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20/10/2013

Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years – StratRisks

We can only hope that the article below is a worst-case scenario that will not actually happen.

From: http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/15914

On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.” (See Maria Hsia Chang,Return of the Dragon: China’s Wounded Nationalism. Westview, 2001.

Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)

Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:

  • the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as 中新網 (ChinaNews.com).
  • The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word bi (必), which means “must” or “necessarily” or “surely.” That is why  the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.

PLAN

THE SIX WARS [SURE] TO BE FOUGHT BY CHINA IN THE COMING 50 YEARS

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

THE 1ST WAR: UNIFICATION OF TAIWAN (YEAR 2020 TO 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.

…

THE 2ND WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SPRATLY ISLANDS (YEAR 2025 TO 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan.

…

THE 3RD WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SOUTHERN TIBET (YEAR 2035 TO 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

…

THE 4TH WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF DIAOYU ISLAND [SENKAKU] AND RYUKYU ISLANDS (YEAR 2040 TO 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).

From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China.

…

THE 5TH WAR: UNIFICATION OF OUTER MONGOLIA (YEAR 2045 TO 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

…

THE 6TH WAR: TAKING BACK OF LANDS LOST TO RUSSIA (YEAR 2055 TO 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield.

…

Posted in China alert, Defence, Ethnic clash, Foreign invasion, GeoPolitics, History, Military, Neighbour conflict, PLA, Politics, Taiwan, Territorial dispute, war | 2 Comments »

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20/10/2013

China Got Into Bed With the U.S. Treasury and Can’t Get Out – Time

The good news is that the mutual economic interdependence between China and America means that any chance of real conflict in the foreseeable future is a remote possibility.

From: http://business.time.com/2013/10/15/china-got-into-bed-with-the-u-s-treasury-and-cant-get-out/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Fbusiness+%28TIME%3A+Top+Business+Stories%29%22

“The Chinese sure are doing a lot of worrying these days about the stalemate in Washington. Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that he was watching the tussle over raising the government’s debt ceiling with “great attention” in a meeting last week. He has good reason to be concerned. With a stash of nearly $1.3 trillion in Treasury securities, China is the world’s largest foreign owner of U.S. government debt. If U.S. Congress fails to lift the ceiling to allow the government to borrow more by Thursday, Washington may not have enough money to pay its bills, potentially leading to a default. That could sink the value of Treasuries — wiping out a big chunk of Chinese wealth in the process.

Chinese President Xi Jinping looks up as he and U.S. President Barack Obama speak to reporters in California

That possibility has caused much consternation in China. In a blistering (and highly hypocritical) editorial, state news agency Xinhua blasted what it sees as Washington’s irresponsibility in handling global affairs and called for greater say for developing nations in international institutions like the IMF and a new reserve currency to replace the dollar.

“As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world,” the commentary recommended. “Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be put in place.”

…

Among the Chinese public, the stalemate in Washington has caused confusion and ire. Why, some Chinese are asking, have our leaders invested so much of the country’s money in a government that seems so dysfunctional? “Bought so much [American debt], now you are under the control of others,” went one typical comment posted on microblogging site Sina Weibo. “We should find out who made this decision and let him take the responsibility.”

The Chinese can blame themselves. Since the earliest days of Chinese economic reform, policies that the government has employed to create growth and exports have also made it dependent on debt issued by the U.S. Treasury. Those policies have generated huge current-account surpluses and gargantuan reserves of foreign currency that have left Beijing no other option but to invest in the U.S.

Chinese policy has generally pushed exports while discouraging imports. By controlling the value of its currency, the renminbi (RMB), to promote exports, China hasn’t allowed its exchange rate to adjust to shifts in trade in a way that would bring balance. Economist Huang Yiping once proffered that policies that reduce prices of land, energy and other costs of production also subsidize exports, and thus contribute to surpluses. Meanwhile, the government’s regulation of interest rates has favored investment and punished savers, suppressing domestic consumption.

The current-account surpluses China has notched over the years have resulted in a vault full of foreign-currency reserves — a staggering $3.66 trillion at last count. Though China’s surpluses have been declining (relative to GDP), the country is still adding to this mountain of foreign currency. In the third quarter, China’s foreign-exchange reserves jumped by the largest amount in more than two years.

…

To many, this ocean of foreign currency shows China’s economic strength, but at the same time, it is also a financial burden. Chinese policymakers simply don’t have many options when managing these giant reserves, and that has forced them to gorge on Treasuries. The U.S.-government-bond market is deep, liquid and reliable — the perfect (and, arguably, only) place to park all those greenbacks. Sure, the Chinese can switch some of their dollars into other currencies, but there is a limit to that strategy. Dumping the dollar would depress its value, eroding China’s own holdings. The only way for China to wean itself off its Treasury habit is to change its entire economic system.

That, though, is happening slowly. One strategy China is pursuing to lessen its dollar dependence is by promoting its own currency as an alternative to the greenback in global trade and finance. The government has had some success. The European Central Bank and China’s central bank recently agreed to a large swap of their currencies. And according to a recent survey from the Bank for International Settlements, the RMB entered the list of top 10 most traded currencies for the first time. Yet in order for the RMB to become a true rival to the dollar, China has to undertake far more reform.

The RMB isn’t fully convertible, nor does it trade freely around the world like the dollar, euro or yen. China is taking stabs at the sort of financial liberalization that would give the RMB an international boost — experimenting with freer capital flows in a new zone in Shanghai, for instance — but those steps are tentative at best. The Chinese government is still reluctant to throw open its financial sector and loosen capital flows and currency trading in a way that would turn the RMB into a solid reserve currency like the dollar.

“China’s policymakers remain deeply uncomfortable with allowing market forces a say in determining the exchange rate at times of uncertainty,” research firm Capital Economics said in a report on Monday. “Policymakers still see opening of capital controls as an important goal. But their actions underline that it remains a long way off.”

What this all means is that China and the U.S. Treasury remain locked in an embrace from which it is very hard for Beijing to escape. What it will take is extensive reform to China’s own economy that so far Beijing has been reluctant to undertake. So Beijing can call for a “de-Americanized world” all it wants. China is not ready to take America’s place.”

Posted in China alert, debt, deficit, economic inter-dependence, Economics, Reserve currency | Leave a Comment »

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20/10/2013

China pivots to Latin America

China is tired of US meddling in the west Pacific. This is one of the steps it is taking to rebalance the power-politics between it and the US. Worthy of Sun Tzu.

Posted in China alert, Economics, GeoPolitics, innovation | Leave a Comment »

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20/10/2013

China developing 180,000-ton double-hull aircraft carrier

If successful, first in the world.

Posted in China alert, Defence, innovation, Politics, Technology | Leave a Comment »

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05/10/2013

Tiny Malta Turns to China, Says Prime Minister – Businessweek

After becoming prime minister of the tiny but strategic Mediterranean island nation of Malta in March, 39-year-old Labor Party leader Joseph Muscat has put a new priority on strengthening relations with China. This marks a major shift for the Maltese government that rules over a population of 418,000. While maintaining good relations with Beijing during their almost 25-year-tenure (apart from a brief 18-month-period in the 1990s, Labor has been out of power since 1987) the conservative Nationalist Party had focused much more on the relationship with the European Union.

Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat at the U.N. headquarters in New York

PRC-Malta ties have a relatively long history. Malta was one of the first European countries to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in early 1972, then also under a Labor government. And as Malta prepared to close the military bases of its former colonial overlord Britain in the mid 1970s, it also won substantial economic aid from China (the bases were finally shut in 1979). That included providing complete factories to produce glass, textiles, and chocolate, as well as state-owned China Harbour Engineering Corporation, funding and constructing a massive 300,000-ton dry dock that berths supertankers, nicknamed the “Red China Dock,” completed in 1980 and still used today. China is now planning construction of a massive new embassy in Malta, expected to be even bigger than the large U.S. embassy.

Muscat visited China in September where he signed a memorandum of understanding that will see state-owned enterprises, China Power Investment and Shanghai Electric, invest a minority shareholding in Malta’s energy provider, aimed at producing photo-voltaic units for sale in Europe and the Mediterranean. Bloomberg Businessweek sat down for an interview with the Malta prime minister on Sept. 12th, on the sidelines of a World Economic Forum, meeting in Dalian. What follows are edited excerpts from the interview.

via Tiny Malta Turns to China, Says Prime Minister – Businessweek.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/geopolitics-chinese/

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05/10/2013

China employs two million microblog monitors state media say – BBC News

More than two million people in China are employed by the government to monitor web activity, state media say, providing a rare glimpse into how the state tries to control the internet.

Sina Weibo

The Beijing News says the monitors, described as internet opinion analysts, are on state and commercial payrolls.

China’s hundreds of millions of web users increasingly use microblogs to criticise the state or vent anger.

Recent research suggested Chinese censors actively target social media.

The report by the Beijing News said that these monitors were not required to delete postings.

 

China’s internet is one of the most controlled and censored in the world.

Websites deemed to be subversive are blocked. Politically sensitive postings are routinely deleted . Even the name of the former Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was censored when rumours were circulating on the internet that his family had amassed a fortune while he was in power.

But with the rapid growth of internet users, the ruling Communist Party has found itself fighting an uphill battle.

The Beijing News, while reporting the story of microblog monitors, has admitted that it is impossible for the government to delete all “undesirable” postings.

The more postings deleted, the more they appear, it says.

China seldom reveals details about how it monitors and controls the internet. The government even does not acknowledge that it blocks web sites.

But the report does offer a rare glimpse into this opaque world.

They are “strictly to gather and analyse public opinions on microblog sites and compile reports for decision-makers”, it said. It also added details about how some of these monitors work.

Tang Xiaotao has been working as a monitor for less than six months, the report says, without revealing where he works.

“He sits in front of a PC every day, and opening up an application, he types in key words which are specified by clients.

“He then monitors negative opinions related to the clients, and gathers (them) and compile reports and send them to the clients,” it says.

The reports says the software used in the office is even more advanced and supported by thousands of servers. It also monitors websites outside China.

China rarely reveals any details concerning the scale and sophistication of its internet police force.

It is believed that the two million internet monitors are part of a huge army which the government relies on to control the internet.

The government is also to organise training classes for them for the first time from 14 to 18 October, the paper says.

via BBC News – China employs two million microblog monitors state media say.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2012/04/26/understanding-social-media-in-china/

Posted in Censorship, China alert, Dissident, Internal politics, Politics, social media | Leave a Comment »

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03/10/2013

China recycling cleanup jolts global industry – Businessweek

China for years has welcomed the world’s trash, creating a roaring business in recycling and livelihoods for tens of thousands. Now authorities are clamping down on an industry that has helped the rich West dispose of its waste but also added to the degradation of China’s environment.

The Chinese campaign is aimed at enforcing standards for waste imports after Beijing decided too many were unusable or even dangerous and would end up in its landfills. Under the crackdown dubbed Green Fence, China has rejected hundreds of containers of waste it said were contaminated or that improperly mixed different types of scrap.

It is abruptly changing a multibillion-dollar global industry in which China is a major processing center for the world’s discarded soft drink bottles, scrap metal, electronics and other materials. Whole villages in China’s southeast are devoted to processing single products, such as electronics. Household workshops break down discarded computers or appliances to recover copper and other metals. Some use crude smelters or burn leftover plastic and other materials, releasing lead and other toxins into the air. Green Fence is in line with the ruling Communist Party’s pledges to make the economy cleaner and more efficient after three decades of breakneck growth that fouled rivers and left China’s cities choking on smog.

Brian Conners, who works for a Philadelphia company that recycles discarded refrigerators, says buyers used to visit every week looking for scrap plastic to ship to China for reprocessing. Then Beijing launched its crackdown in February aimed at cleaning up the thriving but dirty recycling industry.

“Now they’re all gone,” said Conners, president of ARCA Advanced Processing.

American and European recyclers send a significant part of their business to China and say they support higher quality standards. But stricter scrutiny has slowed imports and raised their costs. The decline in the number of traders buying scrap to ship to China has also depressed prices American and European recycling companies can get for their plastic and metals.

International Recycling Symbol 32px|alt=W3C|li...

International Recycling Symbol 32px|alt=W3C|link=http://validator.w3.org/✓ The source code of this SVG is valid. Category:Valid SVG (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

“While we support Green Fence, it has increased our cost of doing business,” said Mike Biddle, founder of MBA Polymers, a plastics recycler with facilities in California, Europe and southern China. “It takes longer and there are more inspections.”

At the same time, people in the industry say recyclers that invest in cleaner technology might be rewarded with more business as dirtier competitors are forced out of the market. The crackdown also might create new opportunities to process material in the United States and Europe instead of shipping it around the globe.

China’s recycling industry has boomed over the past 20 years. Its manufacturers needed the metal, paper and plastic and Beijing was willing to tolerate the environmental cost. Millions of tons of discarded plastic, computers, electronics, newspapers and shredded automobiles and appliances are imported every year from the United States, Europe and Japan.

via China recycling cleanup jolts global industry – Businessweek.

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02/10/2013

For China, Turkey missile deal a victory even if it doesn’t happen | Reuters

Turkey‘s $4 billion order for a Chinese missile defense system is a breakthrough for China in its bid to become a supplier of advanced weapons, even though opposition from Washington and NATO threatens to derail the deal.

The logo of China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) is seen at its headquarters in Beijing in this September 27, 2013 file photo. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Files

The winning bid from the China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) to deliver its FD-2000 air defense missile system in a joint production agreement with Turkey is the first time a Chinese supplier has won a major order for state-of-the-art equipment from a NATO member. U.S., Russian and Western European manufacturers were also in the fray.

The decision last week to award the contract to CPMIEC, a company that is under U.S. sanctions for dealings with Iran, North Korea and Syria, surprised global arms trade experts and senior NATO officials.

“It is quite significant I would say, if it materializes,” said Oliver Brauner, a researcher on China’s arms exports at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).”It would certainly be a landmark deal.”

Turkey signaled on Monday that it could back away from its decision after Washington said it had “serious concerns” about the deal with a sanctioned company for a system that would not be compatible with NATO’s other weapons and networks.

And, in a reminder that Ankara faces stiff opposition from its alliance partners in Europe, a NATO official in Brussels said it was important that equipment ordered by member countries is compatible.

“It is premature at this stage to say whether Turkey’s acquisition will be able to operate with the NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence System,” the official said.

NATO’s disappointment with Turkey is heightened by the fact that the United States, Germany and the Netherlands each sent two Patriot batteries earlier this year after Ankara asked for help in beefing up its air defenses against the threat of missiles from Syria.

Ankara could call off the air defense deal under pressure, but some Chinese and foreign commentators suggested it would still be a symbolic victory for Beijing.

They say Turkey’s willingness to choose the FD-2000 over established rivals confirms the rapid technical improvement and competitiveness of China’s missile and aerospace sector.

Chinese military experts say the system performed well in live tests for the Turkish Defence Ministry.

It also signals that China’s sprawling defense industry is poised to become a low cost supplier of high technology weaponry alongside its rapidly expanding sales of basic military equipment including small arms, artillery, armored vehicles, general purpose vehicles and older generation missiles.

via For China, Turkey missile deal a victory even if it doesn’t happen | Reuters.

See also:

Posted in Aerospace, China alert, GeoPolitics, Technology | Leave a Comment »

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01/10/2013

China’s Synthetic Natural Gas Plants Could Accelerate Climate Change – Businessweek

Northern China’s reliance on burning coal for heat and energy contributes to the heavy haze that shrouds city buildings, especially in winter, and shortens the life spans of northerners as compared with their southern counterparts by as much as five years, according to a recent study (PDF) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

A worker moves coal briquettes onto a pedicab at a coal distribution business in Huaibei, central China's Anhui province on January 30, 2013.

Beijing and other Chinese cities won’t see frequent blue skies until coal burning is dramatically curtailed in adjacent industrial regions. In September, China’s State Council released a significant new environmental target: trimming coal’s contribution to overall energy output from 67 percent in 2012 to 65 percent in 2017, even as the country’s economy and energy demand continue to grow.

STORY: Growing Concerns About Pollution And Public Health In China

Unfortunately, one scheme to limit coal burning by converting China’s plentiful coal supplies into synthetic natural gas (SNG) presents a host of other ecological worries. To date, China’s government has approved construction of nine large SNG plants in northern and western China, which are projected to generate 37 billion cubic meters of gas each year when completed. At least 30 more proposed plants are awaiting approval.

None of these planned plants are located near large Chinese cities, so the emissions generated in producing the gas will not hang directly over metropolises. But that doesn’t mean the coal-to-gas conversion process is clean. According to a new study (PDF) in Nature Climate Change, the entire life cycle of harvesting coal and turning it into gas produces from 36 percent to 82 percent more total greenhouse gas emissions than burning coal directly—depending on whether the gas is used to generate electricity or power vehicles.

While the most-polluting stages of energy generation could be moved farther from China’s population centers—perhaps allowing for more brighter, cleaner days in Beijing—the net effect could be to accelerate global climate change, argue the study’s authors, Chi-Jen Yang and Robert Jackson of the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University.

via China’s Synthetic Natural Gas Plants Could Accelerate Climate Change – Businessweek.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/economic-factors/greening-of-china/

Posted in carbon emission, China alert, Economics, Electricity, energy, greenhouse gas, Pollution | Leave a Comment »

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01/10/2013

China-U.S. Military Ties Grow as They Eye Each Other at Sea – Bloomberg

China’s official People’s Daily newspaper lambasted the U.S. when it led the most recent RIMPAC naval drill, the Pacific Ocean military simulation held every other year. The 22-nation exercise reflected Washington’s bid to “contain the military rise of another country,” it said.

Chinese Sailors

Next year, Chinese ships will join the Rim of the Pacific exercise for the first time. During a visit to the Pentagon last month, Foreign Minister Wang Yi described military ties as a “bright spot” in the U.S.-China relationship.

Enlarge image

Chinese sailors stand on board a frigate berthed in Shanghai. Photographer: Guillaume Klein/AFP/Getty Images

Wang’s words and China’s participation reflect a changed attitude as the world’s two biggest militaries boost contacts despite competing for influence in the Asia-Pacific, home to shipping lanes and resource reserves. The closer ties will be tested as China grows more assertive in a region dotted with nations that would call for U.S. help if attacked.

“The competition and conflicts between China and the U.S. will still be there, but it will prevent them from escalating to an unmanageable level,” Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said by phone. “It is preventable diplomacy rather than positive cooperation.”

U.S.-China ties will be on display at next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum leaders meeting in Bali. China’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea may be discussed, along with changing U.S. and Chinese roles in the region.

Rising Competition

Military competition between the the U.S. and China is on the rise even as the two foster closer links, with China’s defense budget more than doubling since 2006. Though its military spending is less than one-fifth of the U.S., China has developed drones, stealth fighters and an aircraft carrier while deploying a type of anti-ship ballistic missile the U.S. says is meant to threaten U.S. carriers in the region.

That buildout comes as China has pushed its territorial claims more forcefully in the South and East China seas and as the U.S. Navy plans to move more forces to the region in a strategic shift. Four Chinese Coast Guard ships entered Japan-controlled waters around disputed islands about 9 a.m. and left about 11 a.m. today, Japan’s Coast Guard said in e-mailed statements.

China’s naval expansion “is largely about countering” the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Captain James Fanell, deputy chief of staff for intelligence and information operations at the U.S. Pacific Fleet headquarters in Hawaii, said in a January presentation at a conference in San Diego.

Mutual Defense

“They want to have the capability to make sure that events do not occur in those three seas that they do not approve of,” said Bernard Cole, a former Navy officer who teaches at the National War College in Washington, referring to the Yellow, East and South China seas. “The problem from a U.S. perspective is that we have mutual defense treaties with South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.”

Recent contacts offer a counterpoint to unease on both sides. In August, China’s Defense Minister Chang Wanquan visited the Pentagon and the commander of China’s navy, Admiral Wu Shengli, got a tour of a U.S. Los Angeles-class attack submarine in San Diego in September. Also last month, three Chinese ships joined search-and-rescue exercises with the U.S. off Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.

RIMPAC is held by the U.S. Pacific Fleet in seas around the Hawaiian islands. The exercises once trained for conflict with the Soviet Union and later included Russia as a participant. China was an observer to the drills in 1998.

Attend Exercise

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi announced China would attend the exercise after a summit between President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping in California in June. During the talks, the two vowed to build “a new type of military relations,” Yang said, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

“This is to us a very visible manifestation of the idea that a rising China can provide a positive contribution to international security,” U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy James Miller said of China’s participation in RIMPAC when he visited Beijing Sept. 10.

Still, closer ties between the U.S. and the People’s Liberation Army can be reversed, Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said by phone. The visits and the RIMPAC exercises are the “warm fuzzies of military diplomacy,” he said.

U.S. reconnaissance as well as arms sales to Taiwan remain problems in the military relationship with China, Zhao Xiaozhuo, a researcher with the PLA Academy of Military Science, wrote in the People’s Daily in August.

Sensitive Information

China’s participation in RIMPAC sparked concern in the U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes, a Virginia Republican, introduced an amendment to the 2014 National Defense Authorization Act seeking to limit Chinese exposure to “sensitive information obtained through military-to-military contacts.”

“This it not like turning over an entirely new leaf, this is just one small step forward to develop a slightly more positive relationship with the PLA,” Bitzinger said. “There’s going to be steps forward and steps backward. And every time there’s a step backward generally U.S.-allied ties get stronger.”

via China-U.S. Military Ties Grow as They Eye Each Other at Sea – Bloomberg.

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