Archive for April, 2014

08/04/2014

Singapore Airlines to Start First-Ever A380 Superjumbo Flights into India – India Real Time – WSJ

Singapore Airlines Ltd.C6L.SG +0.68% will be the first commercial carrier to operate Airbus A380 superjumbos into India next month, after authorities there lifted a years-long ban on the world’s biggest jetliner.

The first A380 delivered to Singapore Airlines arrives at the Airbus Delivery Centre in Toulouse Blagnac, southern France, in this file picture taken October 15, 2007. Reuters

Singapore’s flag carrier says starting from May 30 it will deploy the double-decker A380, which seats up to 471 passengers, on daily flights to New Delhi and Mumbai, India’s two largest aviation hubs.

Those flights will replace two existing daily services currently flown by smaller Boeing 777 aircraft that are timed about 90 minutes apart, helping boost cost efficiencies for the airline. Another daily 777 service to both cities will remain unchanged, according to the airline.

Major airlines have been lobbying to fly the A380 into India since the aircraft’s commercial launch more than six years ago. Analysts say it will help alleviate worsening congestion at India’s major international gateways, particularly since the number of passengers is expected to rise in the coming years.

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India prevented the A380’s entry for years because the government feared that foreign carriers would gobble up passenger traffic from state-owned Air India and other domestic carriers using the large planes. None of India’s carriers operate the jumbo jet.

India’s civil-aviation ministry finally lifted the unofficial ban in January, permitting A380 flights to and from New Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Bangalore as part of efforts to liberalize the aviation sector and revive growth.

Nine of the 10 airlines that currently operate A380s have scheduled flights into India, with at least five having expressed interest in flying the large jet into the country.

via Singapore Airlines to Start First-Ever A380 Superjumbo Flights into India – India Real Time – WSJ.

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08/04/2014

Growth Not Good Enough: Chinese City Changes the Rules – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Fast growth is no longer the fast track on the official career path.  At least that’s what the city of Shenyang is trying to tell its Communist Party cadres.

According to the People’s Daily, the Shenyang government is changing its rating system for officials, lowering the scores for economic development and GDP growth while adding points for “reform and innovation” and  environmental protection (in Chinese).

Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning province and the largest city in northeastern China, used to be the home of the nation’s iron and steel industry and was best known for its forest of smokestacks and chimneys. Now the city is hoping to reduce its dependence on heavy industry and erase its reputation for soot and smog.

The newspaper said that “food and drug safety” and “public health and safety” will be added to improving people’s livelihood, increasing employment and ensuring housing security in the calculations of which officials get promoted – and which fall behind.

An official at the municipal government confirmed that the change had been made though he was unable to provide further details on the actual scoring system.

China’s Communist Party chief Xi Jinping said in November last year that China could no longer “choose its heroes according to economic growth records alone.” Improvements in daily life, social progress, environmental protection and other indicators all had to be taken into account, he added.

Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at the annual session of parliament in March, also tried to address mounting public concerns over the pollution that has accompanied economic growth by saying that China was no longer chasing fast growth at any price. He said employment was now the government’s top concern.

Chen Haibo, mayor of Shenyang, has echoed those sentiments.

“The threshold for environmental protection will be much higher this year,” he said at a meeting of the local legislature early this year.

The mayor also noted that Shenyang’s economic growth target would be 9% this year – its lowest level in over a decade. Last year, growth in Shenyang came in at 10%, down from 11% the previous year, according to the provincial government’s official news site.

China has some of the best environmental laws on the planet, but the rewards for breaking them have long outweighed the penalties. If Shenyang follows through, and other cities follow suit, it could be very good news for China’s environment.

via Growth Not Good Enough: Chinese City Changes the Rules – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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07/04/2014

Why China Needs Such Rapid GDP Growth: More Jobs – Businessweek

As China frets about meeting its target of about 7.5 percent growth in 2014, it’s time for more stimulus. The State Council, China’s cabinet, announced plans this week to further expand railways across the country, renovate dilapidated urban housing, and provide new tax breaks for small businesses. Many analysts are expecting a return to looser credit policies this year as well.

But what China considers unacceptable levels of gross domestic product growth would be the envy of most other countries. So why do China’s leaders demand such rapid rates of economic expansion?

A clue to that is found in Premier Li Keqiang’s recent work report, China’s version of a state of the union speech. Creating enough jobs—mentioned 11 times in the document released on March 5—is what drives Chinese officials’ obsession with fast-rising GDP.

China needs high levels of growth—at least 7 percent, says Li—to ensure enough jobs for 7.2 million college grads and 10 million people flooding cities from the countryside every year. China’s leaders have set a target of producing at least 10 million jobs this year, and a record-high 13.1 million urban jobs were added last year. “Employment is the basis of people’s well-being,” Li said in the work report. “We will steadfastly implement the strategy of giving top priority to employment.”

The trouble is, new stimulus mainly means more investment-driven expansion, which already accounts for about half of the economy. That’s problematic given industrial overcapacity and soaring debt levels held by local governments and companies. And while it indeed boosts the headline GDP number, it doesn’t always create lots of jobs. Heavy industries such as steel, aluminum, and real estate construction, which have rapidly expanded particularly in the years following China’s 2009 stimulus, tend to be capital-intensive rather than labor-intensive.

The country has struggled in recent years to substantially boost the portion of its economy driven by consumption and the job-creating service sector. The plan to cut taxes may provide some support toward that goal. Unfortunately, more train tracks and urban housing may instead set China back.

via Why China Needs Such Rapid GDP Growth: More Jobs – Businessweek.

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07/04/2014

Housing Cools in China; Developers Face Loans They Can’t Repay – Businessweek

Amid a cluster of half-built brick townhouses surrounded by peach groves on the outskirts of Fenghua city, workers could be seen taking down metal scaffolding and hauling away steel plates last month. They had heard that Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate, the company building the housing development called Peach Blossom Palace, was insolvent. “The developer owed us hundreds of thousands of yuan” for scaffolding and steel, said workers Xie and Wang, who would only give their surnames. “We are taking these materials back for now because there’s no work here.”

Unfinished houses at Zhejiang Xingrun’s development in Fenghua

The collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun may signal the start of a shakeout among the nation’s almost 90,000 real estate companies. After China began allowing private homeownership in 1998, homebuilders binged on easy credit from banks and other lenders. Now many developers are struggling with debt as thousands of apartment buildings across the country sit empty and the government makes it harder to borrow. CBRE Global Investors says there are about 30,000 developers after small construction companies and those formed for only one project are eliminated. “That is far too many, even for a country as large as China,” says Richard van den Berg, country manager for China at CBRE. “Consolidation needs to take place.”

Home prices in China have climbed 60 percent since 2008, when the government began a 4 trillion yuan ($645 billion) stimulus program to counter the effects of the global financial crisis. Former Premier Wen Jiabao began trying to cool the property market in 2010, imposing higher down-payment requirements, raising interest rates on loans for second-home purchases, and increasing construction of low-cost housing. Li Keqiang, who succeeded Wen in March 2013, further tightened credit in June, in part by cracking down on nonbank lenders.

About 67 percent of housing under construction in China last year was in less affluent cities such as Fenghua, according to Nomura Holdings (NMR). About 120 miles south of Shanghai, with a population of 500,000, Fenghua is best known as the birthplace of former Chinese nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek. The city is filled with pawn shops, textile and garment factories, and empty residential buildings.

via Housing Cools in China; Developers Face Loans They Can’t Repay – Businessweek.

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07/04/2014

Two Visions for India’s Economy, Sort Of – India Real Time – WSJ

India’s national election, which kicked off Monday, is a contest of old-fashioned socialism versus market liberalism, of handouts to the poor versus pro-growth reforms that will benefit all. Right?

Sort of. At least judging by the two main contenders’ official platforms.

The Bharatiya Janata Party — out of power for a decade — looks set to win big this year, helped by its popular prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who promises to reboot India’s economy with a combination of smart policy and able administration.

But now that the BJP has at last released its election manifesto after multiple delays, it’s easier to see where exactly its economic policy ideas differ from the incumbent Congress party’s – and, perhaps more interestingly, where they don’t.

Both parties promise to revitalize India’s manufacturing sector, long a laggard amid the country’s economic rise. Both say they will implement a national goods and services tax, known elsewhere as a value-added tax. Both want to create a “single-window system” to expedite land, environmental, power and other approvals for investors. Both back the current system of food subsidies, though the BJP highlights that the program should be efficient and corruption-free.

And both parties want to build high-speed rail, stem inflation, modernize infrastructure, make housing affordable, create jobs, expand cities and make taxation more predictable. (Though the BJP wins style points for referring to retroactive taxes as “tax terrorism.”) The BJP even matches the splashiest item in Congress’s manifesto — a commitment to providing “universal and quality health care for all Indians” — with its own call for universal health care.

All of that said, the manifestos alone do give the BJP an edge in terms of structural reforms that many economists, businesses and investors have long craved from India’s government.

The party’s manifesto speaks of addressing “over-regulation” in business and “bottlenecks” in the delivery of public services. Its section on developing agriculture focuses more on investing in productivity-enhancing technology than on increasing government subsidies, which the Congress manifesto notes as a major achievement of its decade in office.

The BJP says it will “rationalize and simplify the tax regime,” which the party calls “currently repulsive for honest taxpayers.” The Congress manifesto merely reiterates its support for the Direct Tax Code, an earlier legislative effort to eliminate tax distortions and improve compliance that has stalled in Parliament’s lower house.

The BJP also says it will review India’s creaking labor laws, which it decries as “outdated, complicated and even contradictory.” The Congress manifesto, meanwhile, “recognizes the need for creating flexibilities in the labor market” while redoubling its commitment to “protecting the interests of labor through more progressive labor laws.” The World Bank said in a report last year that India’s “cumbersome and complex” labor policies “have unambiguously negative effects on economic efficiency.”

via Two Visions for India’s Economy, Sort Of – India Real Time – WSJ.

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07/04/2014

Facts and figures for India’s 2014 general election | India Insight

Voting in the 2014 election begins on April 7. More than 814 million people — a number larger than the population of Europe — will be eligible to vote in the world’s biggest democratic exercise.

Voting will be held in nine stages, which will be staggered until May 12, and results are due to be announced on May 16. Elections to state assemblies in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim will be held simultaneously.

Around 930,000 polling stations will be set up for the month-long election using electronic voting machines, first introduced in 2004.

Uttar Pradesh has the most eligible voters (134 million); Sikkim the lowest (about 362,000). Male voters constitute 52.4 percent of the electorate but women voters outnumber men in eight regions — Puducherry, Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram, Daman & Diu, Meghalaya, Goa and Arunachal Pradesh.

About 23 million eligible voters have been enrolled in the 18 to 19 age group, nearly 3 percent of India’s voters.

Of India’s 814.5 million eligible voters, 28,314 identify themselves as transgender and their gender is listed as “other”. There are 11,844 non-resident Indians registered to vote in the election this year.

Since introducing photo voter ID cards and electoral rolls in 2009, 98 percent of India’s eligible voters have the former, 96 percent have the latter.

Electronic voting machine security includes: transported under armed escort and stored in strong rooms, with a double lock system and guarded 24×7 by armed police, and CCTV coverage. Also, parties/candidates allowed to keep a watch on them.

Nearly 10 million officials (including police for security) will be deployed.

Uttar Pradesh has the most Lok Sabha seats (80) while the states of Nagaland, Sikkim, Mizoram and the union territories have one seat each.

A candidate can spend up to 7 million rupees ($116,350) for his election campaign in Delhi and all states except Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Sikkim. For these states and other union territories, the limit is 5.4 million rupees ($90,000).

A candidate for the Lok Sabha makes a deposit of 25,000 rupees ($415) at the time of filing the nomination. If the candidate fails to get a sixth of the total valid votes polled, this amount is forfeited. Nearly 85 percent of the candidates lost their security deposit in the 2009 election.

In the 15th Lok Sabha, around 78 percent of the members have a graduate, post-graduate degree or a doctorate.

Malkajgiri in Andhra Pradesh is the biggest Indian constituency in terms of voters with around 2.95 million electors; Lakshadweep is the smallest with 47,972 voters. In Lower Dibang Valley district of Arunachal Pradesh, Hukani polling station has 22 registered voters. Officials travel 22 km on foot to get there.

In the 2009 election, 363 political parties took part. The Bahujan Samaj Party contested the maximum number of seats (500 out of 543), followed by the Congress (440) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (433).

The last general election had a voter turnout of over 58 percent. Nagaland (89.99 percent) had the highest turnout while Jammu & Kashmir (39.68 percent) saw the lowest.

Namo Narain of the Congress party beat his BJP rival by 317 votes in Rajasthan’s Tonk Sawai Madhopur constituency — the smallest margin of victory in the 2009 election.

“Basic Minimum Facilities” for polling stations include drinking water, shed, toilet, ramp for disabled voters.

Voters will have a “None of the Above” option on voting machines.

The indelible election ink that is applied while electors cast their votes is manufactured by Mysore Paints & Varnish Limited, a Karnataka government undertaking.

Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party has emerged as the favourite in opinion polls, which reflect waning support for Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party that wrested power from the BJP in 2004.

Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, will also be challenged by a clutch of regional parties that are vying for power as part of a “third front” opposed to both the Congress and the BJP.

Also in the race is Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, which made a stunning debut in Delhi elections last year and is now eyeing a national presence on the anti-corruption plank.

via Facts and figures for India’s 2014 general election | India Insight.

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07/04/2014

Taiwan anti-China protest exposes island’s nationalist divide | Reuters

A chaotic sit-in to protest against a trade deal with China has shut down Taiwan’s parliament and exposed deep divisions over the island’s identity after seven decades of living apart from its vast, undemocratic rival across the strait.

A protester sits in front of a pile of chairs used to block the door, inside Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament, during protest to oppose the controversial trade pact with mainland China, in Taipei April 5, 2014. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

The mainly student protesters, who proffer sunflowers as a symbol of hope, denounce the pact as an arrangement suiting Taiwan’s wealthy. They say it will lead to mass encroachment by China, and its one-party mindset, on the island’s cherished democratic values and institutions.

Its advocates, including Taiwan’s president and his government, say it is a vital step to normalizing relations with Beijing and will provide jobs and improve living standards.

Protesters demand the repeal of the trade deal, which was only one step away from parliamentary ratification before the sit-in began.

They also demand lawmakers pass an oversight mechanism of trade pacts with the mainland before they pass the current trade deal – a move the government has agreed to in principle and could potentially pave the way toward an end to the stalemate.

“The government has fallen into the palm of big money here in Taiwan,” said Miles Lin, 25, the main protest leader. “That, combined with pressure from Beijing, drove them to ram this pact through the legislature.”

via Taiwan anti-China protest exposes island’s nationalist divide | Reuters.

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02/04/2014

BBC News – China Maoming environmental protest violence condemned

Authorities have condemned an environmental protest in southern China that turned violent, calling it “serious criminal behaviour“.

Residents ride past a burning public security kiosk during a protest against a chemical plant project, on a street in Maoming, Guangdong province, 1 April 2014

Residents in Maoming, Guangdong province, on Sunday protested against the construction of a petrochemical plant that manufactures paraxylene.

Violence broke out, with reports of several injured protesters. On Tuesday, the protests spread to Guangzhou.

Protests are rare in China, where it is illegal to protest without a permit.

Hundreds of Maoming residents marched on the streets on Sunday, protesting against the proposed plant. Some protesters said turnout was more than 1,000.

Clashes with police broke out, with reports of tear gas being fired at protesters. Photos and videos posted on Chinese social media appeared to show injured protesters, police chasing demonstrators with batons, and burning cars.

Smaller protests appeared to continue, spreading to Guangzhou, the provincial capital, on Tuesday.

via BBC News – China Maoming environmental protest violence condemned.

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02/04/2014

India’s Greatest Hits: A List of Foreign Firms Grappling With the Government – India Real Time – WSJ

When India’s top court Wednesday ordered Samsung Electronics Co.005930.SE +1.34%’s chairman to appear in person to face criminal charges, it was par for the legal course here.

Judges and other authorities in India have been cracking down on international firms in recent years, making some executives wary of investing in Asia’s third-largest economy.

Many of the best-known global names that have made the biggest bets on India are facing massive tax claims and other actions.

Here is a short list of some of the international companies – which together have invested billions in India – and are now stuck in high-profile battles with authorities:

*Samsung Electronics Co.– India’s Supreme Court ordered Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-hee to come to India within six weeks to face criminal charges in the city of Ghaziabad or risk arrest. The order was in connection to a four-year-old case in which an Indian supplier claims a Samsung subsidiary failed to pay bills totaling more than $1 million. Samsung said its chairman has nothing to do with the case in which it claims Samsung is the victim of fraud.

*Vodafone Group PLC–The British telecommunications giant has been struggling for years to avoid paying a $2 billion-plus tax bill connected to its 2007 purchase of a 67% stake in the Indian operations of Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.0013.HK +0.48% Vodafone fought the government in court and won In 2012. Soon after, however, New Delhi retroactively changed its laws to allow it to tax the transaction. Vodafone maintains that it does not owe the money and says it is in discussions with the government.

*Nokia Corp.—Indian tax authorities say the Finnish phone company claimed a wrongful exemption on exports and owes billions of dollars in allegedly unpaid taxes. NokiaNOK1V.HE +1.19% denies it owes the tax bill, but the Supreme Court of India said the company has to pay the taxes before its Indian assets can be transferred to Microsoft Corp.MSFT +1.04% as part of its $7.5 billion acquisition of Nokia’s businesses.

*Google Inc.–Internet giant GoogleGOOG +1.80% is being investigated for allegedly anti-competitive policies related to its advertising and search businesses. Last month, India’s antitrust body imposed a 10 million rupee penalty on the Internet search leader, to punish it for failing to cooperate with its probe. Google said last week that it is compliant with Indian law and cooperating with the investigation.

International Business Machines Corp.IBM +1.03%—India last year asked IBM to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in back taxes left over from alleged underreported income. IBM said it is challenging the tax bill.

*Sahara Group—The property-to-media conglomerate is not a foreign firm, but still a telling tale for any international executive thinking of ignoring Indian courts. The group’s flamboyant founder, Subrata Roy, was jailed after failing to show up at hearings connected to a case where his group is accused of allegedly failing to return money to bond holders. Sahara said it is trying to raise the money to pay back investors and has asked that its chairman be released to help it come up with the money

via India’s Greatest Hits: A List of Foreign Firms Grappling With the Government – India Real Time – WSJ.

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01/04/2014

The economy: On cloud nine trillion | The Economist

SOME economic journalists are like stormbirds: they come alive when financial clouds gather and the thunder rolls. Your correspondent’s career has been different. He has migrated away from trouble, escaping crisis-struck Britain for booming India in 2007, then leaving that country before it sank into its sad, stagflationary funk. This will be his last week covering China’s economy—which is just as well, given the whiff of ozone in the air.

This month China’s corporate-bond market suffered its first default since it began in its present form, a widely watched manufacturing index fell for the fifth month in a row, and officials in one eastern county rushed to placate worried depositors lining up to withdraw money from two small banks. It would seem a good time for a fair-weather bird to fly away.

But China remains a resilient economy. It still has substantial room for error and a lot of room to grow. Although it is already a very big economy (its $9 trillion GDP is bigger than 154 other economies combined) it is not yet a very rich one. Its income per head (at market exchange rates) is only 13% of America’s and ranks below that of more than 80 other economies.

Because China is already the world’s second-biggest economy, it attracts scrutiny that smaller economies escaped when they were at a similar stage of maturity. Observers expect it to pass financial thresholds that other catch-up economies did not cross until much later in their development. This month’s bond default, for example, represents a painful but necessary step towards maturity for China’s capital markets. Most commentators saw it as a woefully belated coming-of-age. But Japan did not record its first bond default until the late 1990s, when its standard of living was 3.7 times China’s today. Likewise back when South Korea had the same income per person as China enjoys now, foreigners paid little attention to its monthly manufacturing wobbles.

The heft of China’s GDP combined with the modesty of its GDP per person is one of the curiosities of China’s economy. But it is not the only one (see box). Another example is China’s “financial repression”. Its central bank caps the interest rate that banks can pay depositors, imposing an implicit tax on their savings. But in China, unlike other countries, this repression does not discourage saving. In fact, it appears to do the opposite. The country’s households are “target savers”: they squirrel away money to meet a fixed financial goal, such as the down-payment on a home. If their thrift is poorly rewarded, they simply do more to reach their target.

China’s financial repression has therefore proved surprisingly sustainable (although restless depositors have sought higher returns from online funds and wealth-management products). It has contributed to China’s remarkably high rate of saving, which reached over 50% of GDP in 2012. This is more than China can invest at home, obliging it to export some of its saving (typically 2-3% of GDP) abroad. This incurs the wrath of its trading partners. But therein lies a paradox. Even as China is frequently lambasted for excess saving, the same critics also accuse it of excess borrowing. Worrywarts point out that credit in China has increased from about 100% of GDP five years ago to about 135% of GDP today. The central bank’s broader measure of financing (which includes the bond market and some bits of shadow banking among other items) is 180%.

How can an economy suffer from both excess saving and excess borrowing? This riddle is best answered with a textbook parable. Consider a one-farm economy, which yields a GDP of 100 ears of corn. The farmer gives half to a fieldhand as wages and keeps the rest for himself. The fieldhand eats half of his wages and lends the remainder (25 ears) to the farmer. The farmer now has 75 ears of corn. He eats 25 of them, ploughs 48 back into the field as seed corn for next year’s harvest and lends two to a neighbouring farm.

To an economist, saving means anything not consumed. Therefore this economy, like China’s, has a remarkably high saving rate (the 50% of corn not eaten). But this high saving is combined with heavy domestic borrowing: the farmer has added 25% of GDP to outstanding debt. If, instead of lending corn to the farmer, the fieldhand ate it, saving would fall (because more corn is now being consumed) and so would borrowing (because the farmhand is now consuming his own earnings, rather than lending half of them out).

China’s economy last year harvested over $9 trillion worth of goods and services. Almost half of that output consisted of new capital goods (infrastructure, housing, factories and machinery). This investment rate of about 48% of GDP is among the highest ever recorded. Some of this frantic accumulation has been wasteful: building cities without citizens, and bridges without destinations. It is as if the farmer scattered some seed corn on stony ground, where it failed to take root.

This “malinvestment” is a pity but it is not enough to undermine China’s economic future. The country, as its critics suggest, should have consumed these resources rather than squandering them on ill-conceived ventures. If it had done so, its people would be happier. But, it is important to realise, they would not be any wealthier. Consumption, like malinvestment, leaves no useful assets behind. If the farmhand had eaten the wheat his boss scattered on stony ground, he would be better fed but next year’s harvest would be no bigger.

via The economy: On cloud nine trillion | The Economist.

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