Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s Jammu and Kashmir state withdrew the security details for 18 separatist leaders and 155 other opposition figures on Wednesday after an Islamist suicide bomber killed 40 paramilitary troopers last week.
The restive mountain state is currently administered by India’s federal government after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party walked out a coalition with a major Kashmiri party.
The separatist leaders had been allocated security personnel to protect them from militants after they entered talks with the federal government.
In a statement, the Jammu and Kashmir state government said it “felt that providing security to these separatist leaders is a wastage of scarce state resources which could be better utilized elsewhere”.
Besides the separatist leaders, the security of 155 political figures and activists – some from mainstream opposition parties – was also withdrawn, the statement said.
“Through this (step), over 1,000 police personnel and over 100 vehicles are freed to do regular police work,” it said.
Both India and Pakistan lay claim to Kashmir and have twice gone to war over it since independence from Britain in 1947. India accuses Pakistan of fomenting decades of sporadic insurgency in its only Muslim-majority state.
Pakistan denies that, saying it only offers political support to the Kashmiri people.
HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) – HSBC Holdings turned in a disappointing annual profit as higher costs and a stocks rout chipped away at its trading businesses, while warning that an economic slowdown in China and Britain would throw up further hurdles this year.
Chief Executive John Flint, rounding off his first year at the helm of the company, said the bank may have to scale back investment plans in order to avoid missing a key target known as ‘positive jaws’ – which tracks whether it is growing revenues faster than costs – for a second straight year.
HSBC remains alert to the downside risks of the current economic environment, economic environment and the future path of interest rates, Flint said, adding the bank was “committed” to the growth targets announced in June.
“We will be proactive in managing costs and investment to meet the risks to revenue growth where necessary, but we will not take short-term decisions that harm the long-term interests of the business,” Flint said on Tuesday, after HSBC reported a lower-than-expected 16 percent rise in 2018 profit before tax.
In June, Flint had said HSBC would invest $15-$17 billion in three years in areas including technology and China, while keeping profitability and dividend targets little changed.
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“The key thing is just to moderate the pace of investments … not to cancel it or change the shape of the investments,” Flint told Reuters.
The bank said it failed to achieve positive jaws in 2018 due to the negative market environment in the fourth quarter.
A combination of U.S.-China trade tensions, central banks turning off the money taps and cooling growth in former hot spots wiped 10 percent off MSCI’s 47-country world stocks index last year, its first double-digit loss in any year since the 2008 global financial crisis.
GROWING BUT SLOWLY
Flint’s comments come as an economic slowdown in China, exacerbated by a bitter Sino-U.S. trade war, challenges HSBC’s strategy of pouring more resources into Asia where it already makes more than three quarters of its profits.
China’s economic growth slowed to 6.6 percent in 2018, the weakest in 28 years, weighed down by rising borrowing costs and a clampdown on riskier lending that starved smaller, private companies of capital and stifled investment.
Pressure on the world’s second-largest economy could increase if Beijing and Washington do not reach a deal soon to end their year-long trade dispute, which is taking a growing toll on export-reliant economies from Asia to Europe.
HSBC’s profits in Asia grew by 16 percent to $17.8 billion last year, accounting for 89 percent of the group profit.
“Clearly our customers are really more cautious and are more thoughtful around this trade war with the U.S.,” Flint said.
“It’s possible that we’ll see slightly lower growth rate this year but we are still going to see a growth rate.”
Since taking over from Stuart Gulliver last February, Flint has largely stuck to the same China-focused strategy as his predecessor while attempting to revive HSBC’s ailing U.S. franchise and putting less emphasis on its investment bank.
Europe’s biggest bank by market value is also being buffeted by headwinds from Britain, which grew at its slowest in half a year in the three months to November as factories suffered from tough global trade conditions and the approach of Brexit.
HSBC joined its London-based peer Royal Bank of Scotland in warning that uncertainties related to Brexit could drive businesses under.
“The longer we have the uncertainty the worse it’s going to be for the customers. Customers are absolutely postponing investment decisions … and that’s been the part of this slowdown that we have seen in the U.K.,” Flint said.
DISAPPOINTING PROFIT
Earlier in the day, HSBC reported a profit before tax of $19.9 billion for 2018, versus $17.2 billion the year before, but below an average estimate of $22 billion, according to Refinitiv data based on forecasts from 17 analysts.
HSBC’s Hong Kong shares dropped as much as 2.7 percent after the earnings announcement.
The stock was down 1.4 percent at 0732 GMT, while the Hong Kong market index was 0.3 percent lower.
HSBC said it would pay a full-year dividend of $0.51 per share, roughly in line with analysts’ expectations. The bank was confident of maintaining the dividend at this level, it said.
The bank’s core capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength, fell to 14 percent at end-December from 14.5 percent at end-2017, mainly due to adverse foreign exchange movements.
Image copyrightAFPImage captionVisitors can inspect a bullet-ridden wall at the site of the massacre
Hundreds of Indians attending a public meeting were shot dead by British troops in the northern Indian city of Amritsar in 1919. Historian Kim Wagner sifts fact from fiction as the UK House of Lords prepares to debate the massacre, including if Britain should apologise.
On 13 April 1919, Sergeant WJ Anderson witnessed first-hand the brutal massacre of hundreds of Indian civilians at Jallianwala Bagh, a public garden in Amritsar city.
“When fire was opened the whole crowd seemed to sink to the ground, a whole flutter of white garments, with however a spreading out towards the main gateway, and some individuals could be seen climbing the high wall,” Anderson later recalled.
“There was little movement, except for the climbers. The gateway would soon be jammed. I saw no sign of a rush towards the troops.”
He had served as the bodyguard of Brigadier General RH Dyer, who had rushed to Amritsar a few days earlier to quell what he believed to be a major uprising.
The crowd of more than 20,000 people, however, were not armed rebels. They were local residents and villagers from the surrounding countryside who had come to listen to political speeches or simply to spend a few hours in the gardens.
It was also the day of the Baisakhi festival, which marked the anniversary of the creation of the Khalsa, or Sikh community, and annually attracted thousands of visitors and pilgrims.
The crowd comprised Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs. Most were men and young boys, including some infants; only a few women were present.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionBrigadier General Dyer rushed to Amritsar to quell what he believed to be a major uprising
When Gen Dyer ordered his troops to cease firing, Jallianwala Bagh resembled a battlefield strewn with corpses. Between 500 and 600 people were killed, and probably three times as many wounded. The exact numbers will never be known for certain but the official death count, reached months later, was just 379.
In recent years, much of the public debate has focused on calls for a formal British apology – the demand has been led by, among others, Indian politician and author Shashi Tharoor.
Queen Elizabeth II visited the memorial at Jallianwala Bagh in 1997 and then Prime Minister David Cameron visited in 2013 – both showed their respect yet carefully avoided making an actual apology.
In December 2017, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, nevertheless urged the British government to make just such a gesture during his own visit to Amritsar.
“I am clear that the government should now apologise, especially as we reach the centenary of the massacre. This is about properly acknowledging what happened here and giving the people of Amritsar and India the closure they need through a formal apology,” he said.
Image copyrightAFPImage captionOn his 2013 visit, Cameron avoided making an actual apology but said the massacre was “deeply shameful”
Exactly what happened at Jallianwala Bagh, however, remains unclear, and a century later, the actual circumstances of the massacre are still shrouded in myth and misconceptions.
There are, for instance, people, often with a nostalgic attachment to the Empire, who still insist that Gen Dyer only opened fire as a final resort when the crowd ignored his warning to disperse – even though the general himself was quite clear that he gave no such warning.
Similarly, the idea that the shooting was necessary and prevented much worse violence conveniently ignores the fact that Indian riots in April 1919 were in each and every case precipitated by British actions.
Factual inaccuracies are also to be found at the Jallianwala Bagh memorial today. Among other things, a sign claims that 120 bodies of the victims of the massacre were recovered from what has become known as the Martyrs’ Well. It’s believed that many people jumped into the well to escape the bullets.
But there is no evidence for this story, which appears to be based on a mix-up with the infamous well at Kanpur city, where the bodies of British women and children were disposed after a massacre in 1857.
Visual depictions of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre also show machine guns being used, when the historical record is quite clear that the shooting was carried out by 50 Gurkha and Baluchi troops armed with rifles.
Gen Dyer also did not orchestrate the massacre, and deliberately trap the crowd inside the gardens, as some popular accounts have it.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThe crowd were not armed rebels but local residents and villagers
In fact, it was British panic and misreading of the political turmoil in India that was at the root of the violence.
While Indian nationalists were looking forward to political reforms and greater self-determination after the end of World War One, the British were still haunted by the spectre of the 1857 “mutiny”, an uprising that is often referred to as India’s first war of independence.
So, when riots broke out in Amritsar on 10 April – and five Europeans and dozens of Indians were killed – the authorities responded with immediate and indiscriminate force. Three days later, Gen Dyer entered what he mistakenly perceived to be a war zone.
Where popular depictions show a peaceful crowd of locals quietly listening to a political speech, Gen Dyer instead perceived a defiant and murderous mob, which had only days before run rampant through Amritsar. When he ordered his troops to open fire, it was an act of fear, spurred on by a disastrously flawed threat assessment.
None of this exonerates Gen Dyer or detracts from the sheer brutality of the massacre – nor does it justify the subsequent torture and humiliation of Indians under martial law. The indisputable violence of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre hardly requires any embellishment. Nevertheless, facts matter if we are to pay our respect to those who died rather than simply perpetuate politically convenient fiction. And to understand is not the same as to condone.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThere are bullet marks on a wall in the garden
Apologies and centenaries, which are essentially about the present rather than the past, are rarely conducive to an honest and nuanced reckoning with history.
An apology from a British government in the throes of Brexit, at the moment, seems highly unlikely. It it indeed doubtful whether an official acknowledgement of the massacre would be construed as more than an act of political expediency.
The question thus remains whether an apology without a genuine understanding of the past can ever provide the “closure” that so many seek.
(Reuters) – British security officials do not support a full ban of Huawei from national telecoms networks despite U.S. allegations the Chinese firm and its products could be used by Beijing for spying, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Huawei, the world’s biggest producer of telecoms equipment, faces intense scrutiny in the West over its relationship with the Chinese government and allegations of enabling state espionage, with the United States calling for its allies not to use its technology.
Although no evidence has been produced publicly and Huawei has denied the claims, the allegations have led several Western countries to restrict its access to their markets.
“We don’t favour a complete ban. It’s not that simple,” one of the sources told Reuters on Monday after a Financial Times report on Sunday said that Britain had decided it could mitigate the risks of using Huawei equipment in 5G networks.
The FT cited two sources familiar with what it said was a conclusion by the government’s National Cyber Security Council (NCSC), which last year said technical and supply-chain issues with Huawei’s equipment had exposed national telecom networks to new security risks. Huawei had no immediate comment.
Any decision to allow Huawei to participate in building next-generation 5G networks would be closely watched by other nations, because of Britain’s membership of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group with the United States.
Britain is an important market for Huawei and last month Vodafone, the world’s second-largest mobile operator, said it was “pausing” the deployment of its equipment in core networks until Western governments give the Chinese firm full security clearance.
Other operators in Europe, including Britain’s BT and France’s Orange have already removed Huawei’s equipment or taken steps to limit its future use.
Two sources said the NCSC did not think it was necessary to completely bar Huawei from British networks, believing it could continue to manage any risks by testing the products at a special laboratory overseen by intelligence officials.
Both sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the position was consistent with public statements made by the NCSC and British officials.
“As was made clear in July’s HCSEC oversight board, the NCSC has concerns around Huawei’s engineering and security capabilities. We have set out the improvements we expect the company to make, an NCSC spokeswoman said on Monday.
CONFIDENCE MEASURES
People with knowledge of the matter said the next NCSC report on Huawei’s position in Britain will criticise its slow response to issues raised in last year’s report and detail tense relations with British officials.
The report, which is expected to be released in coming weeks, does not itself set government policy.
The results of a government review of British telecoms infrastructure is expected later in the year and will include recommendations on managing security risks, including in future 5G networks.
Fellow Five Eyes member Australia has banned Huawei from supplying 5G equipment, while New Zealand said on Monday it would make its own independent assessment of the risk of using Huawei equipment in 5G networks.
Huawei has set up security labs in Britain and Germany aimed at building confidence that its equipment does not contain “back doors” for Chinese intelligence services.
It has also offered to build a cyber-security centre in Poland, where authorities have arrested a Chinese Huawei employee along with an ex-Polish security official.
Pakistan’s multinational naval drill involving 46 nations has wrapped up in the Indian Ocean and, once again, India was not invited.
The Pakistan Navy has hosted the Aman – which means “peace” – exercises every two years since 2007 to promote regional cooperation and stability. India has never been invited, in a sign of the long history of strained ties between the neighbours.
China, Japan and the United States were among the countries taking part in Aman-19, from February 8 to 12, which included maritime conferences, seminars and cross-ship visits, as well as 23 sea operations with main-gun firing, formation movement and replenishment-at-sea.
Shao Shuguang, commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 998 Fleet, was quoted on a Chinese military social media account as saying the exercise had strengthened mutual understanding and trust between the participating navies.
China sent one of its biggest warships, the Kunlun Shan amphibious landing vessel, to the exercise, signalling its close relationship with Pakistan and the key role both nations hold in the Indian Ocean, according to analysts.
“The Pakistan-China relationship is very strong, and this is one more illustration of the strength of the Pakistan-China relationship,” said Madhav Das Nalapat, honorary director of the department of geopolitics and international relations at Manipal University in India.
“China is also now becoming an important maritime power, especially in the Indo-Pacific. By aligning with China, Pakistan hopes to get the synergy of that.
“India by itself cannot have any primacy in the Indian Ocean. But along with the United States, the two countries together can have primacy in the Indian Ocean. India is positioning itself to be allied with the US, but has not yet reached there.”
Tridivesh Singh Maini, assistant professor with the Jindal School of International Affairs in India, said the exercises should be a cause for alarm for India. “They will keep an eye on what’s going on, but they don’t need to be too concerned,” he said.
The military exercise also centred on maritime security to protect strategic economic projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as well as sea lanes from the Persian Gulf.
The US$62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is designed to connect China’s far west region of Xinjiang with Gwadar Port in Pakistan via a network of motorways, railways, oil pipelines and trading hubs.
The project is expected to be finished by 2030, and will provide China with an important trading route to the Middle East and Africa.
“India has very strenuously objected to the name CPEC being given to the part that goes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, but so far nothing has been done,” Nalapat said.
Kashmir has long been a hotbed for competing territorial claims between India and Pakistan. The two countries have fought three wars against each other since their independence from Britain in 1947, and two of those conflicts have centred on the Kashmir territorial dispute.
BEIJING, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday sent a congratulatory message to an event commemorating the 65th anniversary of the “Icebreaking Mission” in China-Britain trade held by Britain’s 48 Group Club.
In the message, Li said that over the past more than 60 years, British friends including the 48 Group Club have been actively promoting trade and cultural exchanges between the two countries, facilitating the process of China’s reform and opening-up, and also enhancing bilateral win-win cooperation.
The “icebreakers” spirit not only shows the willingness of the British people to develop friendly cooperation with China, but also demonstrates that the development momentum of human society towards a more open and inclusive future is unstoppable, Li said.
In 1954, Jack Perry, the founder of London Export Corporation, led a group of 48 British businessmen on a historic trade mission to Beijing and helped deliver one of the first modern-day trade links with China.
The 48 men were the precursors of the 48 Group Club. The trip became known as the “Icebreaking Mission,” and the club members were called “icebreakers.”
The Chinese government speaks highly of the efforts made by the 48 Group Club for promoting China-Britain friendship, and looks forward to the “icebreakers” spirit being passed on and carried forward to make new and greater contributions to deepening friendship between the two peoples, Li added.
Li stressed that China is willing to continue to work together with friends from all walks of life in Britain, on a basis of mutual respect and on equal footing, to continuously strengthen bilateral relations and cooperation, jointly safeguard multilateralism and free trade, and promote the development of an open and inclusive world.
India’s large workforce and improving infrastructure have made it an enticing place to invest
FRANCIS MASCARENHAS/REUTERS
Britain is the largest western investor in India, with businesses channelling $26 billion into the country in the past 18 years.
Companies based in the UK contributed 7 per cent of all foreign direct investment into India last year as their expenditure grew by $847 million, according to research by the CBI, the lobby group, and Grant Thornton, the accounting firm.
British businesses, particularly manufacturers, services providers and retailers, have been increasing their presence in India over recent years. This is partly because of the country’s large workforce, improving infrastructure and the business-friendly policies implemented under Narendra Modi, its prime minister since 2014.
Foreign direct investment is when companies buy capital, such as factories or machines, in a foreign country or purchase assets or shares that give investors control in a foreign business.
Increasing corporate investment is welcome news for Britain’s trade relations with India as it looks to its trading partners outside of the European Union before Brexit in March. Both the UK and EU have said that they want to increase trade flows with India.
British investment in India is ahead of that of the United States and the Netherlands, which contribute 6 per cent to the total. In the EU, the UK invests more than Germany, which contributes 3 per cent, and France, which represents 2 per cent. Worldwide, Britain is behind only Mauritius, Singapore and Japan.
The report, Sterling Assets: Britain Meets India, said that about 40 per cent of British companies had made new investments in India last year, creating more than 50,000 new jobs. British firms are believed to have created about 423,000 jobs in India since 2000.
“There’s no question that India will be a vital trading partner as the UK charts a new future out the EU,” Shehla Hasan, CBI director for India, said. She said that there was a “golden opportunity” for UK companies thanks to economic reforms that she said made India more attractive to entrepreneurs and established businesses.
More than half of British companies operating in India are in the services sector, such as restaurants and hotels, while about a third are manufacturers, which include factories. The chemicals industry has received the lion’s share of British investment in India since 2000 at $12 billion, followed by the drugs and pharmaceuticals sector, at $8.8 billion, and services, at $7 billion.
Since 2000, the state of Maharashtra, where Mumbai is located, has attracted the largest share of British investment.
Central bank chief quits
Urjit Patel resigned as government of India’s central bank on Monday (Callum Jones writes). Mr Patel, who has been grappling with ministerial criticism of the bank’s policies, cited “personal reasons” for his departure.
Raghuram Rajan, a former reserve bank governor, raised concerns over the “impasse” that had pushed his successor to quit. He said: “I think this is something all Indians should be concerned about because strength of our institution is really important.”
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
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