Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.
While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.
That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.
“The recovery so far has been led by a bounce-back in production, however, the growth bottleneck has decisively shifted to the demand side, as global growth has weakened and consumption recovery has lagged amid continued social distancing,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
“The expected slump in external demand has likely capped further recovery in industrial production.”
The latest official data showed 84% of mid-sized and small business had reopened as of April 15, compared with 71.7% on March 24.
Hobbled by the coronavirus, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since current quarterly records began.
That has left Chinese manufacturers with reduced export orders and a logistics logjam, as many exporters grapple with rising inventory, high costs and falling profits. Some have let workers go as part of the cost-cutting efforts.
A China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimated that the country’s real unemployment rate, measured using international standards, could exceed 20%, equal to more than 70 million job losses and much higher than March’s official reading of 5.9%.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy head at the statistics bureau, said on Sunday migrant workers and college graduates are facing increasing pressures to secure jobs, while official jobless surveys show nearly 20% of employed workers not working in March.
Chinese authorities have rolled out more support to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China earlier in April cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves and reduced the interest rate on lenders’ excess reserves.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption An empty stretch of the road and Delhi Police barricades to screen commuters during lockdown, at Delhi Gate on April 16, 2020 in New Delhi, India.
India has eased some restrictions imposed as part of a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Most of the new measures are targeted at easing pressure on farming, which employs more than half the nation’s workforce.
Allowing farms to operate again has been seen as essential to avoid food shortages.
But some other measures announced last week, will not be implemented.
This includes the delivery of non-essential items such as mobile phones, computers, and refrigerators by e-commerce firms – the government reversed its decision on that on Sunday.
And none of the restrictions will be lifted in areas that are still considered “hotspots” for the virus – this includes all major Indian cities.
Domestic and international flights and inter-state travel will also remain suspended.
So what restrictions are being eased?
Most of the new measures target agricultural businesses – farming, fisheries and plantations. This will allow crops to be harvested and daily-wagers and others working in these sectors to continue earning.
To restore the supply chain in these industries, cargo trucks will also be allowed to operate across state borders to transport produce from villages to the cities.
Essential public works programmes – such as building roads and water lines in rural areas – will also reopen, but under strict instructions to follow social distancing norms. These are a huge source of employment for hundreds of thousands of daily-wage earners, and farmers looking to supplement their income.
Banks, ATMs, hospitals, clinics, pharmacies and government offices will remain open. And the self-employed – such as plumbers, electricians and carpenters – will also be allowed to work.
Some public and even private workplaces have been permitted to open in areas that are not considered hotspots.
But all businesses and services that reopen are expected to follow social distancing norms.
Who decides what to reopen?
State governments will decide where restrictions can be eased. And several state chief ministers, including Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal, have said that none of the restrictions will be lifted in their regions.
Mr Kejriwal said the situation in the national capital was still serious and the decision would be reviewed after one week.
India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, will also see all restrictions in place, as will the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
The southern state of Kerala, which has been widely acknowledged for its success in dealing with the virus, has announced a significant easing of the lockdown in areas that it has demarcated as “green” zones.
This includes allowing private vehicular movement and dine-in services at restaurants, with social distancing norms in place. However, it’s implementing what is known as an “odd-even” scheme – private cars with even and odd number plates will be allowed only on alternate days, to limit the number of people on the road.
SHANGHAI/HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s President Xi Jinping is enlisting the state-dominated financial sector in a war against a virus outbreak that has killed more than 500, mobilising lenders, brokerages and fund managers to pump resources into stricken parts of the economy.
Answering Beijing’s call, banks are rushing to offer virus-fighting loans at ultra-low rates, investment banks are helping companies issue anti-virus bonds faster, and managers of mutual funds are refraining from selling stocks, to damp market panic.
Concerted efforts to rein in the virus that emerged late last year in the central city of Wuhan highlight the centralized power the ruling Communist Party wields in a sector dominated by state-owned companies.
But the campaign, which has stirred memories of government rescue efforts during a market crash in 2015, deepens concern over corporate governance in China and risks sowing seeds of future trouble.
Wuhan DDMC Culture & Sports Co (600136.SS), a leisure company in the city, won Shanghai Stock Exchange approval to issue bonds of up to 600 million yuan (66.32 million pounds) via a “green channel” created for virus-hit companies, it said on Thursday.
“It’s like receiving charcoal on a snowy day,” the company, whose operations were wrecked by the epidemic, said on its website.
Three other companies – Zhuhai Huafa Group, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical and China Nanshan Development Group – have raised a combined 2.1 billion yuan ($301 million) this week by issuing bonds via the interbank market, to fund virus-battling efforts.
Proceeds from the debt issuance, which won quicker-than-usual approval from regulators, will fund drug discovery programmes and hospital construction, the companies said.
Regulators have also asked banks to inject cheap funds into virus-stricken areas, and not to withdraw loans from companies suffering the impact. Sectors such as tourism, transport and leisure are the worst-hit.
Bank of Suzhou, in the eastern province of Jiangsu, vowed to cut financing costs for hundreds of small corporate clients and bolster lending.
For companies such as food producers, logistics firms and makers of anti-virus drugs, it will cut the rate on loans by 10 basis points below the lending benchmark, to stand as low as 3.98%.
A loan officer at Bank of China promised special treatment for those defaulting because of virus fallout, saying the central bank would cap interest on loans to firms with operations critical to beating the virus, such as makers of masks and drugs.
He added, “Such companies will enjoy the lowest possible rates.”
But the orchestrated support also triggered concerns of moral hazard among some.
“I’m afraid many companies about to go bankrupt will come and say their businesses are affected by the virus outbreak,” said a bond fund manager, who declined to be named.
A flurry of government support has helped stabilise stocks in China’s equity market after a plunge on Monday.
Regulators have told major mutual fund companies and insurers not to cut net equity positions this week, and urged brokerages to limit short-selling activities by clients, said sources who sought anonymity.
Fund managers were also nudged to do their bit. China’s fund association, which is supervised by the securities regulator, said employees at 26 mutual fund houses had put their own money – or more than 2 billion yuan ($287 million) – into fund products since Monday.
The government has also nudged its 49 percent-owned National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF)— created to invest in stalled and new infrastructure projects — to buy a stake in Jet, a separate government source said.
BUSINESSUpdated: Mar 19, 2019 15:53 IST
Reuters
New Delhi
Saddled with more than 1 billion dollars of debt, Jet is struggling to stay aloft.(REUTERS)
The government has asked state-run banks to rescue privately held Jet Airways without pushing it into bankruptcy, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to avert thousands of job losses weeks before a general election, two people within the administration told Reuters.
The finance ministry has in the past year sought regular updates from the banks, led by State Bank of India (SBI), on Jet’s financial health, the people said. In recent months, the banks have provided weekly updates about a revival plan and also sought government advice, the people added.
“Top officials at the finance ministry seek regular updates on the issue,” said an official at one of Jet’s lenders, who did not want to be identified as discussions are private.
Details of the discussion between the finance ministry and bankers on bailing out Jet have not been previously reported.
New Delhi has urged state-run banks to convert debt into equity and take a stake in Jet in a rare move in India to use taxpayer money to save a struggling private-sector company from bankruptcy. The two people plus one more source, however, said this would be “transitory” and lenders could sell the stakes once Jet revives.
The government has also nudged its 49 percent-owned National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) – created to invest in stalled and new infrastructure projects – to buy a stake in Jet, a separate government source said.
Saddled with more than 1 billion dollars of debt, Jet is struggling to stay aloft. It has delayed payments to banks, suppliers, employees and aircraft lessors – some of which have begun terminating lease deals.
The world’s biggest democracy is gearing up for an election next month and its booming aviation sector, which employs close to a million people, has been one of the job-creation success stories that Modi can point to as he seeks a second term.
It is crucial for India that Jet revives as the fall of its second-largest airline could have “disastrous consequences for the investment climate” in the sector, a top government official told Reuters.
The official is concerned that if Jet collapses it could drive up airfare in a fast-growing market, wiping out efforts to bring low-cost air travel to India’s hinterland.
A chaotic end could also make it more difficult for the government to sell a stake in Air India, at least in the short run. Last year, it failed to sell part of its stake in the indebted carrier which currently relies on taxpayer money.
If the government’s plan for Jet succeeds, then state-run banks including SBI and Punjab National Bank (PNB) as well as NIIF would together own at least a third of the airline until they find a new buyer.
Currently, Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways is Jet’s largest shareholder with a 24 percent stake.
India’s finance ministry, SBI, PNB and Jet Airways did not respond to requests for comment.
KINGFISHER’S COLLAPSE
Most companies in Jet’s financial condition would be placed by creditors into India’s new bankruptcy process, two bankers said. However, memories of the chaos sparked by Kingfisher Airlines’ demise in 2012 have prompted the government to seek a more sober road to rescue, they said.
Kingfisher’s bankruptcy caused job losses, lessors lost millions of dollars and banks took massive writedowns.
Putting what is essentially a services provider like Jet through the bankruptcy process would diminish its value because it owns no major assets, unlike a manufacturing company, as most of its planes are leased, said another government official.
If it is pushed into bankruptcy and lessors start pulling even more planes out of service, there would be nothing left for any potential investors, the official said. Already 41 planes have been grounded by lessors in the past three months, leading to flight cancellations.
While on the surface Jet’s future still hangs in the balance with its main shareholder Etihad at loggerheads over the final terms of any deal, behind-the-scenes support from the government means there is likely to be a bailout.
But there are no easy options, one of the sources said, adding that the lenders do not have the expertise to run an airline so they have to decide what to do once they convert their debt into equity.
New Delhi is also backing a proposal for Jet’s founder and Chairman Naresh Goyal to step down if it means saving the airline, another official said. “Saving Jet is not equivalent to saving Goyal,” the official said.
RISING AIRFARE
Jet, with its fleet of 119 planes, once controlled a sixth of India’s domestic aviation market. The 25-year-old airline is also one of only two full-service carriers that flies to international destinations. The other is Air India.
The government ideally wants four to six major airlines to ensure fares are competitive and passengers have greater choice, according to the top government source.
India plans to build 100 new airports costing about $60 billion which would need a steady stream of flights to sustain them, and that is possible only if there are enough airlines, a separate official said.
“The investment in these airports will solely depend on operators willing to have regular flights at affordable prices and one operator going bankrupt does not help,” he said.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 