “local” debts, in other words, had grown fast enough to become a national burden and an international concern.

The audit documented the size of the problem, but revealed little about its location. The debts were all discussed at an aggregate, countrywide level. No provinces were singled out for blame or praise. In the past few weeks, however, almost all of the provincial-level governments have published audits of their own. As well as shedding light on the problem, this information may help to solve it. In principle, the least provident governments are now exposed to public scrutiny. Fiscal shame may help prevent a fiscal fright.

But identifying the most indebted province is not as easy as it sounds. The figures can be sliced and diced in a variety of ways. The coastal provinces of Jiangsu (just north of Shanghai) and Guangdong (just north of Hong Kong) owe the most, accounting for 14% of the total between them. But these two provinces also have the largest economies, generating over 19% of the country’s GDP.

Relative to the size of their economies, the poor western provinces of Yunnan, Qinghai and Gansu bear some of the heaviest burdens, along with the western municipality of Chongqing, which is renowned for its heavy public investment (see chart). The province with the biggest fiscal chasm to cross, however, is Guizhou (whose impressive Balinghe bridge is pictured above). It had liabilities in mid-2013 equivalent to over 80% of its GDP over the previous four quarters.

These figures include money China’s provincial governments have borrowed themselves and other institutions’ debts that they have guaranteed. Sometimes this debt is guaranteed explicitly. Often, the backing is implicit. By the end of 2012 Chongqing had explicitly guaranteed debts worth 18% of its GDP. Gansu, for its part, had implicitly backed borrowings worth 20%.”

via Local-government debt: Bridging the fiscal chasm | The Economist.

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21/02/2014

Behind China’s Labor Unrest: Factory Workers and Taxi Drivers – Businessweek

On top of the other article about pessimistic Chinese economists, this is worrying. See https://chindia-alert.org/2014/02/21/even-chinas-economists-are-singing-the-blues-china-real-time-report-wsj/

“What’s the state of dissent among China’s hundreds of millions of workers? They are increasingly aware of and demanding their rights, according to a new report by the China Labor Bulletin.

Workers sew blue jeans in a Chinese textile factory in 2012

There were 1,171 strikes and protests in China recorded by the Hong Kong-based labor advocacy group from June 2011 until the end of last year. Of those, 40 percent occurred among factory workers, as China’s exports suffered a slowdown and its overall economy cooled. “Many manufacturers in China sought to offset their reduced profits by cheating workers out of overtime and cutting back on bonuses and benefits, etc. These cost-cutting tactics proved to be a regular source of conflict with the workforce,” notes the report, “Searching for the Union: The workers’ movement in China 2011-13″ (pdf), which was published on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the report cites a large number of worker protests “caused by the downsizing, closure, relocation, sale or merger of businesses” spurred by the government’s declared policy of tenglong huanniao, or “changing the birds in the cage.” That’s when Beijing has encouraged the closure of factories engaged in lower-tech businesses, including shoes, textiles, and toys. All together, 57 percent of factory worker protests took place in Guangdong, home to the Pearl River Delta manufacturing region, followed by 9 percent in Jiangsu, home to many export factories in the Yangtze River Delta.”

via Behind China’s Labor Unrest: Factory Workers and Taxi Drivers – Businessweek.

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21/02/2014

Who Is WhatsApp’s Neeraj Arora? – India Real Time – WSJ

Another renowned alumnus of IIT!  See https://sites.google.com/site/123iitphysics/iitalumni

“As jaws dropped across the globe at the amount Facebook paid to acquire messaging company WhatsApp on Thursday, the media in India was quick to credit the deal to Neeraj Arora, an Indian who describes himself on his website as “all things business at WhatsApp!”

Mr. Arora is the vice-president of business development for the messaging service.

He studied mechanical engineering at one of the country’s most prestigious education establishments, the Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi, and received his Masters in Business Administration from the Indian School of Business in 2006, made the front page of The Economic Times on Friday with the headline, “This Chat is Laced with Indian Masala.”

Mr. Arora’s success story fits the beloved script of an Indian making a mark in California’s Silicon Valley or anywhere else in the U.S. for that matter.

He spent four years handling corporate development for Google Inc. before joining WhatsApp when it was still a fledgling startup in 2011.

Prior to Google, he was part of the Investments and Corporate Strategy teams at Times Internet Limited, a subsidiary of the Times of India Group, and an engineer and “self learnt hacker” at mobile file sharing company Accellion  Inc., according to his LinkedIn profile.”

via Who Is WhatsApp’s Neeraj Arora? – India Real Time – WSJ.

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21/02/2014

* Even China’s Economists Are Singing the Blues – China Real Time Report – WSJ

It’s all relative.  To any developed nation, a GDP growth of just over 7% would look absolutely marvellous!

“China’s state media have long accused foreign analysts of being too bearish on the Chinese economy. Those analysts looking in from the outside are often said to be too eager to be “chanting decline”—chang shuai—when it comes to the economy’s prospects.

This time around, China’s own economists seem to be chanting a pessimistic tune about growth prospects. Perhaps they are not quite as negative as those pesky foreign counterparts—who according to at least one report China’s state media are being told to avoid—but they are increasingly outspoken about slowing growth and rising financial risk.

“We are now in a painful stage,” economist Wang Luolin told a seminar this week.  “Let’s not try to dress things up,” said the consultant to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank.

Yu Bin, a senior researcher at the influential Development Research Center under the State Council, took a similarly pessimistic view.

“The fact is, China’s economic growth is facing substantial downward pressure,” he said. “I don’t think we should get our hopes up for this year’s growth.”

China’s growth has been slowing amid a recovering global economy coupled with weak domestic demand. The days of double-digit expansion are long gone. Economic growth slipped to 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year from 7.8% in the third – and many economists see a further slackening ahead.

“We expect the economic growth rate to be just above 7% this year, and that’s about it,” Mr. Yu said. That would be well below the 7.7% expansion in all of 2013.

Mr. Yu added that all three big drivers of China’s growth — investment, consumption and exports— are looking weak.”

via Even China’s Economists Are Singing the Blues – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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21/02/2014

India doubles Iran oil imports in Jan from Dec -trade | Reuters

India’s oil imports from Iran more than doubled in January from a month earlier, with one state refiner returning from a three-month break as a buyer after sanctions on Tehran were eased due to the interim deal on its nuclear programme.

Yet, the jump may not signify a sudden flood of Iran’s oil to the market as clients bump up imports. India was able to take more of the crude because it earlier cut its buys the most among Tehran’s top clients and more than what was needed under the Western sanctions aimed at Iran’s disputed nuclear ambitions.

India’s oil purchase from Iran in January surged to 412,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from 189,100 bpd in December and 44 percent higher than a year ago, data compiled by Reuters showed.

January shipments from Iran were the highest since February 2012, shortly after new toughened sanctions from the United States and Europe went into effect, the data also showed. Iran was also India’s second biggest supplier for a month for the first time since March 2012, the data showed.

The big jump last month brings India’s imports from Iran over April-January to about 201,000 bpd, still a decline of 26 percent from the same 10 months a year earlier.

That’s below a target of 220,000 bpd for the fiscal year that ends March 31, but if imports are held at close to the January levels, the earlier cuts could be wiped out.

via India doubles Iran oil imports in Jan from Dec -trade | Reuters.

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20/02/2014

China training for ‘short, sharp war’, says senior US naval officer – FT.com

China has been training for a “short, sharp war” against Japan in the East China Sea, a senior US military officer has claimed, in comments that underline the growing military tensions in the western Pacific.

Disputed territory

Captain James Fanell, director of intelligence for the US Pacific Fleet, said that a large-scale Chinese military exercise conducted in 2013 was designed to prepare forces for an operation to seize disputed islands in the East China Sea, which Japan calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu.

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise – Mission Action 2013,” Capt Fanell said at a navy conference last week in San Diego.

“We concluded that the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] has been given the new task of being able to conduct a short, sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be an expected seizure of the Senkakus,” he added.

Conducting a training exercise is very different from having an actual plan to seize the islands. For years, the Chinese military has staged exercises designed to mimic a possible invasion of Taiwan.

However, the comments about China’s military training plans come at a time of considerable tension surrounding the contested islands. The regular presence of both Chinese and Japanese vessels and aircraft in the region has raised the risk of an accident that could spark a wider confrontation.

In December, China declared an air defence identification zone for the East China Sea, which the US and many other countries in the region interpreted as an attempt to cement its sovereignty claim over the disputed islands.

Although Capt Fanell’s remarks were unusually blunt in their assessment of China’s intentions, they represent a growing tide of anxiety from senior US officials about Beijing’s ambitions in both the East China Sea and South China Sea.

Earlier in February, Danny Russel, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, warned “there are growing concerns that this pattern of behaviour in the South China Sea reflects incremental effort by China to assert control over the area”. He said that China’s recent actions had “created uncertainty, insecurity and instability in the region”.

Capt Fanell said that Chinese maritime training had shifted in character in the second half of 2013 to prepare for “realistic maritime combat” that its navy might encounter. Last year, it conducted nine operations in the western Pacific that were designed to “practise striking naval targets”.

“I do not know how Chinese intentions could be more transparent,” he said. When Beijing described its activities as the “protection of maritime rights”, this was really “a Chinese euphemism for the coerced seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbours”, Capt Fanell said.

via China training for ‘short, sharp war’, says senior US naval officer – FT.com.

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20/02/2014

Indian govt approves Rs 650 crore for Nano mission – The Times of India

Union Cabinet on Thursday gave its approval for continuation of Nano mission – a mission on Nano Science and Technology – in its second phase in the 12th Plan Period (2012-17) and sanctioned Rs 650 crore for the purpose.

Nano Technology is a knowledge-intensive and “enabling technology” which is expected to influence a wide range of products and processes with far-reaching implications for the national economy and development.

“The mission’s programmes will target all scientists, institutions and industry in the country. It will also strengthen activities in nano science and technology by promoting basic research, human resource development, research infrastructure development, international collaborations, orchestration of national dialogues and nano applications and technology development”, said an official statement of the government.

The Nano mission, in this new phase, will also make greater effort to promote application-oriented R&D so that some useful products, processes and technologies also emerge. It will be anchored in the Department of Science and Technology and steered by a Nano Mission Council chaired by an eminent scientist.

The government had launched the Nano mission in May 2007 as an “umbrella capacity-building programme”.

As a result of the efforts led by the Nano mission, India is at present amongst the top five nations in the world in terms of scientific publications in nano science and technology (moving from 4th to the 3rd position).

The Nano mission itself has resulted in about 5000 research papers and about 900 Ph.Ds and also some useful products like nano hydrogel based eye drops, pesticide removal technology for drinking water, water filters for arsenic and fluoride removal and nano silver based antimicrobial textile coating.

Under the mission, Indian scientists have been given access to global state-of-the-art facilities like the Photon Factory at Tsukuba, Japan and PETRA III in Hamburg, Germany.

via Govt approves Rs 650 crore for Nano mission – The Times of India.

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20/02/2014

Indian govt clears plan to create new forest cover – The Hindu

Government on Thursday cleared a plan to create new forest cover and improve the quality of existing forests with an expenditure of Rs. 13,000 crore in the 12th Plan.

File photo of affrostation initiatives taken on mine-spoit lands in Salem. Government has approved Rs. 13,000 crore outlay to increase the tree cover in the nation.

Besides the two components, which are to be implemented through various measures including decentralisation of forest governance, the proposed National Mission for a Green India (GIM) as a Centrally Sponsored Scheme will also strive to achieve increased forest-based livelihood income of households living in and around the forests.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday approved the proposal of the Ministry of Environment and Forests.

The objectives of the Mission during 12th Plan period includes increased forest/tree cover and improved quality of forest cover in two to eight million hectares, along with improved ecosystem services including biodiversity, hydrological services, increased forest-based livelihood income of households, living in and around the forests, and enhanced annual CO2 sequestration (process of capture and long term storage of CO2).

via Govt clears plan to create new forest cover – The Hindu.

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