Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
In his “verbal message of thanks”, Mr Xi said he highly appreciated Mr Kim’s support during China’s outbreak and “showed his personal attention to the situation of the pandemic and people’s health” in North Korea, according to state media.
Mr Xi called for more efforts to strengthen co-operation in preventing the spread of the coronavirus, and said China was “willing to continue to provide assistance within its own capacity for [North Korea] in the fight against Covid-19”.
On Friday, North Korean state media reported that Mr Kim had sent a verbal message to the president that “congratulated him, highly appreciating that he is seizing a chance of victory in the war against the unprecedented epidemic”.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Kim Jong-un disappeared from public view for 20 days, before visiting a factory on 2 May
Mr Kim recently went 20 days without appearing in public, and missed the celebration of his grandfather’s birthday – one of the biggest events of the year.
Some media reports claimed he was “gravely ill”, or even dead.
But he then appeared at a fertiliser factory on 2 May – apparently in good health.
On Wednesday, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told a parliamentary committee that there had been no signs the health rumours were true.
“He was performing his duties normally when he was out of the public eye,” a member of the committee, Kim Byung-kee, told reporters afterwards.
The lawmaker said the North Korean leader’s absence could have been down to a Covid-19 outbreak that the authorities in Pyongyang had not reported.
Analysis
By Celia Hatton, Asia Pacific Editor, BBC World Service
For months, North Korea-watchers have questioned Pyongyang’s claims that it has managed to isolate itself from Covid-19.
Admittedly, North Korea was the first country to suspend travel in response to the virus. There are unconfirmed reports that North Korean guards have been ordered to shoot at those who try to cross the lengthy border the North shares with China. However, it will be difficult to completely seal that dividing line for long. North Korea’s underground economy relies on illicit trade with Chinese entrepreneurs.
Beijing has a few good reasons for wanting to help North Korea. On a practical level, China needs to suppress a possible Covid-19 outbreak there if it wants to keep its own population healthy. Beijing also worries about what might happen inside North Korea if the virus takes hold. The North’s decrepit health system would quickly be overwhelmed by an outbreak of Covid-19, and that could threaten the fragile Kim Jong-un regime. Beijing has been Pyongyang’s biggest aid donor for decades, and it will continue to do what it can to keep Mr Kim in power. The alternatives to Kim Jong-un are much riskier for China, which does not want change on its doorstep.
China’s global political interests are also at play. Diplomatically, Mr Xi’s public exchange with Kim Jong-un underlines the seemingly close ties between China and North Korea. Pyongyang has been slow to accept public offers of help from the United States, and peace talks with Washington have stalled. If North Korea appeared to accept Beijing’s help, China would reassert itself as North Korea’s “true” ally in a time of need.
South Korea itself reported 18 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 on Saturday.
Seventeen of them are linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five nightclubs and bars in Seoul’s Itaewon leisure district last weekend, the Yonhap news agency said.
Mayor Park Won-soon ordered nightclubs, bars and hostess venues across the capital to suspend business in response.
“Carelessness can lead to an explosion in infections – we clearly realised this through the group infections seen in the Itaewon club case,” Mr Park said.
Health officials have urged people who have visited the five venues in Itaewon to self-isolate and get tested to prevent additional transmissions. At least 1,500 people signed their entry logs, according to Yonhap.
The new infections brought the nationwide total to 10,840, while the death toll remained unchanged at 256.
Zhuhai police, at the end of the world’s longest sea bridge, use body armour and tear gas in preparation for Macau’s 20th anniversary celebration
Hong Kong is just an hour’s drive away from Macau using the bridge
More than 1,000 police officers took part in the anti-terror drill in Zhuhai. Photo: Toutiao
Armed police in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai held a massive anti-terror drill at its end of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge on Friday morning as part of its preparations for the 20th anniversary of the handover of Macau, when President Xi Jinping is expected to visit the city.
More than 1,000 police officers and 80 vehicles were involved in the exercise, amid
Photos circulated online showed officers in body armour, helmets and shields firing tear gas as they confronted a group of people carrying sticks and wearing black shirts and yellow helmets – attire associated with the protesters in Hong Kong, 60km (37 miles) away from Macau.
The drill was held three weeks before the 20th anniversary of Macau’s return to Chinese administration under the “one country, two systems” policy on December 20.
Police trucks and riot officers during Friday’s exercise at the Zhuhai end of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge. Photo: Toutiao
Security is expected to be tightened when Xi visits the city, in response to the violent clashes in Hong Kong over the past six months, which Beijing has repeatedly blamed on radical protesters.
The former Portuguese colony is connected to Hong Kong and its neighbouring city of Zhuhai, Guangdong province, by the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. It takes about an hour to drive from Hong Kong to Macau via the bridge.
Guo Yonghang, Zhuhai party chief, urged the local police to stay loyal to the party. “[Police] should be loyal and fulfil duty and mission to create a peaceful and stable political and social environment for the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and the celebration of the 20th anniversary of Macau’s reunification to the motherland,” he said.
Macau was returned to China two years after Hong Kong and celebrations of its success under one country, two systems could be overshadowed by its neighbour’s anti-government protests which stemmed from opposition to proposed extradition legislation and have escalated into violence on the streets and in university campuses.
In August, two months after more than 2 million people in Hong Kong took to the streets to protest the now-suspended extradition bill, police in Shenzhen held at least three drills featuring anti-riot exercises involving tear gas, armoured vehicles and water cannon.
Military experts say PLA modernisation brought about during Xi Jinping’s presidency will be the main focus of October 1 celebration in Beijing
It’s necessary for China to ‘show some of its muscle’ amid the trade dispute with the US, observer says
China’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile will be among the military hardware on show on October 1. Photo: Reuters
China plans to show off its most advanced active weapon systems at the upcoming National Day parade, which will be the biggest of the 14 such events it has held over the past seven decades.
The parade, to be held on October 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, will highlight the military modernisation – particularly in nuclear deterrence – that has taken place since President Xi Jinping came to power in late 2012, according to military experts.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) offered a glimpse of those weapons during rehearsals for the parade in downtown Beijing from September 14.
As part of the celebrations, Xi, who also chairs the Central Military Commission, will inspect 48 squads on the ground and more than a dozen airborne squadrons, according to a military insider involved in support services for the parade.
More than a dozen airborne squadrons will take part in the National Day parade. Photo: Kyodo
The squadrons will include the air force’s first stealth fighter, the J-20; the main active warplanes such as the J-10 and J-11B; and armed helicopters like the Z-20. However, the J-8 fighter jet would not appear this year, the source said, confirming that the first interceptor built in China has been formally retired.
“The ground march will be led by several hero forces from the five theatre commands, which is different from previous squads selected from the ground forces, air force and navy,” said the insider, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“The main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA under President Xi’s leadership over the past seven years, with the military overhaul being one of the key achievements.”
Thirty-three of the 48 squads would be “weapon squads”, while the 13 others would be made up of infantry troops from the five theatre commands, the source said.
National Day fireworks in Hong Kong cancelled over safety fears
As part of the PLA’s sweeping military reforms, the army’s previous seven military commands were reshaped into five theatre commands, while the four former general headquarters were dissolved and replaced by 15 small functional departments.
In September 2015, Xi announced the PLA would shed 300,000 troops, cutting its size to 2 million, a move aimed at turning the PLA into a more nimble and combat-ready fighting force on a par with international standards.
Xi also split the former Second Artillery Corps into the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force, with the latter backing up the military’s electronic warfare units in cyberspace and outer space.
Among the 33 weapon squads, the highlights are expected to be the PLA’s strategic nuclear missiles such as the Rocket Force’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-17 hypersonic missile and the sea-launched JL-2, or Big Wave-2.
Adam Ni, a researcher at Macquarie University in Australia, said that showing off different types of missiles on land and sea indicated that the PLA was improving its nuclear deterrence capabilities by perfecting a three-pronged military force structure, or the so-called nuclear triad.
The DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile will be one of the highlights of the parade. Photo: AP
The DF-41 is capable of carrying multiple warheads and many decoys, making it harder to detect than silo-based systems and better able to survive a first strike.
Ni said the DF-41 was China’s next-generation cutting-edge weapon.
“It’s actually an advanced ICBM and has a range to hit practically anywhere in the world, including the continental United States,” Ni said.
“The DF-41 is the ultimate symbol of the destructive potential of Chinese armed forces, just as nuclear weapons are similar symbols of the US and Russia.”
The JL-2 – which has a shorter range of 7,000km (4,350 miles) and can be launched by the PLA Navy’s Type 094 submarines – is unable to hit anywhere on the American continent when launched from submarines in the South China Sea and coastal areas of China.
China tests new warships in live-fire drills near Vietnam
However, China is developing the JL-3, which has a range of about 9,000km; the upgraded version of the JL-2, with a flight test conducted in June, though it is still less than the 12,000km range of the American Trident II.
“China is stepping up its military modernisation, which includes a number of aspects; the land-based aspect is introducing more mobile and survivable missile systems,” Ni said.
“The game change will happen when China is able to hit the whole US continent with its missile submarines in Chinese coastal waters.”
In military terms, survivable refers to the ability to remain mission capable after a single engagement.
The DF-17 is a land-to-land short-range strategic missile capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads. The US intelligence community has estimated that it will reach initial operational capability by 2020. But if the missile is displayed in the parade, that means it is active already.
China conducted two tests of the DF-17 in November 2017, with the first launched from the Jiuquan Space Launch Centre in Inner Mongolia.
An insider said the main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA. Photo: Reuters
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the nuclear weapons that would go on show in the parade would all be strategic missiles designed to improve China’s deterrent capabilities.
The show comes after the PLA delivered a national defence white paper in July stressing its goal to “maintain national strategic security by deterring other countries from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against China”.
Unlike in the past, this year’s report stated that the US and China were now competing superpowers, and that the PLA’s growing forces were developing to the point that they could challenge the US.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said it was also necessary for the PLA to “show some of its muscle” amid the ongoing trade dispute between Beijing and Washington.
“To prevent misunderstanding, most of the weapons are just strategic equipment, not tactical arms, because Beijing still doesn’t want to irritate Washington,” he said.
About 280,000 people were involved in the rehearsals for the parade and related support services, according to Xinhua.
Military experts say PLA modernisation brought about during Xi Jinping’s presidency will be the main focus of October 1 celebration in Beijing
It’s necessary for China to ‘show some of its muscle’ amid the trade dispute with the US, observer says
China’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile will be among the military hardware on show on October 1. Photo: Reuters
China plans to show off its most advanced active weapon systems at the upcoming National Day parade, which will be the biggest of the 14 such events it has held over the past seven decades.
The parade, to be held on October 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, will highlight the military modernisation – particularly in nuclear deterrence – that has taken place since President Xi Jinping came to power in late 2012, according to military experts.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) offered a glimpse of those weapons during rehearsals for the parade in downtown Beijing from September 14.
As part of the celebrations, Xi, who also chairs the Central Military Commission, will inspect 48 squads on the ground and more than a dozen airborne squadrons, according to a military insider involved in support services for the parade.
More than a dozen airborne squadrons will take part in the National Day parade. Photo: Kyodo
The squadrons will include the air force’s first stealth fighter, the J-20; the main active warplanes such as the J-10 and J-11B; and armed helicopters like the Z-20. However, the J-8 fighter jet would not appear this year, the source said, confirming that the first interceptor built in China has been formally retired.
“The ground march will be led by several hero forces from the five theatre commands, which is different from previous squads selected from the ground forces, air force and navy,” said the insider, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“The main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA under President Xi’s leadership over the past seven years, with the military overhaul being one of the key achievements.”
Thirty-three of the 48 squads would be “weapon squads”, while the 13 others would be made up of infantry troops from the five theatre commands, the source said.
National Day fireworks in Hong Kong cancelled over safety fears
As part of the PLA’s sweeping military reforms, the army’s previous seven military commands were reshaped into five theatre commands, while the four former general headquarters were dissolved and replaced by 15 small functional departments.
In September 2015, Xi announced the PLA would shed 300,000 troops, cutting its size to 2 million, a move aimed at turning the PLA into a more nimble and combat-ready fighting force on a par with international standards.
Xi also split the former Second Artillery Corps into the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force, with the latter backing up the military’s electronic warfare units in cyberspace and outer space.
Among the 33 weapon squads, the highlights are expected to be the PLA’s strategic nuclear missiles such as the Rocket Force’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-17 hypersonic missile and the sea-launched JL-2, or Big Wave-2.
Adam Ni, a researcher at Macquarie University in Australia, said that showing off different types of missiles on land and sea indicated that the PLA was improving its nuclear deterrence capabilities by perfecting a three-pronged military force structure, or the so-called nuclear triad.
The DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile will be one of the highlights of the parade. Photo: AP
The DF-41 is capable of carrying multiple warheads and many decoys, making it harder to detect than silo-based systems and better able to survive a first strike.
Ni said the DF-41 was China’s next-generation cutting-edge weapon.
“It’s actually an advanced ICBM and has a range to hit practically anywhere in the world, including the continental United States,” Ni said.
“The DF-41 is the ultimate symbol of the destructive potential of Chinese armed forces, just as nuclear weapons are similar symbols of the US and Russia.”
The JL-2 – which has a shorter range of 7,000km (4,350 miles) and can be launched by the PLA Navy’s Type 094 submarines – is unable to hit anywhere on the American continent when launched from submarines in the South China Sea and coastal areas of China.
China tests new warships in live-fire drills near Vietnam
However, China is developing the JL-3, which has a range of about 9,000km; the upgraded version of the JL-2, with a flight test conducted in June, though it is still less than the 12,000km range of the American Trident II.
“China is stepping up its military modernisation, which includes a number of aspects; the land-based aspect is introducing more mobile and survivable missile systems,” Ni said.
“The game change will happen when China is able to hit the whole US continent with its missile submarines in Chinese coastal waters.”
In military terms, survivable refers to the ability to remain mission capable after a single engagement.
The DF-17 is a land-to-land short-range strategic missile capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads. The US intelligence community has estimated that it will reach initial operational capability by 2020. But if the missile is displayed in the parade, that means it is active already.
China conducted two tests of the DF-17 in November 2017, with the first launched from the Jiuquan Space Launch Centre in Inner Mongolia.
An insider said the main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA. Photo: Reuters
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the nuclear weapons that would go on show in the parade would all be strategic missiles designed to improve China’s deterrent capabilities.
The show comes after the PLA delivered a national defence white paper in July stressing its goal to “maintain national strategic security by deterring other countries from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against China”.
Unlike in the past, this year’s report stated that the US and China were now competing superpowers, and that the PLA’s growing forces were developing to the point that they could challenge the US.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said it was also necessary for the PLA to “show some of its muscle” amid the ongoing trade dispute between Beijing and Washington.
“To prevent misunderstanding, most of the weapons are just strategic equipment, not tactical arms, because Beijing still doesn’t want to irritate Washington,” he said.
About 280,000 people were involved in the rehearsals for the parade and related support services, according to Xinhua.
Chinese government advisers say Beijing has not reached direct intervention point but that could change if the violence continues
Military action would trigger international backlash, observers say, as US expresses concern over reported paramilitary movements and ‘erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy’
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
The unrest in Hong Kong does not yet warrant direct intervention by Beijing despite hardening public sentiment and calls for tougher action in mainland China, according to Chinese government advisers.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council – China’s cabinet – said China would risk damaging its ties with the United States and other major foreign powers, upsetting its own development and losing Hong Kong’s special status if it took the matter directly into its hands.
“I don’t think we need to use troops. Hong Kong police will gradually escalate their action and they haven’t exhausted their means,” Shi said, expressing a view shared by other mainland government advisers and academics.
But he warned that if the violence and chaos continued, it “won’t be too far away from reaching that point”.
A US State Department spokeswoman said the United States was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border and reiterated a US call for all sides to refrain from violence.
She said it was important for the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly” and for Beijing to adhere to its commitments to allow a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.
She said the protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy”.
“The continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said.
brought the city’s air traffic to a halt and triggered a huge backlash on the mainland
, where the public feel they have been wrongly targeted by the increasingly violent protesters. Many demanded the central government take action to end the chaos.
The tension deepened after US President Donald Trump, citing intelligence sources,
to the border with Hong Kong. Trump described the situation in the city as “tricky” and called on all sides to remain “calm and safe”.
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police rolling into Shenzhen began circulating online on Saturday.
Beijing ‘unlikely to intervene’ in Hong Kong as pressure mounts on police
But Shi and others said direct intervention would be too costly to China and would only be used when all other methods had been exhausted.
“As the trade war with the US goes on, Hong Kong’s importance to our financial system is getting bigger,” Shi said. “If Beijing intervenes with too much assertiveness, the US might revoke the preferential status of Hong Kong.”
He was referring to the US’ 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act which gives the city a special status. In June, American lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill requiring the US government to examine Hong Kong’s autonomy annually to decide whether to extend the arrangement.
Losing that status could cripple the operations of many businesses based in Hong Kong, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international affairs expert.
A satellite image appears to show a close-up of Chinese military vehicles at Shenzhen Bay Sports Centre in Shenzhen. Photo: Maxar Technologies
Wang Yong, another specialist on international political economy with Peking University, agreed.
“There would be a lot of opposition from interest groups in the US. Hong Kong is the bridgehead for many multinational corporations and investors from Wall Street to get into the Chinese market,” said Wang, who also teaches at an academy affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Hong Kong and the Chinese government will need to handle this with extra care, so as not to give any ammunition to hawks in the United States.
“If Hong Kong is not handled properly, it could add tensions to the bilateral ties and ruin any prospect of a trade deal.”
China rejects requests for US warships to visit Hong Kong amid protests Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, said direct intervention could also damage China’s ties with other countries.
“The whole world is watching. Beijing has exercised restraint for two months and still hasn’t taken any clear action because this is not an easy choice,” said Pang, who is also a member of the Beijing-based Pangoal Institution, a think tank that advises several ministerial offices.
While some observers said Beijing was under political pressure to end the protests in Hong Kong before October 1 – the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, Shi said the central government would not lose patience so easily.
“National Day [on October 1] is an important time, but the Chinese government is not naive to believe there has to be peace under all heaven then,” he said.
“It’s only a bit more than a month from now, we can almost say for sure the trade war will still be on by then and a major turning point in Hong Kong is not likely to happen. But the celebration must go on.”
Image copyright REUTERS
Image copyright REUTERS
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 