Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Beijing ‘carefully considering’ unveiling the plane at the Zhuhai Airshow in November at a time of heightened regional tension
H-20 will give China the nuclear triad of submarines, ballistic missiles and bombers
An artist’s impression of what the H-20 may look like. Photo: Weibo
China’s new generation strategic bomber is likely to be ready for delivery this year, but Beijing is said to be weighing the impact of its unveiling at a complex time in regional relations due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Military sources said the Xian H-20 supersonic stealth bomber – expected to double the country’s strike range – could make its first public appearance at this year’s Zhuhai Airshow in November, if the pandemic was sufficiently under control.
“The Zhuhai Airshow is expected to become a platform to promote China’s image and its success in pandemic control – telling the outside world that the contagion did not have any big impacts on Chinese defence industry enterprises,” a source said.
But the appearance of the bomber at this year’s air show could heighten tensions by directly threatening countries within its strike range, especially Australia, Japan and the Korean peninsula.
Thrilling aerobatics fill the skies to open air show in central China
“The Beijing leadership is still carefully considering whether its commission will affect regional balance, especially as regional tensions have been escalating over the Covid-19 pandemic,” another source said.
“Like intercontinental ballistic missiles, all strategic bombers can be used for delivering nuclear weapons … if China claimed it had pursued a national defence policy which is purely defensive in nature, why would it need such an offensive weapon?”
Tensions in the region have worsened in the past month with a war of words between Beijing and Washington over the pandemic, and both sides increasing naval patrols.
The US defence department has estimated a cruising distance of more than 8,500km (5,300 miles) for the H-20, the last in China’s 20 series of new generation warplanes, which includes the J-20 stealth fighter jet, the Y-20 giant transporter and the Z-20 medium-lift utility helicopter.
The arrival of the H-20 would mark the completion of China’s “nuclear triad” of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and air-launched weapons.
An H-6K bomber, or China’s B-52, flies over the South China Sea. Photo: AP
Chinese state television has said the H-20 could alter the strategic calculus between the US and China by doubling the strike range of its current H-6K, dubbed the country’s B-52.
The H-20 has reportedly been designed to strike targets beyond the second island ring – which includes US bases in Japan, Guam, the Philippines and other countries – from bases in mainland China. The third island chain extends to Hawaii and coastal Australia.
It will be equipped with nuclear and conventional missiles with a maximum take-off weight of at least 200 tonnes and a payload of up to 45 tonnes. The bomber is expected to fly at subsonic speeds and could potentially unleash four powerful hypersonic stealth cruise missiles.
However, like China’s first active stealth fighter jet, the J-20, engine development of the H-20 bomber has fallen behind schedule, according to sources.
For the J-20, engineers were developing high-thrust turbofan WS-15 engines, but the jet is understood to be using either Chinese WS-10B or Russian-built AL-31FM2/3 engines, which compromise its manoeuvrability and stealth capabilities at subsonic speeds.
Military enthusiasts have speculated the H-20 might use the NK-321 Russian engine but two independent military sources said it would be equipped with an upgraded WS-10 engine.
“The WS-10 is still a transitional engine for the H-20 because it is not powerful enough. The eligible replacement may take two to three years for development,” one of the sources said.
China must meet air force demand for J-20 stealth jets, say analysts
17 Feb 2020
The second said the speed of the H-20 would be slower than its original design, with some of its original combat capability being reduced.
“That’s why the American air force doesn’t care about the H-20, because it is not strong and powerful enough to cause any challenge to their B-2 and B-21 bombers.”
If the US decided to deploy more F-35 supersonic fighter jets – it has already sold about 200 to Japan and South Korea – it could push China to bring forward the unveiling of the new bomber, the second source said.
“For example, if some US decision makers decided to deploy up to 500 F-35s to Japan, South Korea, and even Singapore, India and Taiwan – making almost all of China’s neighbours in the Indo-Pacific region use F-35s to contain China – that would pushBeijing to launch the H-20 as soon as possible.”
The H-20 is believed to have been in development since the early 2000s. The project to develop a strategic bomber was first announced by the People’s Liberation Army in 2016.
Patten says to watch out for any future attempts by Beijing to ‘undermine the rule of law and to corrupt the electoral process in the months ahead’
The plea comes as the ruling Conservative Party in Britain toughens up China policies
Chris Patten is an outspoken critic of the Chinese government’s handling of Hong Kong affairs. Photo: AFP
Britain’s last colonial governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten, has asked the British government to watch out for Chinese attempts to interfere with the city’s affairs while the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic.
He made the plea to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab as the ruling Conservative Party toughens up China policies, amid what many party members see as Beijing’s deliberate failures to be transparent about the initial Covid-19 outbreaks.
The call also comes amid growing worry among Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activists, as police have rounded up dissidents and Beijing authorities have stepped up the rhetoric of national security concerns.
Patten, an outspoken critic of the Chinese government’s handling of Hong Kong affairs, said: “I hope we can … count on the British government to call out China for its breaches of the [Sino-British] Joint Declaration and to watch carefully for future attempts by Beijing to undermine the rule of law and to corrupt the electoral process in the months ahead.”
Wave of arrests of Hong Kong pro-democracy figures draws global criticism
The declaration provided for Hong Kong’s status quo until 2047.
The Foreign Office has not responded to an inquiry by the Post on Patten’s letter.
Citing their roles in unlawful protests, Hong Kong police rounded up at least 15 opposition camp activists earlier this month, including media tycoon Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and prominent barrister Martin Lee Chu-ming, known as the city’s “father of democracy”.
On Tuesday, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers wrote Secretary of State Mike Pompeo requesting that his department’s upcoming assessment of Hong Kong’s autonomy reflect a recent wave of arrests by the city’s authorities of pro-democracy activists.
Hong Kong police to respond with force to any Labour Day protests
30 Apr 2020
Patten also asked the British government to investigate the origin of the coronavirus.
“I would be grateful for your assurance that the British government will press for an expert mission to Wuhan and will encourage other countries to do the same,” he wrote, underscoring the need to “make sure that we know everything about the nature of the virus in order to fight it effectively. We also need to prevent anything similar happening in the future.”
On Wednesday, Britain’s ambassador to the US Karen Pierce backed calls for an investigation into the origins of the novel coronavirus and the response of the World Health Organisation.
“We need to learn after all these crises, just as we did after Ebola in 2014. We need to learn how we can always do things better,” she said.
The comments came after Britain’s foreign affairs parliamentary committee asked the government whether it plans to use international bodies to hold China to account over the Covid-19 pandemic.
Travel restrictions and continued uncertainty about when campuses will reopen has reduced enrolments from America’s biggest group of international students
Demand was already softening due to worsening US-China relations before Covid-19 pandemic struck
The coronavirus is making many Chinese youngsters think twice about pursuing a higher education in the US. Photo: Xinhua
The Covid-19 pandemic has upended the appetite for prestigious US degrees among Chinese students, jeopardising US$15 billion in revenue for American colleges.
The disease – which has spread to more than 185 countries, infected more than 2.6 million people and claimed more than 180,000 lives worldwide – has caused unprecedented disruption. Borders are closed and travel has been significantly limited to contain the spread.
For American schools, it has meant reduced Chinese demand for higher education in the 2020-21 academic year, according to a Congressional report into the cascading economic impacts of the pandemic published on Tuesday by the US China Economic and Security Review Commission.
The report identified a host of issues, from delays or cancellations of US entrance exams in China, through to indefinite travel restrictions and continued uncertainty about when US college campuses will reopen. The consequences could be severe, with nearly a third of all tuition payments to US public universities coming from international students.
Amid outbreak, universities contend with dependence on Chinese students
7 Apr 2020
China has remained the largest source of international students for the US in the past decade, with 369,548 Chinese students enrolled in US higher education programmes in 2018, more than three times the count from nine years earlier, according to the Institute of International Education. The group together contributed US$15 billion in tuition payments.
University administrators told the authors of the report that cancelled recruitment events in China and an inability to work with local recruitment agencies could further depress Chinese student enrolment in US university programmes.
The blow will be severe as international students typically pay full tuition, with only 17 per cent receiving grants or scholarships from their institution, according to a report published by World Education News & Reviews in December.
Wuhan, Los Angeles officials talk about getting back to work after lockdown
22 Apr 2020
The sudden decrease in enrolments added to a softening trend in Chinese student numbers in recent years as US-China relations have become more hostile. Tensions between China and the US over tariffs and trade disputes put more strain on academic exchanges between the two countries.
Before the coronavirus disrupted international travel and school terms, US schools had already seen a decline in enrolments from Chinese students. Last June, Beijing warned its students about the risks of studying in the US and China’s education ministry said some were encountering problems with the duration of their visas limited and an increase in visa refusals.
“This has affected Chinese students going to study in the United States or smoothly completing their studies,” it said.
“The education ministry reminds students and academics of the need to strengthen risk assessment before studying abroad, enhance prevention awareness and make corresponding preparations.”
Chinese students battle rising tide of prejudice in US
15 Apr 2020
Chinese students and scholars have attracted scrutiny from the Trump administration, with claims some could be helping Beijing to obtain trade and technological secrets. US lawmakers are also concerned about China’s growing ambition through effort to influence through its own narratives globally.
, for example, which are based on college campuses and funded by Beijing to promote Chinese language and culture, have been investigated over espionage allegations. Two dozen US schools closed the cultural centres on their campuses in the past two years. The most recent closure, in January, was also the oldest Confucius Institute in the country – at the University of Maryland – which had been operating since 1985.
Tuesday’s report said that as well as the decline in Chinese enrolments, tourism from China would also suffer. Together, higher education and tourism make up the US’ top services exports to China, which will lead to a narrowing in its services trade surplus with China, it said.
BEIJING, April 19 (Xinhua) — Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday that at the critical moment when the world is combating the COVID-19 pandemic, supporting the World Health Organization (WHO) and its director-general is to safeguard the philosophy and principle of multilateralism.
He made the remarks when holding a phone conversation with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, noting that the support is also an act to secure the United Nations’ status and role and maintain the international solidarity in the face of the disease.
Between January 20 and April 4, PM2.5 levels across the country fell by more than 18 per cent, according to the environment ministry
But observers say that as soon as the nation’s factories and roads get back to normal, so too will the air pollution levels
Blue skies were an unexpected upside of locking down cities and halting industrial production across China. Photo: AFP
China’s air quality has improved dramatically in recent weeks as a result of the widespread city lockdowns and strict travel restrictions introduced to contain the
. But experts say the blue skies could rapidly disappear as factories and roads reopen under a government stimulus plan to breathe new life into a stalled economy.
According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, between January 20 and April 4 the average concentration of PM2.5 – the tiny particles that pose the biggest risk to health – fell by 18.4 per cent from the same period of last year.
Meanwhile, the average number of days with good air quality – determined as when the air pollution index falls below 100 – rose by 7.5 per cent, it said.
Satellite images released by Nasa and the European Space Agency showed a dramatic drop in nitrogen dioxide emissions in major Chinese cities in the first two months of 2020, compared with a year earlier.
According to Nasa, the changes in Wuhan – the central China city at the epicentre of the initial coronavirus outbreak – were particularly striking, while nitrogen dioxide levels across the whole of eastern and central China were 10 to 30 per cent lower than normal.
The region is home to hundreds of factories, supplying everything from steel and car parts to microchips. Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million, was placed under lockdown on January 23, but those restrictions were lifted on Wednesday
.
Air pollution is likely to return to China’s cities once the lockdowns are lifted. Photo: Reuters
Nitrogen dioxide is produced by cars, power plants and other industrial facilities and is thought to exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as asthma.
The space agency said the decline in air pollution levels coincided with the restrictions imposed on transport and business activities.
That was consistent with official data from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which recorded a 25 per cent fall in road freight volume and a 14 per cent decline in the consumption of oil products between January and February.
Guangzhou cases prompt shutdown in ‘Little Africa’ trading hub
8 Apr 2020
Liu Qian, a senior climate campaigner for Greenpeace based in Beijing, said the restrictions on industry and travel were the primary reasons for the improvement in air quality.
According to official data, in February, the concentrations of PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide – a toxic gas that comes mostly from industrial burning of coal and other fossil fuels – all fell, by 27 per cent, 28 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively.
“The causes of air pollution are complicated, but the suspension of industrial activity and a drop in public transport use will have helped to reduce levels,” Liu said.
As the epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted to the United States and
, human and industrial activity in China is gradually picking back up, and so is air pollution.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki, said that levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution, measured both by Nasa satellites and official stations in China, started inching back up in the middle of March and had returned to normal levels by the end of the month.
That coincided with the centre’s findings – published on Carbon Brief, a British website on climate change – that coal consumption at power plants and oil refineries across China returned to their normal levels in the fourth week of March.
How the Wuhan experience could help coronavirus battle in US and Europe
10 Apr 2020
Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, a Beijing-based charity, said a stimulus plan to kick-start the economy would have a significant impact on air pollution.
“Once industrial production is fully resumed, so are the emission levels,” he said. “Unless another outbreak happens and triggers another lockdown, which would be terrible, the improvement achieved under the pandemic is unstable and won’t last long.”
After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing launched a 4 trillion yuan (US$567.6 billion) stimulus package that included massive infrastructure investment, but also did huge damage to the environment. In the years that followed, air pollution rose to record highs and sparked a public backlash.
Even before the Covid-19 outbreak, China’s economy was slowing – it grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, its slowest for 29 years – and concerns are now growing that policymakers will go all out to revive it.
“Local governments have been under huge pressure since last year, and there are fears that environmental regulations will be sidelined [in the push to boost economic output],” Ma said.
But Beijing had the opportunity to get it right this time by investing more in green infrastructure projects rather than high-carbon projects, he said.
“A balance between economic development and environmental protection is key to achieving a green recovery, and that is what China needs.”
MILAN/DETROIT (Reuters) – Global automakers reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic are accelerating efforts to restart factories from Wuhan to Maranello to Michigan, using safety protocols developed for China and U.S. ventilator production operations launched in recent weeks.
Certain safety measures differ from manufacturer to manufacturer. Italian sports car maker Ferrari NV (RACE.MI) said on Wednesday it would offer voluntary blood tests to employees who wanted to know if they had been exposed to the virus.
General Motors Co’s (GM.N) head of workplace safety, Jim Glynn, told Reuters on Wednesday GM is not persuaded blood tests are useful. But Glynn said GM has studied and adapted measures taken by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) to protect warehouse workers, such as temperature screening to catch employees with fevers before they enter the workplace.
Auto manufacturers and suppliers are converging on a consensus that temperature screening, daily health questionnaires, assembly lines redesigned to keep workers 3 to 6 feet (0.9 m to 1.8 m) apart, and lots and lots of masks and gloves can enable large-scale factories to operate safely.
“We know the protocols to keep people safe,” Gerald Johnson, GM’s executive vice president for global manufacturing, told Reuters in an interview. GM has relaunched vehicle plants in China and kept factories running in South Korea, he said.
GM has not said when it will reopen assembly plants in the United States. Other automakers are putting dates out in public, even though health officials and federal and state policymakers are wary of lifting lockdowns too soon.
“You see vehicle manufacturers … putting a stake in the ground,” said Brian Collie, head of Boston Consulting Group’s automotive practice. By setting a public date to restart production, they signal suppliers to get ready to ramp up, he said.
The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the global auto industry into the worst tailspin since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Consumer demand for vehicles has collapsed as governments have enforced lockdowns in China, and then in Europe and the United States. For the Detroit automakers and their suppliers, the shutdown of profitable truck and sport utility vehicle plants in North America has choked off cash flow.
In Europe, major automakers have said they hope to begin building vehicles again in mid-to-late April. In the United States, several big automakers, including Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCHA.MI) (FCAU.N), Honda Motor Co Ltd (7267.T) and Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T), are aiming to restart production during the first week of May.
Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and unions are discussing plans for beefed-up health measures at Italian plants to pave the way for production to restart as soon as the government eases a national lockdown due to expire on April 13, unions said on Wednesday.
Among the proposals from Fiat Chrysler’s Italian unions: move meals to the end of shifts, allowing employees to chose to avoid canteens, eat their food elsewhere and leave half an hour earlier without losing pay.
FCA did not comment on specific measures.
In the United States, some non-union automakers have also said they hope to restart vehicle plants as soon as next week.
Tire maker Bridgestone said on Wednesday it plans to restart U.S. production on April 13.
But the Trump administration has said people should continue to practice social distancing until April 30.
VENTILATOR ASSEMBLY
For the Detroit automakers, the United Auto Workers union will play a key role in deciding when and how plants will restart.
UAW President Rory Gamble said in a statement on Wednesday the union is in “deep discussions with all three companies to plan ahead over the implementation of CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] safety standards and using all available technologies to protect all UAW members, their families and the public.”
Among the union’s concerns is that members who report being ill can take time away from work without penalty, Gamble added.
The UAW has supported GM and Ford Motor Co’s (F.N) efforts to launch production of ventilators in U.S. plants – operations that have allowed the companies and the union to road-test safety measures at small scale.
At GM’s ventilator assembly plant in Kokomo, Indiana, workers and managers have been fine-tuning details such as when employees are handed masks, and when they step in front of a temperature screening device.
At first, ventilator assemblers in training at Kokomo walked down a hall before getting a mask, said Debby Hollis, one of the UAW-represented workers. Last week, she said, “They met us at the door and had us get in the masks there.”
BEIJING, April 7 (Xinhua) — Over the past seven years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has on various occasions stressed the importance of global health cooperation, expressed China’s support for international health organizations, and voiced the country’s determination to help improve global health governance.
His remarks on global public health in recent years, especially in the last few months, have become particularly meaningful as countries worldwide mark the 2020 World Health Day on Tuesday amid a raging COVID-19 pandemic.
Back in 2013, during a meeting with then World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Margaret Chan in Beijing, Xi said China will continue to improve public health and enhance cooperation with the WHO.
He also expressed his hope that China and the WHO could work closer to help promote Chinese medicine and medical products into overseas markets, and jointly assist African countries to improve their disease control and public health systems to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.
In March 2015, Xi pointed out in a meeting in China’s Hainan province with Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that preventing and controlling public epidemics is a common challenge to the international community and requires strengthening international cooperation on joint control.
Two years later, during his trip to Switzerland, Xi paid a special visit to the WHO headquarters, in which he co-witnessed with Chan the signing of a memorandum of understanding between China and the WHO pledging to step up health cooperation under the framework of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative.
During the meeting with Chan, Xi noted that China stands ready to enhance cooperation with the WHO in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and assisting other developing countries.
Also in 2017, in his congratulatory letter to a meeting of BRICS countries’ health ministers, Xi called on relevant parties to study work in the field of traditional medicine and make joint efforts to tackle public health challenges.
“It is our common good vision that everyone enjoys good health,” he said in the letter.
In the past several months of 2020 which witnessed a hike in global caseload of COVID-19 infections, Xi has taken each opportunity to reiterate his call for global public health cooperation against the virus.
When meeting with visiting WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in Beijing in January, Xi said China attaches great importance to the cooperation with the WHO, and is ready to work with the organization as well as the international community to safeguard regional and global public health security.
In February, in a reply letter to Gates, Xi said “we are resolute in protecting the life and health of the people of China, and of all countries around the world. We are determined to do our part to uphold global public health security.”
In March, when the global anti-virus fight entered a critical stage, Xi highlighted the need for international health cooperation not only in several domestic meetings on epidemic prevention and control, but also in phone conversations with foreign leaders and heads of international organizations, as well as in such global events as the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit.
On March 12, Xi spoke with United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres over phone, and urged the international community to take urgent action and carry out effective international cooperation in joint prevention and control, so as to form a strong concerted force to beat the disease.
China stands ready to share its experience with other countries, carry out joint research and development on drugs and vaccines, and offer as much assistance as it can to countries where the disease is spreading, Xi said.
Several days later, speaking at a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, he required closer cooperation with the WHO to strengthen the analysis and prediction of the changes in the global epidemic situation, and improvement in strategies and policies to cope with imported risks.
On March 21, in a phone conversation with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, Xi pointed out that public health security is a common challenge faced by humanity.
China, he said, is willing to make concerted efforts with France to enhance international cooperation in epidemic prevention and control, support the UN and WHO playing a core role in improving global public health governance, and build a community of common health for mankind.
Three days later, talking with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev over phone, Xi said in the battle against the current global public health crisis, the urgency and significance of building a community with a shared future for mankind have become even greater.
On March 26, in his keynote speech at the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit via video, Xi said at such a moment, it is imperative for the international community to strengthen confidence, act with unity and work together in a collective response.
He called on G20 members to jointly help developing countries with weak public health systems enhance preparedness and response, and enhance anti-epidemic information sharing with the support of WHO and to promote control and treatment protocols that are comprehensive, systematic and effective.
Most of the relief fund earmarked to subsidise employees’ wages in affected industries
Lam and ministers slash their salaries following controversy over chief executive’s pay
Many businesses have been forced to close because of the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Winson Wong
More than 1 million Hong Kong workers will have part of their wages paid for by the government under a HK$137.5 billion package of measures to help businesses and residents struggling during the Covid-19 crisis, while the city’s leader and her ministers have vowed to take a pay cut, the Post has learned.
Revealing the massive relief fund on Wednesday, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said HK$80 billion would go towards the wage scheme, targeting coronavirus-hit industries over six months with individual payments capped at 50 per cent of salaries, up to HK$9,000 a month. The employers receiving the lifeline must pledge not to lay off workers, she added.
Hong Kong records 25 new cases, including two-month-old baby; tally at 960
8 Apr 2020
Lam said the package, together with other recent pledges of financial relief, would cost a total of HK$287.5 billion, causing the budget deficit to surge from HK$139.1 billion this financial year to HK$276.6 billion, which is equivalent to 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product.
The relief deal is equivalent in size to 4.6 per cent of the city’s GDP.
Meanwhile, Lam’s monthly salary will fall to HK$390,000 after rising to HK$434,000 last July.
Lam and her 16 ministers had voluntarily agreed to a 10 per cent pay reduction for a year, the chief executive told the press conference.
The HK$137.5 billion deal – which was given the green light by her Executive Council earlier in the day – aims to safeguard employment and ease the woes of businesses, with the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the city reaching 960 on Wednesday.
A source said: “The scheme is aimed at coping with the economic hardship brought by the pandemic in the next six months. More than 1 million employees from various sectors, on top of those directly affected by the government’s social-distancing measures, will benefit.”
Staff affected by the latest social-distancing rules – including businesses forced to close – will benefit from the wage scheme, along with employees in sectors such as tourism and construction, two other sources said.
Some businesses set to benefit would be those related to education, such as tutorial centres, school bus operators and PE coaches contracted from outside, according to one.
‘Lost faith’: EU’s top scientist quits over Covid-19 response
8 Apr 2020
“The government is drawing reference from the British government’s recent practice of paying 80 per cent of salaries of employees in affected industries, although the percentage and cap are lower in Hong Kong,” one source said.
In an unprecedented step announced last month, the UK government said the state would pay grants covering up to 80 per cent of salaries if companies kept workers on the payroll rather than laying them off.
In Singapore, the government has offered to pay 75 per cent of workers’ April wages, capped at S$4,600 (HK$25,000) per person.
The Japanese government on Tuesday approved its largest-ever economic relief package, which includes grants of up to 2 million yen (US$18,350), for small and medium-sized businesses whose revenues had more than halved.
Hongkonger recalls weeks of lockdown in Wuhan, China, the first epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic
With the Hong Kong government sitting on reserves of more than HK$1.1 trillion, the Professional Commons think tank said the authorities should spend HK$200 billion on businesses and workers, including handing HK$7,500 a month over six months to sacked staff and covering 80 per cent of salaries up to a monthly maximum of HK$25,000 for workers at struggling firms and the self-employed.
The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer psychology across the world, experts say
Complexity of the crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make a consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict
The coronavirus has caused panic buying around the world as consumers frantically stockpile of goods such as toilet paper, hand sanitisers and masks. Illustration: Brian Wang
Before the coronavirus crisis began rippling through the global economy, Susan Wang had big plans for 2020.
Not only was she going to buy a new Apple MacBook and iPad, plus a projector so she could host friends for movies at home, but she was set on making a career move.
“I was planning to change my job, but my headhunter told me that all recruitment has been postponed to the second quarter,” said the 27-year-old who works for a British company in Hong Kong.
“Our headquarters in London has a plan for redundancy, too. It is better to save some money in case I get laid off.”
As Covid-19 spreads across the world, sending stock markets reeling and prompting big companies to slash jobs, Wang has become increasingly frugal like scores of other consumers from China to the United States.
She has stopped eating at restaurants and now tries to keep her weekly food bill under HK$500 (US$64), whereas in the past she wouldn’t think twice about spending HK$100 per meal.
Amid mounting uncertainty, the coronavirus pandemic – which has claimed the lives of more than 41,000 people and infected at least 842,000 worldwide – is fundamentally changing consumer behaviour in Asia, Europe and North America.
Consumer experts said the 2009 global financial crisis, the Great Depression that started in 1929 and the September 11 terrorist attacks give some clues about how and when global consumption might recover. But the complexity of this crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make this consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict, they added.
Coronavirus: What impact will the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic have on you?
“The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode,” said Jesse Garcia, a Los Angeles-based consumer psychologist, who is also the CEO of market consulting firm My Marketing Auditors.
plummeted a record 44 per cent in February and those figures are only expected to get worse, with sales forecast to slump between 30 and 40 per cent in the first half of the year, according to the Hong Kong Retail Management Association.
In the US, retail sales dropped by 0.5 per cent in February, even before many states had issued stay-at-home orders to protect the world’s largest economy. The decline was the biggest fall since December 2018.
Experts say non-essential products and services are set to be worst affected by the coronavirus pandemic, while goods and services that can be consumed at home will see a spike in sales.
The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode – Jesse Garcia
“Online consumer behaviour is frenetic,” said Ross Steinman, a professor of psychology at Widener University in the US state of Pennsylvania. “Consumers are refreshing and refreshing and refreshing websites to secure grocery delivery times, purchase paper towels from their usual big box retailer and scavenge for rice and canned soup from third party sellers on Amazon.
“A pronounced spike in coronavirus cases will only amplify the freneticism.”
So far, one of the biggest shortages for consumers is toilet paper. Television stations across the globe have beamed images of empty supermarket shelves and huge queues as people hoard toilet paper rolls, masks and hand sanitiser.
The frantic stockpiling can be explained by a psychological concept called informational conformity, said Vicki Yeung, associate professor at the Department of Applied Psychology at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
A pronounced spike in coronavirus cases will only amplify the freneticism – Ross Steinman
“When people lack knowledge and are in an uncertain situation, they tend to follow the group’s behaviour and blindly conform, but once they obtain more information, and digest and process the situation, the panic gradually fades away,” she said.
“During this Covid-19 pandemic, people generally feel jittery and anxious because they feel their sense of control has disappeared.”
Unlike other recent global crises such as the September 11 attacks, the coronavirus is less a one-time sharp shock to the system and more of a rolling source of anxiety that could retreat and resurface repeatedly, consumer behaviour experts said.
This was the pattern with the Black Death plague that hit Europe in 1347 and returned episodically over many years, ultimately killing millions of people.
During this Covid-19 pandemic, people generally feel jittery and anxious because they feel their sense of control has disappeared – Vicki Yeung
“It may be we’ll have to shut down things again in October or August. And this could go on for years,” said Charley Ballard, an economist with Michigan State University in the US. “The more that happens, the more damage it does to buoyant consumer psychology.”
Furthermore, relative to the 2009 financial crisis and even the Great Depression, when much of the damage was concentrated at least initially in the financial sector, this crisis has seen virtually the entire economy grind to a halt all at the same time, devastating employment and consumption.
Last week, a record 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits within one week, as restaurants, hotels, barber shops, gyms and retail outlets shut down in a nationwide bid to stem the pandemic. The previous record of 695,000 was set in 1982.
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs predicted the US jobless rate will hit 15 per cent in the second quarter of this year from the coronavirus economic freeze, and could rise further beyond that to near the historic peak of 24.9 per cent seen in 1933 during the Great Depression. Economists at the St. Louis district of the US Federal Reserve projected unemployment could cost as many as 47 million jobs in the US this year, sending the unemployment rate past 32 per cent before making a sharp recovery.
US now has world’s most coronavirus cases, surpassing China
China’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.2 per cent for January and February from 5.2 per cent in December and 5.3 per cent a year earlier. It was the highest level since records began in 2016, but did not include China’s estimated 291 million migrant workers.
Consumer spending accounts for more than 60 per cent of the Chinese economy and drives 70 per cent of the US economy. But with the pandemic causing many people to go into hibernation and likely to lead to cycles of job cuts, economists have predicted a consumer-led global recession by the second quarter of this year.
Just how long it will take for consumer behaviour to return to normal depends on each person’s psychological resilience, including how quickly they can adapt to change, how optimistic they are and whether they can adopt strategies to regain a sense of control, Yeung said.
Anirban Mukhopadhyay, chair professor of marketing at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said as long as the coronavirus threat was still present, people would remain fearful to some extent. But he added that people were resilient.
Satellite images show world sites deserted amid coronavirus pandemic
“Human beings adapt to events and stimuli over time,” Mukhopadhyay said. “Research has shown that even people who win lotteries tend to return to their earlier levels of life satisfaction after some months, as do people who have to have amputations.
“So even if the source of the fear does not go away, we learn to live with it.”
Ballard, from Michigan State University, estimated it could take upwards of two years for American consumers to feel secure enough in their jobs and gain enough confidence to fully open their wallets. A longer and more episodic duration for the disease could push that higher, he added.
Further complicating the consumer picture, he said, is that many supply chains are at risk of breaking. And consumers will be wary of spending for a while in many traditional areas, including crowded sporting events and concerts, restaurants and flights.
A new phase of coronavirus blame game: what is the legacy of Covid-19 on global supply chains?
Some experts have even suggested that consumer behaviour may be permanently changed as a result of the pandemic.
“It seems very unlikely that people will get back to life as it was before, once the coronavirus is over,” said Andreas Kappes, a lecturer in psychology at City University of London.
“People’s behaviour is extremely orthodox, often referred to as the status quo bias and captured in expressions like ‘past behaviour best predicts future behaviour.’ Now, the crisis forces us to change our behaviour, radically, and we might discover that new way suits us better.”
‘As two of the great countries on Earth, cooperation between China and the US could, and should, be used to bring a more positive outcome for all humankind,’ academics say
‘Political bickering does nothing to contribute to the healthy development of Sino-US relations, nor will it help the people of the world to rationally and accurately understand and cope with the pandemic,’ they say
Chinese academics have urged nations to cooperate to find a solution to the global public health crisis. Photo: AFP
A group of 100 Chinese scholars has signed an open letter calling on the
The signatories, who include former diplomats and academics from various fields, including political science, international relations and sociology, said that while the origins of the coronavirus remained unknown, hurling accusations achieved nothing but hurt.
Nations should stop “complaining, finger-pointing and blaming one another” and instead cooperate to find a solution to the global public health crisis, they said.
“Political bickering does nothing to contribute to the healthy development of Sino-US relations, nor will it help the people of the world to rationally and accurately understand and cope with the pandemic,” the scholars said in the letter published on Thursday in online news magazine The Diplomat.
“As two of the great countries on Earth, cooperation between China and the US could, and should, be used to bring a more positive outcome for all humankind,” it said.
The scholars also urged the two sides to put aside their bickering over where and how the disease originated.
“At this stage of the pandemic, the exact source and origin of Covid-19 remain undetermined, but these questions are unimportant and finger-pointing is demeaning and hurtful to everyone,” they said.
US and Chinese officials have sparred for weeks over the origins of the coronavirus, which was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan but has since spread around the world, infecting more than 1 million people and killing close to 53,000.
Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to the pathogen as the “Chinese virus”. Photo: Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to the pathogen as the “Chinese virus”, while other US politicians have said it was created in a Chinese laboratory. For China’s part, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian suggested the coronavirus
might have been carried into the country by US soldiers.
China’s ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said in an interview on American television last month that speculating about the origin of the virus was “harmful”, but the finger-pointing on both sides has plunged relations between the two countries to a new low.
The open letter was the idea of Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, who said its aim was not only to show the willingness of China’s intellectual elite to promote solidarity and reduce tensions, but to make clear that the priority right now was saving lives.
“We did not criticise anyone in the letter, or mention any names. We did not want to fuel the current disputes and confrontations,” he said.
“Most Chinese intellectuals are peaceful, rational and constructive, and thankfully we quickly reached consensus on the content of the letter.”
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The scholars said that after months of battling the coronavirus and seeing the situation at home improve, China now wanted to share its experience and knowledge with other countries as they seek to contain its spread.
“Chinese people have made unimaginable efforts and sacrifices to achieve hard-won results,” Wang said.
“We are grateful for the support of the international community, including donations from American friends, during the most critical stage of the fight … and we are willing to share our experiences with other countries and provide all available assistance to them.”
Wu Sike, a former Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, was among the signatories to the open letter. Photo: Xinhua
Among the other signatories were Wu Sike, a senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies and former special envoy to the Middle East, and Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University, who described the Covid-19 pandemic as a “global issue that overrides geopolitics concerns”.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump agreed in a telephone call last week to work together to contain the spread of Covid-19, but critics have questioned how long their cordiality can last against a backdrop of rising China-US tensions over trade, the media and regional security.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 