Archive for ‘China Centre for International Economic Exchanges’

22/02/2020

Covid-19 likely to slash US$185 billion off China’s economy in January, February, says ex-IMF official

  • Dips in tourism, consumer spending could reduce first-quarter growth by three or four percentage points, according to Zhu Min, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund
  • Massive effort now needed to help country rebound, economist says
The coronavirus outbreak in China sparked a huge dip in consumer spending. Photo: EPA-EFE
The coronavirus outbreak in China sparked a huge dip in consumer spending. Photo: EPA-EFE
The deadly coronavirus outbreak may have cost China more than 1.3 trillion yuan (US$185 billion) in the first two months of the year because of huge dips in consumer spending and tourism, according to a former senior executive with the

International Monetary Fund.

Zhu Min, who was deputy managing director of the IMF from 2011 to 2016, said during an online presentation on Saturday that the Covid-19 epidemic was likely to have cost the tourism industry about 900 billion yuan in January and February compared with last year, while consumer spending on food and drink was likely to have fallen by about 420 billion yuan.

While online spending – particularly on education and entertainment services – would offset some of the losses, the total drain on the economy over the period could be as much as 1.38 trillion yuan, said Zhu, who is currently head of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing, which organised the presentation.

Based on figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, that would represent about 3.3 per cent of the country’s total retail sales in 2019.

Zhu Min says the Covid-19 epidemic cost China’s tourism industry about 900 billion yuan in January and February. Photo: AFP
Zhu Min says the Covid-19 epidemic cost China’s tourism industry about 900 billion yuan in January and February. Photo: AFP
“The falling consumption in the first quarter could knock down growth by three or four percentage points,” Zhu said. “We need a strong rebound, and that needs 10 times as much effort.”

Consumer spending is a cornerstone of the Chinese economy, accounting for almost 60 per cent of its growth last year. But with the coronavirus still far from contained, many local governments are reluctant to allow public facilities like cinemas and restaurants to reopen.

Despite the grim estimates provided by Zhu, his figures did not include car sales, which fell by 20.5 per cent year on year in January, their largest monthly dip in 15 years, according to figures from the China Passenger Car Association.

Sales in the first two weeks of February fell 92 per cent from the same period of 2019, mainly due to showroom closures. Over the whole of 2020, the coronavirus epidemic could cost China 1 million car sales, or about 5 per cent of its annual total, the industry group said.

In an effort to minimise that impact, Beijing has told local governments to introduce stimulus measures to boost car sales, including raising licence quotas in areas where numbers had previously been restricted to help fight air pollution.

Commerce ministry official Wang Bin said on Friday that the central government expected consumer spending to bottom out in March before rebounding in the second half of the year.

As for the economy as a whole, Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a Beijing-based think tank, said this week that even if national production returned to 80 per cent by the end of February, first-quarter growth would still be less than 4.5 per cent. By comparison, China’s economy grew by 6.4 per cent in the first three months of 2019.

Economists from French bank Natixis forecast China’s gross domestic product to grow by between 2.5 and 4 per cent in the first quarter, depending on how quickly the situation was stabilised and the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus measures.

Source: SCMP
19/06/2019

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to broaden agenda beyond US-China trade war for meeting at G20 summit in Osaka

  • Osaka summit intended to pull bilateral ties away from brinkmanship that has dragged relations to lowest point in decades
  • Trade war just one of the items on the agenda, analysts say, along with principles of relationship, North Korea, and Huawei
The last time the US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met was in Buenos Aires in December. Analysts are confident that their meeting at the G20 Summit in Osaka this month can yield a freeze in the escalation of the trade war. Photo: Reuters
The last time the US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met was in Buenos Aires in December. Analysts are confident that their meeting at the G20 Summit in Osaka this month can yield a freeze in the escalation of the trade war. Photo: Reuters
When Chinese President Xi Jinping meets his US counterpart Donald Trump in Japan at the end of the month they are expected to discuss a broad range of issues, including the trade war, in an effort to stop the relationship from tilting towards sustained confrontation, analysts said.
Neither side has provided an agenda for the meeting on the sidelines of the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, despite confirmation coming from both sides that it was to take place, after weeks of speculation.
A summary of Tuesday’s phone conversation between Xi and Trump published by Xinhua, however, implied that the leaders would cover more strategic issues, leaving the nuts and bolts of a trade deal to their negotiating teams. Meanwhile, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said at a regular press conference on Wednesday that the two leaders would discuss the overall direction of bilateral relations, but he did not elaborate further.
Both China and the United States have confirmed that their leaders will meet in Osaka at the end of June, at a time when US-China relations have nosedived. Photo: AP
Both China and the United States have confirmed that their leaders will meet in Osaka at the end of June, at a time when US-China relations have nosedived. Photo: AP
Wei Jianguo

, a former vice-minister at China’s Ministry of Commerce, predicted that Beijing would use the meeting to make clear a few principles regarding the bilateral relationship.

“It’s inevitable [for China and the US] to have problems in certain fields, but both sides should resolve the problems through dialogue on an equal footing rather than opting for a trade war, a tech war, or a financial war,” said Wei, now a vice-chair at the state-backed China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a think tank.
He added that China would try to convince the US that it had no intention of challenging its global hegemony, but that China’s own “core interests”, including its sovereignty, territorial rights and room to develop, “must be respected”.

A government official in Beijing, who declined to be identified, said China was pinning its hopes on the leaders’ summit to ease general tensions between Beijing and Washington, even though the chances of the leaders reaching any concrete agreements in Osaka was small.

“Without a leaders’ summit, it would be difficult to push ahead the work [to reach agreements] at the ministerial or lower levels,” the source said.

Wei Jianguo, a former vice-minister at China’s Ministry of Commerce, predicted that Beijing would use the meeting to make clear a few principles regarding the bilateral relationship. Photo: Handout
Wei Jianguo, a former vice-minister at China’s Ministry of Commerce, predicted that Beijing would use the meeting to make clear a few principles regarding the bilateral relationship. Photo: Handout

The last summit between Trump and Xi in Buenos Aires in December resulted in a tariff truce and negotiations that continued until early-May. But the talks failed to achieve a deal to end the conflict, resulting in the US more than doubling tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese imports and threatening tariffs on almost all remaining Chinese imports, valued at US$300 billion by the US government.

Tuesday’s telephone call, in which 

Xi told Trump

he was willing to exchange views with Trump on “the fundamental issues” affecting China-US relations, came at a low point in recent China-US relations.

The tariff increase followed the collapse of trade talks in early-May, while hostile rhetoric has spread into the political and military spheres. The US labelled China a “strategic competitor” and accused Beijing of conducting sustained espionage to impede US’s national security, while China blamed the US for trying to thwart China’s development by targeting Huawei and infringing on China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Zhou Rong, a senior fellow from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China, said the two leaders have a long list of issues to talk about this time in addition to trade, including Taiwan, the South China Sea, as well as the treatment of Chinese companies in the US. China can offer to help on some issues but “the US should not force China to swallow bitter fruit it cannot digest”, Zhou said.
Ni Feng, a specialist in Sino-US relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said they would discuss the “overall direction” of their bilateral relationship, including where the two nations could engage in “competition and cooperation”.
He added that North Korea may be on the agenda because “China and the US share the same goal of the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.” 
Xi is set to start

 a two-day state visit to Pyongyang on Thursday.

Another source in the Chinese government, who wished to remain anonymous, said Xi was very likely to bring up the US’ blacklisting of Huawei, China’s leading technology firm. Washington has effectively banned American companies from providing key components to the Shenzhen-based company.
Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer and the daughter of founder Ren Zhengfei, is currently on bail in Canada awaiting extradition to the US to face charges that both she and Huawei violated US sanctions on Iran.
During Tuesday’s call, Xi told Trump that China “hopes the US side can treat Chinese businesses fairly”, Xinhua reported.
China's President Xi Jinping waits for the start of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Friday, Nov. 30, 2018. Photo: AP
China’s President Xi Jinping waits for the start of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Friday, Nov. 30, 2018. Photo: AP

At the same time, Trump and Xi agreed that the two countries’ trade negotiators would start to talk again before the meeting in Japan, raising prospects for a second truce in the trade war, or even a deal to end the conflict.

Matthew Goodman, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote in a note that a Trump-Xi deal on trade-in Osaka “is certainly possible”.

The most likely outcome is similar to the one reached in Buenos Aires in December last year, when Trump and Xi “agreed to a temporary truce while trade negotiators work to hammer out a deal”, Goodman wrote. “This would postpone the worst effects of the current escalation but is unlikely to solve the deepening and dangerous rift in US-China relations”.

The South China Morning Post previously reported that the Osaka summit meeting, which is likely to take place on Saturday June 29, could also be a sit-down dinner between Trump, Xi and their top economic and security aides, as occurred in Buenos Aires. Trump tweeted Tuesday night that he would have an “extended” meeting with Xi in Japan.

Source: SCMP

15/06/2019

Lessons from an old trade war: China can learn from the Japan experience

  • In the last half of the 20th century US worries about a rising Japan led to tariffs and technology mistrust
  • Differences in the Chinese experience may predict a different outcome
Toshiba was one of the companies affected by US actions to prevent the rise of Japan in a trade war that echoes in today’s tensions between the US and China. Photo: Reuters
Toshiba was one of the companies affected by US actions to prevent the rise of Japan in a trade war that echoes in today’s tensions between the US and China. Photo: Reuters
If history is a mirror to the future, the similarities between the spiralling technology stand-off between China and the US and the economic wars waged by the US with Japan – which peaked in the 1980s and 1990s – may be instructive. But there are differences between the two which may predict a different outcome.
The US-Japan economic tensions started in the 1950s over textiles, extended to synthetic fibres and steel in the 1960s, and escalated – from the 1970s to 1990s – to colour televisions, cars and semiconductors, as Japan’s adjusted industrial policy and technology development moved it up the industrial chain.
Boosted by government support, Japan’s semiconductor industry surpassed the US as the world’s largest chip supplier in the early 1980s, causing wariness and discontent in the US over national security risks and its loss of competitiveness in core technologies.

The Reagan administration regarded Japan as the biggest economic threat to the US. Washington accused Tokyo of state-sponsored industrial policies, intellectual property theft from US companies, and of dumping products on the American market.

The US punished Japanese companies for allegedly stealing US technology and illegally selling military sensitive products to the Soviet Union. It also forced Japan to sign deals to share its semiconductor technologies and increase its purchases of US semiconductor products.

“The Trump administration is using similar tactics against China that were used against Japan in the 1980s and 1990s,” said an adviser to the Chinese government, on condition of anonymity, adding that the US was continuing its hegemony to curtail China’s tech development and was trying to mobilise its allies to follow suit.

After talks to end the US-China trade faltered last month, Huawei – a global leader in the 5G market – is now standing at centre stage of a protracted technology stand-off between Beijing and Washington, which has grown increasingly wary of the rising competitiveness of Chinese tech companies.

Zhang Monan, a researcher with the Beijing-based China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, does not foresee an easing of the rivalry between the US and China.

“The current US-China conflicts are more complicated than those between the US and Japan,” she said.

“The US will only get more intense in its containment of China and the tech rivalry won’t ease, even if China and the US could reach a deal to de-escalate the trade tensions.”

Huawei is at the centre of a technology stand-off between Beijing and Washington. Photo: AP
Huawei is at the centre of a technology stand-off between Beijing and Washington. Photo: AP

Back in 1982, the US justice department charged senior officials at Hitachi with conspiracy to steal confidential computer information from IBM and take it back to Japan. IBM also sued Hitachi. The two companies settled the case out of court and Hitachi paid 10 billion yen (US$92.3 million) to IBM in royalties in 1983, while accepting IBM inspections of its new software products for the next five years.

Toshiba, a major electronics producer in Japan, and Norway’s Kongsberg Vaapenfabrikk secretly sold sophisticated milling machines to the Soviet Union from 1982 to 1984, helping to make its submarines quieter and harder to detect. This transfer of sensitive military technology in the middle of an arms race between the US and the Soviet Union was not revealed until 1986.

The US issued a three-year ban on Toshiba products in 1987 and the company ran full-page advertisements in more than 90 American newspapers apologising for its actions.

In 1985, the US imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Japanese semiconductors. A year later, in its five-year semiconductor deal with the US, Japan agreed to monitor its export prices, increase imports from the US, and submit to inspections by the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

A display of chips designed by Huawei for 5G base stations on show at the China International Big Data Industry Expo. Photo: AP
A display of chips designed by Huawei for 5G base stations on show at the China International Big Data Industry Expo. Photo: AP

This was followed by a second five-year semiconductor deal in 1991, in which Japan agreed to double the US market share in Japan to 20 per cent. In yet another bilateral semiconductor deal in 1989 Japan was required to open its semiconductor patents to the US.

Meanwhile, the US government boosted its efforts to help American businesses cement their industrial leverage in the chip sector and unveiled rules to protect its domestic chip industry.

The two countries were irreconcilable in 1996 on how to measure their respective market share. Overall market circumstances had also changed by then, with the US becoming competitive in microprocessing, and South Korea and Taiwan emerging as strong rivals to Japan.

Its dominance in semiconductors lost, Japan reached out to Europe for a range of cooperative technology deals.

Cooperate, don’t confront: academic advises Beijing on trade war tactics

“History can tell that high technology matters greatly to national security strategies. It is not a process of mere market competition. It follows the law of the jungle,” Zhang said.

The US has intensified its investment scrutiny by rolling out the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernisation Act last year, which extends the regulation to key industrial technology sectors.

Zhang predicted the US would continue to contain China’s technological development in key sectors such as AI, aerospace, robots and nanotechnology – all of which are of great importance to Beijing.

The US has said Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE present a national security risk. Last April it cut US supplies to ZTE, citing violations of sanctions against Iran and North Korea. The ban was removed three months later after ZTE paid US$1.4 billion in fines.

It was a wake-up call for China to develop its own core technologies. The subsequent US ban on Huawei added to the urgency to do so, observers said.

Wang Yiwei, a professor in international relations with Renmin University, said China had to develop its own hi-tech know-how while continuing the opening up process.

“China has paid a price to learn whose globalisation it is,” he said.

“We may see some extent of disengagement with the US in technology and dual-use sectors, but China can speed up cooperation with European countries, and other countries such as Israel, to offset the risks from the US.”

In December, the US filed criminal charges against Huawei and its chief financial officer Sabrina Meng Wanzhou, alleging bank fraud, obstruction of justice and technology theft.

The squeeze continued last month with the US blacklisting Huawei, restricting its access to American hi-tech supplies and putting pressure on its allies to freeze the company out of the 5G market. So far, those allies, including Germany and Japan, have remained hesitant about meeting the US request and refrained from siding with either country.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Monday that Huawei had obtained 46 commercial contracts in 30 countries as of June 6, “including some US allies and some European countries that the US has been working hard to persuade out of the contracts”.

For Zhang, the differences between Japan’s experience of US concerns of technological advancement and China’s may offer some hope for Chinese ambitions.

“Dependent on US for security protection, Japan was limited in [its ability to] push back and was already a developed country,” she said.

“But China has huge domestic market potential to address the imbalance [between] economic and technology development. This remains a big attraction to multinational companies, which would enable China to integrate into global innovation and technology cooperation, but China has to figure out how to dispel the doubts on its growth model.”

Source: SCMP

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