Archive for ‘Economics’

06/05/2014

China’s Millennials Can’t Afford Homes in Beijing (Without Daddy’s Help) – Businessweek

For many young professionals in Beijing, the dream of owning a home feels increasingly remote. Soaring home prices—driven in large part by the popularity of real estate as an investment vehicle in China—mean that even relatively successful young workers find it hard to climb onto the housing ladder in leading cities.

Potential buyers visit a real estate trade fair on April 5, 2012 in Beijing

According to a recent study by the University of International Business & Economics in Beijing, fewer than a quarter of college-educated, employed professionals in Beijing age 34 and younger are homeowners. Those with relatives in the capital city often reside with family members. Others rent apartments—paying, on average, 37 percent of their monthly income in rent.

Of those young respondents who were homeowners in Beijing, fully three-quarters said they received substantial help from their parents or other family members. And of those, 25 percent said their parents had paid the full price of their home outright in cash.

via China’s Millennials Can’t Afford Homes in Beijing (Without Daddy’s Help) – Businessweek.

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06/05/2014

Why China Isn’t Worried About Slowing GDP: Jobs Strength – Businessweek

Even as China’s economy continues to show signs of a slowdown, Beijing has avoided rolling out any big new stimulus programs; that’s in direct contrast to its pump-priming response during the 2008 global financial crisis.

A tea plantation in Hangzhou, China

Why the apparent lack of worry? It’s got everything to do with jobs. In the first quarter, China created 3.44 million new urban jobs, 40,000 more than a year earlier. China has said for the full year it wants to create at least 10 million new positions—that target now looks easily reachable.

GDP growth has halved since peaking above 14 percent in 2007. But, with a greater share of output coming from more labor-intensive sectors, and the economy itself much larger, more new jobs are being created today,” wrote economists Mark Williams, Qinwei Wang, and Julian Evans-Pritchard, at London-based Capital Economics, in a May 2 note.

via Why China Isn’t Worried About Slowing GDP: Jobs Strength – Businessweek.

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06/05/2014

Weak Economy Means There’s More Room at India’s Hotels – India Real Time – WSJ

The subcontinent’s fanciest hoteliers are plumping their pillows for fewer guests as the economy takes a toll on travel.

Corporations are chopping their travel budgets. Foreign tourism isn’t what it used to be. And there was an oversupply of hotel rooms in India to begin with.

For reasons like these, hotels particularly at the higher end of the business will be facing “muted revenue growth, stagnated profitability and elevated credit risk” in the fiscal year that started April 1, a rating agency said.

Premium hotels, a category that includes five-star and four-star properties, are feeling most of the pain, according to a report from India Ratings & Research, a Fitch Ratings Inc. firm. They get about two-thirds of their business from corporate and foreign travelers.

“The demand slowdown has put pressure on occupancy and average room rate across major cities,” the report said, limiting hotels’ ability to pass along rising costs due to inflation.

India currently has around 100,000 hotel rooms in what is called the “organized” sector (which excludes myriad smaller and often cheaper properties), as well as an additional 85,000 to 90,000 rooms being built. Weak demand has led many hotel companies to delay new projects and even shelve 40% to 50% of new-hotel construction proposals due to the slumping business, rising financing costs and increase in construction costs, Chandan Sharma and Salil Garg, analysts at Indian Ratings, said in the report.

via Weak Economy Means There’s More Room at India’s Hotels – India Real Time – WSJ.

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02/05/2014

Philanthropy: China’s Carnegie | The Economist

“THE problem of our age is the proper administration of wealth,” wrote Andrew Carnegie in 1889. More than a century later, the citizens of supposedly Communist China could hardly disagree. Carnegie, one of the wealthiest men of America’s Gilded Age, soon set about giving his money away, and on April 24th Jack Ma, one of the wealthiest men of China’s Gilded Age, suggested he would start to do the same. Mr Ma and Joseph Tsai, co-founders of Alibaba, an online marketplace, announced the creation of philanthropic trusts that could be worth as much as $3 billion. “Somebody has to do something,” says Mr Ma of China’s environmental and health-care problems. “Our job is to wake people up.”

It is easy to be cynical about this. The gift is a move taken straight out of a Silicon Valley public-relations playbook, ahead of Alibaba’s expected initial public offering this year, which could value the company at $150 billion. But it could still have a remarkable effect not just on China’s fast-expanding class of super-rich, but also on its government.

China’s wealthy are a notoriously stingy lot. When two of America’s best-known philanthropists, Bill Gates, who has advised Mr Ma, and Warren Buffett, visited the country in 2010, a meeting they held was notable for the number of Chinese tycoons who stayed away. Of 122 billionaires around the world who have signed the Giving Pledge promoted by Messrs Buffett and Gates, promising to give away half their wealth by the end of their lives, not a single one is Chinese, even though China now has 358 billionaires, one-fifth of the global total.

The main reason for this is fear: many have made their money in the shadows of a supposedly socialist country, so few of China’s rich are keen to identify themselves publicly. China’s princelings, related to the leadership, are often the least enthusiastic of all, especially when the regime of Xi Jinping, China’s president, is condemning corruption, albeit selectively. Having made his money more publicly, Mr Ma may be an exception, but his foundation still adds pressure on other Chinese tycoons. Mr Xi should help, by publicly applauding Mr Ma and by making all donations tax-deductible.

It is also a prompt for Mr Xi to promote civil society. With its countryside teeming with poor children needing education and old people needing health care, the regime has decided to give non-governmental organisations (NGOs) more freedom to operate, under party scrutiny. Mr Xi needs to let them play a larger, more independent role. This highlights the party’s central dilemma: it is scared of allowing independent groups of citizens to flourish and help solve problems, and yet that is exactly what China needs. As long as civil society is kept weak, China’s social problems will get worse. Passing a new charity law, stalled for years, to clarify charities’ legal status would be a useful step in the right direction.

The question for Mr Ma is how far he is prepared to nudge the regime in this direction. His public stance is, sensibly, that he wants to work with the government, not confront it. But the areas he is likely to focus on—education, health care and the environment—matter enormously, and technology can spur political change. Mr Ma recently launched kits for smartphone users to crowdsource data on poor water quality across China, a sly dose of insurrection. Carnegie became famous not just for the money he gave away and the example he set to other philanthropists, but for the way he prompted the American government to embrace education, civic programmes and social reform. Mr Ma’s money and example can do the same for China, if only the Communist Party will allow it.

via Philanthropy: China’s Carnegie | The Economist.

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02/05/2014

Agriculture: Bring back the landlords | The Economist

CHINA’S Communist Party has always had a problem with big landowners. In Communist culture, they are synonymous with evil. In January on the country’s most-watched television show—a gala at lunar new year—viewers were treated to a scene from a Mao-era ballet featuring young peasants fired with zeal for revenge against a despotic rural landlord. Some critics rolled their eyes about such a throwback to the party’s radical past, but few complained about the stereotyping of landowners. Yet when it comes to letting individual families control large tracts of farmland, Communist Party leaders are beginning to have a change of heart.

Since January last year the term “family farm” has come into vogue in the party’s vocabulary. It refers not to the myriad tiny plots, each farmed by a single family, that are characteristic of the Chinese countryside; but to much larger-scale operations of a kind more familiar elsewhere, such as Europe or America. The trigger for this was the term’s use in a Communist Party directive known as “document number one”, the name traditionally given to the party’s new-year policy pronouncement on rural issues. It said the consolidation of household plots into family farms should be given “encouragement and support”.

On his first trip outside the capital after being appointed prime minister in March last year, Li Keqiang visited a 450-hectare (1,110-acre) family farm in the coastal province of Jiangsu. He said that boosting production was impossible on the tiny plots that most rural households farm (the average is less than half a hectare). “It can only be done through concentrating the land into larger farms”, Mr Li said. With more government support, “the earth could yield gold”, he told residents; a notion that would surprise the 260m people who have left the countryside to work in cities over the last three decades. Many villages are now home mainly to the elderly and left-behind children. During a visit to Switzerland two months later Mr Li again stopped by at a family farm (of a more modest 40 hectares). Chinese media said he wanted to pick up tips from Europe’s “advanced experiences” in running them. Chen Xiwen, a senior party policymaker on rural affairs, was even quoted as saying last year that he would like China to have vast “family farms like America’s”, but that he was worried about the impact on rural employment if farmland were to be managed by so few hands.

As is often the case whenever party policy appears to shift in the countryside, reality on the ground had long been changing before official rhetoric began to catch up. (Peasants started dismantling Mao’s disastrous “people’s communes” before the party began formally doing so in 1982.) The exodus from the countryside has allowed entrepreneurial farmers to build up their holdings by renting land from neighbours who no longer need it. They have not been able to buy it since all rural land is owned “collectively” by villagers. But they have been allowed to take over the right to farm it, and keep any profits. The party does not harp on about evil landlords of yore, since the new big-farmers are, legally speaking, merely tenants. In March last year the agriculture ministry took its first survey of family farms, though it has yet even to define the term precisely. It found there were already 877,000 of them, with an average size of around 13 hectares. They covered 13% of China’s arable land. Since 2008 the area of farmland rented out to other farmers has more than tripled.

via Agriculture: Bring back the landlords | The Economist.

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02/05/2014

Chinese College Grads Choose Jobs Over More Study – Businessweek

As China’s college students prepare for graduation, more are aiming to join the job market than ever before.

Job seekers in Hong Kong

More than 76 percent of those surveyed say they plan to begin working immediately after graduation, up from 73.6 percent last year and 68.5 percent in 2012. Meanwhile, about one-fifth say they will continue with higher education and 4 percent plan to start their own businesses.

That’s shown in an annual survey by Zhaopin.com, one of China’s largest job-seeking websites, which was released on April 15. Zhaopin canvassed more than 52,000 college students across China, 70 percent of which were in their final year as undergraduates, with the remainder being graduate students.

via Chinese College Grads Choose Jobs Over More Study – Businessweek.

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02/05/2014

Leaked Comments From Top Property Developer: China Is Built Out – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Spring hasn’t sprung for China’s chilly housing market and it may not for some time, a high level executive with the country’s largest real-estate developer said in rare remarks leaked online.

A glut of apartments and tightness in the credit market don’t bode well for property developers, said Mao Daqing, vice chairman of China Vanke.

A Chinese flag flies in front of a residential building developed by China Vanke Co., in the Fangshan district of Beijing. Bloomberg News

“Overall, China has reached its capacity limit for new construction of housing projects, only some coastal third- and fourth-tier cities have potential for capacity expansion,” Mr. Mao, who oversees the firm’s Beijing operations, said at a closed door meeting in Beijing on Wednesday (in Chinese). “As to whether there is room for home prices to rise, I don’t see any possibility for a rise in home prices, especially in cities with large housing inventory, unless the government pushes out another few trillion (in stimulus).”

China Vanke Beijing confirmed that Mr. Mao provided an analysis of the housing market in a private event, but added that there were no official transcripts.

Housing sales fell 7.7% in the first quarter this year, and remained sluggish in April, according to private sector estimates.

There is a glut of homes in China’s second-tier cities and some third- and fourth-tier cities due to oversupply of land, Mr. Mao said, highlighting cities like Tangshan, Shenyang and Wuxi. There is insufficient demand as there are not enough new migrants moving into these cities, and with the rich preferring to buy homes in major cities like Beijing.

Any developer who invests in Tangshan, an industrial city east of Beijing, is walking into a trap, he said.

China Vanke, which has a presence in more than 60 Chinese cities, earlier this weak reported a rare year-on-year slide in net profit in its first quarter results.

Mr. Mao also raised some red flags in tier-one cities such as Beijing and Shanghai as well. While demand from end-users is still strong in such cities, he said, land values — seen as a measure of a potential property bubble — are too high. He said land prices were accelerating faster than housing prices in the capital as a result of government efforts to containing prices of new homes there.

He went on to compare land values in Beijing with those in Japan and Hong Kong just before bubbles in those cities burst.  Tokyo’s total land value in 1990, prior to the property bust there, was equal to 63.3% of U.S. GDP in 1990, he said. During the Hong Kong bubble in 1997, land values there reached 66.3% of U.S. GDP

In 2012, the total land value in Beijing was 61.6% of U.S. GDP, “which is a scary number”, Mr Mao said.

via Leaked Comments From Top Property Developer: China Is Built Out – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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02/05/2014

Maybe China’s Currency Isn’t Undervalued After All – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Note to rest of the world: Stop bugging China on undervaluation of its currency.

The World Bank’s re-estimation of global pricing is leading to a second day of questioning of economic verities. Yesterday, a number of publications used the new numbers to pronounce that the U.S. would next year lose its century-long ranking as the world’s number one economy. (China Real Time came to a more nuanced—and skeptical—conclusion.)

Today, two economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, perhaps the world’s top econ think tank, used the numbers to conclude that the Chinese yuan was no longer undervalued, as it has been for decades.

“This estimate is of potential historic significance,” conclude Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian. “The end of Chinese mercantilism—and relief for the rest of the world—may be in sight,” they write in a Peterson blog post.

To review, the World Bank re-estimated the size of different economies using a calculation known as purchasing power parity (PPP), which tries to estimate relative wealth by looking at differing prices in different countries for the same goods or services. Such comparisons usually show that developing countries aren’t as poor as they seem.  For instance: A haircut in Beijing costs far less than a haircut in Boston, which means the wealth of a Chinese person with a full head of hair –- let’s call him Mr. Wang—is greater than usually understood.

Cheaper in China: haircuts. Not cheaper: iPhones, BMWs and other imports. Reuters

But Mr. Wang doesn’t buy things in PPP; he buys them using actual currency. When he leaves the hair salon and buys an import, say a U.S. iPhone or a German car, his yuan are converted into dollars or euros at the current exchange rate. Given that Chinese earn far less money than Americans or Germans on average, exchange rate comparisons accentuate the gap between developing and developed nations. Most comparisons of international power are done using the prevailing exchange rate, not PPP.

Now, back to the value of the yuan.

Messrs. Kessler and Subramanian use the new PPP calculations to estimate that between 2011 and March 2014 China’s per-capita GDP grew about 13 percentage points faster than the U.S., which they say should translate into a currency appreciation of around 3.2%. Since the actual appreciation was 7%, that suggests the yuan appreciated too rapidly during that period and made up for some of the time when the yuan didn’t strengthen rapidly enough.  “The renminbi in 2014 is thus fairly valued,” they conclude.

Any estimate of a currency’s valuation is a black art. Different economists use different methods and come up with different conclusions, especially if there isn’t an obvious undervaluation or overvaluation.

It’s hardly surprising that many countries accuse the others of deliberately undervaluing their currencies, and use estimates of currency valuation to make their point. Nearly every government has the same strategy for growth — export more — and a cheap currency helps exporters.

via Maybe China’s Currency Isn’t Undervalued After All – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

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01/05/2014

How Women Lost Out as China’s Property Market Boomed – Businessweek

In 2005, Zhang Yuan and her husband bought an apartment in Beijing for $30,000. Seven years later, in 2012, the same apartment was worth $317,000. Zhang, a professional woman in her 30s, and her husband both contributed money to the down payment and mortgage payments. Only her husband’s name appears on the property deed.

Beijing's central business District is home to high-end housing

At the time the young couple bought their home, Zhang wasn’t thinking much about legal formalities. Men—still regarded as the ostensible heads of households in China—have commonly registered property in their own names.

Since China’s Supreme Court issued a new interpretation of the country’s Marriage Law in 2011, Zhang’s has had second thoughts. The law now stipulates that if a couple divorces and only one person’s name is on the deed, that person—usually a “he”—walks away with full ownership of the marital home.

Since she took two years off work to care for her young child, Zhang has had trouble climbing back onto the career ladder. Today she worries more about money—and her financial dependence on her husband.

According to a 2012 Horizon Research and IFeng.com survey of homeowners in China’s leading cities, men’s names appear on property deeds for marital homes 80 percent of the time, while women’s names appear on just 30 percent of them. “The law is so unfair to women,” Zhang told sociologist Leta Hong Fincher, author of a new book, Leftover Women: The Resurgence of Gender Inequality in China.

The upshot, as Fincher’s book argues, is that China’s women have a claim that is tenuous, at best, to the country’s burgeoning real estate wealth. “Chinese women have largely missed out on what is arguably the biggest accumulation of residential real-estate wealth in history, valued at around 3.3 times China’s [gross domestic product], according to figures from the bank HSBC,” she writes. “That amounted to over $27 trillion at the end of 2012.”

via How Women Lost Out as China’s Property Market Boomed – Businessweek.

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01/05/2014

China’s Income-Inequality Gap Widens Beyond U.S. Levels – Businessweek

The gap between China’s rich and poor is now one of the world’s highest, surpassing even that in the U.S., according to a report being released this week by researchers at the University of Michigan.

The metric used in these studies, the Gini coefficient, would be zero in a society in which all income is equally distributed, while a score of one would reflect a society in which all income is concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Over a three-decade period starting in 1980—shortly after China’s economic reform and opening commenced—the Gini coefficient has grown from 0.3 to 0.55 in 2010.

In the U.S., by contrast, the index reads 0.45. Anything over 0.50 is considered “severe disparity,” says the report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The authors used data from seven separate surveys conducted by a number of Chinese university-affiliated organizations, including Peking University’s Institute of Social Sciences.

via China’s Income-Inequality Gap Widens Beyond U.S. Levels – Businessweek.

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